Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 12461 / 251,287

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 96 97 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/06
1986/05
1987/06
1988/01
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05
1992/01 1992/06 1992/12
1993/10
1996/11
1997/12
2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chennai Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples Consulate Naha
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AF AR AJ ASEC AE AS AORC APEC AMGT APER AA AFIN AU AG AM AEMR APECO ARF APCS ANET AMED AER AVERY ASEAN AY AINF ABLD ASIG ATRN AL AC AID AN AIT ABUD AODE AMG AGRICULTURE AMBASSADOR AORL ADM AO AGMT ASCH ACOA AFU ALOW AZ ASUP ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AADP AFFAIRS AMCHAMS AGAO ACABQ ACS AFSI AFSN ACBAQ AFGHANISTAN ADANA ADPM AX ADCO AECL AMEX ACAO AORG AGR AROC AND ARM AQ ATFN AUC ASEX
BL BR BG BA BM BEXP BD BTIO BBSR BMGT BU BO BT BK BH BF BP BC BB BE BY BX BRUSSELS BILAT BN BIDEN BTIU BWC
CH CO CU CA CS CROS CVIS CMGT CDG CASC CE CI CD CG CR CJAN CONS CW CV CF CBW CLINTON CT CAPC CTR CKGR CB CN CY CM CIDA CONDOLEEZZA CBC COUNTERTERRORISM CPAS CWC CNARC CDC CSW CARICOM CACM CODEL COE COUNTER CL COM CICTE CIS CFED COUNTRY CJUS CBSA CEUDA CLMT CAC COPUOS CIC CBE CHR CIA CTM CVR CITEL CLEARANCE CACS CAN CITT CARSON CDB
DJ DEFENSE DR DEA DA DTRA DO DOMESTIC DHS DAO DCM DK DISENGAGEMENT DOD DPRK DEPT DEAX DOE DS DE
EG ECON EPET ETRD EINV ETTC ENRG EFIS EFIN ECIN ELAB EU EAID EWWT EC ECPS EAGR EAIR ELTN EUN ES EMIN ER EIND ETRDECONWTOCS EINT EZ EFTA EI EN ET ECA ELECTIONS ENVI EUNCH ENGR EK ENERG EPA ELN EUREM EXTERNAL EFINECONCS ENIV EINVEFIN EINVETC ENVR ESA ETC EUR ENGY ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ECINECONCS EINVECONSENVCSJA EUMEM ETRA EXIM ECONOMIC ERD EEPET ERNG ETRC ETRDEINVTINTCS ETRO EDU ETRN EAIG EURN ECONCS ECONOMICS EAP ECONOMY EINN EIAR EXBS ECUN EINDETRD EREL EUC ESENV ECONEFIN ECIP ENNP EFIM EAIDS
FR FJ FI FM FAO FO FDA FARC FTA FTAA FBI FAC FREEDOM FISO FOR FOREIGN FOI FAS FINR FINANCE FMLN
GG GM GTIP GERARD GV GH GCC GE GLOBAL GT GA GR GZ GANGS GY GOI GOV GAERC GAZA GTMO GL GF
HO HA HILLARY HR HK HUMAN HU HEBRON HURI HSTC HUMOR HI HYMPSK
IR IZ IS IC IWC IAEA IT IN IBRD IMF ITU IV IDP ID ICAO ITF IAHRC IMO ICRC IGAD IO IIP IF ITALY INMARSAT ISRAEL IPR IEFIN IRC IQ IRS ICJ ILO ILC ITRA INRB ICTY IACI IDA ICTR INTERPOL IA IRAQI ISRAELI INTERNAL IL ISLAMISTS INDO ITPHUM ITPGOV ITALIAN IBET INR INRA INRO IEA INTELSAT IZPREL IRAJ
JA JM JO JOHN JP JUS JOSEPH JAMES JOHNNIE
