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### Viewing cable 08PARIS2212, FRENCH SAY SYRIA DELIVERING ON ALL FRONTS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08PARIS2212 | 2008-12-05 18:18 | 2011-02-25 00:00 | SECRET | Embassy Paris
Appears in these articles: http://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/250211/boris-boillon-selon-les-cables-wikileaks-vantard-et-pas-toujours-compet

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    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
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    FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4992
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

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    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002212

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2028
    TAGS: PGOV PREL FR
    SUBJECT: FRENCH SAY SYRIA DELIVERING ON ALL FRONTS

    REF: A. PARIS POINTS OF DECEMBER 5
    ¶B. DAMASCUS 863

    PARIS 00002212 001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Kathleen H. Allegrone, reas
    ons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (S) Summary: "We think Syria is delivering on the key
    dossier," French Presidency Advisor for the Middle East Boris
    Boillon said December 5, as he recapped his November 30 visit
    to Damascus with Presidency Secretary General Claude Gueant
    and NSA-equivalent Jean-David Levitte. In contrast to his
    colleagues at the MFA (ref A), Boillon predicted that Syria
    would name an ambassador to Beirut by the end of the year,
    although he conceded that the Syrians might delay until the
    first few days of January "just to show that they are
    independent." Such a delay would not begin to affect the
    relationship unless it extended beyond President Sarkozy's
    January 6 visit to Lebanon and, even more gravely, beyond
    Lebanese President Michel Sleiman's state visit to Paris in
    March. He added that Lebanese diplomat Michel Khoury has
    been tapped to be Lebanon's ambassador to Syria. Boillon
    agreed with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's argument that
    Sleiman should not run an independent bloc of candidates in
    Lebanon's parliamentary elections on the grounds that
    Lebanon's president should remain above politics. In a
    startling admission, al-Asad tacitly acknowledged that he is
    not preventing arms from transiting Syria to Hizballah,
    although the French read his comment as an indication that
    Syria would end weapons shipments if it were to conclude a
    peace agreement with Israel. Boillon said the French team
    encouraged the Syrians to be transparent with the IAEA,
    adding that it would be "catastrophic" for Syria's dispute
    with the IAEA to escalate. End summary.

    Syria Earns a Passing Grade
    ---------------------------

    ¶2. (S) The French Presidency believes Syria is earning a
    passing grade on the benchmarks set by President Sarkozy this
    summer, according to Middle East Advisor Boris Boillon. "We
    think Syria is delivering on the key dossier," Boillon said
    during a December 5 meeting with PolMinCouns and NEA Watcher.
    Recapping his November 30 visit to Damascus with Presidency
    Secretary General Claude Gueant and NSA-equivalent Jean-David
    Levitte, Boillon claimed that President al-Asad had assured
    his guests that Syria was on track to open an embassy in
    Beirut and exchange ambassadors with Lebanon by the end of
    the year. "What's the exact deadline?" Syrian FM Muallim
    reportedly asked, obliging the French diplomats to point out
    that the end of the year was commonly understood to be
    December 31. Boillon conceded the possibility that the
    Syrians -- who are "very stubborn" -- might deliberately miss
    the deadline by a day or so "just to show that they are
    independent and are not being forced to do anything." Such a
    delay was of no consequence. If, however, the Syrians had
    not named an ambassador by January 6, when Sarkozy will visit
    French troops serving with UNIFIL, the French would see
    matters in a very different light. In that event, President
    Sleiman's state visit to Paris in March would likely serve as
    a red line, beyond which the relationship would be subject to
    as-yet-undetermined cooling measures. Nevertheless, the
    upbeat Boillon seemed to view this possibility as remote and
    noted that Lebanon has tapped Lebanese diplomat Michel Khoury
    to represent Beirut in Damascus, and said the GOF is
    encouraging the GOL to announce Khoury's appointment as soon
    as possible so as to deprive the Syrians of any pretext for
    not naming their own ambassador.

    ¶3. (S) Despite the lingering question marks on the timeline
    for the ambassadorial exchange (as reported Ref A, the MFA is
    decidedly more pessimistic), Boillon emphasized that the
    French give al-Asad credit for having established a new and
    better atmosphere with Lebanese officials. In point of fact,
    he said that al-Asad seems to have a genuine respect for his
    new Lebanese counterpart and has become notably warmer in his
    meetings with other Lebanese leaders.

    ¶4. (S) Turning to other benchmarks, such as progress on
    border security/demarcation and on the return of missing
    Lebanese prisoners held in Syrian jails, Boillon said al-Asad
    claimed to have made progress on all. "We take a somewhat
    more nuanced view," said Boillon, who freely admitted that
    there had been no meaningful progress on any of those areas.
    However, he said Sarkozy's priority had always been the
    exchange of ambassadors: once that is completed, the French
    would focus on the other benchmarks in 2009 and push for
    concrete results.

