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### Viewing cable 10OTTAWA49, Transforming the Canadian Forces: The Spirit is Willing...

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10OTTAWA49 | 2010-02-04 15:58 | 2011-05-12 13:30 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Ottawa

Appears in these articles:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsnight
http://www.bbc.com/news/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9483790.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13378567
http://www.greenpeace.org.uk
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/news-and-blogs/campaign-blog/new-wikileaks-revelations-shed-light-on-arcti/blog/34736
http://www.thenation.com/blog/160631/wikileaks-news-and-views-blog-thursday-day-166
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/05/12/the-battle-over-greenlands-oil/
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5ihhnQuXHwVOFswGcLlhFwiCs9gRQ?docId=6832936
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jchSEXNkbkPvlAB4mJOcmsY2WddA?docId=CNG.4232f6ae19eb54c58c9d35b7f0b4995b.861

`

    VZCZCXRO6319
    RR RUEHSL
    DE RUEHOT #0049/01 0351608
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 041558Z FEB 10
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0336
    INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
    NATO EU COLLECTIVE
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000049

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS
    NOFORN
    STATE FOR WHA/CAN,  EUR/RPM, AND INR
    AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
    AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG
    AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC
    AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO APP WINNIPEG

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/04
    TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR CA
    SUBJECT: Transforming the Canadian Forces: The Spirit is Willing...

    REF: 08 OTTAWA 649; 09 OTTAWA 196; 10 OTTAWA 29

    CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Bellard, Political Minister Counselor,
    Department of State, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

    ¶1. (C/NF) Summary.  The Canadian Forces are severely stretched and
    the ambitious goals set by the Canada First Defence Strategy
    continue to encounter delays and budget constraints that will limit
    the scope of the projected transformation of the forces.  The
    government of Prime Minister Harper may refocus available military
    resources closer to home, at the expense of future expeditionary
    missions such as Afghanistan, despite concern that Canada's
    influence on the world stage will diminish significantly
    post-Afghanistan.  End summary.

    ""Canada is Back"" - or is it?

    ¶2.  (C/NF)  The ruling Conservative Party of Canada under Prime
    Minister Stephen Harper has made military modernization a core
    campaign pledge in its successful 2006 and 2008 elections, while
    failing to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons in
    either election.  The party's slogan of ""Canada is back""
    nonetheless resonated well with voters, and pride in the Canadian
    Forces (CF) is high, despite declining support for Canada's combat
    mission in Afghanistan, now slated to end in 2011 according to the
    terms of  a March 2008 House of Commons bipartisan motion.

    ¶3. (C/NF)  The ambitious ""Canada First Defence Strategy"" (CFDS),
    first announced in May 2008 (ref b), was designed to increase the
    readiness of the CF by providing greater resources for training and
    maintenance, as well modernizing CF equipment with USD 15.4 billion
    in major new procurement programs.  Parliament approved CN 5.2
    billion in July 2009 to renew the army's fleet of land combat
    vehicles, after the Chief of the Land Staff, Lt. General Andrew
    Leslie, publicly claimed that the army was at its breaking point
    and might need to take a one-year operational break at the
    conclusion of the Afghanistan mission.  High casualty rates among
    Canadian Forces in Afghanistan had been attributable in part to
    inferior armored vehicles and the absence of helicopter medivac for
    wounded soldiers.  General Leslie subsequently retracted his
    one-year time-out proposal, citing successes in procurement of key
    items, including helicopters.

    ¶4. (C/NF)   According to media reports, leaked documents from the
    Department of Public Works and Government Services to the
    Department of National Defence (DND) recently announced that a
    multi-billion dollar purchase of Close Combat Vehicles (CCV) for
    the army had been put on hold.  This is the latest in a string of
    delays, setbacks, and shifting budget priorities that have beset
    the government's plan to transform and modernize the CF.  These
    delays in procurement and shifts in priorities come at a time when
    the Canadian Forces are severely overstretched by missions in
    Afghanistan and Haiti as well as  major security operations in
    support of the Vancouver 2010 Olympics.  There is speculation that
    the CCV program was put on hold in part because some within DND see less need for it now, given the impending end of the Afghanistan
    mission.  DND is reportedly scrambling to find over CN 400 million
    in savings in order to fund other, higher priority projects.

