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### Viewing cable 04QUITO2594, ECUADOR ELECTIONS: QUITO/PICHINCHA RACES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04QUITO2594 | 2004-09-24 18:06 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002594

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
    SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTIONS: QUITO/PICHINCHA RACES
    STABILIZING IN FAVOR OF INCUMBENTS

    REF: QUITO 2449

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  With 19% of the national vote, the
    electoral battle for Pichincha province, which includes the
    capital of Quito (itself 15% of the national vote), is a key
    test of the Democratic Left's (ID) strength.  The Quito mayor
    race overshadows the Pichincha provincial prefect race in
    national significance.  Polls show popular incumbent mayor
    Paco Moncayo building a strong lead over his nearest rival,
    former mayor Rodrigo Paz.  Both candidates are supportive of
    USG interests in the capital.  End Summary.

    Background
    ----------

    ¶2.  (U) Pichincha province goes to the polls on October 17 to
    elect a provincial prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent) and
    seven provincial councilors, as well as 43 mayors and their
    corresponding city councilors and 59 town councils,  Of the
    1.7 million eligible voters in Pichincha province, 1.3
    million of them live in the capital of Quito.

    ¶3.  (U) General (Ret) Paco Moncayo was elected mayor in 2000
    after a long and illustrious military career.  Moncayo won
    heading a Democratic Left Party (ID) ticket at the invitation
    of ID leader Rodrigo Borja.  However, Moncayo is quick to
    point out that he is not personally a member of the ID, but
    runs with their support.  Ecuador's largest indigenous party,
    Pachakutik, is also supporting Moncayo, having obtained in
    exchange the temporary post of acting mayor during the
    campaign.

    ¶4.  (U) Moncayo's lead rival, Rodrigo Paz, served as mayor of
    Quito 1988-92.  Paz, who runs a major banking empire, is best
    known to the public as the flamboyant and successful owner of
    a major national league soccer team.  Paz entered politics
    from business at the invitation of then-president Jaime
    Roldos of the Popular Democratic Party (DP), and has
    distanced himself from the DP since the downfall of the
    Mahuad administration.  (Paz had groomed Mahuad to replace
    him as mayor in 1992.)  Paz is now running at the head of a
    local political grouping he created entitled "Quito in
    Action."

    ¶5.  (U) While the Quito race is essentially a two-man show,
    Ecuador's national parties are fielding candidates.  PRIAN,
    the party of billionaire banana magnate / two-time
    presidential runner up Alvaro Noboa, offers physician Marcelo
    Cruz, Noboa's 1996 running mate.  The Coast-based PRE,
    traditionally weak in the highlands, chose businessman
    Eduardo de la Cadena.  Predictably, his greatest aspiration
    lies in meeting party founder (and fugitive from justice)
    Abdala Bucaram.  Finally, President Lucio Gutierrez's PSP
    fields former Housing Minister Ermel Fiallo.  None of the
    three garners even five percent support in recent polling,
    however.

    Polls Show Moncayo Pulling Ahead
    --------------------------------

    ¶6.  (U) Recent polls taken at the beginning of September show
    incumbent Mayor Paco Moncayo enjoying a 12-15 point lead over
    former Mayor Rodrigo Paz.  One poll indicated that Moncayo
    enjoys more support among women voters (55%) than men (46%).
    Moncayo also had high approval (56%) among youthful voters
    (ages 18-24 years).

    ¶7.  (U) Polls also show a coattails effect benefiting the ID
    prefectural candidate for Pichincha, Ramiro Gonzalez, who
    leads Paz's prefectural counterpart, Wilma Salgado, by 37% to
    22%.  PSP candidate Napoleon Villa, the president's
    brother-in-law, scored less than 2%, likely due to recurring
    rumors of corruption.

    Paz: Unfair Playing Field
    -------------------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) In a September 21 meeting with PolCouns, Paz
    accused Moncayo of using his incumbency as an unfair
    advantage to evade campaign finance limits.  Those limits are
    artificially low, he said, with just $40,118 as the limit for
    the mayoral race in the capital (second only to the $44,126
    limit for the mayorship of Guayaquil).  According to the
    electoral watchdog group Citizen Participation, Paz has
    already exceeded his limit, spending $52,000 on publicity by
    September 21.  Paz claimed Moncayo is using municipal funds
    to publicize public works under his administration.

    Electoral Issues
    ----------------

    ¶9.  (U) Moncayo's popularity derives largely from a series of
    public works transportation projects and the successful
    clean-up of Quito's historic center.  Critics fault him for
    getting off to a slow start at the outset of his political
    career, but even Paz credits him with these more recent
    successes.  Paz promises to do Moncayo one better on public
    works, criticizing his slowness breaking ground for a new
    airport.  Paz has used the issue of citizen insecurity in the
    face of rising crime rates to attack Moncayo's performance.
    Paz told PolCouns he believes Moncayo, as an ex-General who
    has presided over the city at a time of rising crime rates,
    is vulnerable on the security issue.  Paz' campaign has
    focused on poorer neighborhoods where crime concerns are
    highest.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶10.  (SBU) The Embassy enjoys good working relationships with
    both Moncayo and Paz.  Either would continue to be supportive
    of Embassy administrative concerns, including the
    construction of a new Chancery compound, in which Moncayo has
    already been helpful.

    ¶11.  (SBU) The Democratic Left Party carries the burden and
    enjoys the advantages of incumbency in these races.  It has
    most to lose in Pichincha, its heartland, and in Quito, a
    plum political stepping-stone to national office.  A loss of
    the mayorship or prefect would represent a stunning blow to
    the party's national standing.  By all accounts, such a
    reversal appears highly unlikely, and Mayor Moncayo seems set
    to repeat his term.
    KENNEY

`