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### Viewing cable 08BOGOTA4261, URIBE THIRD TERM SETBACK: 2010 REELECTION REJECTED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BOGOTA4261 | 2008-11-26 22:47 | 2011-04-29 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bogota
Appears in these articles: http://www.semana.com/wikileaks/Seccion/168.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #4261/01 3312247
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 262247Z NOV 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5773
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA IMMEDIATE 8531
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS IMMEDIATE 1370
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA IMMEDIATE 6784
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA IMMEDIATE 2727
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO IMMEDIATE 7472
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE

` `

    id: 180401
    date: 11/26/2008 22:47
    refid: 08BOGOTA4261
    origin: Embassy Bogota
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination: 08BOGOTA4201
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #4261/01 3312247
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 262247Z NOV 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5773
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA IMMEDIATE 8531
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS IMMEDIATE 1370
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA IMMEDIATE 6784
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA IMMEDIATE 2727
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO IMMEDIATE 7472
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004261

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO
    SUBJECT: URIBE THIRD TERM SETBACK: 2010 REELECTION REJECTED
    IN FIRST CONGRESS VOTE -- 2014 REELECTION APPROVED

    REF: BOGOTA 4201

    Classified By: Acting Political Counselor David M. Zimov
    Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    SUMMARY
    -------
    ¶1. (U)  The First Commission of the Colombian House of
    Representatives rejected in a razor thin vote on November 26,
    a proposal to change the constitution to allow President
    Uribe to run for a third term in 2010.  The Commission later
    approved language that would allow Uribe to seek reelection
    in 2014.  The votes in First Commission--the first of four
    votes in Congress required to pass a referendum
    proposal--followed intense lobbying against immediate
    reelection from the opposition and Cambio Radical Party
    leader German Vargas Lleras, and the last minute abstention
    of two key coalition members critical of Uribe's management
    of a recent pyramid scheme collapse.  In the wake of the
    setback, Uribe's supporters announced they will try to change
    the proposal language again in upcoming congressional debates
    to allow a 2010 run.  Still, the legality of such a maneuver
    remains questionable, and could be time consuming or
    challenged in court.  Barreras told us the First Commission
    vote makes immediate reelection in 2010 more unlikely--though
    still possible.  End summary.

    CONGRESS VOTES AGAINST 2010 THIRD TERM--FOR 2014
    --------------------------------------------- ---
    ¶2. (U) The First Commission of the Colombian House of
    Representatives on November 26, voted against a proposal to
    hold a referendum to change the constitution to allow
    President Alvaro Uribe to run for a possible third term as
    president in 2010.  In a razor thin vote of 17-16, the First
    Commission rejected the immediate reelection language.  The
    Commission then immediately voted 29-4 in favor of different
    referendum language to allow a possible 2014 run, in the
    first of four votes in Congress that would be needed to move
    the referendum forward.  If passed in all four votes, the
    revised 2014 measure would then move to the Constitutional
    Court for approval, and finally to a referendum requiring a
    majority--with a required 25% turnout of registered voters
    (approximately 7.2 million).

    ¶3. (C) Representative Nicolas Uribe announced that supporters
    of an immediate Uribe reelection would again try to modify
    the referendum language in the second congressional vote (in
    the full House in early December) to allow for immediate
    reelection.  Representative Oscar Arboleda, who favors
    immediate reelection, told us coalition members could legally
    modify the language in subsequent debates.  Still, Barreras
    and  Second Commission Secretary General Emiliano Rivera told
    us such a maneuver would probably be illegal, and could
    require time consuming Constitutional Court review if
    challenged.  Barreras said the Commission vote made immediate
    reelection more unlikely, though not impossible since Uribe
    supporters in Congress will look for creative ways to reverse
    the Commission vote.

    ¶4. (C) Barreras told us there was no pressure from the Palace
    to vote for the 2010 measure, but intense pressure from
    Cambio leader German Vargas Lleras to oppose immediate
    reelection.  Barreras said he met with President Uribe on
    November 20, pleading with Uribe to publicly state his third
    term intentions.  When Barreras asked Uribe how he should
    vote, Uribe refused even in private to state whether he was
    interested in a third term--whether in 2010 or 2014.
    Barreras said Uribe and Interior Minister Fabio Valencia
    Cossio (the GOC's main lobbyist in Congress) were "completely
    absent" from the third term debate.

    ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, Barreras said Vargas-Lleras--who has
    already begun his own presidential campaign--publicly
    threatened to sanction Barreras for not supporting Cambio's
    position against a third term in 2010.  Barreras told us
    Vargas offered other swing voters (especially Rep. Edgar
    Gomez) "anything they wanted" to kill the referendum.   Gomez
    was later absent from some votes with a "medical problem."
    Separately, both the Inspector General (Procuraduria) and
    National Election Council have begun investigations into the
    signature collection process that began the referendum

    process.  The media is reporting that collapsed pyramid
    scheme company DMG may have supported the effort.

    URIBE INSIDERS PESSIMISTIC ON 2010 RUN
    --------------------------------------
    ¶6. (C) Presidential Communications Advisor Jorge Mario
    Eastman told us Uribe had not decided whether to run again,
    nor had he instructed Secretary of Government Bernardo Moreno
    or Interior Minister Valencia to lobby Congress to pass the
    constitutional amendment required.  Uribe Advisor Bernardo
    Moreno, who is under investigation for his contact with
    former Congresswoman Yidis Medina (convicted of accepting
    bribes during the first reelection effort), was not
    authorized to get involved without Uribe's instructions.
    Eastman said the amendment effort was being directed by U
    Party Secretary General Luis Giraldo and presidential advisor
    Jose Obdulio Gaviria.

    ¶7. (C) Eastman told us he had been pessimistic that Congress
    would pass a constitutional amendment allowing Uribe to run
    in 2010.  Cambio Radical opposed the measure and the U Party
    lacked influence.   Members of Congress remained focused on
    trying to extract concrete benefits from the presidency in
    exchange for votes on political reform and the referendum.
    The danger, Eastman said, was that no one had started to
    develop a process to select a unified Uribe coalition
    presidential candidate if Uribe did not run in 2010.  Uribe
    continues to believe there is a capable successor within the
    coalition.

    URIBE CONFIDANT URGES URIBE NOT TO RUN
    --------------------------------------
    ¶8. (C) Separately, Uribe confidant Fabio Echeverri told us he
    urged Uribe to step down in 2010 and to set up a foundation
    that would advocate for democracy and free markets in the
    hemisphere.  Echeverri--who has known Uribe since childhood
    and managed his two previous presidential campaigns--told us
    he opposed a second Uribe reelection because it would
    endanger Uribe's legacy as well as his health.  Moreover,
    Colombia needed a break from Uribe's frenetic governing
    style.

    ¶9. (C) Echeverri added that Uribe also had the luxury in his
    first two terms of focusing on one issue--security.  The
    current problems facing Colombia, including the economic
    slowdown and financial crisis, were not Uribe's forte.
    Echeverri said he has explained his opposition to reelection
    to Uribe on several occasions.  Uribe had listened, but had
    not given a clear signal of his intentions.

    "UNFAVORABLE CLIMATE" FOR THIRD TERM
    ------------------------------------
    ¶10. (C) Jorge Londono, head of leading Colombian polling firm
    Invimar-Gallup, told us the third term effort was moving
    ahead at a difficult time for Uribe.  By the first quarter of
    2009, Londono expects the slowing economy and financial
    crisis, the collapse of a series of large pyramid schemes,
    and scandals over alleged extrajudicial killings by the
    military to cut into Uribe's approval ratings.

    ¶11. (C) Eastman added that Uribe and his Cabinet remained
    worried over the pyramid scheme crisis, especially the fall
    of the largest of the schemes, DMG (reftel).  Polo Party
    President Carlos Gaviria told us DMG--which Eastman said "was
    winning the public relations battle" over the GOC--had used
    the media to turn many previous Uribe supporters against the
    president in regions like Putumayo where security used to be
    "the only issue."  Eastman added that the GOC needed to move
    fast to limit the damage from the DMG scandal.  Two
    Conservative Party coalition members of the First Commission,
    previously rock solid supporters of a 2010 Uribe reelection,
    abstained on the vote due to constituent protests against
    Uribe's management of the pyramid crisis.
    BROWNFIELD

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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