Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 12522 / 251,287

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 96 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/06
1986/05
1987/06
1988/01
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/06 1992/12
1993/10
1996/11
1997/12
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AR AORC AF ASEC APER AS AMED AE AEMR AFIN AG AMGT APECO AU AJ AA ADM AGAO ABLD AL ASUP AID AADP ACOA ANET AY ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG ARF ATRN APEC ASEAN AMBASSADOR AO ACS AM AZ ACABQ AGMT ABUD APCS AINF AORL AFFAIRS AFSI AFSN ACBAQ AFGHANISTAN ADANA AMCHAMS AIT ADPM AX ADCO AECL AMEX ACAO AODE ASCH AORG AGR AROC ASIG AND ARM AQ ATFN AC AUC ASEX AER AVERY AGRICULTURE AMG AFU AN ALOW
BR BO BM BA BK BU BB BL BY BF BEXP BTIO BD BE BH BG BRUSSELS BP BIDEN BT BC BX BILAT BN BBSR BTIU BWC BMGT
CASC CJAN CA CU CO CS CE CVIS CPAS CDG CI CH CBW CWC CMGT CD CM CDC CIA CG CNARC CN CONS CW CLINTON COE CT CIDA CR COUNTER CTR CSW CONDOLEEZZA CARICOM CB CY CL COM CICTE CFED COUNTRY CIS CROS CJUS CBSA CEUDA CLMT CAC CODEL COPUOS CIC CBE CHR CTM CVR CF COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CLEARANCE CACS CAN CITT CARSON CACM CDB CV CAPC CKGR CBC
DR DEA DJ DA DHS DAO DCM DTRA DOD DOMESTIC DO DK DISENGAGEMENT DPRK DEPT DOE DS DE DEFENSE DEAX
ECON ELAB ETRD EINV EPET EAIR EIND ETTC EUR EUN ENRG EK EG ECPS EFIN EC EAID EUMEM EWWT ECIN ELTN EFIS EAGR EU EMIN ET ER ENIV ES EINT EZ EI EPA ERNG ENGR ENGY EXTERNAL ENERG EUREM ELN ENNP EFINECONCS ENVR ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ELECTIONS ECA ETC EFTA EINVEFIN EN ECINECONCS EEPET ERD ENVI ETRC EXIM EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS ETRO EDU ETRN EAIG ECONCS ECONOMICS EAP ECONOMY ESA EINN ECONOMIC EIAR EXBS ECUN EINDETRD EREL EUC ESENV ECONEFIN ECIP EFIM EAIDS ETRDECONWTOCS EUNCH EINVETC EINVECONSENVCSJA ETRA
FR FI FDA FTAA FJ FBI FAC FARC FAO FTA FREEDOM FISO FOR FM FOREIGN FOI FAS FINR FINANCE FMLN FO
GG GM GV GR GAERC GA GE GOI GT GOV GH GTMO GY GANGS GAZA GERARD GL GF GCC GZ GTIP GLOBAL
HURI HR HEBRON HK HO HA HILLARY HSTC HU HUMAN HI HYMPSK HUMOR
IC IT IR IN ICAO IS ID ICRC IZ IAEA IMO IL IQ IRS INRA INRO IV ICJ IBRD IEFIN IACI INTELSAT IO ILC ICTY ITRA IDA ITU IRAQI ILO ITALY IIP INRB IRC IMF IAHRC IA IWC IPR ISRAELI INMARSAT INTERPOL INTERNAL ISLAMISTS INDO ITPHUM ITPGOV ITALIAN IBET INR IEA IZPREL IRAJ ITF IF ISRAEL ICTR IDP IGAD
JA JO JM JOHN JOSEPH JP JUS JAMES JOHNNIE
