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### Viewing cable 08SANJOSE5, ANOTHER CAFTA REFERENDUM GAMBIT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08SANJOSE5 | 2008-01-03 22:12 | 2011-03-02 16:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy San Jose
Appears in these articles: http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-02/Investigacion.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHSJ #0005/01 0032212
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 032212Z JAN 08
    FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9317
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO PRIORITY 1575
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000005

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC AND EEB; PASS TO
    USTR:AMALITO, DOLIVER

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: CS ETRD PGOV PINR PREL SENV
    SUBJECT: ANOTHER CAFTA REFERENDUM GAMBIT

    REF: A. A) 2007 SAN JOSE 2070 AND PREVIOUS

         ¶B. B) SAN JOSE-WHA/CEN EMAIL OF 12/31/07

    ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:   The Supreme Election Tribunal (TSE)
    accepted a petition to collect signatures for another
    CAFTA-related referendum, this one to ratify the UPOV (Union
    for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants) Convention and
    to approve related legislation.  The Convention and
    legislation must be approved as part of the GOCR,s overall
    CAFTA implementation package.  GOCR officials criticized the
    move as a politically-motivated delaying tactic, and
    reiterated the GOCR,s commitment to complete the full slate
    of implementing legislation by the March 1 EIF deadline.  The
    three environmental NGOs which filed the petition plan to
    collect the required 133,545 signatures as quickly as
    possible, but their efforts may be moot.  The TSE also
    announced that the next referendum cannot be convoked before
    July 7, 2008, which should give the GOCR more than enough
    time to complete the implementing legislation before then.
    Broader anti-CAFTA groups see the UPOV referendum as one more
    way to kill CAFTA, and the opposition PAC party may use the
    TSE ruling to justify further delaying tactics.  With

    SIPDIS
    sufficient discipline and focus in the legislature, the UPOV
    maneuver should not be more than a distraction for the GOCR.
     However, even without a new referendum, the legislature
    returns to work today facing considerable challenges to
    completing its CAFTA-related work on time.  END SUMMARY.

    ====================================
    ANOTHER YEAR, ANOTHER REFERENDUM?
    ====================================

    ¶2.  (U) On December 28, the TSE announced that it had
    accepted a petition filed by three local environmental NGOs
    to collect signatures for another CAFTA referendum, this one
    to ratify the UPOV (Union for the Protection of New Varieties
    of Plants) Convention and to approve related implementing
    legislation.  (The TSE actually ruled on December 21, but the
    story did not surface for one week.)  The UPOV Convention and
    related legislation must be approved as part of the GOCR,s
    overall CAFTA implementation package.

    ¶3.  (U) The few GOCR officials available for comment during
    the year-end holidays were critical.  Legislature President
    Francisco Pacheco told the media that the move was clearly a
    "delaying tactic designed to derail" CAFTA implementation,
    and a "discredit" to the October 7 overall CAFTA referendum.
    Vacationing in Guanacaste, Minister of the Presidency Rodrigo
    Arias told reporters the move was an "abuse" of the electoral
    system, adding that the UPOV issue was too technical to be
    dealt with in a referendum.

    ¶4.  (U) Both Pacheco and Arias reiterated the GOCR,s
    commitment to complete the full slate of implementing
    legislation, including the two UPOV-related items, by the
    March 1 EIF deadline and certainly before sufficient
    signatures are collected to launch a referendum.  Arias
    expressed hope that the GOCR would complete the legislation
    "in January or the first two weeks of February," a slip from
    the GOCR,s previous (and publicly-stated) internal deadline
    of 15 January.
    =============================
    NGOs ANXIOUS TO GET GOING . . .
    =============================

    ¶5.  (U) The NGOs which filed the referendum petition in
    November, led by the Costa Rican Federation for Environmental
    Conservation (FECON in Spanish), welcomed the TSE ruling.
    The text was posted on their websites and blogs long before
    the TSE released it officially.  The NGOs have vowed to
    collect the required signatures as rapidly as possible.  The
    Referendum Law allows up to nine months to do so, and at
    least 5 percent of the national voter registry, or 133,545,
    must be collected and validated before a referendum could be
    held.  (Referenda may be held by collection of signatures, by
    legislative action, or by a combination of executive and
    legislative action.  The latter mechanism was used to convoke
    the October 2007 CAFTA plebiscite.)

