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### Viewing cable 09TOKYO317, SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY CLINTON'S VISIT TO TOKYO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09TOKYO317 | 2009-02-10 07:16 | 2011-05-04 00:00 | SECRET | Embassy Tokyo

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHKO #0317/01 0410716
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 100716Z FEB 09
    FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0682
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE 7669
    RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE 3689
    RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA IMMEDIATE 4410
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/USFJ  IMMEDIATE

` `

    S E C R E T TOKYO 000317

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019
    TAGS: PREL PGOV OVIP JA
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY CLINTON'S VISIT TO TOKYO

    Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., James P. Zumwalt per 1.4 (b/d)

    ¶1. (S) Madam Secretary, Welcome to Tokyo.  Prime Minister
    Aso, Foreign Minister Nakasone and Defense Minister Hamada
    are eager to see you to discuss our new Administration's
    foreign policy and ways to improve our global and regional
    partnership.  That your first stop on your first overseas
    trip is Japan serves as a concrete reminder to Japan's
    leadership and public of the importance of our bilateral
    relationship.  Currently, issue #1 for Japan is the global
    economic downturn compounded by a confused domestic political
    situation.  Although Japanese banks and financial
    institutions had little sub-prime market exposure, the
    country's GDP saw a drop of 9 to 12 percent in the last
    quarter of 2008.  The economic outlook is gloomy with
    expectations of deflation, rising unemployment, and continued
    drops in demand for Japanese exports.  Companies such as
    Toyota and Sony are recording operating losses, paring
    employment rolls and extending factory holidays.

    ¶2. (S) Fear about Japan's economic well-being, combined with
    its hamstrung political system have exacerbated
    dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Taro Aso's leadership,
    resulting in a growing public sense that it may be time to
    turn over government to the opposition Democratic Party of
    Japan (DPJ).  In a dramatic shift, polls show voters
    increasingly consider opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa to be a
    more suitable PM than Aso.  That said, only Aso can dissolve
    the Diet and call an election, and many believe that he may
    do so after passing his budget this spring.   Others suggest
    he will try to hold on until September when the Diet's
    current term expires.

    ¶3. (S) Unfortunately, the political situation and an
    increased focus on domestic issues limit Japan's ability to
    help resolve global problems.  Many believe Japan missed a
    chance as G8 chair to play a greater role in responding to
    the global economic crisis, despite its pledge of $100
    billion to the IMF as a credit facility and $2 billion to the
    World Bank to launch a fund to help stabilize financial
    institutions in developing countries.  At home, Japan's
    response to the global economic slowdown has been short on
    effective measures to stimulate domestic demand and business
    and consumer confidence.

    ¶4. (S) Furthermore, after much political wrangling, the Diet
    only recently passed legislation extending Japan's refueling
    activities in the Indian Ocean in support of Operation
    Enduring Freedom.  Japan continues to consider new
    legislation to respond to Somali piracy, and its ongoing
    deliberations contrast with China's relatively quick decision
    to dispatch ships to the region.  In December, Japan's Air
    Self-Defense Forces ended operations in Iraq.  Japan remains
    a top donor for Iraqi reconstruction but Japan can do more.
    We hope that you'll underline the international community's
    expectations that Japan play a strong role in Iraqi and
    Afghan reconstruction, as well as in combating piracy.

    ¶5. (S) Your interlocutors will want your thoughts on the new
    Administration's views of the bilateral relationship.  In
    particular, they will be eager to hear that our new
    Administration will not take steps to strengthen the
    U.S.-China relationship at the expense of the alliance with
    Japan.  Notably, polls show Japanese are becoming more
    concerned about the state of the bilateral relationship,
    partly reflecting uncertainty about our China policy, as well
    as disappointment with our decision to delist North Korea as
    state sponsor of terrorism.

    ¶6. (S) Your counterparts will want to discuss the Six Party
    process.  Many are highly focused on denuclearization
    including the importance of sampling as part of a written
    verification protocol.  They remain skeptical the North
    Koreans will ever commit to verification measures in writing.
     While most Japanese recognize the importance of DPRK
    denuclearization to Japan's security, they nonetheless remain
    highly emotional about abductions.  A statement from you on
    our continued commitment to achieving progress on DPRK
    issues, including both denuclearization and abductions, would
    be welcome.

    ¶7. (S) Our bilateral security ties remain robust and in this
    area we have good news:  our two countries recently reached
    an International Agreement on the realignment of U.S. Forces,
    which you and Foreign Minister Nakasone will sign.  This
    agreement, scheduled for Diet vote in March, will commit
    Japan to completing the relocation of Futenma Marine Corps
    Air Station on Okinawa and providing funds for USMC-related
    facilities on Guam.  Japanese officials believe the
    agreement, and the allotment of over $900 million in
    realignment funding during the next fiscal year, will
    buttress Japan's commitment to the May 1, 2006, Alliance
    Transformation Agreement even if there is a change in
    government here.

