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### Viewing cable 09OTTAWA479, NO ELECTION - FOR NOW

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09OTTAWA479 | 2009-06-18 20:44 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO4325
    OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #0479 1692044
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 182044Z JUN 09 ZDK CTG CB 1369
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9583
    RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS OTTAWA 000479

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O.12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: NO ELECTION - FOR NOW

    REF: (A) Ottawa 470
    (B) Ottawa 466

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Canadians have dodged a summer
    election, but the reprieve appears likely to last only till autumn.
    Following three meetings in less than twenty-hours, Prime Minister
    Stephen Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff agreed that a
    bipartisan panel will study Employment Insurance reform through the
    summer.  The move clears the way for the Liberals to support the
    government's spending plans in confidence votes on June 19 and avoid
    a summer poll.  However, Harper's guarantee to allow an opposition
    vote on the government's economic performance in parliament -- in a
    confidence vote, if necessary -- in early fall suggests that the two
    leaders have deferred, but not necessarily avoided, a new federal
    election.  End summary.

    ¶2. (U) Following two "productive" private meetings with the Prime
    Minister on the afternoon and evening of June 16 (Ref A), and a
    third on the morning of June 17, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff
    and Prime Minister Stephen Harper agreed to "work together" and
    avoid a summer election.  The leaders will form a six-member panel
    to study extending employment insurance (EI) to the self-employed (a
    2008 Conservative election pledge) and examine EI eligibility
    regional inequities.  The panel will report back to the Prime
    Minister by September 28 with recommendations for legislative
    changes.

    ¶3. (U) Harper's concession falls short of the Liberals' demand for a
    minimum 360 hour country-wide EI standard eligibility, and
    Ignatieff's insistence on June 15 that the government help the
    unemployed "this summer."  However, Ignatieff confirmed that it is
    enough for him to support the Conservatives' stimulus spending plan
    on June 19 and keep the government in power.  In turn, the
    Conservatives have agreed to shorten the summer recess, bringing
    Parliament back on September 14 (one week earlier than planned) and
    add an extra budgetary progress report on stimulus funding to be
    presented the week of September 28.  Harper also promised the
    Liberals an extra "opposition day" (when the opposition proposes the
    motion for debate) after the government tables its progress report,
    which they can use as a confidence vote.  A government failure on
    that vote would be an election in the first half of November.

    ¶4. (U) Liberal MPs Michael Savage and Marlene Jennings, and an
    as-yet unnamed Liberal policy advisor, will sit on the EI study
    panel.  For the Conservatives, PM Harper named Minister for Human
    Resources and Skills Development (HRDC) Diane Finley (the Minister
    responsible for EI) and two HRDC officials.

    ¶5. (U) In consecutive press conferences, Ignatieff and PM Harper
    struck positive, but contrasting, tones.  Flanked by his caucus, an
    upbeat Ignatieff declared that he had helped break a political
    logjam on EI.  He took credit for holding the government accountable
    and trying to make Parliament work.  Although he cautioned that
    there is no guarantee of consensus on EI changes, he said he could
    now "look the unemployed in the eye."  In response to reporters'
    queries on whether he had settled for too little, Ignatieff asked
    rhetorically "do I look steamrollered?"  He closed by claiming he
    had moved the EI debate forward and scored a "significant victory"
    in gaining recognition for inequities in the EI system.

    ¶6. (U) Prime Minister Harper described himself as "very pleased"
    that the opposition supported his government's stimulus measures and
    that the parties had agreed to avoid an election that Canadians do
    not want.  Although he welcomed "realistic, affordable" ideas from
    the opposition, he underscored that the government's position had
    Qthe opposition, he underscored that the government's position had
    not changed.  He reiterated that the government remained opposed to
    adopting a 360 hour minimum eligibility for EI across the country.

    ¶7. (U) Harper took a few partisan swipes at his opponents.  He
    lamented that it is "difficult to find common ground when you don't
    know what the ideas are on the other side", and said he looked
    forward to hearing specific proposals from the Liberals on EI that
    had been lacking hitherto.  He also warned that the opposition
    should not interpret a summer election averted simply as an election
    deferred to the fall.  Harper emphasized that his party remains the
    best prepared of all the parties to fight an election at any time
    and warned that his government's defeat by an opposition "Coalition"
    would produce "some pretty dangerous results" for the country,
    though he did specify what those might be.
    BREESE

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