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### Viewing cable 09BOGOTA974, URIBE DEPLOYS TRUSTED LIEUTENANTS FOR REELECTION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BOGOTA974 | 2009-03-20 22:10 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bogota
Appears in these articles: http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/wikileaks/articulo-265440-santos-sin-carisma-vargas-lleras-sin-control-jose-obdulio-gaviri

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    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #0974/01 0792222
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 202222Z MAR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7893
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8753
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1865
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 7184
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 3249
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 7910
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 000974

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF CO
    SUBJECT: URIBE DEPLOYS TRUSTED LIEUTENANTS FOR REELECTION
    DRIVE

    Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer
    Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (C) President Uribe has not said he intends to seek a
    third term in office, but his allies--with his support--are
    pushing hard for a constitutional change that would give him
    the option.  Uribe has deployed trusted lieutenants to
    consolidate his control over coalition political parties and
    block potential rivals.  Former Peace Commissioner Restrepo
    will take over the U Party, former Environment Minister
    Lozano worked behind the scenes to undercut reelection
    opponent and Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras, and
    former Agricultural Minister Andres Arias and Uribe acolyte
    leads the polls in the Conservative Party.  Presidential
    Communications director Jorge Eastman said that unlike in
    December, all of the Uribista parties now support reelection.
    He predicted that the constitutional reform process would be
    "neither easy nor pretty," but said the latest polls show
    solid public support for reelection.   End Summary.

    URIBE WANTS REELECTION OPTION AVAILABLE
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) President Alvaro Uribe has not yet said if he intends
    to run for a third term, but Presidential Communications
    director Jorge Eastman told us he wants the option available
    and has deployed trusted political lieutenants to make the
    required constitutions reform happen.  Long-time Uribe
    advisor Jose ObdulioGaviria told us he left his position at
    the palace in March to lead the third term push.  He is
    committed to reelection, because he believes there is no
    viable alternative to Uribe.  Gaviria said Defense Minister
    Juan Manuel Santos has no political judgement or charisma;
    Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras cannot even
    control his own party; and former Agriculture Minister Andres
    Arias lacks intellectual heft.  He said the Uribista
    coalition remains a disparate group of individual political
    leaders with no commitment beyond their opportunistic support
    for Uribe.  Without the president, the coalition would fall
    apart.

    URIBE RETAKES CONTROL OF COALITION PARTIES
    ------------------------------------------

    3 (C)  In addition to Gaviria, several other Uribe confidants
    left government in March with the mission of solidifying
    Uribe's control over the individual coalition parties and
    blocking moves by potential rivals.   Luis Carlos Restrepo
    left his job as Peace Commissioner, and is set to be elected
    as president of the U Party in March.  Restrepo told us  he
    discussed his strategy with Uribe and intends to use the
    position to build a new, unified Uribista party (with the
    exception of the Conservatives)  and to push for Uribe's
    reelection.  Restrepo said he would consider running for
    Congress, and would also focus on increasing Uribe's
    majorities in the 2010 congressional elections.  The goal
    would be to win 60 of 102 Senate seats and 100 of 166 House
    seats.

    ¶4. (C)  Restrepo told us he did not coordinate his plans with
    Defense Minister and former U Party founder Santos.  Though
    Santos voiced public support for Restrepo's leadership bid, U
    Party Senator and current Party President Carlos Ferro told
    us Santos is fuming over the move.  Santos had intended to
    use the U Party for his own candidacy, and Restrepo's success
    in taking control of the party showed how easily Santos could
    be "outmaneuvered."  U Party Senator and presidential
    candidate Martha Lucia Ramirez also resigned from the Senate
    and U Party on March 17.  She said she would continue to
    support Uribe, but could not remain in the party due to its
    unfair rules for choosing its candidate.  Her resignation
    removes another reelection opponent from the party.

    ¶5. (C)  Uribe also moved to split the most independent of the
    coalition parties, Cambio Radical.  Environment Minister and
    Cambio member Juan Lozano resigned on March 11, and then
    worked behind the scenes during the March 14-16 Cambio
    Radical Party Congress to advance Uribe's reelection bid.  At

    the Congress, Cambio reversed its previous opposition to a
    2010 Uribe run, dealing a major blow to Vargas Lleras who has
    consistently tried to block a third Uribe term.  Cambio
    Senator Nancy Gutierrez told us Vargas Lleras was forced to
    back down, since most party members support Uribe.  Eastman
    said Vargas Lleras' defeat shows that most Uribista
    legislators--many of whom are only in Congress due to the
    parapolitical scandal--see no future for themselves without
    Uribe, leading them to back a second reelection bid. Unlike
    in December, he added, the Uribista parties now fully support
    the president.