    ¶6.  (U) The NGO leaders (including Fabian Pacheco, son of the
    former president) hope to mobilize the grassroots "patriotic
    committees" which were active in the campaign to say "no" to
    CAFTA in October.  All three NGOs oppose UPOV on substantive
    grounds, largely out of concern that ratifying and
    implementing that Convention would "flood" Costa Rica with
    genetically-modified agricultural materials.
    ¶7.  (SBU) However, the broader anti-CAFTA groups (based on
    their web postings) see the UPOV referendum as one more way
    to kill CAFTA.  Signaling a possible opposition tactic in the
    legislature, PAC deputy faction head Madrigal has already
    publicly praised the TSE decision as another indication of
    the "deepening of democracy" in Costa Rica.  The PAC website,
    meanwhile, has regularly warned of the (genetic engineering
    and other) "danger" that might flow from hasty ratification
    of UPOV.  The PAC-led opposition therefore may try to block
    action on the two UPOV-related items, using the call for a
    new referendum as further justification to criticize the
    Arias administration and a &legitimate8 way to delay
    implementation further.

    ============================================= =
    . . . BUT IMPACT ON IMPLEMENTATION MAY BE LIGHT
    ============================================= =

    ¶8.  (U) The UPOV referendum maneuver may not have the impact
    sought by the petitioners (or the anti-CAFTA forces).  TSE
    President Luis Antonio Sobrado and Magistrate Max Esquivel
    have been quick to stress that the collection of signatures
    for a referendum does not impede the regular legislative
    process; both may proceed in parallel.  (According to the
    Referendum Law, the legislative process can only be stopped
    when the TSE actually convokes a referendum on the
    legislation in question; the TSE reiterated this in its
    December 21 decision.)

    ¶9.  (SBU) Going further, Sobrado emphasized that the UPOV
    referendum could not  be convoked before July 7, 2008 or take
    place before October 7, 2008, i.e., one year from the dates
    the CAFTA referendum was convoked and held.  (In other words,
    the TSE is interpreting the Referendum Law, which says only
    that one referendum can be held each year, to mean there must
    be one year between referenda.)   Under this reasoning, no
    matter how quickly the signatures were collected, the UPOV
    referendum could not be convoked before July, which would
    allow the GOCR ample time to complete all the implementing
    agenda, even if an EIF extension were requested, before any
    new referendum becomes relevant.

    ============================================= ====
    COMMENT:  CHALLENGES ENOUGH EVEN WITHOUT UPOV
    ============================================= ====

    ¶10. (SBU) We view another CAFTA-related referendum in Costa
    Rica in 2008 as unlikely, but not totally impossible.  With
    sufficient discipline and focus in the legislature -- the
    same ingredients that have been needed since the beginning of
    the CAFTA debate -- the GOCR should be able to withstand the
    combination of probable PAC opposition and likely NGO
    pressure to hold back the UPOV legislation for approval by
    referendum.  This latest development should light a fire
    under the Asamblea, which ended 2007 sick and tired of
    dealing with CAFTA.  For that matter, the Costa Rican public
    also ended the year under the assumption that their role in
    ratifying/approving CAFTA had been completed.  It may be
    difficult, therefore, for the opposition to drag CAFTA out
    for nine more months, but this doesn,t rule out their
    trying.  And, although we believe the NGOs pressed for the
    new referendum out of genuine (if misplaced)  concerns about
    UPOV, we can easily foresee domestic and international
    anti-globalists and anti-free traders jumping on this
    bandwagon to further their broader agenda.

    ¶11. (SBU) The legislature returns to work today facing
    challenges enough, even without the UPOV referendum maneuver.
     Eight items of implementing legislation are pending plenario
    action (a drop of one from our previous tally, Ref A), a 9th
    is in committee and a 10th has not been introduced.  Most/all
    of these will likely face review by the constitutional court.
     Among these items are the most politically controversial,
    including UPOV, IPR, and telecom and insurance sector reform.
     PLN faction chief Mayi Antillon and the legislature
    leadership has called for a return to the grueling 6 to 7
    days a week, three session per day pre-recess schedule, but
    the Asamblea may be reluctant to resume that pace quickly (if
    at all).  We will have a better sense of the GOCR,s and
    G38,s thinking for the new year once the major players have
    reported back to work.  Minister Arias,s comments while on
    vacation suggest that political and procedural realities may
    be slowing the GOCR,s ambitious legislative timetable.

    BRENNAN

`