Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 12522 / 251,287

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 96 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/06
1986/05
1987/06
1988/01
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/06 1992/12
1993/10
1996/11
1997/12
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AMED AF ASEC AMGT AFIN AG ABLD AJ AL ASUP AR AID AORC AS AE APER ACOA ANET AU ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG ARF APECO AEMR ATRN AA AADP ACS AM AZ APCS AFFAIRS ADANA ADPM ADCO AECL ACAO AY APEC AORG ASEAN ABUD AGAO AINF AFSI AFSN AGR AROC AO AODE AMBASSADOR ACABQ AGMT AORL AX AMEX ADM ASIG AFGHANISTAN ASCH AMCHAMS ACBAQ AIT AND ARM AQ ATFN AC AUC ASEX AER AVERY AGRICULTURE AMG AFU AN ALOW
BR BA BL BTIO BH BEXP BO BE BG BU BK BRUSSELS BD BM BT BC BX BIDEN BY BBSR BB BF BP BN BILAT BTIU BWC BMGT
CS CO CASC CA CU CH CN CONS CBW CI CE CVIS CW CLINTON CG COE CMGT CJAN CR CWC CD CPAS CT CONDOLEEZZA COUNTER CDG CIDA CM CICTE COUNTRY CJUS CY CBSA CEUDA CLMT CAC CODEL CBE CHR CTM CDC CSW CFED CARICOM CB CL COM CIS CKGR CROS CIC CAPC COPUOS CTR CVR CF CIA COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CLEARANCE CACS CAN CITT CARSON CACM CDB CV CBC CNARC
DHS DAO DCM DR DOD DOMESTIC DO DA DK DTRA DJ DEA DISENGAGEMENT DE DPRK DEPT DOE DS DEFENSE DEAX
ES EC ECON EFIN EAID ETRD EAGR ENRG EINV EIND ETTC ECIN EG ELTN EPET ELAB EU ECPS EUREM ET EWWT ELN EAIR EUN EFIS ER EINT ENVR EMIN ENERG ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ELECTIONS EFTA EZ EN ECA EPA ENGR ETRC EXTERNAL ENNP EI ENVI ETRO ETRN EK ENIV EINVEFIN ECINECONCS ERD EUR EURN EDU EAIG ECONCS ENGY ECONOMICS ETRDEINVTINTCS ETC EFINECONCS EEPET EXIM EAP ECONOMY ESA EINN ECONOMIC EIAR EXBS ECUN EINDETRD EREL EUC ESENV ECONEFIN ECIP EFIM EAIDS ETRDECONWTOCS EUNCH EINVETC EINVECONSENVCSJA EUMEM ETRA ERNG
FR FBI FI FAC FARC FDA FAO FJ FTA FTAA FREEDOM FISO FOR FOREIGN FAS FM FOI FINR FINANCE FMLN FO
GG GM GV GT GOV GTMO GANGS GH GOI GL GA GY GAERC GR GF GCC GAZA GZ GERARD GE GTIP GLOBAL
HO HK HILLARY HA HR HU HUMAN HURI HSTC HI HYMPSK HUMOR HEBRON
IR IN IS IZ IT IC IAEA IEFIN ICAO IACI ID IRS INTELSAT IO ILC ITU IMO IRAQI IV ILO ITALY IBRD ICRC IPR ISRAELI IIP INMARSAT IAHRC IWC INTERNAL ICTY ITRA INDO ITPHUM ITPGOV ITALIAN IQ IBET INR ICJ INRB IRC IMF IA INTERPOL IDA ISLAMISTS IEA IL IZPREL IRAJ ITF IF ISRAEL ICTR IDP IGAD INRA INRO
JO JA JUS JM JP JOSEPH JAMES JOHN JOHNNIE
