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### Viewing cable 06BEIRUT2476, TFLE01: UNSYG PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BEIRUT2476 | 2006-07-26 16:47 | 2011-03-15 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Beirut
Appears in these articles: not yet set

`

    VZCZCXRO1989
    PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
    DE RUEHLB #2476/01 2071647
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 261647Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4796
    INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002476

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016
    TAGS: IS KPKO LE MOPS PBTS PTER
    SUBJECT: TFLE01: UNSYG PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE PEDERSEN
    SAYS DE-ESCALATION URGENTLY NEEDED

    Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

    SUMMARY
    --------

    ¶1. (C/NF) In a July 26 meeting with the Ambassador and
    econoff, UNSYG Personal Representative to Lebanon Geir
    Pedersen urged an immediate de-escalation to the fighting
    even if a cease-fire takes some time. He warned that the
    humanitarian situation and violence could spiral out of
    control in less than 14 days, including expansion of the
    geographic scope of the fighting. Pedersen suggested a
    de-escalation deal whereby Israel agrees to not attack
    targets north of the Litani River, while Hizballah agrees to
    stop launching rockets into northern Israel. This would
    leave a contained zone of conflict in southern Lebanon.
    Regarding the Israeli airstrike on a UN post, Pedersen said
    it was clearly intentional given that it was a long-standing,
    clearly marked post and Israel used precision guided
    munitions. Pedersen assessed Hizballah's strategy as waiting
    out the clock until Israel wanted a cease-fire. Nonetheless,
    Hizballah was open to a cease-fire if Israel stopped its
    bombing. The status of the Shebaa Farms was a key issue,
    according to Pedersen, in any cease-fire package. End
    summary.

    START WITH DE-ESCALATION
    ------------------------

    ¶2. (C/NF) On July 26, UNSYG Personal Representative Geir
    Pedersen and Senior Political Affairs Officer Salman Shaikh
    came to the Embassy to meet the Ambassador and econoff
    regarding cease-fire efforts. Pedersen, following a meeting
    with Speaker Berri's foreign affairs adviser Ali Hamdan, said
    that a de-escalation is urgently needed. It appears as if a
    cease-fire deal is not going to happen soon, so the
    international community must at least try to contain the
    violence before it spirals out of control. Hamdan had warned
    Pedersen that in about 14 days the large numbers of
    internally displaced persons (IDPs) will start creating
    instability in Beirut and the rest of Lebanon. Then the
    debate will not just be about instability in the south, but
    in the whole country. Moreover, the geographic scope
    internationally could expand.

    ¶3. (C/NF) Pedersen hoped to achieve a de-escalation with a
    compromise deal between Israel and (indirectly) Hizballah.
    He proposed that Israel would agree to cease all military
    strikes north of the Litani River if Hizballah agreed to stop
    firing rockets into northern Israel. This would restrict the
    combat to the south for a short period until a comprehensive
    cease-fire deal is reached. The Ambassador replied that he
    did not see how such a deal would benefit either side.
    Hizballah would still have to face Israeli destruction of
    Shia villages south of the Litani as well as displacement of
    its constituents. Meanwhile, Israel would be creating a safe
    haven for Hizballah in the rest of Lebanon without any
    guaranteed achievement of its goals. Pedersen accepted this
    critique, but emphasized that there must be some
    de-escalation soon, whatever the form.

    STRONG SUSPICION ISRAELI
    HIT ON UN POST WAS DELIBERATE
    -----------------------------

    ¶4. (C/NF) Turning to the July 25 Israeli airstrike on a UN
    post that killed four UNTSO observers, Pedersen said that
    UNIFIL commander Maj. Gen. Alain Pellegrini was convinced it
    was intentional. The UN post had been there for 30 years, it
    was clearly marked, and UNIFIL had repeatedly warned the IDF
    that its shells were hitting the post. In addition, Pedersen
    noted that the UN post was hit with precision guided
    munitions. Pedersen continued that he had been researching
    the 1982 Israeli invasion and was of the opinion that the IDF
    sometimes takes actions without the approval of Israel's
    political leadership. Pedersen suggested that the strike may
    have been intended to derail the talks in Rome and discourage
    nations from offering troop contributions.

    HIZBALLAH WAITING
    OUT THE CLOCK
    --------------

    ¶5. (C/NF) Pedersen said that Hizballah officials he is in
    contact with are portraying themselves as confident. They
    appear comfortable with confronting Israel on the ground.

    BEIRUT 00002476 002 OF 002

    Pedersen said that the Hizballah officials keep emphasizing
    the time factor in meetings with him. They talk about how
    much time (and casualties) it would take Israel to take the
    border villages and then to take Tyre. If Israel advances,
    they say, then Hizballah will regroup and counter-attack.

    ¶6. (C/NF) Hizballah does appear open to some kind of a
    cease-fire though. Hizballah officials denied to Pedersen
    that they have rejected an international stabilization force
    as reported in press. Hizballah has not taken a position
    yet. In addition, Hizballah officials tell Pedersen that
    Hizballah wants a cease-fire, as long as Israel stops bombing
    Lebanon. They promised to stop firing rockets if Israel
    stops its bombing.

    ¶7. (C/NF) Pedersen reported that Ali Hamdan believed that
    Hizballah could not be defeated militarily. As such,
    Pedersen speculated that Speaker Berri was warming to the
    idea of a comprehensive cease-fire package as long the status
    of the Shebaa Farms was a part of it. In any event, Pedersen
    commented, Israel has to lower its expectations. The
    Ambassador said that any cease-fire package must corner
    Hizballah from the domestic political context.
    FELTMAN

`