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### Viewing cable 10MEXICO202, U.S.-Mexico Relations: Progress in 2009, Challenges in 2010

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10MEXICO202 | 2010-01-21 21:42 | 2011-03-02 12:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/la-relacion-eu-mexico-mas-fuerte-que-nunca

`

    VZCZCXRO5086
    OO RUEHCD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #0202/01 0212143
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O R 212142Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0131
    INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM PETERSON AFB CO
    RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

` `

    244771
    2010-01-21 21:42:00
    10MEXICO202
    Embassy Mexico
    UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

    VZCZCXRO5086
    OO RUEHCD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #0202/01 0212143
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O R 212142Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0131
    INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM PETERSON AFB CO
    RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 000202

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS
    AMBASSADOR FOR THE SECRETARY
    SENIOR ADVISOR ALEC ROSS
    WHA A/S VALENZUELA AND DAS JACOBSON
    AID ADMINISTRATOR SHAH
    NSC RESTREPO AND BRENNAN
    DOD/OSD STOCKTON
    NORTHCOM CDR GENERAL RENUART
    DHS ICE ASST SEC MORTON AND ASST SEC BERSIN
    DEA A/ADMINISTRATOR LEONHART
    DOJ ASSISTANT ATTY GEN BREUER
    COMMERCE ITA U/S SANCHEZ

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MASS ECON SNAR PHUM MX
    SUBJECT: U.S.-Mexico Relations: Progress in 2009, Challenges in 2010

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The U.S.-Mexican bilateral relationship has
    never been stronger.  We ended 2009 with an unprecedented
    commitment from the Mexican government to work closely with us on
    an ambitious effort to move beyond a singular focus on high value
    targets and address some of the institutional and socio-economic
    constraints that threaten to undermine our efforts to combat the
    cartels.  A truly joint effort to implement a new U.S.-Mexico
    strategy is yielding stronger organizational structures on both
    sides and a deeper understanding of the threat posed by the drug
    trafficking organizations.  In the coming year, we will help Mexico
    institutionalize civilian law enforcement capabilities and phase
    down the military from street patrols, for which it has neither
    legal authority nor training.  A new dialogue on human rights with
    the Mexican government and a defense bilateral working group will
    reinforce that effort and help modernize the military.

    ¶2. (SBU) As we institutionalize the security agenda we will also
    need to give more attention to the economic and social agendas.
    Efforts to strengthen mutually beneficial competitiveness in 2010
    will focus on identifying new cross border production
    opportunities, spurring innovation, building a modern 21st century
    border, and supporting an energy and environment agenda that is a
    top priority for the Calderon administration and offers huge
    potential for future investment and economic development.  Our
    economic recovery and Mexico's go hand in hand, and U.S. export-led
    successes are depending increasingly on partnering with Mexico's
    manufacturing capability.  At the same time, we will have to
    resolve the lingering trucking dispute and other trade irritants
    while using carefully targeted and limited assistance to spur
    additional spending on poverty alleviation by the Mexican
    government, the IDB and the World Bank.  End Summary

    Some Operational Success

    ¶3. (SBU) Several successful operations by the Mexican government
    against well known drug lords over the last month reflect both the
    progress we are making in strengthening our bilateral relationship
    and the challenges we face to expand those gains in 2010.  The
    Merida assistance money is flowing despite misleading public
    reports -- 700 million in equipment and technology will be
    delivered under Merida through 2010 plus more in technical
    assistance and training -- and it is helping to deepen law
    enforcement capabilities and translate critical intelligence into
    more effective operations.  The challenge is to use effectively the
    capabilities we are creating.

    ¶4. (SBU) The integration of intelligence and operations is
    improving.  A failed operation in mid-December to capture Beltran
    Leyva led to a brutally honest exchange with the Mexican
    authorities. The following week Mexican Special Forces conducted a
    well executed operation to track down Beltran Leyva.  The week
    before the Federal Police ran another operation launched from
    Brownsville, Texas into Matamoros.  Still, the drug traffickers are
    not resting, as demonstrated by the tragic killing of the family of
    a Mexican marine who participated in the raid on Beltran Leyva.
    Senior Mexican officials, including President Calderon, have told
    the Ambassador personally that they are not backing off, and if
    anything Mexican resolve is stronger.

    Political Context

    ¶5. (SBU) That resolve has to be seen in the context of Calderon's
    political challenge.  His numbers have dropped over the last year
    but remain above fifty percent, in keeping with a Mexican tradition
    of strong popular support for the President.  He scores well for
    his toughness and determination but economic worries still dominate
    the electorate and on these issues he scores somewhat lower.  This

    MEXICO 00000202  002 OF 005

    explains a new ordering in his public statements that is putting
    jobs and recovery slightly ahead of the fight against DTO's.  That
    will actually support our efforts to broaden our approach and help
    address some of the socioeconomic issues that are feeding into the
    organized crime problem.  Some of the other areas that we will be
    working on - legal reform and our zero tolerance for violence with
    citizen groups - will offer some inroads for delicate discussions
    with the government on messaging, which at times forgoes themes of
    modernization and rule of law for more sensational images which
    confuse the public.

