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### Viewing cable 04WELLINGTON909, NEW ZEALAND'S NEW MAORI PARTY GAINS TRACTION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04WELLINGTON909 | 2004-11-01 02:41 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000909

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR EAP/ANP

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2014
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM NZ
    SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND'S NEW MAORI PARTY GAINS TRACTION

    REF: A. WELLINGTON 889

         ¶B. WELLINGTON 601
         ¶C. WELLINGTON 382

    Classified By: Principal Officer, Siria Lopez, Reason 1.5 (b) and (d)

    (U) This cable originated from AmConGen Auckland.

    ¶1.  (U)  Summary:  Approximately four months after its
    creation, the Maori Party has achieved more success than some
    observers may have initially expected, due largely to anger
    in Maori communities over the GoNZ's handling of proposed
    foreshore and seabed legislation.  For now, Labour seems to
    have an unexpected rival for the important Maori vote, which
    controls the outcome of seven Maori-designated Parliamentary
    seats.  Nonetheless, the Maori Party faces many serious
    longer-term challenges, including voter apathy, institutional
    support, funding and a strong Maori tradition of voting for
    Labour.  These challenges must overcome if it is to avoid
    becoming just one more failed Maori party experiment in New
    Zealand.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (U)  Approximately four months after its creation, signs
    are that the Maori Party may not be the insignificant blip
    some observers may have initially expected. (Most
    prominently, Labour MP John Tamihere, a high-profile Maori,
    vented against the Party, accusing it of being nothing more
    than a brand name-- barbs that greatly aggravated Maori Party
    leaders.)  But it is not surprising that the Maori Party's
    birth has been greeted with caution or outright skepticism.
    Notwithstanding Maori disaffection, previous attempts at
    establishing Maori-based political parties in New Zealand
    have not been very successful.  The three other Maori-based
    political parties currently officially registered are
    electorally insignificant or barely perceptible.  Maori
    voters, traditionally, prefer to give their support to the
    Labour Party.

    MMP ) WHY MAORI VOTES MATTER
    ----------------------------

    ¶3. (SBU)  Under New Zealand's system of mixed-member
    proportional voting, each voter has two votes ) one for an
    electorate candidate, and one for a party.  In addition,
    Maori can choose to vote either on the general roll, or on
    the Maori electoral roll, which votes on the seven
    constituencies specially designated for Maori.  The Maori
    Party will focus on these Maori electorate seats first.
    However, provided the Party retains Maori Party Co-Chairman
    Tariana Turia,s seat, it will receive additional list (i.e.
    Party) member seats in Parliament in relation to the
    proportion of the vote ) i.e. at current polling of two
    percent, the Maori Party could gain one or two additional
    seats.  Current polling for the 2005 election leaves neither
    major party with a clear majority, meaning that the presence
    of sympathetic coalition partners will be the deciding factor
    for any government.  The Maori Party is likely to vote
    closely with Labour on supply and confidence issues, and
    should the Maori Party win additional Maori seats and gain
    list seats, it will amplify their influence as a possible
    coalition partner.

    CURRENT PARTY STANDING
    ----------------------

    ¶4.  (U)  What could make this latest attempt at establishing
    a Maori-based party different from past attempts is Maori
    anger over the seabed and foreshore issue (ref C).  At the
    end of April, Labour MP Tariana Turia bolted the party to
    protest the Labour Government's perceived reversal on the
    foreshore and seabed legislation.  (Proposed legislation
    grants Maori customary title versus full ownership, and has
    been called by some a modern-day land grab.)  In July Turia
    stood in a by-election as a Maori Party candidate and won,
    giving the new party parliamentary representation (ref A).
    Party membership now reportedly stands at 6000.  Recent polls
    have it enjoying 2 per cent national support (translating
    into 2 non-Maori seats if an election were held this month)
    and five percent support in Auckland where many of New
    Zealand's Maori live.  The Party may also have a decent shot
    at another Parliamentary slot if Tamihere, currently enmeshed
    in a financial scandal, is forced into a by-election to
    retain his Parliamentary seat (ref A.)  If so, it is expected
    that his Maori Party opponent, Dr. Pita Sharples, would give
    him a good run for his money.

