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### Viewing cable 07ISTANBUL103, CALIK ON ASHGABAT LEADERSHIP

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07ISTANBUL103 | 2007-02-12 14:48 | 2011-05-12 12:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Istanbul

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIT #0103/01 0431448
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 121448Z FEB 07
    FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
    TO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT IMMEDIATE 0112
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6589
    INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 6100
    RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU PRIORITY 0008
    RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0049
    RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0337
    RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0202

` `

    UNCLAS ISTANBUL 000103

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EPET PGOV TX
    SUBJECT: CALIK ON ASHGABAT LEADERSHIP

    Classified by Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.5
    (b) and (d).

    ¶1.  (C) Ahmet Calik, Turkish oligarch and longtime Ashgabat
    insider, shared his views on Turkmen developments February 11
    in Istanbul with visiting SCA PDAS Mann.  We convey them as
    an additional window on Turkmen issues.

    ¶2.  (C) Calik has known interim President Berdimukhammedov
    since 1997 when the latter, as health minister, was making
    his first trip abroad to Israel via Turkey.  Calik
    accompanied him in Istanbul and Berdimukhammedov spoke no
    single word that was not on his printed talking points.
    Calik considered this either very smart or very stupid, and
    he now inclines to the former view.  In the succeeding years,
    they both resided in the same Ashgabat apartment building
    (one that Calik's construction firm built) and developed a
    closer acquaintance.  He considers Berdimukhammedov very
    intelligent and a master of detail.  He is rough on
    subordinates, though he may be compelled to change as
    president.  Asked who are his allies within the current
    leadership, Calik replied that there are no permanent ties,
    only shifting allegiances.

    ¶3.  (C) The current leadership configuration, Calik believes,
    consists of Berdimukhammedov, the defense minister, and the
    intelligence chief.  The defense minister, he asserted, is
    close to Russia, the intelligence chief less so, though this
    is not true of the his subordinates in the intelligence
    service, who are more influenced by Russia .
    Berdimukhammedov remains more distanced from Russian
    influence than the other two.  Rejepov, head of Presidential
    security, has put out the word that he plans to retire.  This
    information comes from Rejepov's son, who is employed by
    Calik.  Calik, though, is not ready to take this at face
    value; he believes Rejepov may be distancing himself from the
    current leadership maneuverings and looking toward a future
    role.  Power, he believes, rests with the army and the
    intelligence service.  Another key player to watch:  the
    Turkmen ambassador in Moscow, who Calik says is the main
    channel for conveying the Kremlin's views to the new
    leadership.  He considers this ambassador as a potential
    future president.

    ¶4.  (C) Calik stated that Berdimukhammedov's priorities are
    first, to stay in office, and then to address key
    deficiencies, notably education and health.  Turkmen
    agriculture is a major problem and Berdimukhammedov will want
    to tackle the problems of the money losing Soviet-style
    system.  Calik believes the Turkmen people had high
    expectations with independence, expectations which were then
    dashed by Niyazov's misgovernance.  If the national decline
    continues, it could lead to unrest, and Calik therefore
    recommends that the US push hard on reform at the onset of a
    new government but push in a way that does not isolate
    Berdimukhammedov.  The useful way to do this, he believes,
    would be to reach out through frequent senior visitors to
    Ashgabat and make clear to him the alternatives and the
    advantages that the United States can offer.  He advised
    outreach to the intelligence chief, who he believes is
    persuadable, and even to the defense minister.

    ¶5.  (C) On Turkmen energy, Calik believes that the sector is
    troubled, through underinvestment and the meager capabilities
    of the Chinese.  By way of example, he disclosed an incident
    that has thus far been kept close-hold within the Turkmen
    government, a fire that developed in late 2006 in the Yolotan
    gas field.  When local personnel were unable to control the
    fire, Niyazov requested Calik's assistance in bringing it
    under control.  Calik then consulted American specialists and
    prepared a work proposal; the minister of energy, however,
    sidelined the proposal in favor of Chinese efforts.  He
    stated that the Chinese have thus far proved unsuccessful and
    the fire continues.  Calik was particularly scornful of the
    minister of energy as corrupt and inept.  He warned that the
    Chinese have paid off both the minister and subordinate staff.

    ¶6.  (C) Calik agreed with the USG view that Turkmenistan has
    large unrealized gas export potential and he suggested that
    both a trans-Caspian pipeline and a trans-Afghan pipeline
    were feasible, though not simultaneously.  He expressed
    concern about Caspian delimitation impeding a TCP.  Mann
    outlined the USG view that delimitation was not a
    prerequisite for a pipeline and he described the talks on
    energy issues held by Assistant Secretary Sullivan and his
    delegation in Baku.  He advised Calik that the Turkish
    government must successfully address the transit tariff
    issue, in the first instance, with Azerbaijan, in order to
    achieve TCP development.

    ¶7.  (C) Calik will travel to Ashgabat for the inauguration as
    part of the Erdogan delegation.  Mann urged the Turkish
    delegation to reassure Berdimukhammedov that we do not expect
    him to change existing gas sales arrangements but that
    Turkmenistan should not undertake new commitments for
    development or export until it has had a chance to assess the
    issues fully and accurately and to discuss these with Turkey
    and the United States.  Calik endorsed the message and
    stressed that it would be unwise to press Berdimukhammedov
    for specific commitments at this early stage.  His advice:
    build a relationship, visit frequently, and continue to
    provide the new president with data and options.
    Berdimukhammedov may still be unsure in dealing with
    foreigners, and Calik thought it would not be unexpected for
    the president to divert meetings to his ministers until he
    gained greater sureness.

    ¶8.  (C) Comment:  Calik has been a player in Turkmenistan
    since independence and at one point in Niyazov's reign was
    termed the second most powerful man in the country.  He
    clearly is concerned about his fortunes with the new regime,
    in energy, construction, and textiles, and has a strong
    interest in confronting Russian influence and in being able
    to show the new leadership that he is influential with the
    Turkish and the American governments.  Calik was famously
    close-mouthed throughout the Niyazov years, so to speak at
    length and in detail on Ashgabat developments is a sign in
    itself of his concern.
    JONES

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