KNNP KTFN KFLU KPAO KMDR KWBG KTER KBCT KPAL KDEM KTIA KOLY KJUS KCRM KV KSUM KWMN KS KRVC KGHG KE KGIC KPRP KTIP KUNR KPKO KRIM KSCA KOMC KHLS KCOR KWAC KISL KZ KG KIRF KMPI KVPR KIPR KOMS KSPR KN KIRC KFRD KCIP KAWC KFIN KCRCM KR KBTS KSEP KFLO KSEO KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KSTC KICC KMCA KHDP KSAF KACT KSTH KOCI KNUP KPRV KTDB KMIG KIDE KU KPAONZ KNUC KNNPMNUC KNPP KERG KSCI KBIO KDRG KGIT KCFE KTLA KTEX KPLS KHIV KCSY KTRD KID KSAC KNAR KMRS KBTR KJUST KREC KLIG KCOM KAID KPWR KDEMAF KCRS KWMM KRCM KRAD KAWK KNEI KTBT KCFC KPAI KFSC KOM KMOC KICA KRGY KO KVIR KX KPOA KCHG KVRP KGCC KREL KMFO KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KFTFN KNSD KHUM KSEC KCMR KPIN KESS KDEV KCGC KWWMN KPAK KWNM KWMNCS KRFD KDDG KIFR KHSA
LY LE LG LI LH LTTE LU LO LA LAB LOG LT LABOR
MOPS MARR MCAP MEPN MNUC MO MASS MX MD MZ MRCRE MI MTCRE MAS MU MR MC MY MTCR MAPP MUCN MIL ML MEDIA MA MPOS MP MERCOSUR MG MK MEETINGS MCC MASC MV MIK MW MT MDC MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MAR MTRE MEPI MQADHAFI MAPS MARAD MEPP MILITARY MASSMNUC
NATO NZ NSF NPG NSG NA NL NU NPT NSFO NS NSC NE NO NK NI NSSP NATIONAL NDP NP NASA NPA NAFTA NG NIPP NEW NZUS NR NRR NH NGO NC NT NAR NV NORAD NATOPREL NW
OTRA OIIP OPRC OREP OVIP ODIP OPDC OPAD OAS OVP OSCE OIE OECD OPCW OEXC OCS OPIC OFDP OSCI OMIG OBSP OFDA OHUM OTR OFFICIALS OSAC ON OCII OES OIC
PGOV PREL PINR PINS PM PO PHUM PK PTER PREF PARM PBTS PE PAS POL PHSA PNAT PL PAK PA PSI POLITICS PROP PAIGH POLITICAL PARTIES POSTS PMIL POV PALESTINIAN PARMS PROG PU PBIO PTBS POLICY PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PBT PG PY PTERE PHUMBA POGOV PNR PRL PINL PRGOV PORG PUNE PDOV PCI PP PS PGOF PGOVLO PF PAO PREO PAHO PREFA PKFK PSOE PEPR PPA PINT PMAR PRELP PSEPC PGOVE PINF PNG PGOC PFOR PCUL PLN POLINT PGGV PHALANAGE PARTY PHUS PDEM PECON PROV PHUMPREL PGIV PRAM PHUH PSA PHUMPGOV PEL
QA
RU RS RP RSO RICE REACTION REPORT RO RW RIGHTS RCMP ROOD RM RUPREL RFE RF REGION RSP RIGHTSPOLMIL ROBERT RELATIONS
SY SMIG SNAR SENV SCUL SW SA SOCI SO SP SN SU SR SH SYR SZ SCRS SC SF SHI SL SENVKGHG SYRIA SI SWE SARS STEINBERG SG SNARN SEVN SHUM SPCE SIPDIS SAN SNARCS SAARC SIPRS ST SNARIZ SSA SK SPCVIS SOFA SANC SEN
TR TRGY TBIO TPHY TSPA TP TW TU TSPL TS TT TX TZ TI TN TF TERRORISM TD TK TH TIP TC TO TFIN TNGD THPY TL TV TINT TRSY TURKEY TBID TAGS
UK UZ UP US UN UNMIK USTR UNCSD UNHRC UNGA USUN UNSC UNCHR UNESCO UNDC USNC UNO UY UG USEU UV UNEP USPS USAID UNHCR UNAUS UNDP UNC UE UNPUOS USOAS UNVIE UAE UNFICYP UNODC UNCHS UNIDROIT UNDESCO UNCHC UNCND UNICEF
VE VZ VT VTIZ VTEG VTPREL VM VI VN VAT VC
WBG WTRO WHO WIPO WTO WHTI WS WTRQ WI WZ WWARD WHA WITH WFP WMD WB WMO WEU WA
XL XM XW XF XG XT XK XTAG XS XB XE XR XA XZ XY XX XV XU XH XD XI XC XQ
YM YI YE YMCS
ZI ZP ZR ZO ZL ZF ZB ZU ZJ ZEALAND ZK ZANU ZN ZA ZOELLICK

