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### Viewing cable 10OTTAWA12, LIBERALS CHART RENEWAL IN 2010

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10OTTAWA12 | 2010-01-05 20:08 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXYZ0006
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHOT #0012/01 0052039
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 052038Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0230
    INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

` `

    UNCLAS OTTAWA 000012

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: LIBERALS CHART RENEWAL IN 2010

    REF: OTTAWA 0001; 09 OTTAWA 909; 09 OTTAWA 954; 09 OTTAWA 341

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Liberal Party of Canada plans an eighteen
    month program of policy renewal, rebuilding, and member engagement
    to "inspire, engage, activate" the party faithful between now and
    its next biennial convention in June 2011.  It will also organize a
    long-delayed "thinkers' conference" in Montreal in March to cast
    around for new campaign themes and policy ideas, apparently
    conceding that a 2010 election may not be in the cards.  The
    Liberals' muted response to PM Harper's late December prorogation
    of Parliament (ref b) suggests a lack of energy and hands-on
    leadership (Michael Ignatieff reportedly remains on vacation in
    France), however.   The party's "transformational" process sets
    high goals, but a similar 2006 renewal exercise did not meet
    expectations.  The  Liberals face a tough road ahead if they hope
    to beat the Conservatives in the next federal election - whether in
    2010 or 2011.  End summary.

    2009 "A TOUGH YEAR"

    ¶2.  (SBU)  Despite the new leadership of Michael Ignatieff, a
    reported tripling of membership, a 50% increase in fundraising
    (almost all of which the Liberals collected in the first half of
    2009, however) , and a five-fold rise in the donor base over 2008,
    Liberal Party National President Alfred Apps conceded to party
    members in an end-of-year message that 2009 had been a "tough
    year."  From the high of the April-May convention in Vancouver
    (ref.d), the party misread public aversion for another election and
    slumped in the polls in August after Ignatieff started publicly to
    vow to bring down the government of Conservative Prime Minister
    Stephen Harper in the fall.  By mid-December, the Liberals were ten
    points behind the Conservatives, and Ignatieff personally trailed
    PM Harper on indices of trust, competence, vision and leadership,
    even ranking behind New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton
    on overall leadership and trust.  Apps' message did not refer to a
    possible election in 2010, instead urging members to continue to
    work to regain Canadians' confidence and to form a new government
    "whenever the next opportunity comes."

    THE ROAD AHEAD

    ¶3.   (SBU) Apps nonetheless expressed confidence that the party had
    "now turned a page."  He set out a framework of continuing renewal
    over the next eighteen months, punctuated by a so-called
    non-partisan "thinkers' conference" in March in Montreal and a
    biennial party convention in June 2011.  He called on grassroots
    members to consolidate gains in membership and fundraising, to
    reinvigorate local organization, and to help chart "a clear and
    positive vision" for the country's future through the policy
    renewal process.  Apps promised that the March conference would be
    "the most open, transparent and inclusive debate about Canada's
    future that has ever been conducted by a Canadian political party,"
    with ideas from the conference, including party members' comments,
    feeding into the policy development process.

    BRAINSTORMING IN SPRING

    ¶4.  (SBU) The "thinkers' conference" - formally entitled "Canada at
    150: Rising to the Challenge" -- will take place March 26 to 28 in
    Montreal, Quebec.  In a December press release, Ignatieff had said
    that it would look ahead to "the Canada we can be on our country's
    150th birthday" in 2017 - "and what we need to do today and
    tomorrow to get there."  Ignatieff had initially promised the
    policy brainstorming exercise in 2008 as part of his first
    unsuccessful leadership bid, and next committed to holding one
    within his first 100 days of becoming leader.  However, the
    conference has since been twice postponed, first to September 2009,
    then to January 2010.   According to one Liberal staffer, the party
    is only going forward with it now "because we said we would do it."
    However, after the reorganization of Ignatieff's office in late
    October 2009, a senior Ignatieff staffer told PolMinCons that the
    party would push back the date to March, expand the event, and
    promote it as a renewal tool.

    ¶5.  (SBU) In late December, Ignatieff also announced that he would
    kick off a "national conversation" with a cross-Canada tour of
    colleges and universities, beginning in Nova Scotia on January 11
    and ending on January 18 in Ottawa, with stops in Montreal,
    Hamilton, Mississauga (Toronto), Winnipeg, Calgary, Vancouver, and
    Victoria.  Ignatieff promised that all Canadians would be able to
    join the discussion through town hall meetings, roundtables,
    online, and through an official "Canada at 150" website that the
    party plans to launch "soon."  The party has not yet released a
    speakers' line-up or discussion topics.

    TAKING STOCK

    ¶6.   (U)  The Liberals have also set the date for its next biennial
    convention, from June 15 to 19, 2011 in Ottawa.  The 2009 Vancouver
    convention (which organizers had admitted would focus primarily on
    administrative and organizational reform -- "plumbing and engine
    stuff" -- set ambitious benchmarks for fundraising, membership
    growth, organizational renewal, and policy participation targets to
    review in 2011.  In January 2009, shortly after he became leader,
    Ignatieff had named both a renewal committee and a separate
    "change" commission to report on progress and policy development,
    building on work begun under St????phane Dion in 2008.  Similarly,
    after the election defeat in 2006, the Liberals had appointed a
    renewal commission of 32 task forces headed by prominent Liberals
    and experts - but then effectively shelved the reports.  A
    forward-looking "2020 conference" in 2006 chaired by former Liberal
    Deputy Prime Minister John Manley also produced few policy ripples.
    Liberal staffers privately have admitted that translating process
    to policy book remains a significant challenge.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Comment:  The Liberals may be starting 2010 with a
    roadmap, but the party's muted response to PM Harper's late
    December prorogation of Parliament suggests a lack of energy and
    hands-on leadership -- Ignatieff has reportedly not yet returned
    from vacation in France.  The Liberals have also just lost their
    second national director in one year and have yet to name a
    replacement.  National President Apps is also due to set down in
    March.  Parliament's new return date of  March 3, followed by a the
    introduction of the federal budget on March 4 (and ensuing
    confidence votes), makes the timing of the "thinkers" conference
    especially awkward.  Moreover, the exercise is unfortunately
    familiar to the party faithful, and likely too heavy on process.
    The Liberals face a tough road ahead if they hope to beat the
    Conservatives in the next federal election - whether in 2010 or
    ¶2011.
    JACOBSON

`