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### Viewing cable 10STATE9565, S/REL UK) ARGENTINE REACTION TO POTENTIAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10STATE9565 | 2010-01-29 21:20 | 2010-12-01 21:30 | SECRET | Secretary of State

`

    VZCZCXYZ0017
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHC #9565 0292126
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    R 292120Z JAN 10
    FM SECSTATE WASHDC
    TO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 0583
    INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 9064

` `

    S E C R E T STATE 009565

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2035
    TAGS: PINR ENRG EPET MCAP PBTS AR UK
    SUBJECT: (S/REL UK) ARGENTINE REACTION TO POTENTIAL
    FALKLAND ISLANDS OIL EXPLORATION (C-TN9-01234)

    Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS

    ¶1. (S/REL UK) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
    DEVELOPMENTS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY CONCERNING POTENTIAL
    OFFSHORE OIL EXPLORATION AROUND THE FALKLAND ISLANDS AND THE
    POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR ARGENTINA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM
    (UK). IN APRIL 2009, BUENOS AIRES SUBMITTED TERRITORIAL
    CLAIMS TO THE UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION ON THE LIMITS OF THE
    CONTINENTAL SHELF THAT INCLUDED THE UNDERSEA AREAS
    SURROUNDING THE FALKLAND ISLANDS. IN RESPONSE, LONDON, IN MAY
    2009, SUBMITTED ITS OWN CLAIMS IN THE AREA. IN OCTOBER 2009,
    UK FIRM DESIRE PETROLEUM REPORTED THAT IT SIGNED A CONTRACT
    WITH A U.S. FIRM FOR A DRILLING RIG THAT COULD COMMENCE
    OPERATIONS BEGINNING IN FEBRUARY 2010.

    ¶2. (S/REL UK) ANALYSTS ARE INTERESTED IN GAUGING
    ARGENTINA'S POTENTIAL RESPONSE TO OIL COMPANIES BRINGING A
    DEEP WATER RIG FOR OIL EXPLORATION OFFSHORE OF THE FALKLAND
    ISLANDS. GIVEN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA,
    IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARGENTINA MIGHT USE THE PROSPECTIVE OIL
    EXPLORATION IN THE REGION AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO ASSERT ITS
    CLAIMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING IT AND USE
    A BELLICOSE STANCE AS A WAY TO DISTRACT THE ARGENTINE
    POPULACE FROM ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AT HOME. ANALYSTS WOULD
    APPRECIATE REPORTING ON THE ISSUE WHICH WOULD HELP ANALYSTS
    ANTICIPATE ARGENTINA'S RESPONSE TO OIL EXPLORATION OFF THE
    FALKLAND ISLANDS, INCLUDE POSSIBLE MILITARY ACTIONS.

    ¶3. (U) AS TIME, RESOURCES, AND PRESENT WORKLOAD PERMIT, ANY
    INFORMATION POST CAN PROVIDE ON THE QUESTIONS BELOW WOULD BE
    GREATLY APPRECIATED. MANY THANKS.

    ¶A. (S/REL UK) PLEASE REPORT ON ANY ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT OR
    MILITARY OFFICIALS' DISCUSSIONS ABOUT PLANNED ACTIONS, ALONE
    OR IN CONCERT WITH REGIONAL ALLIES LIKE VENEZUELA, IF AN
    OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG BEGINS TO DRILL OFFSHORE THE FALKLAND
    ISLANDS. ARE ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AWARE OF
    POTENTIAL OFFSHORE DRILLING, OR WILL THEY BE SURPRISED WHEN
    IT IS ANNOUNCED OR HAPPENS?

    ¶B. (S/REL UK) ARE THERE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE ARGENTINE
    GOVERNMENT OR MILITARY LEADERSHIP ABOUT A POSSIBLE RESPONSE?
    ARE THERE INDICATIONS THAT THIS CAN POTENTIALLY ESCALATE INTO
    ANOTHER MILITARY CLASH WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM?

    ¶C. (S/REL UK) WHAT DO ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
    PERCEIVE TO BE THE COST OF SUPPORTING A BELLICOSE MOVE AS
    OPPOSED TO SIMPLY IGNORING THE EVENT?

    ¶4. (U) PLEASE CITE C-TN9-01234 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
    REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
    CLINTON

`