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### Viewing cable 09QUITO510, ECUADOR ANNOUNCES BOND BUYBACK "A SUCCESS"

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09QUITO510 | 2009-06-25 13:16 | 2011-05-02 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #0510/01 1761316
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 251316Z JUN 09
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0533
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 8227
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3609
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN LIMA 3280
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4435
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

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    UNCLAS QUITO 000510

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EC
    SUBJECT:  ECUADOR ANNOUNCES BOND BUYBACK "A SUCCESS"

    Reftel:  Quito 277

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On June 11, Ecuador's Minister of Finance
    presented the results of the GOE's bond repurchase, which resulted
    in the repurchase of 91% of the country's 2010 and 2030 Global bonds
    at a 65-70% discount.  Although President Correa called the
    repurchase a success, some critics questioned the use of Ecuador's
    scarce liquidity for the buyback.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (U) On June 11, Finance Minister Elsa Viteri announced that the
    GOE successfully bought back $2.9 billion (91%) of the country's
    2012 and 2030 Global bonds at a 65-70% discount.  The buyback took
    place through a modified Dutch auction process, based on a proposal
    initially presented to bondholders on April 20 (reftel).  (Note:  Of
    Ecuador's three outstanding bond issuances (2012, 2015, and 2030),
    the 2012 and 2030 were restructurings of previous debt and declared
    illegitimate by the GOE.)  Viteri remarked that the government had
    not used any internal or foreign debt resources to finance the
    operation, which she termed "legitimate, legal and transparent."
    She claimed the repurchase represented savings on debt service of
    $7.5 billion through the year 2030 or $30 million per month, which
    would be used instead to finance social programs, education, and
    production.  President Correa echoed her remarks, commenting that
    his government had done what other governments had been afraid to
    do.

    Market Manipulation?
    --------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) The repurchase of $2.9 billion worth of 2012 and 2030 bonds
    at a price of 35 cents on the dollar would represent a disbursement
    of about $1 billion.  However, according to official figures,
    government reserves showed a drop of only $243 million between May
    22 and May 29, the time the bond repurchase went through.  This
    amount is much less than would be needed to repurchase the bonds,
    and lends credence to the widely held belief that the GOE
    repurchased some of the bonds previously in December 2008, following
    its report that the debt was illegitimate.  An earlier purchase
    could have given the GOE an advantage by possibly reducing the
    number of remaining bondholders and their influence.  Contacts from
    the Central Bank confirmed privately that the amount disbursed for
    the bond repurchase on May 29 was only $305 million.

    Effect on Public Finances
    -------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) Fiscal balances have fallen dramatically following the
    repurchase disbursement, as the GOE has not only used its available
    liquidity to finance the debt repurchase, but has maintained its
    projected pattern of current expenditures.  Despite the recent
    increase in oil prices, of Ecuador's $2.5 billion in international
    reserves, only $300 million, about a month of nonfinancial public
    sector expenditures, belong to the Treasury.  The rest belong to
    Social Security, other government entities, and private banks' legal
    reserves.  Minister Viteri has made assurances that in the coming
    months fiscal balances will improve due to expected loans totaling $
    1.5 billion from regional financial institutions including the IDB,
    the CAF and the FLAR.  However, most of the expected loans are
    linked to projects so are not really liquid resources.

    Outstanding Debt
    ----------------

    ¶5. (U) Approximately 19% of the 2012 and 7% of the 2030 bonds remain
    in the market, for a total of about $289 million.  On June 17,
    Minister Viteri reported that the GOE had initiated contact with
    Italian entities who the GOE believes hold the majority of the
    outstanding bonds.  Viteri announced that bondholders who had been
    unable to participate in the buyback for regulatory reasons would
    still be able to sell their bonds for the 35-cent price, but that
    for others, the price would be lower than 35 cents.

    ¶6. (SBU) As a result of the repurchase, overall Ecuadorian foreign
    debt has fallen by 29%, to about $ 7.1 billion.  Outstanding debt
    includes, in addition to $ 1.2 billion in commercial debt, $ 4.3
    billion in multilateral debt (including debt from the CAF, IDB, and
    World Bank), and $ 1.4 billion in bilateral debt from different
    countries such as Brazil and Spain.  In an interview on June 12,
    President Correa stated that Ecuador would be reviewing the
    legitimacy of multilateral loans and loans from other governments in
    the coming months.  He claimed that loans from entities such as the
    World Bank involved "criminal acts by previous governments."
    However, Minister Viteri then announced that Ecuador would continue
    to try to reduce its debt load through dialogue, as part of its
    desire for "a positive and balanced relationship with the
    international financial community," apparently trying to moderate
    what the President had said.

    ¶7. (SBU) Comment:  The GOE seems to have succeeded in its debt
    repurchase, although analysts believe fiscal cash flow management
    will be a problem in 2010.  Market manipulation may still be an
    issue, although with most bondholders having already cashed in,
    there does not appear to be many left to call for charges.  The big
    question will be whether the default will have a significant impact
    on access to credit in the longer term.  End Comment.

    HODGES

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