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### Viewing cable 09HAVANA197, SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL LEE/KILPATRICK

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09HAVANA197 | 2009-03-31 11:33 | 2011-02-04 21:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | US Interests Section Havana

`

    VZCZCXYZ0004
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHUB #0197/01 0901133
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 311133Z MAR 09
    FM USINT HAVANA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4282

` `

    UNCLAS HAVANA 000197

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OREP PGOV PREL PINR CU
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL LEE/KILPATRICK

    REF: HAVANA 195

    CORRECTED COPY - CHANGES MADE TO PARA 5 BELOW. THIS MESSAGE
    REPLACES REFTEL, WHICH SHOULD BE DESTROYED.

    ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Codel Lee/Kilpatrick will be arriving in
    Cuba at a time of slow motion and sometimes contradictory
    change. Raul Castro has now consolidated his power. The
    Cuban economy has many serious weaknesses that can only be
    addressed through bold, innovative, and immediate action.
    There is, however, no indication that the current government
    intends to take such action. End Summary

    CHANGES IN CUBA

    ¶2. (SBU) Following cabinet and other leadership changes in
    early March of this year, the ruling inner circle is now made
    up entirely of individuals who are known for their loyalty to
    Raul Castro and/or their experience as military officers.
    The result is a much older governing group, but one which is
    likely to respond well to Raul Castro when he demands greater
    discipline and efficiency within the government and society
    alike. The reforms already announced by the Raul Castro
    government, and any more that are expected in the short term,
    will likely follow an already established pattern. They
    will tend to decentralize activities and devolve decision
    making tasks to the provincial and municipal levels. To the
    extent possible they will reduce the number of steps that
    need to be taken within the government to achieve a desired
    goal. They will not, however, seek to change the fundamental
    nature of the current Cuban system of state control over the
    means of production and distribution. As such, they are
    unlikely to be able to address the contradictions within the
    system which tended to make it inefficient in the first
    place. Execution of policy will be decentralized, but
    development of policy will remain the sole purview of the
    inner governing circle. Fidel Castro continues to wield
    significant moral authority through his occasional
    "Reflexiones" pieces in the official press. Many of these
    pieces appear to be more of a hindrance to action by the GOC
    under Raul than of any support. The true state of Fidel's
    health is unknown. The next possibility for change in Cuba
    may come with the Sixth Communist Party Congress which is
    supposed to take place later in 2009. If Raul has any real
    reforms up his sleeve, the PCC Congress may give him the
    political legitimacy to carry them through.

    ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SITUATION

    ¶3. (SBU) Economically, Cuba is not being affected directly
    by the world financial crisis since it does not participate
    in the world financial network in any significant way.
    However, the subsidiary effects of the financial crisis will
    probably begin to be felt later in 2009, as revenues from the
    sale of Cuba's principal export product--nickel--remain weak
    as world demand for stainless steel and other products
    requiring nickel declines. The world financial crisis will
    also probably hit Cuba's tourism sector hard as Europeans in
    particular have less to spend on foreign travel. Finally,
    the steep decline in the price of petroleum will make it more
    difficult for Cuba's primary patron state, Venezuela, to
    continue to subsidize Cuban petroleum needs or provide other
    financial support. Each one of these problems alone would
    create a significant challenge for the GOC, but added to them
    the effects of the three major hurricanes that struck Cuba in
    late 2008 and caused damage estimated at almost 20 percent of
    GDP must be considered. The GOC has not been able to do
    anything significant to repair the damage done by the
    hurricanes. Cuba's already poor credit history keeps it
    from attracting the financing necessary to carry out
    hurricane repair work and advance the economy at the same
    time, especially in a world atmosphere of much tighter
    credit. The GOC under Raul has shown no inclination to open
    up the moribund political system in Cuba. Civil society
    groups continue to try to organize, but effective GOC
    repression of their activities keeps them on the margins.

    FOREIGN POLICY

    ¶4. (SBU) GOC foreign policy has focused on a largely
    successful effort to build support for its position vis a vis
    the U.S. government among other countries in the world,
    especially among the Europeans and Latin Americans.
    Regarding the U.S. itself, at the moment the GOC appears to
    be taking a wait and see attitude about the Obama
    administration. The GOC may hope for some adjustments in
    U.S. policy toward Cuba that will make its life easier, but
    it should not be expected to initiate any positive steps in
    that direction.

    ¶5. (SBU) We have taken several steps to broaden contacts
    with the people of Cuba. In addition to the legislated
    changes on travel signed into law by the President, Cuba is
    being included for the first time in two scholarship programs
    for study in the United States. We also have offered to
    relax the travel restrictions on our respective interest
    sections, and await a GOC response.
    FARRAR

`