    Expanded Vision

    ¶6. (SBU) The vision guiding our work is stronger, reinforced by the
    President's trip to Guadalajara in August, the Secretary's meeting
    with the Foreign Secretary Espinoza in September and nourished by
    the many high level visitors - NSC Director John Brennan, Deputy
    Secretary Lew, Undersecretary Otero, Assistant Secretary
    Valenzuela, DNI Blair, Assistant Secretary of Defense Stockton,
    Generals Renuart and Stutzreim and others - who visited Mexico in
    the last quarter of 2009.  We are no longer fixated on capturing
    high-value targets, even though that remains necessary.  Now we are
    moving to assess and penetrate the drug trafficking organizations
    (DTOs) as corporations, and to build the civilian institutions to
    enforce the rule of law.  This will require additional intelligence
    capacity, especially on tracking money flows.  We have an excellent
    cadre of interagency experts at post and DNI and the interagency
    are both engaged at senior levels.  We need to develop a
    comprehensive strategy to get at the DTO's money and not be driven
    by uncoordinated individual cases.

    Lowering Military Profile

    ¶7. (SBU) As a result of our expanded discussion, the GOM is looking
    for ways to lower the profile of the military in the cities along
    the border.  Our joint bilateral assessment missions to Tijuana,
    San Diego, Ciudad Juarez and El Paso, have helped with this and
    generated a new willingness to look at ways to strengthen the role
    of the police and local civilian authorities that will help
    reinforce the weak connection between the military's efforts in the
    cities and legal prosecutions.  In Ciudad Juarez, the military
    transferred its local command in the early part of 2010 to the
    federal police.  Already 1,600 federal police have deployed.  We
    are engaged with the Mexican authorities on new command and control
    arrangements.  The first stages will be messy, but this is a
    massive step forward, influenced by our attention to performance
    and human rights.  The goal is to develop civilian enforcement
    models that could help get the military into support functions.

    Looking at Socioeconomic Factors

    ¶8. (SBU) The new strategy is also encouraging the Mexicans to look
    at the poverty and marginalization of communities exploited by the
    drug trafficking organizations (DTOs).  For the first time, the GOM
    agreed to engage on a socioeconomic agenda targeted at communities
    to stop the flow of recruits to the DTOs.  Pilot projects in Ciudad
    Juarez and Tijuana could pave the way for other cities.  USAID has
    already had success with models to issue state and municipal bonds
    to support job creation and infrastructure.  But there is no means
    to align federal, state and municipal programs, budgets and
    policies into coherent community programs - a classic urban
    planning conundrum.  We are working out options to integrate urban
    planners, and perhaps to leverage funds from the DoD
    Counter-Narcotics budget.

    Human Rights and Community Engagement

    MEXICO 00000202  003 OF 005

    ¶9. (SBU)  We have not neglected legitimate concerns in Congress and
    the NGO community about missteps in the area of human rights.
    Recent decisions at the Inter American court and the appointment of
    new leadership at the Mexican National Commission on Human Rights
    have opened up new space for discussion and programmatic efforts
    that can help build transparency and reinforce legal protections.
    We have worked out the details of a new bilateral dialogue on human
    rights that will include the military, police and legal authorities
    that will be launched in early February.  We are consulting with
    the NGO's as well through a regular dialogue focused on a set of
    focused priorities aimed at improving the human rights situation in
    the future and opening up new avenues for information about past
    violations.  This work is delicate and it must not be presented or
    perceived as a vendetta against the Mexican military.  A parallel
    effort in a new bilateral defense working group, chaired on our
    side by DoD/OSD Assistant Secretary Stockton, will be working with
    the Mexican defense establishment on a broader agenda keyed to
    modernization.  NORTHCOM is also working on a human rights training
    program that will address issues of military justice, and look for
    ways to reinforce civilian protections in the military's doctrine
    and training.

    ¶10. (SBU) Another element of our human rights strategy is focused
    on citizen groups in an effort to build a national consensus that
    is unambiguous in its rejection of criminality and violence.  This
    effort was given a big boost by the Alliance of Youth Movement
    conference we held in October, which opened up new links with
    individuals, NGOs and other organizations using social networking
    media.  This began a promising project to get Mexican cell phone
    companies to make available free SMS messaging to "denounce" acts
    of violence with security tips.  The hot line project is moving,
    but details are still to be worked out: information has to get from
    cell phones to police stations anonymously and in real time; the
    police need to be trained to respond; public awareness and
    confidence needs to be built through a public information campaign;
    and NGOs will have to monitor performance.  We will need to engage
    community NGOs and the media to reinforce national efforts and U.S.
    experts will need a Mexican counterpart to run the local operations
    and carry this forward.  We have gotten critical support from
    Senior Advisor Ross and hope to bring together all of the pieces by
    the end of February.

