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### Viewing cable 08MADRID537, SPAIN: TURMOIL WITHIN THE PARTIDO POPULAR--CAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MADRID537 | 2008-05-14 08:15 | 2010-12-03 12:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Madrid

`

    VZCZCXRO3816
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHMD #0537/01 1350815
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 140815Z MAY 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4764
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 3420

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000537

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018
    TAGS: PGOV SP
    SUBJECT: SPAIN: TURMOIL WITHIN THE PARTIDO POPULAR--CAN
    RAJOY HOLD ON?

    MADRID 00000537 001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: CDA Hugo Llorens for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (U) Two months after suffering a second straight defeat at
    the hands of President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero,
    opposition Partido Popular (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy finds
    himself in the midst of a crisis that threatens the future of
    his party leadership. In the days following the March 9
    general election, Rajoy announced that he would remain the PP
    leader--reminding Spanish citizens that Jose Maria Aznar lost
    two elections to Felipe Gonzalez before finally winning in
    1996--and received the public support of nearly every senior
    party official. Rajoy then took steps to soften the party's
    tone and remake it in his own image, in an attempt to dilute
    the influence of Aznar. To that end, he eased out
    Congressional spokesman Eduardo Zaplana and Secretary General
    Angel Acebes and announced he would be taking the party in a
    new direction.

    ¶2. (U) The cracks in PP unity began to show on April 7, when
    Madrid Regional President (U.S. governor equivalent)
    Esperanza Aguirre refused to rule out a challenge to Rajoy at
    the upcoming party conference in June. The potential for a
    challenge to Rajoy's leadership was a major news story in
    Spain for the next several days, with some in the PP even
    discussing the feasibility of conducting a U.S.-style primary
    system to choose the party's next leader. Rajoy and his
    supporters tried to douse any speculation of a leadership
    change, but the crisis has not gone away. More wood was
    added to the fire on May 12 when the popular PP leader in the
    Basque Country, Maria San Gil, announced that she would not
    serve again on the committee drafting the party's political
    program because she no longer had confidence in Rajoy or his
    team. Immediately after this announcement, senior party
    officials including Aguirre, Acebes, Madrid Councilwoman (and
    wife of President Aznar) Ana Botella, and former Aznar
    Interior Minister Jaime Mayor Oreja, expressed their support
    for San Gil's decision and called on Rajoy to reflect on the
    current turmoil within his party. For the first time since
    the March 9 elections, we are now hearing serious speculation
    that Rajoy may not be able to hold on to power.

    ¶3. (C) During the week of May 5 (in the middle of the
    controversy over the future of Rajoy's leadership but before
    the uproar caused by the San Gil announcement), the Charge
    d'Affaires held separate meetings with Gustavo de Aristegui,
    PP Congressional Spokesman for Foreign Affairs, and Jorge
    Moragas, PP Director of International Relations and a key
    Rajoy advisor. Aristegui was very critical of Rajoy's
    actions in the wake of the electoral loss, saying that he
    seemed to be blaming everyone but himself for the results.
    He said Rajoy's actions to force out Zaplana and Acebes and
    bring in a new team were akin to the captain of a ship, not
    only abandoning ship, but leaving his crew in the sinking
    vessel. Aristegui said that Rajoy's lack of loyalty to those
    who had been with him all along was not sitting well with
    other PP leaders. He opined that Rajoy needed to open up the
    June party conference and allow all interested officials to
    present their candidacy for PP leadership. He said that if
    Rajoy was able to defeat challengers in a fair and open
    process, his leadership would no longer be questioned.
    Aristegui said that Rajoy may be able to maintain control
    beyond the June convention, but opposition to his leadership
    would grow if the PP does poorly in the next rounds of
    Spanish regional elections in the Basque Country (currently
    scheduled for April 2009) and Galicia (June 2009). It should
    be noted that Aristegui perhaps feels personally betrayed
    since Rajoy has clearly demoted him in the party's foreign
    policy circles.

    ¶4. (C) As expected, Moragas was more upbeat in his comments
    to the Charge and, while acknowledging that there were
    currently concerns about Rajoy's leadership, predicted that
    the party would eventually fall back in line. He said that
    in the coming weeks Rajoy would attempt to remain above the
    fray and look towards the next four years in opposition by
    issuing position papers on topics such as the economy,
    security, and regional issues. He said that President
    Zapatero and his Socialist government were in for a very
    rocky way ahead with the economy continuing to tank and key
    issues in Catalonia and the Basque Country coming to a head.
    He said it is more vital than ever for the party to remain
    united and seize the moment when Zapatero stumbles. Moragas
    said that he and Rajoy developed a close working relationship
    during the campaign and that he is now one of Rajoy's closest
    advisors. He added however that he was not a "Rajoy guy,"
    but rather a loyal party member who responded when asked to
    serve.

    //COMMENT//

    MADRID 00000537 002.2 OF 002

    ¶5. (C) Rajoy does not posses great charisma, and many were
    surprised when former President Aznar hand-picked him as his
    successor in 2003. Many more were surprised when Rajoy did
    not bow out five years later after a second straight
    electoral loss. We believe Rajoy owes his longevity as much
    as anything to the lack of a credible successor within his
    own party. Would-be challengers such as Esperanza Aguirre,
    Madrid Mayor Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon, or Valencia Regional
    President Francisco Camps all have their own drawbacks, and
    none enjoys the national stature of Rajoy (and both
    Ruiz-Gallardon and Camps appear to still be backing Rajoy).
    However, a groundswell of opposition may be building. Maria
    San Gil's public criticism of Rajoy's leadership was
    certainly noteworthy, but maybe more so is the number of
    senior PP leaders coming out of the woodwork to express
    solidarity with her, and to call on Rajoy to seriously
    respond to the current unease among the party faithful.
    Rajoy may hold onto power for the time being due to the lack
    of a viable alternative, but we agree that further losses in
    Spain's regional elections over the next two years will make
    it difficult for him to remain the PP's national candidate in
    ¶2012. PP leaders have traditionally been members of Congress
    due to the visibility afforded and the need for the
    opposition leader to be able to confront the sitting
    president directly in weekly debates, but some credible
    voices are mentioning the name of former IMF director and
    past Spanish Vice President Rodrigo Rato (now in the private
    sector) as a possible candidate to lead the party into the
    future.
    Llorens

`