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### Viewing cable 05ABUDHABI2178, MBZ ON IRAQ, IRAN, PAKISTAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05ABUDHABI2178 | 2005-05-16 09:09 | 2010-11-28 18:06 | SECRET | Embassy Abu Dhabi

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 002178

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015
    TAGS: PREL MASS PHUM ELAB IR IZ XF SA PK FR TC
    SUBJECT: MBZ ON IRAQ, IRAN, PAKISTAN

    REF: ABU DHABI 1008

    Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison.
    For reasons 1.4 (a), (b), and (d).

    ¶1.  (U) Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed,s weekly
    Sunday "VIP Majlis" provided an excellent opportunity for a
    visiting National Defense University delegation to observe
    first-hand the UAEG,s informal consultative process.  MbZ,
    brothers MinState Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamdan and Interior
    Minister Sheikh Saif, and Labor Minister al Ka'abi were
    joined by several dozen prominent Abu Dhabi officials and
    businessmen for the weekly gathering at Bateen Palace.

    NDU
    ---

    ¶2.  (U) NDU President Lt. Gen. Dunn and National War College
    Deputy Commandant Ambassador Wahba briefed MbZ on several new
    NDU initiatives, including opportunities for UAE students in
    the Information Resources Management College program, which
    emphasizes threats, vulnerabilities, and risks in a
    net-centric environment.  Ambassador Sison praised the UAE's
    selection of NDU candidates, noting that several were serving
    in key positions today:  GHQ Armed Forces Deputy Chief of
    Staff MG Mohammed Hilal al-Kaabi, GHQ Director of General
    Procurement Obaid Al Ketbi, Deputy Commander UAE Air Force
    Brigadier Ali, and MbZ's aide Yousef al Otaiba had all
    benefited from NDU programs.

    Iraq
    ------

    ¶3.  (C) Ambassador Sison noted that day's visit to Iraq by
    Secretary Rice, highlighting the Secretary's encouragement

    SIPDIS
    for continued momentum in the political process and her
    meetings with PM al-Jaafari and KDP leader Barzani.  MbZ
    voiced disdain for al-Jaafari, citing (again) his concerns
    over the Prime Minister's ties to Iran.  These concerns were
    aimed at Jaafari's Dawaa Party colleagues, as well.  While
    agreeing that it was important for Iraq's Sunni Arabs to be
    more involved in the political process and in drafting the
    constitution, MbZ complained that "there wasn't one
    worthwhile Sunni" on the scene.  He criticized new Sunni
    Defense Minister Dulaimi as being "in it for himself."  Nor
    did MbZ have anything good to say about former Iraqi Finance
    Minister Mahdi's nomination as one of two Vice Presidents,
    complaining that Mahdi "did not work for the people of Iraq."
     Nonetheless, MbZ said he agreed with the USG's efforts to
    encourage the various Iraqi factions to work together.  The
    UAE would continue to help train Iraqi police forces at the
    UAE's police academy in Al Ain and provide reconstruction
    assistance.  It was important for the region as a whole that
    the U.S. and its allies "got it right" in Iraq, Saudi Arabia,
    and Egypt, he underscored.  (Note:  MbZ aide Yousef al Otaiba
    had a few days earlier shared with Ambassador concerns passed
    by former PM Allawi that Dulaimi was "devious," "bad news,"
    "very close" to Iranian intelligence, and had been introduced
    to the Iranians by Chalabi.   Yousef had also noted the
    UAEG,s impression Mahdi had not always been a "team player"
    in the government of former PM Allawi.  End note.)

    Iran
    ----

    ¶4.  (S) Turning to Iran, MbZ voiced certainty that the EU-3
    efforts with Iran would break down and that Iran would resume
    its nuclear activities ) if it had not already done so.
    Repeating concerns first voiced to us in February (reftel),
    MbZ appeared convinced that it was only a matter of time
    before Israel or the U.S. would strike Iranian nuclear
    facility targets.  U.S. installations in the Gulf could be
    targeted by Iran in the aftermath of such an action, he
    warned.  MbZ agreed with the USG,s tough line with Tehran
    and the Europeans.  A nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize
    the Gulf region and possibly allow terrorist access to WMD.
    MbZ asked Lt. Gen. Dunn whether it would be possible for
    &anyone8 to "take out" all locations of concern in Iran via
    air power; Lt. Gen. Dunn voiced doubt that this would be
    possible given the dispersed locations.  "Then it will take
    ground forces!" MbZ exclaimed.  Ambassador noted that the
    UAE's Director of Military Intelligence, BG Essa al Mazrouei,
    would pay counterpart visits this week to CENTCOM, J-2, DIA,
    and CIA for discussions on Iran and Iraq-related matters.
    MbZ said he looked forward to sharing "contingency planning"
    scenarios in future conversations.

