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### Viewing cable 07WELLINGTON413, POLLING AS LABOUR GOVT SUPPORT PLUNGES FURTHER, THE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07WELLINGTON413 | 2007-06-01 06:00 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXRO2202
    RR RUEHNZ
    DE RUEHWL #0413/01 1520600
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 010600Z JUN 07 ZDK
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4316
    INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4851
    RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1333

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000413

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EAP/ANP - KELLY MCKELLOGG

    E.O. 12985:  N/A
    TAGS: PGOV NZ
    SUBJECT:  POLLING AS LABOUR GOVT SUPPORT PLUNGES FURTHER, THE
    OPPOSITION SURGES

    REF:  A) WELLINGTON 386, B) 06 WELLINGTON 598

    WELLINGTON 00000413  001.2 OF 002

    ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Support for the Labour Government continues to
    slide. Three major New Zealand political polls have shown that it
    now trails the opposition National Party by an average of 20 points.
    They also show that National's new leader John Key has cemented his
    position as New Zealand's preferred Prime Minister over Helen Clark,
    the first to do so in her eight years in office. A series of recent
    events and decisions have conspired to turn a growing number of New
    Zealanders against the Labour Government. Although Clark has been
    successful in reversing past slumps by relying on previous National
    Party missteps, Post believes that a more astute and confident
    National will make this much harder to do this time around. Analysts
    predict that if Labour does not arrest its slide by the start of
    2008 it will prove fatal for the Government's prospects in the
    general elections later that year. END SUMMARY.
    Polls show National ahead of Labour
    -----------------------------------
    ¶2. (SBU) Three major New Zealand political polls, all released after
    the recent announcement of the tepidly-received 2007 Budget (see ref
    A), show that the opposition National Party is now considerably more
    popular that the Labour Government. Averaging out these polls,
    National now has a sizeable 20-point advantage over Labour.  The
    Government's popularity problem has extended to personal polling,
    where National's leader John Key has continued to grow his lead over
    PM Clark as New Zealand's preferred Prime Minister.
    Analysts put Labour on alert
    ----------------------------
    ¶3. (SBU) A leading political commentator believes that if Labour is
    still trailing by even half of the current gap which has opened
    between it and National by the February of election year 2008 - when
    campaign politics begin in earnest - it will probably be too late
    for the Government to win re-election. The commentator suggests that
    if National's lead is entrenched at around 10% points by February
    2008, it will be almost impossible for Labour to haul it back and
    win the election.
    ¶4. (SBU) A Massey University political analyst believes that the
    vast gap between Labour and National can't be shrugged off as the
    result of a honeymoon period for the new leader of the opposition,
    as propositioned by Clark. The analyst said New Zealand research
    shows people who make up their mind early about whom they will vote
    for are mostly National voters.
    Labour's Options
    ----------------
    ¶5. (SBU) Despite its clear unpopularity at present, Labour still has
    the major advantage over National of setting the political agenda,
    the Government also faces a buoyant economy and a large cash surplus
    to call on if needed. In an attempt to refresh her party and revive
    its political fortunes, Clark is expected to reshuffle her cabinet
    in the coming months.
    ¶6. (SBU) Key himself says his party is taking heart from the results
    but cautions that it "is still a year and a half out from the
    election, and there is no room for complacency or arrogance." A
    close advisor to Key has told post that National "would like to earn
    the right to be the government and stay in power for an extended a
    period of time." The adviser believes the poll results are a
    reflection that voters are growing tired a directionless and staid
    Labour after three terms in office.
    Polls tell growing gulf between National and Labour
    --------------------------------------------- ------
    ¶7. (SBU) On May 26, the Herald's DigiPoll survey showed National's
    support had reached 50.9% (up 7 points) with Labour dropping 7
    points to 33.6%. The following day the One News-Colmar Brunton poll
    released its findings which showed National up 7 points to 56% and
    Labour conceding 7 points to 31%. On May 30, the Roy Morgan poll had
    National at 49% and Labour on 32%. In Preferred Prime Minister
    polling the Herald's DigiPoll has Key at 45.5% (up 9.3 points) and
    Clark at 42.1% (down 5.6 points). Similarly the Colmar Brunton
    survey found Key gained 10 points to lead Clark, who lost 10 points,
    38% to 27%. These findings track the milestone 3 News-TNS poll
    earlier this month in which Clark had, for the first time since she
    took office in 1999, lost her top billing as New Zealand's Preferred
    Prime Minister (to Key).
    ¶8. COMMENT: (SBU) Although Clark attributed Labour's slump to
    "mid-term blues" and expressed confidence that her party could
    recover before the next election, scheduled for the end of 2008,
    Post believes that other factors have contributed to Labour's poor
    polling. One was Labour's support for the highly controversial
    Anti-Spanking Bill. This bill, now passed into law, abolished the
    legal defense of reasonable force against children and banned
    physical punishment of children. It greatly angered a majority of
    New Zealanders who regarded it as an unwarranted intrusion by the
    state into their personal/family lives. This development along with
    the absence of personal tax cuts in the latest budget round, voter
    dissatisfaction with rising interest rates, perceived bungling in
    the law and order portfolio, and the ongoing corruption controversy
    concerning former Labour MP Taito Phillip Field (see ref B) are

    WELLINGTON 00000413  002.7 OF 002

    other contributing factors affecting Labour's decline. After three
    terms in power, it is also clear that a growing number of New
    Zealanders are growing weary of the Labour Government and its MPs. A
    simple cabinet re-shuffle is unlikely to do much to change the
    growing public perception that the Government is jaded and
    out-of-touch, especially when compared with National's newly
    confident and energetic leadership and enlivened caucus.
    ¶9. (SBU) In the 8 years it has held power, Labour has experienced a
    few major downturns but none as serious as now. It has usually
    reversed past slumps by waiting for previously gaffe-prone National
    leaders to self-destruct and lose the confidence of voters. However,
    Clark and her colleagues cannot rely on this strategy going forward
    as Key is far less divisive and a more disciplined and politically
    astute National Party leader than his predecessors. Making Labour's
    task more difficult this time is that some in the media have begun
    to swing in behind Key. Some have even dubbed him a leader-in
    waiting. END COMMENT.
    McCormick

`