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### Viewing cable 06MEXICO1509, ROSARIO GREEN ANALYZES PRESIDENTIAL RACE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MEXICO1509 | 2006-03-20 22:14 | 2011-04-05 01:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/eu-dudaba-de-la-viabilidad-del-pri/

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    VZCZCXRO5916
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #1509/01 0792214
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 202214Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9747
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

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    57344
    2006-03-20 22:14:00
    06MEXICO1509
    Embassy Mexico
    CONFIDENTIAL

    VZCZCXRO5916
    RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #1509/01 0792214
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 202214Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9747
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001509

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
    SUBJECT: ROSARIO GREEN ANALYZES PRESIDENTIAL RACE
     REF: 05 MEXICO 7200

    Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Leslie A. Bassett, Reasons:
     1.4(B/D).

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  In a wide-ranging conversation,
    Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Secretary General and
    former Foreign Minister Rosario Green offered to poloff her
    analysis of Mexico's presidential race.  She attributed
    Madrazo's current electoral problems in part to the fact that
    the PRI was unaccustomed to running a presidential campaign
    from the opposition and lacked an authoritative figure in the
    party -- such as a sitting president -- to enforce party
    discipline.  She also cited the scandals involving prominent
    PRI politicians Arturo Montiel and Mario Marin, and teachers'
    union leader Elba Esther Gordillo's desire to exact revenge
    for Madrazo's numerous slights (reftel), as contributing to
    the party's poor public image.  Notwithstanding the difficult
    electoral panorama that Madrazo faces, she argued that the
    candidate remained competitive, because of the PRI's
    allegedly large base of reliable voters.  She argued that as
    President, Madrazo would do a much better job of managing the
    U.S.-Mexico relationship than President Fox has done,
    asserting that Madrazo has much more realistic expectations
    for the relationship than does Fox or, by extension, Felipe
    Calderon.  She sought to portray presidential front-runner
    Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as a dangerous authoritarian who
    would cause capital flight.  At several times during the
    conversation, she gave the impression of being outside of
    Madrazo's inner circle, an impression consistent with what we
    have heard from other contacts.  End summary.

    Answering "an Authentic Cry for Help"
    -------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (C) In a rambling monologue, former Foreign Minister and
    current PRI Secretary General offered poloff her views on
    Mexico's presidential race.  (Note:  Green was named PRI
    Secretary General on September 30, 2005, succeeding Gordillo,

    SIPDIS
    who resigned the post as the result of a long-standing feud
    with former party president and current presidential
    candidate Roberto Madrazo.  End note.)  Green told poloff
    that she agreed to resign her position at St. Edward's
    University in Austin, Texas and return to Mexico because she
    considered the PRI's offer of the position "an authentic cry
    for help."  She believed Mexico was facing a potential
    "institutional crisis" that threatened its democracy, and
    that under the circumstances, she felt a moral obligation to
    return to Mexico and reenter political life.

    Death "by 1,000 Defections"
    ---------------------------

    ¶3.  (C) Green enumerated several factors underlying PRI
    candidate Roberto Madrazo's poor standing in current polls.
    Perhaps most significantly, she noted that the PRI had never
    before run a presidential campaign without holding the
    presidency, and that it was struggling to adapt to its role
    as an opposition party.  The party was accustomed to having
    an all-powerful "godfather" figure -- i.e., an incumbent
    president -- to mediate disputes between rival factions and
    to impose discipline on the party.  The lack of such a
    dominant figure had led to considerable division within the
    party, and permitted disaffected PRIistas -- most notably,
    Sonora Governor Eduardo Bours -- to run a "counter campaign"
    against the party's nominee.  She also singled out the
    scandals involving such prominent PRIistas as former Mexico
    state Governor Arturo Montiel and current Puebla state
    Governor Mario Marin.  She added that in the face of poor
    party discipline, renegade party members, such as Elba Esther
    Gordillo, were free to pursue their personal vendettas
    against the candidate, seeking to cause Madrazo's political
    "death by 1,000 defections."

    Counting on the "Voto Duro"
    ---------------------------

    ¶4.  (C) Green argued that notwithstanding the problems
    confronting the PRI, Madrazo remained a competitive
    candidate.  She argued that with the party's base of loyal
    voters (voto duro) of 10-11 million, it needed to win fewer
    than 5 million swing voters to win the election.  She argued
    that this election would likely be decided by young, first
    time voters, which was why Madrazo had entered into an
    alliance with the Green Party (PVEM).  She said Madrazo would
    soon air new television advertisements in order to
    reintroduce himself to the electorate, and demonstrate that
    his poor public reputation was not a reflection of his true
    self.

    Madrazo Has Realistic Expectations for U.S.-Mexico Relations
    --------------------------------------------- ---------------

    MEXICO 00001509  002 OF 002

    ¶5.  (C) Green sought to assure poloff that Madrazo would
    manage U.S.-Mexico relations far better than President Fox
    or, by extension, Felipe Calderon.  She said that while
    Madrazo believed the U.S. and Mexico needed an immigration
    accord, Madrazo did not seek "the whole enchilada" --
    unrestricted Mexican immigration into the U.S. -- as favored
    by President Fox early in his term.  She said Madrazo would
    be satisfied with a significant increase in the number of H1B
    and H2 visas made available to Mexico.  She added that while
    Madrazo understood the U.S. had the right to protect its
    border, including with a border wall, such a proposal
    offended Mexicans, and that U.S. interests would be better
    served by a high-tech "virtual wall."

    Better the Devil You Know
    -------------------------

    ¶6.  (C) Green reiterated the usual critique of Revolutionary
    Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
    (AMLO), arguing that he was authoritarian and extremist.  She
    predicted that if he lost the election, he would refuse to
    accept the results unless the winner enjoyed a margin of at
    least 10 percent.  She intimated that AMLO would damage the
    Mexican economy, arguing that he only knew how to fight
    capital, not how to cooperate with it.  Unlike AMLO, Madrazo
    sought to eradicate poverty, not wealth.  She said only
    Madrazo had a chance of defeating AMLO, and that Calderon was
    already out of contention -- a surprising assertion
    considering that the PAN leads the PRI in most polls.

    Hoping for a Senate Seat....
    ----------------------------

    ¶7.  (C) As for her own personal ambitions, Green said that
    she had registered as a Senate candidate and expected to be
    named a candidate on the party's national (plurinominal)
    list, although she did not indicate whether she expected to
    be named to a sufficiently high position to guarantee her
    election.  (Note:  At least two embassy contacts in the PRI
    have told us that she would not be given a high position on
    the party's plurinominal list.  End note.)

    Comment:  Madrazo's Latest Victim?
    ----------------------------------

    ¶8.  (C) Green stayed close to the party line throughout our
    conversation; indeed, we were surprised only by her assertion
    that the PAN was already out of contention, since it
    continues to lead the PRI in most polls.  Otherwise, Green
    gave the impression of being something of a figurehead as
    party Secretary General.  She seemed less informed about
    internal party politics than some lower ranking contacts, and
    gave the impression of not being in Madrazo's inner circle,
    confirming what we have heard elsewhere.  Such an impression
    would be further confirmed if she is relegated to an
    uncompetitive position on the party's legislative list, an
    anomalous result for the party's second-ranking official.  If
    that turns out to be the case, we will not be able to escape
    the impression that Madrazo lured her back to Mexico with
    empty promises last September, when according to party
    by-laws, he urgently needed a woman to fill the post
    abandoned by Gordillo.  If her party loyalty is not duly
    rewarded, Green may prove to be but the latest victim of
    Roberto Madrazo's lifetime of double dealing.  End comment.

    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

    GARZA

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