KDEM KCOR KCRM KMDR KPAO KWMN KNEI KNNP KJUS KISL KOMC KSUM KGHG KCRS KMCA KPKO KHLS KSCA KICC KIRF KPAL KWBG KN KIPR KPOA KV KDRG KBIO KTFN KBTR KFRD KCFE KE KPLS KSTC KTIP KTIA KS KHDP KHIV KCIP KTDB KZ KGIC KOLY KSEO KRVC KFLO KVPR KIRC KU KAWC KPRP KSEP KFLU KTER KBCT KSCI KUNR KRIM KWAC KG KMPI KOMS KSPR KFIN KCRCM KR KBTS KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KREC KLIG KSAF KACT KCOM KAID KPWR KNPP KDEMAF KSTH KOCI KNUP KIDE KPRV KWMM KX KMIG KAWK KRCM KVRP KPAONZ KNUC KNAR KRAD KNNPMNUC KERG KTBT KCFC KVIR KTEX KGIT KPAI KTLA KFSC KCSY KSAC KTRD KID KMRS KOM KMOC KJUST KGCC KREL KMFO KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KFTFN KO KNSD KHUM KSEC KCMR KCHG KICA KPIN KESS KDEV KCGC KWWMN KPAK KWNM KWMNCS KRFD KDDG KIFR KHSA KRGY
LY LG LH LE LO LI LTTE LU LA LAB LOG LT LABOR
MARR MASS MCAP MOPS MT MNUC MX MO MAR MTCRE MASSMNUC MARAD ML MY MAPP MEPN MD MZ MRCRE MI MA MAS MU MR MC MTCR MEETINGS MK MCC MG MIL MASC MV MIK MP MUCN MEDIA MPOS MERCOSUR MW MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MTRE MEPI MQADHAFI MAPS MEPP MILITARY MDC
NO NATO NZ NL NPT NI NU NSF NA NP NPG NSG NSFO NS NSC NE NK NPA NG NSSP NATIONAL NDP NASA NGO NR NIPP NAFTA NRR NEW NH NZUS NC NT NAR NV NORAD NATOPREL NW
OPRC OSCE OIIP OTRA OEXC OVIP OREP OPCW OPIC OECD OPDC OFDP OSCI OMIG ODIP OPAD OAS OVP OIE OFDA OCS OHUM OFFICIALS OBSP OTR OSAC ON OCII OES OIC
PGOV PREL PTER PK PHUM PINS PINR PL PREF PARM PM PBTS PO PE PEL PHSA PA PAO PBIO PAS POL PNAT PAK PSI PU PARMS POLITICS PHUMBA PROP PAIGH POLITICAL PARTIES POSTS PREO PMIL POGOV POV PNR PRL PG PINL PRGOV PALESTINIAN PAHO PROG PREFA PORG PTBS PUNE POLICY PDOV PCI PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PBT PP PS PY PTERE PGOF PKFK PSOE PEPR PPA PINT PMAR PRELP PSEPC PGOVE PINF PNG PGOC PFOR PCUL PLN POLINT PGGV PHALANAGE PARTY PGOVLO PHUS PDEM PECON PROV PHUMPREL PGIV PRAM PHUH PSA PHUMPGOV PF
QA
RS RU RP RW RO ROOD RSO RICE RM RUPREL RCMP REACTION REPORT REGION RIGHTS RF RFE RSP RIGHTSPOLMIL ROBERT RELATIONS
SOCI SCUL SW SZ SP SNAR SENV SY SR SMIG SU SF SO SA SARS SL SN SH SYR SC SG SNARN SEVN SCRS SAARC SI SHI SENVKGHG SHUM SPCE SYRIA SWE STEINBERG SIPRS ST SNARIZ SSA SK SPCVIS SOFA SIPDIS SAN SANC SEN SNARCS
TRGY TU TBIO TPHY TX TNGD TH TSPL TS TSPA TW TIP TZ TF TR TP TO TT TFIN TI TERRORISM TN THPY TD TL TV TC TINT TK TRSY TURKEY TBID TAGS
UK UNGA UP UN UNSC UNICEF UNESCO UY UNEP UV UNPUOS USTR US UNHRC UNAUS UZ UNMIK UNCSD USUN UNCHR UNDC UNHCR USNC UNO UG USEU USOAS UE UNDP UNC USPS USAID UNVIE UAE UNFICYP UNODC UNCHS UNIDROIT UNDESCO UNCHC UNCND
VE VC VT VZ VM VTIZ VTEG VN VTPREL VI VAT
WHTI WHO WBG WTRO WI WIPO WTO WHA WITH WS WTRQ WZ WFP WWARD WB WMO WEU WMD WA
XZ XV XF XA XW XQ XY XM XL XG XT XR XK XTAG XS XB XE XU XC XX XD XH XI
YM YI YE YMCS
ZB ZI ZP ZR ZO ZL ZF ZU ZJ ZEALAND ZK ZN ZA ZOELLICK ZANU