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 09ASHGABAT1182, IRAN: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? XXXXXXXXXXXX DIPLOMAT SHARES HIS PERSPECTIVE

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASHGABAT1182.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ASHGABAT1182 | 2009-09-16 11:18 | 2010-11-28 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ashgabat

`

    VZCZCXRO6903
    PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHLH
    RUEHNEH RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHAH #1182/01 2591118
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 161118Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3474
    INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
    RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5677
    RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0111
    RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 3920
    RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001182
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR NEA/IR

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019
    TAGS: IR PGOV PREL TX UNESCO
    SUBJECT: IRAN: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE? XXXXXXXXXXXX DIPLOMAT SHARES HIS PERSPECTIVE

    ASHGABAT 00001182 001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: Acting DCM Peter Eckstrom, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: XXXXXXXXXXXX's advised in a recent conversation with Ashgabat Iran Watcher that the U.S. would be ill-advised to begin talks with Iran, that it would be great disappointment to Iranians who have found hope in President Obama's message of change. He called Iran's leadership “untrustworthy,” and described the three main groups that he said are sustaining the regime: the “clerical establishment, the paramilitaries and the Bazaaris (merchant class).” XXXXXXXXXXXX finds little difference between any of the major figures in Iran, including most members of the opposition. END SUMMARY.

    A TRIANGULAR BASE OF SUPPORT

    ¶2. (C) In a XXXXXXXXXXXX conversation with Iran Watcher, XXXXXXXXXXXX described his country's present political climate, stating that “nothing has changed” in either the power structure or how major decisions are made in Iran. He described the Iranian regime as a “total dictatorship,” whose continued survival depends on a “triangular” power base made up of the clerical establishment, the “bazaari” (merchants), and the “paramilitaries” (Revolutionary Guards and Basij). He said the three groups are so enmeshed, so dependent on one another, including through arranged marriages and business dealings, that the severance of any one of the three from the others would cause the regime to collapse. Supreme Leader Khamenei makes no decisions without consulting with son Mojtabah, he said, who is reputed to be “running his father's office,” in close consultation with Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi and Kayhan editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari.

    ¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX compared the regime to the dictatorships of Hitler and Mussolini, and said the only difference was that Iran, unlike Nazi Germany, has had the “foresight” not to invade another country militarily, thereby preventing, in his view, any “concerted or effective international response” to its human rights violations or support for terrorism abroad. The demonstrations that began after the June presidential election and continue still are the manifestation of a youthful population that is “fed up” and demanding their “most basic human rights.” He observed that the stress that thirty years of repression is more and more causing the population to suffer from psychological problems.

    ENGAGEMENT?…NOT WITH THIS GOVERNMENT

    ¶4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was adamant that for the U.S. to enter into direct talks with Iran's leadership would be a mistake. Not only, he insisted, is the Iranian leadership “untrustworthy,” and dominated by a group of “messianics,” who base crucial decisions about domestic and foreign policy on a belief in the imminent return of the “Missing” (Twelfth) Imam. More importantly, he said, so many Iranians are pinning their hopes on President Obama's message of change, that for the U.S. now to negotiate with a government that continues to repress and violate the most basic rights of its citizens would be a huge disappointment, a blow to their own aspirations for change in Iran.