KIRF KISL KN KZ KPAL KWBG KDEM KSCA KCRM KCOR KJUS KAWC KNNP KWMN KFRD KPKO KWWMN KTFN KBIO KPAO KPRV KOMC KVPR KNAR KRVC KUNR KTEX KIRC KMPI KIPR KTIA KOLY KS KGHG KHLS KG KCIP KPAK KFLU KTIP KSTC KHIV KSUM KMDR KGIC KV KFLO KU KIDE KTDB KWNM KREC KSAF KSEO KSPR KCFE KWMNCS KAWK KRAD KE KLIG KGIT KPOA KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KSCI KFSC KHDP KSEP KR KACT KMIG KDRG KDDG KRFD KWMM KPRP KSTH KO KRCM KMRS KOCI KCFC KICC KVIR KMCA KCOM KAID KOMS KNEI KRIM KBCT KWAC KBTR KTER KPLS KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KIFR KCRS KTBT KHSA KX KMFO KRGY KVRP KBTS KPAONZ KNUC KPWR KNPP KDEMAF KFIN KNUP KNNPMNUC KERG KCRCM KPAI KTLA KCSY KSAC KTRD KID KOM KMOC KJUST KGCC KREL KFTFN KNSD KHUM KSEC KCMR KCHG KICA KPIN KESS KDEV KCGC
LY LI LG LE LO LU LH LABOR LTTE LA LAB LOG LT
MARR MTCRE MNUC MR MASS MOPS MO MX MCAP MP ML MEPP MZ MAPP MY MU MD MILITARY MA MDC MC MV MI MG MEETINGS MAS MASSMNUC MTCR MK MCC MT MIL MASC MEPN MPOS MAR MRCRE MARAD MIK MUCN MEDIA MERCOSUR MW MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MTRE MEPI MQADHAFI MAPS
NZ NL NSF NSG NATO NPT NS NP NO NG NORAD NU NI NT NW NH NV NE NPG NASA NATIONAL NAFTA NR NA NK NSSP NSFO NDP NATOPREL NIPP NPA NRR NSC NEW NZUS NC NAR NGO
OPDC OPRC OREP OTRA OIIP OEXC OVIP OPIC OSCE ODIP OFDP OECD OAS OSCI OFDA OPCW OMIG OPAD OIE OIC OVP OHUM OFFICIALS OCS OBSP OTR OSAC ON OCII OES
PHUM PGOV PREL PTER PBTS PINR PARM PINS PREF POL PK PE PA PBIO PM PGGV PHALANAGE PARTY PROP PGOVLO PHUS PDEM PHSA PO PECON PL PNR PAK PRAM PMIL PF PROV PRL PG PHUH PSOE PGIV POLITICS PAS POGOV PAO PHUMPREL PNAT PHUMBA PEL POV PMAR PLN PSA PREO PAHO PHUMPGOV PREFA PSI PINL PU PARMS PRGOV PALESTINIAN PAIGH POLITICAL PARTIES POSTS PROG PORG PTBS PUNE POLICY PDOV PCI PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PBT PP PS PY PTERE PGOF PKFK PEPR PPA PINT PRELP PSEPC PGOVE PINF PNG PGOC PFOR PCUL POLINT
QA
RS RU RP RFE RO RW ROOD RM RELATIONS RIGHTSPOLMIL RICE ROBERT RUPREL RSO RCMP REACTION REPORT REGION RIGHTS RF RSP
SP SOCI SENV SMIG SY SNAR SCUL SZ SU SA SW SO SF SEVN SAARC SG SR SIPDIS SARS SNARN SL SAN SI SYR SC SHI SH SN SHUM SANC SEN SCRS SENVKGHG SYRIA SWE STEINBERG SIPRS ST SPCE SNARIZ SSA SNARCS SK SPCVIS SOFA
TS TH TRGY TPHY TU TBIO TI TC TSPA TT TW TZ TSPL TN TD THPY TL TV TX TNGD TP TAGS TFIN TIP TK TR TF TERRORISM TINT TO TRSY TURKEY TBID
US UK UP UNSC UNHRC UNMIK UNGA UN UZ UY UNDP UG UNESCO USTR UNPUOS UV UNHCR UNCHR UNAUS USOAS UNEP USUN UNDC UNO USNC UNCSD UNCND UNICEF UE USEU UNC USPS USAID UNVIE UAE UNFICYP UNODC UNCHS UNIDROIT UNDESCO UNCHC
VE VZ VT VM VAT VTPREL VN VC VTIZ VTEG VI
WHO WTRO WTO WS WEU WZ WBG WITH WHA WA WIPO WMO WHTI WI WMD WTRQ WFP WWARD WB
XM XL XF XT XB XV XG XW XX XY XS XA XK XC XD XR XU XE XZ XH XI XTAG XQ
YI YM YMCS YE
ZK ZP ZI ZU ZR ZL ZO ZB ZANU ZF ZOELLICK ZJ ZEALAND ZN ZA