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 06BEIRUT517, MGLE01: SPEAKER BERRI SAYS HE'S READY TO REMOVE

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06BEIRUT517.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BEIRUT517 | 2006-02-21 14:27 | 2011-04-08 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Beirut

Appears in these articles:
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/8639
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/8636
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/8635
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/8637

`

    VZCZCXRO3699
    OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
    DE RUEHLB #0517/01 0521427
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 211427Z FEB 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2117
    INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000517

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2016
    TAGS: IS LE PGOV PREL PTER SY
    SUBJECT: MGLE01:  SPEAKER BERRI SAYS HE'S READY TO REMOVE
    LAHOUD, BUT NEEDS A NAME

    Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman.  Reason: Section 1.4 (d).

    SUMMARY
     -------
    ¶1.  (C)  Nabih Berri stated that his "national dialogue
    conference," scheduled to run March 2-9, could seal the fate
    of President Lahoud, if the participating political blocs can
    agree on a consensus replacement.  As he has throughout his
    career, Berri has assiduously counted the votes and has
    concluded that if either Amal (15 deputies) or Aoun (21
    deputies) join forces with the March 14 coalition (71
    deputies), it would create the two-thirds majority in
    parliament needed to replace Lahoud.  Although Michel Aoun
    remains opposed to any candidate except himself, Berri
    indicated he is ready to commit his Amal delegates (which
    would create a two-thirds majority) if an acceptable
    replacement can be found.  Berri is annoyed with the "stupid"
    behavior of Saad Hariri in calling for street demonstrations
    on March 14 to oust Lahoud, but believes such a
    confrontational strategy can be avoided if agreement on a
    replacement can be achieved -- an agreement he feels is
    within reach because it requires neither Aoun nor Nasrallah.
    End summary.

    ¶2.  (U)  Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri met the Ambassador
    and poloff on February 21 at his office in Ayn Tine in West
    Beirut.  Amal political affairs advisor Ali Hamdan also
    attended the meeting.  Berri indicated he would soon be
    leaving for Amman for a meeting of the Arab League, but would
    be back in Beirut well before next week's scheduled opening
    of his "national dialogue conference."

    "I WILL COOPERATE ON ONE CONDITION"
    -----------------------------------

    ¶3.  (C)  Following a remark on how rapidly things were
    changing on the political scene, Nabih Berri referred to a
    statement made on February 20 by the religious leader of
    Lebanon's Maronite community, Patriarch Boutros Sfeir.
    Unlike his previous stated position that street
    demonstrations designed to remove Lahoud would be unwise and
    damaging to the institution of the presidency, Sfeir had now
    declared that demonstrations were permissible, but "not in
    front of Baabda Palace" -- to avoid potentially dangerous
    counter-demonstrations.  According to Berri, by making such a
    statement, the Maronite leader moved one step closer to
    joining a growing consensus to replace the Syrian-imposed
    president.  When asked if the patriarch will name a
    candidate, Berri commented that the cleric was "too clever"
    to publicly declare an acceptable replacement, because if he
    did he would antagonize the numerous Maronite candidates not
    chosen.  All the candidate need be, Berri continued, is
    "moderate" and acceptable to the country's diverse
    communities.