    ¶8. (S) In addition, Japan now hosts a forward-deployed
    nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, our missile defense
    cooperation is moving forward quickly and we are increasing
    bilateral planning coordination and intelligence sharing.
    While pacifism remains deeply ingrained in Japan, there is a
    new consensus among the public and opinion makers -- due in
    part to the DPRK threat and the PRC's growing power
    projection capabilities -- that the U.S.-Japan Alliance and
    U.S. bases in Japan are vital to Japan's national security.
    For example, the main opposition DPJ, while taking issue with
    some of the details of our basing arrangements, maintains as
    a basic policy platform the centrality of the alliance to
    Japan's security policy.  We recommend that you inform your
    interlocutors we intend to hold an early 2 2 (Foreign and
    Defense Ministers) meeting given the importance of the
    Alliance.

    ¶9. (S) Japanese leaders will want your thoughts on the
    Administration's stimulus package, the auto bailout, and any
    other responses to the global economic crisis.  Japanese
    officials -) and the public -) have questions about the
    future course of U.S. trade policy.  They are concerned about
    a rise in protectionism and possible ""Buy America"" provisions
    in the draft stimulus packages.  You may be asked about plans
    for the April G-20 Economic Summit.  Our back-to-back years
    hosting APEC (Japan in 2010, the United States in 2011) will
    offer opportunities to promote policies to further trade
    liberalization and regional economic growth and prosperity.

    ¶10. (S) Your visit is an opportunity to thank Japan for their
    help in addressing climate change/energy issues, coordinating
    on development and disaster assistance, and joint measures to
    combat communicable and emerging diseases such as HIV-AIDS
    and avian influenza.  You may wish to urge Japan to continue
    its work with the United States in the UNFCCC negotiations on
    a post-Kyoto framework and to promote close U.S.-Japan
    cooperation on climate change science.

    ¶11. (S) A quick reference list of issues follows.  Embassy
    Tokyo looks forward to seeing you soon.

    -- U.S.-Japan alliance:  Our alliance is the cornerstone of
    U.S. policy in Northeast Asia, and essential for preserving
    peace and stability throughout the region.  Force
    transformation spelled out in the Defense Policy Review
    Initiative (DPRI) will help sustain Japanese public support
    for the alliance and will strengthen alliance capabilities.
    Both countries are preparing the first set of major fiscal
    expenditures for projects on Okinawa and Guam.  It is crucial
    that we implement our agreed upon plans without change.

    -- Climate Change:  Japan has been a leader in the Major
    Economies process and sees itself as a bridge between the
    U.S. and EU on climate change.  While Prime Minister Aso has
    said he will announce a mid-term target for greenhouse gas
    reduction by this June, Japan has been pushing a bottom-up,
    sectoral approach to determining national greenhouse gas
    reduction goals, as opposed to the top-down, cap-and-trade
    policies promoted by the EU.  Japan wants the United States,
    and the emerging market economies including China and India
    to be integral parts of any new global climate change
    agreements.

    -- Six-Party Talks:  While Japan shared with the United
    States disappointment at the outcome of the recent round of
    Beijing talks, the Japanese were extremely pleased with
    U.S.-Japan-ROK coordination.  Japan remains firm in its
    refusal to provide energy assistance to the DPRK absent
    progress on the abductions issue.  The DPRK's August 2008
    pledge to open a reinvestigation into the abductions remains
    unfulfilled, in spite of a Japanese promise to reciprocate by
    partially easing its unilateral sanctions.

    -- Iraq:  With $1.5 billion in grants, up to $3.5 billion in
    concessionary loans, and $6 billion in debt relief, Japan is
    the second-largest contributor to Iraqi reconstruction.
    Japan's Air Self-Defense Forces had deployed 200 personnel
    and three C-130 aircraft in Kuwait to transport cargo and
    personnel in Iraq; they returned home in December 2008.