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 09ASMARA80, IS ERITREA UNRAVELING?

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASMARA80.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ASMARA80 | 2009-03-05 13:21 | 2010-12-15 21:30 | SECRET | Embassy Asmara

`

    P 051321Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0206
    INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
    CIA WASHDC
    DIA WASHDC
    NSC WASHDC
    SECDEF WASHDC
    CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    JICCENT MACDILL AFB FL
    CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ
    HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
    COMUSNAVCENT

` `

    Thursday, 05 March 2009, 13:21
    S E C R E T ASMARA 000080
    DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E
    EO 12958 DECL: 03/04/2019
    TAGS PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ER
    SUBJECT: IS ERITREA UNRAVELING?
    REF: ADDIS ABABA 567
    Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)

    ¶1. (S) Summary: Young Eritreans are fleeing their country in droves, the economy appears to be in a death spiral, Eritrea’s prisons are overflowing, and the country’s unhinged dictator remains cruel and defiant. Is the country “on the brink of disaster” as posited by Eritrea’s first cousins across the border in Tigray, Ethiopia (ref)? Party leaders tell us their Leninist “war economy” will be reversed, while Asmara is abuzz with reports of multiple cabinet-level changes. However, tinkering at the margins of governance will count for naught as long as the Isaias regime remains a one-man band. Gold mining will not provide the anticipated economic panacea. Although the regime is one bullet away from implosion, Eritrea’s resilience as a country is based on 1) a strong sense of nationalism forged over four decades of war, and 2) the capacity of most Eritreans to withstand suffering and deprivation with forbearance and toughness. Any sudden change in government is likely to be initiated from within the military. End Summary.

    ¶2. (S) The Regime’s Political Capital is Tanking
    --------------------------------------------- ---
    Isaias’ popularity stemmed from his leading role in Eritrea’s Davidic victory in the thirty-year struggle for independence.  Immediately after liberation, Isaias seemed to be providing (like Mugabe) reasonably good governance to his traumatized nation. The accelerating decline into dictatorship began in 1996 with an alleged assassination attempt against Isaias by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi, followed by the bloody 1998-2000 Border War, and the “treason” of the inner-circle critics called the G-15. Severe persecution of any potential opposition increased. With half of Eritrea’s population being born after liberation, Isaias’ Struggle credentials are less important than before; youth today face a hopeless future of open-ended National Service at survival-level wages. Hope for a better future fueled Eritrean resistance for a whole generation; the country’s reservoir of hope is now largely depleted.

    ¶3. (S) The War Economy is Failing
    ---------------------------------
    Hagos Ghebrehiwet, as the Economic Director of the Peoples Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), is the architect of the regime’s failed economic policies. When previously asked by the ambassador if he was a Communist, Hagos replied, “No. Quite the opposite.” He explained that from 1993-98 development of the tiny private sector was a top goal, but with the outbreak of war in 1998 “national security became the economic and political imperative.” He contends that the subsequent “no peace, no war” situation with Ethiopia obligated the state to maintain the economy on a war footing, due to shortages of hard currency. Hagos told the ambassador in mid-February that the regime was reversing its war economy policies. “We are going back to the immediate post-independence approach,” he claimed. NOTE: Post has seen no indication of this. END NOTE.