    ¶4.  (C)  Berri expressed frustration and annoyance that Saad
    Hariri, in emphasizing a March 14 deadline, had needlessly
    compressed the time available for a consensus solution, but
    even so, indicated there was a way to achieve Lahoud's
    removal peacefully, "if Saad is smart enough" to seize it.
    Berri indicated that preparations for the planned dialogue
    conference were moving ahead and it appeared the necessary
    parties would attend.  As a result, the pieces were in place
    for consensus reQlution of the situation.

    ¶5.  (C)  The speaker, who has previously beaten political
    odds by astute management of leverage, indicated there were
    presently two blocs that, if aligned with the 71 deputies of
    the March 14 coalition, could create the two-thirds majority
    needed to remove Lahoud and select his replacement.
    Acknowledging the obvious, Berri said that unless the
    replacement candidate was Michel Aoun, it was doubtful that
    the general would ally himself with the Hariri-led coalition.

    AVOIDING A POLITICAL VACUUM
    ---------------------------

    ¶6.  (C)  But unexpectedly, Berri then said he would consider
    taking his deputies into such an alliance on one condition:
    "I have to know who it (candidate) is."  Berri indicated he
    really didn't have a preference, but wanted at all costs to
    avoid the dangerous political "vacuum" that would result if
    the president were removed without a consensus replacement.
    In essence, Berri's deputies would prevent a dangerous
    political impasse.  More importantly, Hizballah, with its 14
    deputies, would not be able to block a Amal/March 14

    BEIRUT 00000517  002 OF 002

    parliamentary alliance.

    ¶7.  (C)  Similarly, Berri explained it was important to have
    a two-thirds parliamentary majority even if Lahoud decided
    (unexpectedly) to simply resign, because under Lebanon's
    constitution, matters such as the selection of a new
    president still required the presence of two-thirds of the
    deputies for a legal quorum.  Thus, Hizballah would be unable
    to subvert the process simply by refusing to attend the
    pertinent parliament session.

    ¶8.  (C)  Even though Berri insisted "it would not be
    difficult," he conceded that if his "national dialogue"
    strategy failed and Lahoud survived past March 14 -- Saad
    Hariri's deadline -- there would be a crisis for the March 14
    coalition, and the country, if competing street
    demonstrations broke out in the already tense capital.  In an
    aside, Berri said the still-to-be-released ISF investigation
    of the violent Sunni demonstration on February 5 would
    indicate Syrian and Palestinian involvement was much less
    than originally stated, and that Sunni extremism was the real
    culprit.

    ¶9.  (C)  Berri concluded, "I accept that Lahoud must go, but
    in the street you can do nothing."  He said that even though
    the timeframe was short, the scheduled March 2-9 dialogue was
    the only real solution to the increasing sectarian pressure.
    He expressed hope that once the presidential issue was
    resolved, Lebanon could begin to address the many pressing
    issues it confronted: the truth behind Hariri's
    assassination, implementation of UNSCR 1559, and normalizing
    relations with its most important neighbor, Syria.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶10.  (C)  The confidence of Berri is interesting when viewed
    in connection with Saad Hariri's similar frame of mind (see
    septel).  There is the possibility that Berri and Hariri have
    already decided to join forces (to create the theoretically
    safe two-thirds parliamentary majority) that would explain
    their public statements and comments to this Embassy.  If
    that is the case, it would appear they are playing with an
    awfully thin margin for error.  But the slight, nuanced shift
    in the patriarch's position and the new-found independence of
    Berri to consider new alliances could be construed as key
    developments that may lead to the constitutional removal of
    Lahoud.  In addition, it would be good news for Lebanon if
    Berri's suggestion that he might split from Hizballah is
    sincere.  An Amal-Hizballah split would allow other Shia
    politicians to emerge, if the current Shia monolith
    splinters.  But we are not holding our breath at this point.
    End comment.
    FELTMAN

`