    -- Afghanistan:  In December 2008, Japan passed legislation
    to extend by one year the refueling operation in support of
    Operation Enduring Freedom.  Japan is working more closely
    with the PRTs and has assigned a full-time liaison officer to
    NATO's office in Kabul.  Japan is the third highest bilateral
    contributor (behind the U.S. and UK) to Afghanistan, with
    $1.4 billion pledged since 2002.  Japan has included an
    additional $300 million in its latest supplemental budget to
    support the 2009 Afghan elections and other security
    programs.  It has also funded the upgrade of the Self-Defense
    Force's expeditionary capabilities in anticipation of a
    future political decision to deploy forces to ISAF.  Japan's
    most visible endeavor in Afghanistan is the construction of a
    114-kilometer stretch of the southern ring road.  This
    project, originally scheduled for completion in 2005, has
    been beset by delays stemming from Japan's security concerns.
     We have been pressing them to complete the road and have
    also been asking the Japanese to consider other ways to
    support Afghanistan that are politically and constitutionally
    feasible.

    -- China:  Former Prime Minister Fukuda worked hard to
    improve relations with China, but his sudden resignation in
    September 2008 -- and the subsequent political uncertainty )
    has led to a slow-down in progress on bilateral issues such
    as food safety and an agreement on joint development of East
    China Sea resources.  In a positive development, both China
    and Japan have been successful in defusing, for the time
    being, the sharp conflicts over history that damaged relation
    in the Koizumi years.  While Japanese acknowledge that good
    U.S.-China relations are in Japan's interest, they also fear
    that the United States will discount Japan's interests in
    pursuit of more robust relations with China.

    -- South Korea:  Although the Takeshima/Tokdo territorial
    dispute remains an irritant, both sides have expressed a
    desire to build a Japan-ROK relationship that is ""different
    from the relationship up until now,"" including through
    high-level shuttle diplomacy.

    -- Burma:  Japan has scaled back its aid to Burma, but has
    not imposed economic sanctions, although it discourages
    companies from investing in Burma.  Japan could do more, but
    fears driving Burma closer to China.

    -- Middle East Peace Process:  Japan is moving forward with
    its ""Corridor for Peace and Prosperity"" initiative that will
    establish an agro-industrial park in the West Bank, and
    pledged $150 million in project assistance at the December
    2007 Paris donors' conference.  Last August, Japan resumed
    direct assistance to the PA, contributing $20 million.  Japan
    has urged Israel and Hamas to adopt an immediate ceasefire.

    -- Iran:  Japan is implementing UNSCRs 1737, 1747 and 1803.
    Japan is among Iran's top export markets (mostly oil) and is
    Iran's 10th largest supplier of machinery and manufactured
    goods.  A great deal of Japan-Iran trade is covered by
    government guaranteed short-term credits.  Still, since April
    2006, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) has
    ceased issuing Iran new long-term export credits and Japan
    has promised to begin closing outstanding long-term credits.

    -- Beef:  Japan remains closed to U.S. beef and beef products
    from animals older than 20 months of age. We continue to
    insist Japan allow full market access for U.S. product based
    on World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) guidelines and
    science.  Once our largest export market for beef, Japan now
    imports less than 25 percent of pre-2004 levels.  Japanese
    interlocutors will look to see how hard the new
    Administration will press on this issue.

    -- UN Reform:  Japan continues to call for an expansion of
    the UN Security Council to allow for its permanent membership
    (its two-year term as a non-permanent member began January
    1).  The United States believes that Japan is well-qualified
    to become a permanent member and Japan's candidacy is the
    only one we have specifically supported.

    -- Nonproliferation:  While Japan's delegations are perhaps
    not always as vocal in international non-proliferation fora
    as we would like, Japan is generally supportive of U.S.
    non-proliferation efforts, and, in part due to its history,
    holds a firm, legalistic line on proliferation issues.  Japan
    is active in the IAEA (Japan's nominee is one of the leading
    candidates to replace Director General El Baradei), supports
    the IAEA's Additional Protocol for all states, and has
    generally sided with the U.S. in the ongoing IAEA
    investigations of Iran and Syria.  Regionally Japan has taken
    a leadership role through its involvement in the Asian
    Senior-level Talks on Non-Proliferation (ASTOP).  Japan has
    been responsive to UNSC resolutions calling for sanctions on
    known proliferators, but has generally refrained from acting
    on US-initiated sanctions efforts that do not originate in
    the UNSC.

    -- Child Pornography:  Public opinion has responded
    positively to Ambassador Schieffer's public campaign to
    encourage Japan to criminalize the possession of child
    pornography, which remains legal in Japan and Russia alone
    among the G8 member countries.  We hope that a law
    criminalizing possession will be passed in the next Diet
    session.

    -- Hague Convention on Parental Child Abductions:  We and our
    Canadian and EU colleagues continue to press Japan to accede
    to the Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International
    Child Abduction.  However, our Japanese interlocutors remain
    insistent that bureaucratic, legal and cultural barriers make
    near-term progress difficult.
    ZUMWALT

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