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### Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON725, DON BRASH NOT DOWN FOR THE COUNT - YET

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06WELLINGTON725 | 2006-09-14 19:00 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHWL #0725/01 2571900
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 141900Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3266
    INFO RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
    RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000725

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN

    STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
    NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
    SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU
    PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016
    TAGS: PGOV NZ
    SUBJECT: DON BRASH NOT DOWN FOR THE COUNT - YET

    REF A WELLINGTON 721 B WELLINGTON 690

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) National Party MPs insist they will stand by embattled leader
    Don Brash amidst controversy over his private life (REF A) and will
    continue to focus on the party's political agenda.  Despite the
    party's bravado, a prominent conservative political analyst believes
    that Brash's leadership has been undermined.  One reason the Nats may
    be propping up Brash is that with no consensus on an alternative, a
    fractious leadership contest could reverse the party's recent gains
    in the polls.  National seems to be banking that Labour's tactic of
    shifting attention away from its own scandals by alluding to Brash's
    private problems will prove counter-productive with fair-minded Kiwi
    voters.  But if Labour succeeds in raising questions about Brash's
    credibility they could force National's hand.  End Summary.

    Reaction within National
    ------------------------

    ¶2. (C) National's Deputy Director of Research tells us that the
    recent news about Brash's affair caused some initial panic among
    party ranks, especially junior members. Senior MPs quickly restored
    calm. National MP Chris Finlayson tells us the party is maintaining a
    'business as usual' mentality.  However, one party staffer told us
    some in National are concerned that Brash's alleged recidivist
    infidelity (his current marriage is a result of a previous
    extra-marital affair) could cost the party support, especially among
    women voters. (National is already relatively unpopular among women)

    ¶3. (SBU) Although PM Clark has declined to comment on the matter, the
    unveiling of Brash's affair seems to be part of Labour's efforts to
    deflect attention from National's claims that the Government
    illegally used taxpayer money in its reelection campaign (reftel).
    Days before the story broke, senior Labour MP Trevor Mallard had
    responded in Parliament to incessant National attacks on Labour's
    integrity and honesty by publicly alluding to Brash's alleged
    indiscretions.

    ¶4.  (C) National MPs are now trying to put the ball back in the
    Government's court by pointing out that Labour is breaking an
    unwritten convention in New Zealand politics: do not delve into the
    private lives of Parliamentarians.  Welfare spokeswoman Judith
    Collins tearfully expressed her rage at the breach of protocol during
    a radio interview earlier today.  National Party insiders tell us
    Brash has also e-mailed his MPs instructing them not address or react
    to any questions or insinuations regarding his private life.

    Too soon to talk of Brash's demise as leader?
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) Despite the Nats' public show of unity, Barry Gustafson, an
    analyst regarded as the chief historian of the National Party, told
    the media that Brash's grip on his party's leadership is seriously
    weakened because his strongest attribute - integrity - is now in
    question.  (This is the second time Brash's credibility has been put
    at risk, as he was earlier forced to admit that despite his denials
    he had met with Christian Breathren funders of his campaign.)  The
    media has reported that backbencher Brian Connell had during a caucus
    meeting questioned Brash's fitness for office. Some commentators
    speculate that Brash might fall on his sword and resign. However,
    Finlayson tells us Brash will try and work through the crisis. Deputy
    Leader Gerry Brownlee has publicly insisted this matter will not
    affect the party's leadership.

    No heir apparent, but contenders aplenty
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Many National MPs have been concerned for months that Brash
    has been relatively ineffective in fighting the Government.  Brash's
    resignation could move him gracefully out of the way and shut down
    Labour's efforts to draw attention to his affair.  So why are the MPs
    remaining loyal?  One reason is gratitude: many credit Brash for
    restoring the party's popularity after its nadir in 2002. The other
    is practicality: Brash has no clear successors. The last thing the
    party wants is division within its ranks, especially at a time when
    National is polling strongly and has the Government on the back foot
    over allegations of dishonesty. Any split in the party over who
    should become the next leader would put these achievements at risk.

    ¶7. (SBU) There are four commonly identified contenders for Brash's
    position. None are clear inheritors of the mantle.  Former leader
    Bill English has broad policy experience, yet still carries the scar
    of leading the party to its miserable election defeat in 2002.
    Finance spokesman John Key is frequently touted as a
    leader-in-waiting, yet many in the party reportedly believe he is too
    inexperienced and untested. Deputy Leader (now Acting Leader)
    Brownlee has leadership ambitions, but some commentators question his
    public appeal. Simon Power, the law and order spokesman, is highly
    ambitious and has also been tagged as a future party leader but lacks
    political gravitas. Not surprisingly, there is no caucus consensus
    around any of these candidates.
    Comment: Is Labour playing with fire?
    -------------------------------------

    ¶7. (C) The media's preoccupation with this matter will relieve Labour
    of some of the intense scrutiny it has received over allegations of
    misappropriation of public campaign funding (REF B) and other recent
    controversies. However, National's claims that the Government has
    broken the unwritten convention of keeping clear of MPs private lives
    may result in a public backlash against the Government.  Most Kiwis
    are reticent about their personal lives and virtually all see
    themselves as fair-minded and socially tolerant.  Nor will National
    voters likely turn against Brash for his marital indiscretions: the
    son of a minister, Brash has never played up his own moral rectitude.
     It's well known that his current wife was previously his mistress.

    ¶8.  (C) National's leadership is no doubt banking that it can carry
    the day by appearing a victim of Labour's unfair aggressions.  But
    the public may see Brash as dishonest, making it more costly to leave
    him in place.  This in turn could create a temptation for one or more
    of his ambitious potential successors to try to seize the reins.  End
    Comment.

    McCormick

`