    ¶5.  (C)  If Maori disaffection over the foreshore and seabed
    can be sustained and if Maori are prepared to channel these
    negative feelings into positive support for their own
    political vehicle, then the Party is likely to increase its
    Parliamentary representation in the next general election.
    If the party can find good candidates, many already believe
    it is capable of taking all seven Parliamentary seats
    currently reserved for Maori.  Dr. Sharples, Maori Party
    co-leader, confirmed to Consul General that candidate
    selection is the Party's number one priority.  The Party is
    seeking out prominent persons, such as Maori Land Court Judge
    Caron Wickliffe, to offer them the opportunity to run as
    Party candidates (Note:  Judge Wickliffe declined Sharples'
    offer, however.)
    LONG-TERM PROSPECTS?
    --------------------

    ¶6.  (C)  Despite the initial traction the Maori Party has
    gained, there are some very daunting challenges to its
    longer-term viability.  Two obvious problems are funding and
    institutional support.  Maori are a minority population and
    their income levels are lower than those of non-Maori.
    Already an early Maori Party fund-raiser planned for the
    South Island had to be canceled due to lack of response.
    Asked about the South Island, Dr Sharples sighed and told
    Consul General it was "a mess."  The South Island Maori
    electorate, he noted, comprises Wellington with its Maori
    urban middle-class and the entire South Island with its
    non-urban, non-middle-class Maori.  The Party has found it
    difficult to establish branches there because of disparate
    constituencies, spread-out population and the lack of
    organizational discipline among Maori Party members.  (NB:
    The Maori seat boundaries are split to cover the entire
    country.  The South Island is home to only 10 percent of the
    Maori population.)

    ¶7.  (U)  Maori political apathy is another significant
    challenge.  Maori feel less stake in the political process
    and have lower levels of political participation than other
    groups. At a political meeting on local elections in Manukau
    City, the city with the largest Maori population in New
    Zealand, Maori Party speakers noted that Manukau has the
    lowest vote turnout for local government elections in the
    country.  Voter turnout among Maori and Pacific Islanders,
    they said, was even lower.

    ¶8.  (U)  Ultimately, however, the Maori Party's biggest
    challenge may be the Labour Party.  When Maori do vote they
    have traditionally voted for Labour. Maori have long
    identified Labour as the party most sympathetic to their
    concerns.  Notwithstanding Maori feelings of betrayal over
    Labour's position on the foreshore and seabed legislation,
    they believe Labour still better represents their overall
    interests than does, for example, the National Party.  Those
    more practical and realistic Maori question the value of
    giving the Maori Party their vote when, as one Maori academic
    put it, "the Governor General won't be asking them to form
    the next government."

    ¶9.  (C) Dr. Sharples told Consul General that in order to
    address this problem, a Maori Party priority is to register
    those Maori who have never registered to vote before.  He
    explained that most of these are young persons who do not
    have a long history of supporting Labour.  Thus, they should
    be more easily persuaded to vote for the Maori Party.
    Sharples seemed acutely aware of the difficulty in coming up
    against the powerful Labour Party election machine.  He said
    he hopes Tamihere runs without Labour party backing if a
    by-election should come to pass in Tamihere's electorate.
    Under these circumstances, Sharples is confident he could
    wrest the seat from Tamihere.  Otherwise, "John may eat me up
    and spit me out."  "But," he added, "at least he'll get a
    battle."

    ¶10.  (C)  Asked if the Maori Party plans to run candidates in
    non-reserved seats in the 2005 general elections, Sharples
    said yes but these are simply "ideas at this stage."  He
    indicated that the Party wants to focus on registering voters
    for Maori electorates, where it has its best electoral
    prospects.  But the Party would consider running in those
    general constituencies with large Maori populations.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶11.  (C)  Comment:  In addition to the challenges to Maori
    Party viability that are noted above, other potential
    pitfalls include pressure from Maori extremist elements (held
    at bay for now according to Sharples) and divisions along
    tribal lines (a greater worry).  Nonetheless, notwithstanding
    some well-justified doubts, the Maori Party has done
    respectably in a very short time.  It has also put Labour on
    notice that it may now have a rival for the Maori vote, a
    vote that is fundamentally important to Labour and one that
    has been long taken for granted.  So the Maori Party appears
    to have gotten off to a good start.  Now it must establish
    its significance and staying power as a rival to Labour for
    the Maori vote.
    Swindells

`