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### Viewing cable 06HALIFAX35, NOVA SCOTIA'S TORIES GO FOR YOUTH

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06HALIFAX35 | 2006-02-13 14:02 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Halifax

`

    VZCZCXRO5020
    PP RUEHGA RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHHA #0035/01 0441414
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P R 131414Z FEB 06
    FM AMCONSUL HALIFAX
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0940
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0337
    RUEHHA/AMCONSUL HALIFAX 1000

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HALIFAX 000035

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
    SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA'S TORIES GO FOR YOUTH

    REF: 05  HALIFAX 025

    HALIFAX 00000035  001.2 OF 002

    ¶1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  Nova Scotia's Progressive Conservatives opted
    for generational change February 11, choosing a 34 year old
    member of the legislature from Cape Breton as the next Premier
    of Nova Scotia, replacing 67 year old John Hamm.  Rodney
    MacDonald is well known to us and has his predecessor's interest
    in good U.S. - Canada relations.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (U)  Nova Scotia's Progressive Conservative party selected a
    new leader February 11.  Rodney Macdonald, MLA from Inverness,
    Cape Breton, beat out two rivals for the party leadership and
    will be sworn in February 24 as Premier, replacing John Hamm who
    announced last fall that he was stepping down.  Nova Scotia is
    seeing a literal generational change in leadership -- MacDonald,
    at 34, is half Hamm's age.

    THANKS, JOHN
    ------------

    ¶3.  (U)  The party sent Hamm out in style February 10.  The
    Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister and Fisheries Minister
    all attended the event, which included tributes from fellow
    Premiers, music by the Cape Breton master of all stringed
    instruments J.P. Cormier and a guest appearance by former
    Ambassador Paul Cellucci, who had worked with Hamm since their
    days as members of the New England Governors - Eastern Canadian
    Premiers meetings.  At the farewell event party faithful banged
    thundersticks that had "Thanks John" written on them, a video
    spoofed Hamm's conservative dress and made sometimes
    not-so-gentle fun of the provincial Liberal and NDP leaders, and
    speakers praised the Premier's dedication, perseverance and
    integrity in pursuit of balanced budgets and his "Campaign for
    Fairness" which eventually led to Nova Scotia and
    Newfoundland-Labrador receiving the full benefit of offshore
    energy resources.

    ¶4.  (U)  Hamm told CG in early February that he felt part of his
    legacy was a vibrant political culture that produced three
    well-qualified potential successors.  During the tribute to the
    Premier, held the night before the vote to succeed him, CG spoke
    with more than a dozen delegates and journalists, none of whom
    was willing to predict anything but an extremely close first
    ballot in the race to choose the new party leader and Premier.

    WELCOME, RODNEY
    ---------------

    ¶5.  (U)  True enough, the leadership convention's first vote on
    Hamm's successor as party leader was almost evenly split.  60
    votes out of about 2,200 cast separated first and third place.
    Rodney MacDonald led Bill Black -- a retired insurance executive
    and the apparent choice of the Halifax business community -- by
    789 votes to 742, with former provincial Finance Minister Neil
    Leblanc polling 730.  Convention rules required Leblanc to drop
    out and he honored the agreement he and MacDonald had made that
    whoever finished third would throw his support to the other.  In
    the second round of voting Black picked up over 100 Leblanc
    votes but Macdonald easily carried the day with 1,263.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶6.  (SBU)  Although Premier Hamm was officially neutral in the
    contest to pick his successor, it seemed clear to a number of
    observers that he has been grooming MacDonald for bigger things
    for some time.  In addition to MacDonald's portfolio as Tourism
    Minister and Minister Responsible for Health Promotion he was
    also put in charge of the province's immigration strategy in
    2005 (reftel).  CG has met MacDonald both formally and socially
    on a number of occasions and has been impressed with his
    accessibility and interest in good bilateral relations.  Our
    Consular Section has helped MacDonald, who has worked
    professionally as a fiddle player, with several inquiries about
    cross-border travel for musicians.  We see no reason to think
    that the new Premier of Nova Scotia will be any different than
    in predecessor in wanting good bilateral relations.

    ¶7.  (SBU)  How the new Premier will fare with provincial
    politics and on the national stage will be interesting to watch.
     Macdonald takes over a minority government that has a strong
    and effective opposition in the NDP, but which has worked
    relatively harmoniously with the opposition.  In the short term
    he will have to continue the working relationship Hamm and his
    senior staff developed with the NDP and Liberals to get budgets
    and legislation passed.  He will also have to decide fairly
    quickly when to call a provincial election and seek his own
    majority.  One opposition member with whom we spoke recently
    said he expects a late spring election, after school is out and
    Halifax's significant population of university students goes
    home; the downside of that for MacDonald is that a provincial
    vote so soon could cause a backlash against the Tories from

    HALIFAX 00000035  002.2 OF 002

    voters who were just at the polls in January for the federal
    election.

    ¶8.  (SBU)  In MacDonald's favor in the next election is that he
    could attract younger urban voters to a party that has its base
    among older voters in rural Nova Scotia.  Hamm, a respected
    former country doctor from a rural area, would likely campaign
    for him to reassure rural voters that they had nothing to fear
    from the new Premier.  MacDonald's chief rival, Bill Black, is
    the nominee in a downtown Halifax riding that was vacated by a
    Liberal.  The Tories need to secure that seat, although it will
    mean that MacDonald will almost certainly have to give a once
    and possibly future opponent a job in the cabinet.

    ¶9.  (SBU)  Nationally, MacDonald will be by far the youngest
    Premier, and will need to develop his own gravitas in order to
    be taken seriously at the First Ministers' meetings.  We expect
    that he will be cautious at first on the national scene, working
    out of the spotlight to forge alliances with other Premiers and
    at least initially only seeking wider attention on issues of
    direct concern to Nova Scotia that will play well at home.  With
    time, however, depending on how long he is able to remain
    Premier, he has the potential to become one of the
    longer-serving and influential Premiers.  We do not have the
    sense at this point that he has ambitions for national political
    office, but if he is still in office 10 years from now that
    could well have changed.

    BIO INFORMATION
    ------------

    ¶10.  (U)  We have already transmitted separately bio information
    on Premier-designate MacDonald.
    HILL

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