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### Viewing cable 08LISBON1012, PORTUGUESE OPPOSITION SEEKS NEW LEADER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08LISBON1012 | 2008-04-26 08:42 | 2010-12-12 21:30 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Lisbon

`

    VZCZCXRO8729
    RR RUEHBW RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHLI #1012 1170842
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 260842Z APR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6784
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001012

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PO
    SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE OPPOSITION SEEKS NEW LEADER

    Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

    ¶1. (C) Summary. In the race to lead the major center-right
    party, the able and unifying Manuela Ferreira Leite faces the
    polarizing but canny Pedro Santana Lopes. Santana Lopes, a
    former party leader and Prime Minister, has a significant
    faction behind him, but his widely disparaged government
    makes many party faithful wish to look elsewhere. Ferreira
    Leite's broad appeal, both in the party and with the overall
    electorate, makes her the legitimate favorite. End summary.

    Heading
    ------
    ¶2. (C) After six months on the job, leader of the
    center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) Luis Filipe
    Menezes resigned his position April 17. Menezes was never
    able to repair the internal party divisions resulting from
    his own successful 2007 challenge to former leader Luis
    Marques Mendes, nor was he able to demonstrate a viable
    challenge to the Socialist Party government led by Prime
    Minister Jose Socrates.

    ¶3. (U) Candidacies to replace him have been muddled by
    conflicted loyalties and overlapping support factions within
    the party. Party number two Rui Rio, Mayor of Porto, refused
    to present a candidacy which cleared the way for Manuela
    Ferreira Leite, a former Minister of Education and of Finance
    and a technocrat with broad appeal. She is a protege of
    President Cavaco Silva, who is Portugal's most popular
    politician and she is broadly respected for her intellect and
    experience.

    ¶4. (C) One of Ferreira Leite's strengths is that she had
    refused to serve in the short-lived and widely disparaged
    government of Pedro Santana Lopes in 2004-5. Santana Lopes
    himself, however, is expected to declare his candidacy for
    the May election in the coming days. Santana Lopes is
    everything Ferreira Leite is not: a life-long politician,
    aggressive and confrontational. Also, as a former leader and
    Prime Minister, Santana Lopes has a grip on a strong faction
    within the party, despite having led the PSD to its
    worst-ever defeat in 2005. Santana Lopes' political career,
    written off by many, was revived recently when Menezes named
    him leader of the PSD bloc in the National Assembly.
    Ironically, Menezes did so in an attempt to smooth over
    internal party divisions.

    ¶5. (C) There are three other declared candidates, including a
    parliamentarian and former youth leader running on a platform
    of "change", the deputy leader of the PSD parliamentary bloc,
    and a successful entrepreneur, although none of the three are
    considered viable candidates. Party insiders tell us the
    former youth leader is hoping to raise his profile, while
    both he and the deputy parliamentary leader harbor hope to
    emerge as a compromise candidate, should Ferreira Leite and
    Santana Lopes battle to a standstill. The entrepreneur, who
    cheerfully admits he might not gather enough signatures in
    time to be an official candidate, hopes to keep debate
    focused on basic center-right party principles rather than
    political posturing or personal attacks. Nonetheless, he too
    hopes to be a compromise candidate, given his extensive
    experience in business, government, and academia.

    ¶6. (U) In addition to Rui Rio, several other major party
    figures chose not to present candidacies. Menezes allegedly
    implored Madeiran President Alberto Joao Jardim to stand, but
    Jardim refused and endorsed Santana Lopes. Many observers
    viewed former Minister of Justice Jose Pedro Aguiar Branco as
    a serious candidate, but he refused to stand because he
    favors Ferreira Leite. Neither Marques Mendes nor Menezes is
    challenging for the leadership, although some believe that
    Menezes might still return to the fight.

    Comment
    -------
    ¶7. (C) It is essentially a choice between the able and
    unifying Ferreira Leite or the polarizing but canny Santana
    Lopes. Neither is charismatic, but that is not seen as a
    particular hindrance in Portuguese politics. As leader of
    the PSD bench, Santana Lopes faces Prime Minister Socrates on
    a daily basis, but has made no noticeable headway against
    him. Ferreira Leite would be a much more formidable PSD
    leader in the 2009 general elections due to the broad respect
    she commands across the electorate, but she will need to
    navigate the party leadership election without drawing too
    much blood to have that chance. Santana Lopes is tainted
    with the stench of defeat, so we expect the party to turn to
    Ferreira Leite. Whoever wins will have the challenge of
    turning the PSD into a credible alternative to the PS and
    Prime Minister Socrates, who remains the least unpopular of
    major party leaders.
    Stephenson

`