    THIS IS NOT 1980

    ¶5. (C) He said Iran is no longer the country or society that rallied around the war effort when Iraq invaded them in 1980. On the contrary, he said, many people he knows are actually saying things like, “Where is Israel? Why don't they just attack us and put an end to this leadership?” He said, however, that new sanctions on necessities such as fuel, would meet with immense public anger as they would mostly affect those who rely on gasoline to commute or make a living.

    ASHGABAT 00001182 002.2 OF 003 THE EDUCATION SYSTEM: A TOTAL MESS

    ¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX estimated that if one counts both teachers and educators, about a third of the country is part of the education system. He lamented the government's “squandering” of its greatest national resource, the 70% of the population who are under the age of 29, with what he called “substandard schooling.” “Such a youthful population, properly educated and trained, could be Iran's greatest asset,” he said. Twenty percent of the population is illiterate, and the rest is comprised of two groups: those who are educated and informed (i.e. the voters who supported Mousavi and Karroubi), and the other, lesser-educated group more likely to follow the dictates of the government and the clerical establishment.

    DETAINEES RELEASED AFTER PAYMENTS OF CASH

    ¶7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that people detained following the June election have had to pay large sums to be released. He described the parents and grandparents of Nazak Afshar, the French embassy local employee arrested and later released in August, as financially “ruined” after having to pay $500,000 for her release. “It took everything they owned,” he said, “they have absolutely nothing now.” Those whose families have no assets at all “don't have a prayer” of getting out, he said.

    AHMADINEJAD OR MOUSAVI: SHADES OF GRAY

    ¶8. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's view, the recent presidential election presented no real choice to the Iranian public, just the “facade” of one, because Mousavi “himself is an insider, part of the establishment,” and was even responsible as prime minister during the 1980's for the creation of the dreaded “morality police.” He said that the authorities made a big mistake in not allowing Mousavi to win the election in accordance with the popular vote. “They could have controlled him, nothing would have changed, but their actions have now unleashed a frustration and an anger that they cannot control.” He is equally unimpressed with former Presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani, whom he deems, “just as interested in their personal fortunes over the interests of the people as everyone else,” citing in particular the violent crackdowns on the student population that took place during Khatami's presidency.

    THE ANSWER?…STOP THE FLOW OF CASH

    ¶9. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX sees the sanctions regime as ineffective. The infusion of cash from abroad is keeping the Iranian regime afloat 30 years after the revolution, including (indirectly, mostly through the UAE) from the U.S. and Europe. Large amounts of money for investment in the markets, especially Tehran's booming real estate market, is keeping the Bazaaris content. Investment in the sale of commodities, for example, brings a return of 50% per year, he said, and investors in real estate can double their money in just a few months. “The Bazaaris are the key to everything, just as they were in 1979,” he said. “To see an end to this regime, cut off the funds coming through Dubai. If the regime loses the support of the Bazaaris, that will be the end of it.” He considered it telling that, when the government attempted to impose a V.A.T. last winter, merchants went on strike and the bazaars were closed for several days. By comparison, he said, the bazaar has not closed once since the election in June, even during the demonstrations and mass arrests that followed.

    ¶10. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶11. (C) BIO NOTE AND COMMENT: XXXXXXXXXXXX

    ¶12. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX does nothing to hide his disdain for Iran's theocracy. In his view, it is a regime that is fundamentially flawed and incapable of reforming itself, respecting basic human rights, or becoming a responsible member of the international community. His scathing criticism is not directed only at Iran, however. He also expressed disappointment at the UN, and what he termed it's “shameful silence in the face of such blatant human rights violations” in Iran. XXXXXXXXXXXX. END COMMENT.
    CURRAN

`