    ¶6. (C) Uribe strengthened his position in the other key
    coalition party--the Conservatives--by supporting former
    Agricultural Minister and Uribe acolyte Andres Arias, also
    known as "Uribito," in his presidential campaign.  Arias
    leads in polling on a Conservative Party primary, but has
    made clear he will end his campaign immediately if Uribe opts
    to run again.  In the past, Conservative Party leaders had
    voiced their intention to run their own candidate in the 2010
    presidential elections. Former President Andres Pastrana has
    also discussed the need for the party to assert its
    independence from Uribe--a shift which the success of Arias'
    candidacy makes highly unlikely.

    POLLS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR REELECTION
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶7. (U)  A recent Gallup poll showed wide support for Uribe's
    reelection, though several difficult steps remain in the
    process to change the constitution to allow a third term.
    Gallup reported that 71% of those polled would either likely
    or definitely turnout for a reelection referendum, and 80% of
    that group said they would vote for reelection.  Pollster
    Jorge Londono told us those numbers would be enough to pass a
    reelection referendum--as well as to meet the required
    turnout of 25 percent of registered voters (approximately 7.2
    million voters)--if the vote were held today.  He noted that
    despite Colombia's economic downturn, voters appear to
    understand that the slowdown reflect a global crisis, not a
    local problem, and do not blame Uribe.  This could change if
    Colombia's economic problems continue to deepen.

    LEGAL STEPS REMAIN TO ALLOW REELECTION
    --------------------------------------

    ¶8. (C)  Eastman told us that despite Uribe's strong support
    in Congress, obtaining passage of the required constitutional
    reform will be "neither easy nor pretty."  The bill to change
    the constitution to allow reelection will be considered in
    April in the Senate in the third and fourth of four required
    votes to pass the measure.  Senate President Hernan Andrade
    told us the Senate will try to modify the bill's existing
    language to make clear that Uribe can run again in 2010.
    Most observers think the language passed in the House in 2008
    would only allow for a 2014 run.  If passed in the final two
    Senate votes with new language allowing a 2010 bid, the
    measure would then move to a House-Senate conference
    committee to be reconciled. Eastman said the multiple votes
    would offer legislators numerous opportunities to seek
    presidential favors.

    ¶9. (C)  Moreover, Eastman noted that House President German
    Varon (Cambio Radical) opposes a third term for Uribe, and is
    a close Vargas Lleras ally.  He will name the House
    representatives to the conference committee, and could use
    his power to kill or delay the reelection bill.  Still, this
    would be difficult given the results of the recent Cambio
    Radical Congress.Varon said Uribistas have been quietly
    pushing investigations against him in the hope of finding
    cause to seek his removal as House president.  Supreme
    Judicial Council Magistrate Angelino Lizcano told us Uribe
    allies could also legally delay conference committee action
    until July when a new House president takes office.  Once
    approved in Congress, the measure would move to the
    Constitutional Court for approval and then to the referendum.

    OPPOSITION STRATEGY: ABSTAIN
    ----------------------------

    10 (C) Former President and Liberal Party Chief Cesar Gaviria

    agreed Uribe wants a third term, but said his original
    "F.D.R. 1940 nomination by popular acclaim" strategy had not
    worked.   Still, he said Uribe could still pull off
    reelection with a hard push.   If Uribe succeeded in amending
    the constitution, he would be the heavy, odds-on favorite to
    win.  As shown by the support of former Liberal Senator
    Rodrigo Rivera and twenty-two current sitting Liberal Party
    legislators for Uribe's Democratic Security Policy, the
    president commands substantial backing even within the
    opposition Liberals.  Liberal Party Senator Juan Cristo and
    Polo Party President Carlos Gaviria told us  the opposition's
    best hope to block a third Uribe term would be an abstention
    campaign which prevented Uribe from meeting the required 25%
    turnout in the referendum.
    NICHOLS

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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