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### Viewing cable 07WELLINGTON141, NZ PONDERS FUTURE FIJI, SOLOMONS POLICIES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07WELLINGTON141 | 2007-02-14 01:01 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXRO6657
    PP RUEHPB
    DE RUEHWL #0141/01 0450154
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 140154Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3874
    INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 4734
    RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA PRIORITY 0562
    RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 0635

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000141

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EAP/FO AND EAP/ANP

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017
    TAGS: PREL PGOV XB XV FJ NZ
    SUBJECT: NZ PONDERS FUTURE FIJI, SOLOMONS POLICIES

    REF: A. WELLINGTON 69
         ¶B. WELLINGTON 68
         ¶C. 06 WELLINGTON 966

    Classified By: DCM David J. Keegan,
    for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1.  (C) Summary. PM Clark strongly supports the timeline and
    processes recently discussed by Australian, New Zealand, and
    US officials to encourage Fiji's return to democracy.  The
    GNZ believes that the upcoming Pacific Island Forum (PIF)
    Eminent Person's Group report on Fiji will be key to
    determining whether the PIF can place constructive pressure
    on Fiji's interim government to improve its human rights
    record and accept a timeline for new elections.  The EPG's
    draft report is apparently quite firm, but NZ officials are
    concerned it may be toned down by senior PNG and Vanuatu
    leaders reluctant to erode Melanesian solidarity.  The GNZ
    also continues to monitor the Solomon Island's with concern,
    and believes the GOSI's dispute with the Regional Assistance
    Mission (RAMSI) may be at a critical point.  NZ officials
    worry that the simultaneous conflicts in the Solomons and
    Fiji may overwhelm the PIF and break down unity within the
    group.  End Summary

    ¶2.  (C) PM Clark is fully on board with the approach to Fiji
    endorsed by U.S., Australian, and NZ officials during their
    recent meetings in Hawaii, Deputy Foreign Secretary Alan
    Williams told DCM and Pol-Econ Couns on February 12.
    Williams said the PM intends to retain NZ's sanctions (ref C)
    until Fiji's interim agrees to a specific timetable for a
    return to elections.  At that point, the GNZ will review
    whether to loosen up sanctions as well as consider electoral
    and other possible assistance.

    -------------------------
    EPG Delivers Firm Message
    -------------------------

    ¶3.  (C) The DCM noted that even with a timetable for
    elections, it will be hard to make real progress without an
    improvement in Fiji's human rights situation.  Williams
    agreed, noting that the upcoming Pacific Island Forum (PIF)
    Eminent Persons Group report to PIF Foreign Ministers will
    play a key role in determining whether the group will place
    effective pressure on PM Bainimarama and his appointees.  The
    GNZ has heard that the draft report does in fact deliver a
    united, firm message on what Fiji needs to do to return to
    democracy. It calls for a suspension of the state of
    emergency, a return of the military to the barracks, the
    appointment of a civilian PM before the elections, and a
    credible date to be set for elections within 15-24 months.
    Williams attributed the strong message to the fact that that
    the PNG and Vanuatu EPG members were reportedly even more
    shocked than others in the group by the strong climate of
    fear they found in post-Coup Fiji. They apparently feel the
    Fijian Foreign Minister misled the December meeting of the
    Melanesian Spearhead group, which came out in solidarity with
    Fiji.  (Using a Kiwi expression we had not heard before,
    Williams said that they felt they had been "sold a pup.")
    But Williams acknowledged that EPG's draft may be softened if
    senior PNG and Vanuatu leaders believe the report is too
    detrimental to Melanesian Spearhead Group unity.

    ¶4.  (C) Williams said that Bainimarama appeared very
    confident when he met with the EPG.  The Commodore put a
    statement into the EPG report noting it will be at least five
    years before Fiji can hold elections, and all sanctions must
    be removed before any balloting takes place.  Figuring out
    "how to get rid of Frank" will be key to resolving the
    situation in Fiji, Williams said.  Although Bainimarama
    claims Fiji needs at least five years to drive out corruption
    before elections can be held, in reality he is focused on
    keeping out of jail.  Fiji's statute of limitations run
    between three and five years, so Bainimarama will not be keen
    to hold elections within two years unless he has some
    guarantee of immunity.  On the other hand, a united PIF
    front, coupled with Fiji's desire to be back in the fold and
    the unfreezing of assistance, could break the impasse.  For
    this reason, Williams said, we should maintain pressure to
    get Fiji to agree to the timeline and processes discussed in
    Hawaii.

    --------------------------------------------- ----
    Possible NZ Assistance to Fiji Democracy Building
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶5.  (C) Michael Green, NZ's High Commissioner in Suva, was in
    Wellington last week and met with PM Clark and Williams.

    WELLINGTON 00000141  002 OF 002

    Green pointed out that that there has not been a robust
    census in Fiji for at least 12-13 years.  If the interim Fiji
    government agrees to a timeline, Williams said one useful
    form of assistance might be to do a new census and advise on
    a new seat allocation for Parliament.  Over the longer term,
    it might also be helpful to provide advice on reform of
    Fiji's constitution, which currently enforces a multi-party
    system without mandating any inter-party negotiation.  This
    has increased internal conflicts and undermined public faith
    in government.

    -----------------------------
    Critical Juncture in Solomons
    -----------------------------

    ¶6.  (C) Williams said that New Zealand continues to monitor
    the Solomon Islands with concern, as events there -- notably
    the GOSI's opposition to RAMSI -- may be reaching a critical
    juncture.  Simultaneous pressures from events in Fiji and the
    Solomons could undermine PIF coherence, he added.  Williams
    passed along "fulsome thanks" to EAP DAS Davies for having
    stressed to PM Sogavare that it is critical that the GOSI
    continue to cooperate with RAMSI. Williams added that while
    GNZ has been a bit more light-handed publicly in its approach
    to the GOSI than has Australia, they understood why Foreign
    Minister Downer felt he had no other choice but to speak out
    openly. FM Peters prefers to deliver his strong messages to
    GOSI behind closed doors, but he and other Kiwi officials
    have been coordinating exceptionally closely with their
    Australian counterparts. Now that both the Acting Police
    Commissioner and his Deputy are Kiwis, New Zealand may find
    itself forced to express its concerns more directly from now
    on, Williams added.
    McCormick

`