    ¶5. (C/NF)  The CFDS had also pledged major purchases of C-17
    strategic and C-130J tactical airlift aircraft, as well as CH-47
    Chinook helicopters, 1300 medium-sized logistic trucks (down from
    an earlier goal of 2300), and Joint Support Ships and Arctic
    Offshore Patrol Ships for the Navy. The latter program is an
    example of a requirement driven by political rather than military
    imperatives, since the Navy did not request these patrol ships.
    The Conservatives have nonetheless long found domestic political
    capital in asserting Canada's ""Arctic Sovereignty"" (ref c).  On the
    positive side of the CFDS ledger, the C-17, C-130J, and CH-47

    OTTAWA 00000049  002 OF 002

    procurements have been executed.  The C-17s have been delivered,
    and C-130J and CH-47 programs are underway.  The first C-130J
    delivery to Canada will occur in May 2010.

    ¶6. (C/NF) Severe budgetary constraints are likely to continue to
    plague CFDS programs.  The strategy was predicated on a steadily
    increasing funding stream over a 20-year period, which is likely to
    prove unsustainable.  Personnel costs constitute 52 percent of the
    CF's budget.  While this figure is lower than some other NATO
    militaries, it limits funds available for R&D and equipment
    purchases.

    Manpower issues

    ¶7.  (C/NF)   Manpower and recruitment targets set by CFDS have been
    steadily revised downward.  The latest goal is to increase the size
    of the regular forces from the current 66,000 to 70,000 and the
    reserves from 25,000 to 30,000.  Even the most optimistic
    projection predicts an increase of 1000 personnel each for the
    regular forces and the reserves by 2011-12, for a total force size
    of 95,000.   However, current rates of attrition, especially within
    the NCO ranks, remain high (over 9 percent in 2008-9), and
    recruitment continues to lag behind target figures.  The present
    overstretch within the CF is such that troops recently rotated out
    of Afghanistan are being reactivated for deployment to Haiti, even
    though the units were in their mandated 12 months of  ""dwell time""
    between deployments.  Cuts in intake of new recruits were announced
    at the end of the year as part of the DND effort to cover budget
    shortfalls.  Training of those recruits who do join is constrained
    by the deployment to Afghanistan of experienced NCOs devoted to
    training the Afghan Security Forces.

    ¶8.  (C/NF)  According to LTG Angus Watt, former Chief of the Air
    Staff, there are currently only 1350 trained and available pilots
    of a desired manning figure of 1600 in late 2008; he lamented this
    ""pipeline air force.""  While the Air Force has made some progress
    in closing this gap, the immediate demands of the Haiti mission
    meant there were insufficient numbers of trained pilots available
    to fly the airlift missions required for the next rotation of CF
    units into Afghanistan, potentially reducing the operational
    effectiveness of the CF.  Depending upon its duration and scope,
    the Haiti relief mission could exacerbate the already-high
    operational tempo of the forces, contributing to strains on
    personnel and potentially worsening the attrition problem.

    Comment

    ¶9. (C/NF)   PM Harper has set an assertive course for Canadian
    foreign policy, declaring that ""Canada is back"" on the world scene.
    However, his ambitions for Canada may exceed his grasp, however, as
    changes in demography, economic constraints, difficulties in
    procurement, and competing priorities combine to limit his
    government's ability to achieve this sweeping military
    transformation.  The effect is likely to be that military resources
    will be redirected,  defending ""sovereignty"" in the Arctic and
    other Canadian interests, at the expense of future post-Afghanistan
    expeditionary missions.  Senior Canadian military officials as well
    as media pundits have already begun to express concern at a likely
    loss of Canada's influence with the U.S. and NATO after the end of
    Canada's Afghanistan mission, but so far this concern does not
    appear to be on the Prime Minister's or the Conservative Party's
    radar scope.
    JACOBSON

`