    Opposing Sleiman's Electoral Bloc
    ---------------------------------

    PARIS 00002212 002.2 OF 003

    ¶5. (S) Al-Asad told the French that it would be a mistake for
    President Sleiman to form an independent bloc of candidates
    to run in the upcoming parliamentary election, since the
    confessional nature of the Lebanese polity requires the
    President to remain above the political fray. Boillon
    indicated that the French fully agreed with this reasoning.
    "We interpret (Michel) Aoun's visit to Damascus as a message
    from al-Asad to Sleiman that he should not try to set himself
    up as the leader of Lebanon's Christian community," said
    Boillon. In addition, the French also agreed with al-Asad's
    view that whatever the outcome of the parliamentary
    elections, Lebanon should again form a national unity
    government.

    Israel and Hizballah Arms
    -------------------------

    ¶6. (S) The Syrian President indicated he was willing to
    re-engage in peace talks with the Israeli government.
    Indeed, al-Asad suggested his goal would be to take the talks
    as far as possible while PM Olmert remains in office, since
    progress would presumably be more difficult if a right-wing
    Israeli government were to come to power in 2009. Asked
    point-blank whether Syria would end its support of Hizballah
    in exchange for Israeli territorial concessions on the Golan
    Heights, al-Asad made a somewhat astonishing statement, which
    Boillon paraphrased as: "For the moment, I am not playing the
    role of policeman with regard to the arms that are going
    through Syria to Hizballah. But I understand Israel's
    security requirements." While al-Asad's comment is a tacit
    admission that he is aware of, and facilitates, arms
    shipments to Hizballah, the French interpreted it in a
    positive light. His meaning, said Boillon, was that in
    exchange for peace with Israel, al-Asad would be willing to
    turn off the arms flow to Hizballah.

    Nuclear Questions
    -----------------

    ¶7. (S) The French asked the Syrians whether they had pressed
    the Iranians on the need to cooperate with the IAEA. Al-Asad
    betrayed some annoyance with Iran, saying the only high level
    Iranian to visit Damascus in recent months was FM Mottaki,
    whom the Syrians dutifully encouraged to "accept
    international controls." However, al-Asad stressed that he
    did not want to carry any more water for the French on this
    issue, both because he believed Iran has a right to
    enrichment and because he found the P5 1 offer illogical
    since it was based upon offering the Iranians an end-state
    (no enrichment capability) that the Iranians have explicitly
    rejected. "He seems to have been affected by Iran's
    propaganda," mused Boillon. As for Syria's own troubles with
    the IAEA, al-Asad vehemently denied that the Al-Kibar site
    had been a nuclear installation. The French counseled
    transparency, warning that the IAEA was "like a pitbull" and
    adding that if the Syrians came clean with the IAEA as Libya
    had done, France would try to be helpful. However, Boillon
    noted that the French do not want to make Syria's IAEA
    Technical Project (i.e., the feasibility/site study)
    contingent upon such transparency. "If we take too hard of a
    line on the Technical Project, then the Syrians may pull back
    into their shell and turn again to Iran," said Boillon.
    PolMinCouns pushed back against this reasoning, but it was
    evident that Boillon had convinced himself that escalating
    pressure on Syria at the IAEA would be a mistake. Seeing
    Syria's relations with the IAEA devolve into a bitter
    standoff the way that Iraq's and Iran's had would be "a
    catastrophe," he maintained.

    ¶8. (S) Comment: That President Sarkozy's advisors are
    inclined to give the Syrians the benefit of the doubt on the
    exchange of ambassadors and other questions is no surprise:
    although the French insist that they fully understand the
    duplicitous nature of the Syrian regime, they have invested a
    great deal of Sarkozy's political capital into building
    bridges to Damascus and will tolerate a fair amount of
    elasticity so long as the relationship can be billed as a
    success. What is somewhat more troubling is the extent to
    which Boillon seemed to view Lebanese domestic politics
    through SARG-tinted glasses. While we defer to our
    colleagues in Beirut and Damascus for an authoritative
    analysis, al-Asad's professed concern for office of the
    Lebanese presidency strikes us as less probable than his fear
    that Sleiman's bloc would strip votes away from the
    pro-Syrian March 8 opposition. Likewise, the insistence on a
    national unity government (which the French see as essential
    for Lebanon's stability) might also be seen as a means of
    essentially depriving the March 14th movement of any victory
    it might achieve at the ballot box. Such a convergence of
    views, coupled with President Sleiman's emergence as France's
    preferred Lebanese interlocutor (notably, Boillon made not a

    PARIS 00002212 003.2 OF 003

    single reference to PM Siniora, but his may also be in
    keeping with Sarkozy's preference of dealing directly with
    what he sees as his counterparts rather than with prime
    ministers), suggests that our conversations with the French
    about Lebanon and Syria are not going to get any easier in
    the short run.

    STAPLETON

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    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4992
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    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

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