    Pakistan
    --------

    ¶5.  (C) Ambassador asked about MbZ's visit the week before to
    Lahore to meet with Pakistani President Musharraf.  MbZ
    chuckled and asked why the USG "always" convinced the
    Pakistanis to delay news of the capture of senior Al Qaeda
    operatives such as Abu Faraj al Libbi.  MbZ went on to
    congratulate Washington for its decision to allow U.S. firms
    to bid for contracts to provide F-16s and other defense
    technology to Pakistan.  It was important to support
    Musharraf as he battled the terrorists, he emphasized.  While
    the Indians had and would continue to balk at the decision,
    the region needed Musharraf to stay strong.  There was no
    alternative leader in sight, MbZ opined.  Besides, he
    continued, the F-16 decision would not tip the military
    balance between India and Pakistan.  Even if it had, India's
    strength as a stable democracy would ensure that it would not
    ever be in as "risky" a situation as its neighbor.  MbZ then
    slapped his knee and said "you,ll never guess what Musharraf
    asked me...he asked me whether the UAE had received approval
    for the Predator!"  (Note:  the USG's inability to meet the
    UAE's request for an armed Predator remains a sore point for
    MbZ, although he has not directly raised the issue with us
    for some time.)

    Gyrocopter, GAWC
    ----------------

    ¶6.  (SBU) MbZ also referred to his interest in exploring
    selling the UAE's "gyrocopter" (a helicopter-supported UAV
    co-developed with Austrian company Schiebel) to the U.S. Air
    Force, an idea he first floated during Gen. Moseley,s visit
    for the May 3 F-16 ceremony.  MbZ noted that his aide would
    pass detailed gyrocopter specifications to the Embassy this
    week.  (Note: We will be exploring this initiative with
    CENTAF and CENTCOM in relation to force protection aerial
    surveillance system needs at Al Dhafra airbase for the 380 th
    Air Expeditionary Wing.  End note.)

    ¶7.  (C) Lt. Gen. Dunn complimented MbZ on the Gulf Air
    Warfare Center (GAWC), which he and the NDU group had toured
    that morning.  MbZ expressed satisfaction over the
    relationship between the UAE and U.S. Air Forces, but
    expressed disappointment that more GCC countries had not
    joined recent GAWC classes.  Ambassador noted the recent
    robust participation by Saudi Arabia in the GAWC's fourth
    class, which had included six Saudi F-15s and two young
    pilots who were also members of the Saudi royal family.  MbZ
    asked whether the two high-ranking Saudis had actually
    completed all requirements for graduation or had been "passed
    through."  Ambassador confirmed that they had completed all
    course requirements.   MbZ commented that "the real reason"
    the Saudis had turned out for the GAWC class had been "to see
    what the UAE was up to" with the F-16 Block 60 and other
    procurement successes.  Although Egypt and Jordan wished to
    join in the next GAWC class, MbZ added, they also wanted the
    UAE Air Force to pay fuel costs.  MbZ said he had asked both
    countries "to go talk to ADNOC," the state-owned Abu Dhabi
    National Oil Company.

    France
    ------

    ¶8.  (U) MbZ noted that he would travel to Paris June 18-20 to
    meet with President Chirac, recalling that he had canceled
    his trip to France at the last minute in mid-January.

    Camel Jockeys
    -------------

    ¶9.  (SBU) On the margins of the MbZ conversation, Ambassador
    thanked Interior Minister Sheikh Saif for his assistance the
    week before in allowing G/TIP visitor Feleke Assefa access to
    camel jockey rehabilitation and social support centers.
    Ambassador noted that a Tier 3 ranking remained a possibility
    despite the UAEG,s vigorous efforts since mid-March with
    UNICEF, IOM, and others.  A trafficking in persons
    reassessment would take place in August, she noted, and it
    was important for the UAE to continue the good work it was
    doing in solving the problem.  MbZ aide Yousef al Otaiba
    promised to forward a copy of the UAE-UNICEF TIP implementing
    agreement and budget. (Note: he has done so; we have
    forwarded the document electronically to G/TIP and NEA/ARPI.
    End note.)

    Labor and the FTA
    -----------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) Labor Minister al Ka'abi noted he had received
    reports that the U.S. and UAE sides had moved closer on the
    text of the labor chapter of the FTA during the last day of
    negotiations.  He reiterated the UAEG,s concern that it
    receive some recognition of its unique demographic situation,
    as only 15 percent of the population held Emirati
    citizenship.
    SISON

`