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### Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON268, LABOUR'S NEW TALENT DEFICIT.

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06WELLINGTON268 | 2006-04-10 19:07 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXRO8458
    RR RUEHNZ
    DE RUEHWL #0268/01 1001911
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 101911Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2622
    RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0708

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000268

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS
    SENSITIVE
    STATE FOR EAP/ANP - DAN RICCI

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV NZ
    SUBJECT: LABOUR'S NEW TALENT DEFICIT.

    REF: 06 WELLINGTON 226

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  After two full terms in power, PM Clark has
    failed to effectively rejuvenate her Labour Party's ranks. Labour's
    lack of recognizable next generation leadership could be a real
    handicap over the short to-medium term, especially as the opposition
    National Party has a number of capable new MPs.  End Summary.

    Labour's Icarus syndrome.
    ------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Labour's rising stars appear to be plagued with an
    affliction: those who fly too high plummet rapidly back to earth.
    Since Labour come to power in 1999, a pattern has emerged in which
    soon after Labour MPs have been anointed as potential future leaders
    they make career damaging missteps. The tag "the next big thing"
    increasingly seems to be the kiss of death for a budding Labour MP.

    Parker the latest in a line of fallen Clark protgs
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶3. (SBU) Former Cabinet Minister David Parker (reftel) is only the
    latest of Clark's rising Labour stars to fall off his perch.  The
    first was Lianne Dalziel. Touted as a potential Labour leader when
    she came to Parliament in 1990 and named by Time magazine as a
    future world leader in 1995, Dalziel acquired increasingly important
    Cabinet assignments in quick succession. Her run was interrupted
    when she resigned from Cabinet in 2004 after being caught  in a lie
    over leaking a document to the media.

    ¶4. (SBU) The second to go was John Tamihere, the charismatic former
    MP identified early on by some analysts as a possible first Maori
    Prime Minister. He too fell to earth after being implicated in
    financial malfeasance in his iwi (tribe).  He then gave an interview
    that he claims did not know he was giving, in which he poured scorn
    upon members of his own caucus, including Clark herself. After being
    marginalized by his party, Tamihere refused to go on the Labour list
    and is now out of Parliament altogether after losing his
    constituency seat at the last election.

    ¶5. (SBU) Unlike Tamihere, whose future in Labour Party politics
    looks distinctly bleak, Clark has indicated to the press that Parker
    might return to Cabinet if he is cleared of accusations that he
    falsified documents related to his business.  Indeed, Clark has a
    predisposition to rehabilitate disgraced MPs whom she thinks still
    could add value in her government. The obvious precedent is Dalziel,
    who after being out in the political wilderness for twenty months
    was brought by Clark back into the Cabinet after the 2005 election
    and now hold three portfolios.  Dalziel is no longer touted as a
    rising star, however, and Parker may find the same fate.  Clark has
    to balance her party's need for a competent next generation with the
    desire to avoid controversies that the now-strengthened opposition
    could exploit.

    Labour caucus short on commercial experience.
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Parker and Tamihere were regarded as new generation Labour
    politicians, who would, over time, front the major commercial
    portfolios in the Clark administration. Their departure from the
    immediate scene leaves only David Cunliffe as a new generation
    Labour MP with a credible business background.

    ¶7. (SBU) As a former Fulbright Scholar, Harvard Business graduate,
    management consultant, and diplomat who once served in Washington,
    Cunliffe has impeccable business credentials. As such, he is an
    anomaly in a caucus full of former trade unionists and teachers. In
    Clark's effort to maintain the confidence of the business community
    with new and experienced political talent, Cunliffe stands out. Yet,
    it is uncertain to whether he is able to build strong support within
    his own caucus in order to move into a vaunted leadership role in
    the future. Some analysts note that Cunliffe's interpersonal skills
    leave a lot to be desired and he reportedly has few friends within
    the Labour caucus.

    Labour's newest "next big thing".
    -------------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) The latest Labour MP who has been widely tipped for future
    leadership is new high-flying list MP Shane Jones. Like Tamihere
    before him, Jones is viewed by some analysts as a future Maori Prime
    Minister. Yet, already there are signs that Jones could be destined
    for trouble.

    ¶9. (SBU) In late 2005, mere months after entering Parliament, Jones
    faced a political storm when the opposition National Party
    questioned his intention to stay on as the paid chairman of a Maori
    Fisheries Commission. Clark herself was not happy about Jones'
    alleged conflict of interest and it was ultimately agreed that he
    would remain as Chairman for an undefined transition period. Clark's

    WELLINGTON 00000268  002 OF 002

    reason for quickly moving to try clear up this matter goes beyond
    protecting Labour's newest political star from a premature downfall.
    Jones is also chairman of Parliament's powerful Finance and
    Expenditure Committee. An inference that the committee's Labour
    chairman is involved in a conflict of interest would further add to
    the Government's growing reputation for political sleaze.
    Labour alleges a dirty plot
    ---------------------------
    ¶10. (SBU) The political troubles of both Parker and Tamihere were
    brought to light by Ian Wishart, a journalist who once worked for
    former Labour Prime Minister Mike Moore.  "Investigate," the
    magazine Wishart founded in 2000, is an influential publication sold
    in both New Zealand and Australia. Seen by some as the New Zealand
    version of Woodward and Bernstein, others accuse born-again
    Christian Wishart of having an anti-Labour, conservative agenda.
    Wishart counters that his publication has also "annoyed the Right in
    the past". Unconvinced, or at least threatened, Clark in a recent
    radio interview called Wishart a "little creep".
    The next in line - the short game.
    ---------------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) Despite Clark's efforts to change the subject, the makeup
    of a post-Clark Labour Party is becoming an increasing common parlor
    game among political analysts and the media. It is widely assumed
    that the contest for the next Labour leadership battle will be
    between the moderate wing and the traditional left-leaning faction
    of the Labour Party. Defense Minister Phil Goff reportedly leads the
    moderate faction. The left-leaning wing is more splintered, however,
    with Ministers Steve Maharey and Trevor Mallard being the lead
    contenders.  Despite the rumors, Clark has not identified an heir
    apparent. Nor have any of the leading contenders openly articulated
    their own ambitions. There is very much a sense that Labour has yet
    to decide upon a leadership plan.

    The National Party
    -----------------

    ¶12. (SBU) Contrast the uncertainty of the succession question within
    Labour to that of the National Party. Most commentators see as
    inevitable the rise of John Key, National's Finance spokesman, to
    replace Don Brash in the top slot. Although Key publicly backs away
    from talk of a leadership challenge to Brash, the impetus is firmly
    behind him as the public is becoming increasingly cognizant of his
    leadership credentials.  Significantly, Key now ranks third in
    preferred Prime Minister polling, behind Clark and Brash.
    (Ironically, John Tamihere ranks fourth, ahead of Finance Minister
    Michael Cullen and Defense Minister Goff.)  National also has a
    number of other competent younger MPs, many of whom entered
    Parliament during September's extremely close general election.

    Lack of renewal and new talent will hurt Labour going forward
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶13. (SBU) Comment: It seems unlikely that further cabinet
    re-shuffles will rid Labour of its ever-growing image of staleness.
    The failure to bring enough fresh and expert eyes to look at
    existing problems also means Labour may go into the next election
    short of new and innovative ideas. Measured up against a rejuvenated
    National opposition, Labour's lack of new blood may well be all the
    more noticeable.

`