    Unprecedented Cooperation

    ¶11. (SBU) The considerable progress on all these fronts would not
    be possible without the Mexican Government's commitment to work
    with us in a way that is unprecedented.  This is not only a huge
    step forward for our bilateral relationship but it is also helping
    to stimulate the creation of a genuine Mexican interagency
    coordination process.  The Mexicans have created a Deputies
    Committee.  They meet with our Embassy team and me at least every
    two weeks, and usually more often.  We have working groups on each
    of our strategic goals.  Assistant Secretaries in each program area
    have met at least twice to ensure that those with policy and
    implementation responsibilities engage directly.  At the end of
    January, NSC Director John Brennan and his Mexican counterparts
    will review our strategic plans in a joint Policy Coordination
    Group meeting that will launch the intensive work on implementation
    and prepare for possible senior level visits in 2010.

    Economic Agenda - Joint Competitiveness

    ¶12. (SBU)  As we institutionalize the security agenda, we will
    focus more on economic competitiveness and energy in 2010.  To
    date, macroeconomic recovery has absorbed 70% of the economic
    agenda and trade disputes have taken up another 25%, leaving only a
    small residual to advance Mexican and U.S. competitiveness in a

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    global economy.  It is striking that our major industrial and
    service groups cannot today produce globally competitive cars and
    tractors in the United States without integrating their production
    lines with Mexico.  We are working to document this - but the
    anecdotal evidence is profound.  While we may lose some jobs in
    some sectors to Mexican labor, on the whole we would lose more to
    other regions of the world if Mexico did not help us to reduce our
    production costs.  With Mexico's substantial portion of our imports
    and as an important destination for U.S. investment, improving
    Mexico's competitiveness is a mutually beneficial goal.  These are
    key areas where we will focus attention:

    --Modern Border:  We need to reconceptualize the border to extend
    it to transit hubs throughout Mexico and the United States, and
    move our security and customs operations to these decentralized
    points.  As long as border operations are limited to a geographic
    line between the United States and Mexico, we will be bound by
    physical space and infrastructure.  If we create multiple customs
    points in cities like Monterrey and Guadalajara, we can expand
    processing capacity and accelerate transit.  GPS technology will
    let us track trucks and trains to confirm that they do not get
    diverted and opened.  Only by moving in this direction can we
    shatter the physical stranglehold on our borders.

    --Resolve Trucking: We have to resolve our trucking dispute with
    Mexico.  Every study has shown that Mexican truckers on U.S. hauls
    have performed better than their U.S. counterparts.  Our block on
    transit flows from Mexico to the United States is hurting our
    industry, and if we do not fix this, it will lead to more tariffs
    under NAFTA against U.S. products.  With health care reform on the
    verge of passing, we need a high-level political push to get this
    issue on track.

    --Energy and Environment: The energy and environment agendas have
    huge potential, especially with Mexico hosting the next UN
    Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2010.  Already
    we are gaining traction on commercial investment in renewables.
    EXIM approved in December an $80 million guaranty for wind power to
    accompany $150 million in Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
    funds.  We will focus more on harmonized regulations and tariffs
    that will create the incentives for investment in Mexico that can
    supply renewable power north of the border and contribute to our
    renewable portfolio standards.

    --Poverty:  Squarely a Mexican responsibility, but a country of 113
    million with a 45% poverty rate on our border affects immigration
    flows, DTO recruits and prospects for internal stability in Mexico.
    Our community-based pilot programs on security provide an entry
    point to engage.  Small investments on our side will leverage
    billions from the Mexican budget, the IDB and World Bank.

    Comment

    ¶13. (SBU) These issues are hugely sensitive because they are at the
    heart of Mexico's sovereignty.  We will have to be sensitive to the
    special historical significance of 2010, the two hundred year
    anniversary of Mexico's independence and the centennial of its
    revolution.  The challenge will be to ensure that, at least as far
    as we are concerned, the commemoration draw from history but
    celebrate the future.  Our bilateral relationship has never been
    stronger or more mature.  Many of the old anti-American shibboleths
    are dead or dying, and the real political reform that many believe
    will happen in the near future will sweep away a number of  the
    remaining vestiges of the "Yankee go home" sentiment.  Our
    cooperation in 2010 can take us a long way to create the kind of
    partnership that will help us in regional and even global terms. We
    will need the resources and continued senior engagement in order to

    MEXICO 00000202  005 OF 005

    implement our comprehensive strategy and consolidate the gains we
    have achieved so far.
    FEELEY

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