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### Viewing cable 03ANKARA6535, TURKEY: GREY WOLVES RE-ELECT PACK LEADER BAHCELI

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ANKARA6535 | 2003-10-17 14:02 | 2011-04-20 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006535

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2013
    TAGS: PREL PGOV TU
    SUBJECT: TURKEY: GREY WOLVES RE-ELECT PACK LEADER BAHCELI

    (C) Classified by Deputy Political Counselor Charles O.
    Blaha. Reason: 1.5 (b,d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Ultra-nationalist MHP delegates Oct. 12
    re-elected Devlet Bahceli as party Chairman.  Our contacts in
    the party suggest there will not be many changes either to
    the party administration or the party line -- deep skepticism
    towards the EU and US and paranoia concerning Kurds in Turkey
    and Iraq.  Without significant changes, at least in the party
    hierarchy, contacts outside the party suggest MHP will not be
    able to regain its 1999 form, when it garnered 19 percent of
    the vote in the national elections. End Summary.

    ¶2. (C) At an uninspired Oct. 12 party convention attended by
    poloff, delegates for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)
    overwhelmingly supported the re-election of former Deputy PM
    Devlet Bahceli as party chairman.  Bahceli received 688 votes
    of the 1127 cast.  His next closest competitor, long-time MHP
    grassroots figure Ramiz Ongun, received 300 votes.  In a
    distant third place, Koray Aydin -- whose time as Public
    Works Minister in the most recent Ecevit government was
    clouded by corruption allegations -- received 137 votes.

    ¶3. (C) The atmosphere at the MHP convention contrasted
    starkly with ruling AK Party's scripted convention held on
    the same day.  Perhaps an indicator of internal party
    tensions, delegates could not agree on the convention's
    supervisory board until 2 p.m., after which the official
    proceedings began -- long after the 10 a.m. start time listed
    in the convention agenda handed out at the gate.  Although
    the convention hall was packed with party supporters, the
    audience lacked enthusiasm and only offered half-hearted
    attempts at chanting "Prime Minister Bahceli."

    ¶4. (C) In his address to the crowd, Bahceli strongly
    criticized the AK Government's Iraq policy, claiming the GOT
    had surrendered to outside powers.  He said the GOT has
    dishonored Turkey and has not pursued any policies that have
    benefited the Turkish nation.  Opposition CHP Vice Chairman
    and close Embassy contact Sinan Yerlikaya, who attended the
    MHP convention, told poloff Oct. 17 that after hearing
    Bahceli's speech, he believes MHP will react quickly and
    loudly to any Turkish casualties resulting from a troop
    deployment to Iraq (Note: CHP also opposes deploying Turkish
    troops. End Note).  In a subsequent Oct. 17 conversation,
    Huseyin Kocabiyik, who once served as advisor to former PM
    Ciller and who maintains extensive contacts on the political
    right, echoed Yerlikaya's sentiment, saying that Bahceli's
    speech suggests the party will organize its extensive
    grassroots youth organizations in universities and elsewhere
    to demonstrate against the GOT, especially if Turkish troops
    take casualties.

    ---------------
    Change of Heart
    ---------------

    ¶5. (C) Following the Nov. 2002 national elections, which left
    MHP entirely out of Parliament after being the second largest
    party in the legislature, Bahceli had promised not to stand
    again for party chairman -- at the time, a nearly
    unprecedented move by a Turkish political leader.  However,
    in the months leading up to the convention, our MHP contacts
    began telling us Bahceli would make a comeback.

    ¶6. (C) In a Sept. 24 meeting with poloff, MHP Deputy
    Secretary General Mehmet Telek said one reason Bahceli

    SIPDIS
    decided to stand for election again is that he has
    re-discovered the MHP idealists (Ulkuculer) -- also known as
    Grey Wolves -- with whom he had tried to break since first
    becoming MHP chairman in 1997.  (Note: Many of our contacts
    on the political right point to the Bahceli-idealist
    disconnect as a major factor in the party's failure last Nov.
    End Note).  Telek explained that, originally, Bahceli wanted
    to disassociate the party from the idealists' deserved
    reputation for violence.  To do so, Bahceli began closing
    down idealist organizations and purging the administrative
    ranks of the more seedy elements.  Telek claims that the
    idealists "have gotten the message" and are now more
    "moderate."  As a result, Bahceli feels more comfortable
    dealing with this important element of the party's grassroots
    organization.

    ------------
    What's Next?
    ------------
    ¶7. (C) Our contacts suggest that Bahceli will make at least
    some changes to the party administration.  Mehmet Telek
    acknowledged that the party will bring in some new faces, but
    he does not believe there will be very many additions.  MHP
    Vice Chairman and close Embassy contact Sevket Bulent Yahnici
    told us after the convention that the party assembly will
    choose MHP executives (Vice Chairmen, administrative board)
    next week.  Yahnici, who has largely withdrawn from party
    activities and does not expect to serve as Vice Chairman
    again, was dismissive of any potential changes.  He averred
    that any new party executives will be chosen by the current
    unsuccessful, Bahceli-led administration.  As a result, the
    party will have the same uninspired leadership with little
    "vitality," he claimed.

    ¶8. (C) Many of our contacts tell us that Bahceli's
    re-election will not lift MHP out of the doldrums.  Kocabiyik
    claimed that with Bahceli as chairman, MHP supporters may
    increasingly slide to center-right True Path Party (DYP), led
    by strong nationalist Mehmet Agar.  Yahnici said Bahceli and
    his team will not be able to rally the party's grassroots to
    their full potential.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶9. (C) Although our contacts largely dismiss Bahceli and his
    cronies as uninspiring, MHP is a rooted political phenomenon
    in Turkey with a solid base of support -- a base with a
    sordid past.  At times, MHP has been able to mobilize this
    base in support of its hard-line nationalist policies --
    including a skepticism towards the EU and US intentions and
    neuralgia concerning the Kurds.  Support for the party could
    increase if nationalist sentiments rise.  Nevertheless, right
    now support for the party seems a far cry from the numbers it
    enjoyed in 1999, when voters -- caught up in the nationalist
    fervor following Ocalan's capture and tired of politics as
    usual -- made MHP the second largest party in Parliament.
    Indeed, the party -- its current leadership, in particular --
    are still tainted by the perceived failures of the last
    coalition government.
    EDELMAN

`