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### Viewing cable 06QUITO2064, ECUADOR ELECTION: THEN THERE WERE SEVENTEEN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06QUITO2064 | 2006-08-16 21:09 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #2064/01 2282114
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 162114Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5059
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5877
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1933
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 0011
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0857
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0983
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 002064

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EC
    SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTION: THEN THERE WERE SEVENTEEN

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  The registration period for all
    candidates running for office in October 15 elections closed
    on August 15, attracting an unprecedented seventeen
    presidential aspirants. Eccentric billionaire candidate
    Alvaro Noboa announced his reentry, oddly declaring himself
    "a hero of God who will slay his cowardly adversaries."
    Meanwhile, PAIS movement candidate Rafael Correa has taken
    some heat for not entering congressional candidates, pledging
    instead to immediately convoke a constituent assembly to
    change the constitution.  The proliferation of presidential
    candidates will make elections more complicated to administer
    and ensure continued political fragmentation.  End Summary.

    Seventeen Presidential Candidates Registered
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U) Seventeen presidential candidates, with a
    disproportionate number of the major contenders hailing from
    Guayaquil, have now registered (up from 11 in 2002, and only
    six in 1998), including eccentric billionaire Alvaro Noboa,
    who reentered the race at the last minute and told the press
    that he felt obligated as a centrist to offer a
    non-traditional candidacy in opposition to Rafael Correa.
    Going further, Noboa claimed to be a religious hero and with
    the bible in hand would beat his cowardly adversaries.
    Current registered candidates, in rough descending order of
    popularity according to recent polls, include:

    ¶1.  Leon Roldos (24%), RED/Democratic Left Alliance (RED/ID)
    Movement.  VP Ramiro Gonzalez (ID)

    ¶2.  Cynthia Viteri (17%), Social Christian Party (PSC). VP
    Ernesto Davalos.

    ¶3.  Rafael Correa (10%), PAIS Alliance (PAIS) Movement.  VP
    Lenin Moreno.

    ¶4.  Alvaro Noboa  (10%). Institutional Renewal Party of
    National Action (PRIAN  VP Vincente Taiano.

    ¶5.  Fernando Rosero (3%), Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE).
    VP Susy Mendoza.

    ¶6.  Gilmar Gutierrez (n/a), Patriotic Society Party (PSP).
    VP Leonardo Escobar.

    ¶7.  Jaime Damerval (1%), Concentration of People's Forces
    (CFP) Party. VP Lida Moreno.

    ¶8.  Luis Macas (1%), Pluri-National Pachakutik United
    Movement (PK).  VP Cesar Sacoto.

    ¶9.  Luis Villacis (1%), Democratic People's Movement (MPD).
    VP Cesar Buelva.

    ¶10.  Marco Proano Maya (1%), Movement for Democratic
    Vindication (MRD).  VP Galo Cabanilla.

    ¶11.  Marcelo Aguinaga (n/a), National Conciliation Movement
    (MCN).  VP Jorge Norero.

    ¶12.  Marcelo Larrea (n/a), Third Republic Bolivarian Allianca
    Movement (ALBA).  VP Miguel Moran.

    ¶13.  Franklin Munoz (n/a), National Movement to Wake Up
    Citizens, (MNDC).  VP Luis Burgos.

    ¶14.  Pedro Roura O. (n/a), Pacific Revolution (MRP).  VP
    Vladimir Roura.

    ¶15.  Carlos Sagnay (n/a), The Eclectic Movement (ME).  VP
    Luis Tuaran.

    ¶16.  Lenin Torres (n/a), Revolutionary Movement of Popular
    Participation (MRPP).  VP Maria Pareja.

    ¶7.  Julio Pincay (n/a), Ecuadorian Independent Patriotic
    Movement (MIPE).  VP Glenda Garcia.

    Correa Criticized as Aspiring "Dictator"
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶3.  (U) PAIS presidential candidate Rafael Correa did not
    register congressional candidates under the PAIS movement
    banner, saying to do so would only contribute to the
    institutional crisis.  PSC leader Leon Febres Cordero (LFC)
    publicly criticized Correa's decision as undemocratic:
    "Correa says that he will run for president, but not with a
    list of congressional representatives.  Doesn't that mean he
    is running for dictator?"  Congress President Wilfredo Lucero
    (ID) chimed in publicly, repeating the same charge on August
    14, adding that to expect the new Congress to approve a
    constituent assembly dissolving itself was ludicrous.  Any
    such assembly implies constitutional changes, requiring the
    support of a 2/3 majority in Congress.  Furthermore, he said,
    members of any assembly would "not be any more qualified or
    representative, and perhaps less so" than the newly-elected
    Congress.  While PAIS is not offering congressional
    candidates, the Socialist party which is supporting Correa,s
    presidential bid is.

    Congressional Lists Run Gamut
    -----------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) LFC heads the PSC Congressional list in Guayas, the
    PSC heartland and province with the largest population, and
    will certainly be re-elected, despite not appearing
    personally in Congress for years, for health reasons.  The
    PSC hopes to win 12 representatives in Guayas and between
    26-28 in the country.  PSC presidential candidate Cynthia
    Viteri's sister, Natalie, is second on the Guayas list.
    Meanwhile, the Red/Democratic Left Alliance (ID) had great
    difficulty agreeing on a coordinated division of candidates
    in Guayas, fueling allegations of divisions within the
    alliance.  The alliance therefore agreed to run separate
    congressional lists in Guayas, while Wilma Andrade and Andres
    Paez top the ID/RED list in Pichincha.  The PRIAN list in
    Guayas is headed by Alvaro Noboa's wife, Anabella Azin, with
    two other women, Silka Sanchez and Gloria Gallardo, filling
    out the top three spots.

    ¶5.  (U) Four parties on August 15 also registered candidates
    for the Andean Parliament.  The PSC nominated former
    congressman Marcelo Dotti, while the Democratic Christian
    Union (UDC) selected former president Sixto Duran Ballen and
    Elsa de Mena, ex-director of Ecuador's Social Security
    Administration.  PRIAN chose Hector Solorzano, Bucaram's
    former private attorney.  Roldos' ID-RED, meanwhile put up
    its national president, Guillermo Landazuri, for the
    Parliament.  Former trade minister and Ecuadorian ambassador
    to the U.S., Ivonne Baki, was nominated by the PSP.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶6.  (SBU) Noboa's re-entry into the race will alter the
    status of forces.  Though he left the race a month ago with
    only 10% support, the relative weakness of the PRE candidate
    and the TSE's likelihood of ruling out the Gutierrez ticket
    on technicalities could allow Noboa to rise to challenge
    Viteri for second place.  Regardless, administering this
    election with five different races, innumerable candidates
    and now 17 presidential contenders will challenge the TSE,
    making USG election support all the more critical.  Adding a
    15-question referendum, as proposed by President Palacio,
    would make it all but unmanageable.
    JEWELL

`