    ¶4. (C) Gold To the Rescue? No
    ------------------------------
    Many Eritrean businessmen and officials hope, and opposition members fear, that come 2010, gold mining will provide the economic fillip needed to rescue the economy and the regime. Mining company executives tell us these hopes and fears are grossly misplaced. Nevsun is the Canadian company leading the development of the large Bisha gold, copper, and zinc field. Nevsun employees say Bisha is like Neapolitan ice cream, with a thin layer of gold atop thicker layers of copper and zinc. Nevsun’s agreement is heavily front-loaded for cost recovery, meaning for the first two years (the life of the gold extraction) almost all revenues will accrue to Nevsun for capital and infrastructure costs. The gold will be flown from Bisha directly to Switzerland. While the government will get some revenues from taxes and royalties, it is only with the beginning of copper extraction in 2012 or 2013 and zinc five years later that the government of Eritrea will see much return on its investment. In short, there is no help on the immediate horizon for Eritrea’s faltering economy.

    ¶5. (C) No American Enemy to Blame
    ---------------------------------
    Prior to January 20 every bad thing in Eritrea was touted as proof of an American-led conspiracy against Eritrea. Daily anti-American diatribes peppered the regime-controlled airwaves and print media. The regime attempted to deflect all complaints by claiming America and its puppet, Ethiopia, were an immediate threat to Eritrea’s sovereignty and/or territorial integrity. Criticism of the regime was thus tantamount not only to sedition, but also to treason. Since January 20 the regime has been on what it considers a charm offensive with the U.S. in hopes that the Obama administration will for some reason reverse USG opposition to the regime’s regional meddling and domestic oppression. Without the “world’s sole superpower” being constantly blamed for all of Eritrea’s woes, Eritreans seem to be focusing more on their own government’s manifest shortcomings. Grumblings are increasingly loud and frequent, but still only in private.

    ¶6. (C) Tough, Proud, and Suffering
    ----------------------------------
    Around 80% of Eritreans live on farms or in small villages. Many are only marginally involved in the monetized economy and produce part of what their families need to survive. Governmental benign neglect would be a positive and welcome change. The regime’s practice of seizing crops or forcing farmers to sell grain at below-market prices has caused families to attempt to withdraw from the monetized economy, at least in part, although the Isaias regime is very good at controlling nearly all aspects of Eritrean society. Eritrean farmers have long lived a knife-edge existence due to marginal rainfall, decades of war and brigandage, and the use of Dark Age technology. Even before last year’s dreadful harvest, UNICEF reckoned that 40% of Eritrean children were malnourished. Despite this, Eritreans remain fiercely patriotic. In the face of deprivation and oppression, the time-tested best practice is to shut up, hunker down, and pray for rain.

    ¶7. (S) Where Will Change Come From?
    ------------------------------------
    In hushed tones, Asmarinos are discussing reports of wholesale changes in the cabinet and other senior civilian positions. From what we understand, the exercise (septel) will be a grand round of musical chairs, with former fighters loyal to President Isaias mostly swapping ministerial portfolios. Meanwhile, the urban population remains largely cowed. The PFDJ’s Secretary General languishes in medical exile in UAE; Isaias chairs the party’s monthly meetings in his absence. Neither the government, party, nor populace seem to have the wherewithal to effect a sudden change in government. The military does. We’ve heard increasingly frequent and specific reports of mutinous behavior from within the military, sparked by growing numbers of troops deserting across the border into Sudan and even into Ethiopia. The mantle of Eritrean nationalism could conceivably pass from the shoulders of Isaias Afwerki to the Eritrean Defense Force. Defense Minister Sebhat Efrem probably has the standing to paper over the rivalries of the senior generals (at least temporarily), should the military or a faction of it suddenly find the need to step in to “save the revolution.”
    MCMULLEN

`