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### Viewing cable 05SANJOSE2386, ELECTION SEASON IN COSTA RICA OFFICIALLY BEGINS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05SANJOSE2386 | 2005-10-13 19:07 | 2011-03-15 21:09 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy San Jose

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002386

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM CS
    SUBJECT: ELECTION SEASON IN COSTA RICA OFFICIALLY BEGINS

    REF: A. SAN JOSE 1298

         ¶B. SAN JOSE 1408
         ¶C. SAN JOSE 1571
         ¶D. SAN JOSE 1721

    ¶1.  Summary: The GOCR officially launched its 2006 election
    cycle on Saturday, October 1.  The February 5 ballot will be
    a crowded one: fourteen presidential candidates have been
    certified by the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE).  The field
    of candidates for the Legislative Assembly is similarly
    crowded, with a number of parties likely to win token
    representation.  Participation by so many divergent parties
    divides opposition to front-runner Oscar Arias and increases
    his chances for a first-round win.  With the official launch
    of the election cycle, parties that successfully participated
    in the last elections can begin to receive government
    funding.  Voter apathy remains a major concern.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  Fourteen presidential candidates have been certified by
    the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE).  The field of
    candidates for the Legislative Assembly is similarly crowded:
    each nationally registered party may nominate a block of
    candidates, and voters simply select their party of choice.
    Winners are apportioned among the parties based on the
    proportion of votes received for their list of candidates.
    Hence, candidates at the top of a party's list have a much
    greater chance of actually being elected than those at the
    bottom.  With fourteen parties represented nationally,
    however, and little name recognition beyond the first few
    candidates, next year's legislative assembly will likely
    consist of legislators from many different parties.

    ¶3. Ironically, the desire to prevent Oscar Arias from
    returning to the presidency may result in his easy victory in
    the first round.  The crowded presidential field contains a
    number of candidates who split from Arias's National
    Liberation Party (PLN) when the Constitutional Court ruled
    that he could run again.  Since none of the candidates have
    clearly risen above the others or promulgated a distinct
    platform, the competition has divided and diluted much of the
    opposition to Arias.  Most recent polls show support for
    Arias hovering near 40 percent--the level necessary to win
    outright and avoid a run-off.  His nearest competition, Otton
    Solis, is polling at a distant 15 percent.  Numerous attempts
    to form a coalition to oppose Arias have collapsed, leaving a
    fractured opposition that has little chance of defeating him
    (Reftel D).

    ¶4. Campaign Finance: now that the election has officially
    begun, registered parties who won at least four percent of
    the national vote or at least one Assembly seat in the last
    election will receive campaign assistance funds from the
    government and will begin advertising in earnest.  The amount
    of governmental campaign funds available is set at 0.19
    percent of GDP, or just over USD 29 million for this cycle,
    by article 96 of the Constitution.  The same article allows
    for the percentage to be adjusted downward by the Assembly.
    Owing perhaps to recent corruption scandals and campaign
    finance irregularities, a number of candidates are engaging
    in a "race to the bottom," with each calling on the Assembly
    to approve ever-diminishing amounts.  The low bidder so far
    is Otton Solis, from the Citizens Action Party (PAC), who has
    said 0.08 percent of GDP should be sufficient.  Since these
    monies are only now available for use, several candidates
    have been advertising for weeks or even months using their
    own financing.  Oscar Arias has been particularly visible,
    having mounted expensive print, radio, television, and direct
    calling programs.  Political parties that did not
    successfully participate in the last elections do not receive
    government funding until after the elections when they can be
    reimbursed for a percentage of certain expenses, depending on
    the portion of the national vote their candidates obtained.
    Campaign expenses incurred before the October 1 official
    start, whether by new or established parties, are not
    reimbursable.

    ¶5. Despite the fierce debate among candidates over several
    themes of national importance, including corruption, free
    trade, crime, and the economy, voter apathy is rampant.  Most
    recent surveys have shown that as much as 40 percent of
    eligible voters may have decided already not to vote.  Should
    this trend continue, the eventual winner will have a
    difficult time claiming a mandate, and the debate over
    CAFTA-DR could become even more acrimonious.
    FRISBIE

`