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### Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON78, NATIONAL GOES TO BAT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05WELLINGTON78 | 2005-01-27 03:03 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000078

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR EAP/ANP

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM NZ
    SUBJECT: NATIONAL GOES TO BAT

    Classified By: ACTING DCM KATHERINE B. HADDA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

    ¶1. (U) Summary.  After a week of press leaks and innuendo,
    the 2005 election season swung into full gear with Opposition
    National Party leader Don Brash's much-anticipated speech at
    Orewa Rotary Club on January 25, unveiling National's
    long-promised position on welfare reform.  Expectations for
    this speech were astronomical after a speech at the same
    venue in January 2004 surprised both the Government and
    National by resulting in a 15 percent poll jump for National.
     While short on specific policy prescriptions, the biggest
    announcement in the speech was a pledge to reduce the total
    number of beneficiaries by 100,000 within the next ten years.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Although the speech made it onto the front pages,
    public reaction seems well below that generated by last
    year's speech.  But the message gives an idea of National's
    intentions going into the early stages of the election
    campaign.  By raising the welfare issue, the party hopes to
    attract struggling middle-income working families with
    children, and to solidify support by traditional National
    voters.  Learning from last year, the Government responded
    quickly to the speech, noting that the number of
    beneficiaries has actually declined since Labour has been in
    office.  End summary.

    Orewa II: Return of the Brash
    -----------------------------

    ¶3. (U) After a week of press leaks and innuendo, Opposition
    National Party leader Don Brash gave a much-anticipated
    speech at Orewa Rotary Club on January 25, unveiling
    National's long-promised position on welfare reform.  Brash
    was quick to note that he is not condemning legitimate
    beneficiaries, but rather aiming at the widespread fraud he
    believes is in the system.  Welfare is "a temporary hand up
    not an open-ended handout," he said, emphasizing that the
    system was out of control.  Brash noted that since 1975, New
    Zealand's population had grown by 32 percent, but the number
    of Sickness Benefit recipients has grown by almost 500
    percent, and those on the Invalids' Benefit by almost 700
    percent.  Since 1999, when the current Labour Government took
    office, the population has grown by 6 percent, versus 40
    percent growth in the number receiving those two benefits.

    ¶4. (U) Expectations for this speech were astronomical: at the
    same venue and time last year, Brash's speech attacking
    racial preference in Government policies resulted in a 15
    percent poll jump for National, surprising both his own party
    and the Labour Government.  Proving they have learned their
    lesson, and leaving no doubt that election year sparring has
    begun, Minister for Social Development Steve Maharey
    immediately countered this year's speech, pointing to a
    reduction in overall beneficiary numbers since 1999, and
    highlighting New Zealand's current record low unemployment
    rate.  He also claimed that Labour was already enacting all
    of the "good recommendations" from the speech.  The remainder
    of Brash's recommendations were failed National policies from
    the 1990s, Maharey said. Prime Minister Helen Clark, in a
    limited statement, stood by her record, and pointed to a 20
    percent reduction of working age benefit recipients during
    Labour's 5-years in Government.

    Promises Made
    -------------

    ¶5. (U) While not varying substantially from policies
    announced by Party Welfare Spokeswoman Katherine Rich in
    2003, Brash did make a new pledge to reduce the total number
    of beneficiaries by 100,000 within the next ten years.  To
    achieve this, Brash focused primarily on more stringent
    application of single-parent subsidies- the Domestic Purposes
    Benefit (DPB).  He also advocated a limited
    "work-for-the-dole" program or retraining for those receiving
    unemployment, and tougher medical evaluation of those
    receiving Sickness and Invalid payments.  For employees seen
    as risky, i.e. those without experience, with poor English
    skills, or with a criminal record, potential employers would
    be offered a 90-day "trial period" to encourage greater
    workforce participation.

    ¶6. (U) Repeating National's mantra of "personal
    responsibility" versus an expanding "nanny state," Brash
    called for DPB recipients to be ready for part-time work when
    their youngest children turned five and full-time when they
    turned 14.  Brash savaged the Labour Government for allowing
    women to have greater incomes if they deny having a
    relationship with their childrens' father than they would if
    the same couple were married.  Brash also stated that under a
    National government, single parents on the DPB who won't name
    the father of their children would face financial penalties.
    Brash also advocated adoption as an option, especially for
    teenage mothers.
    The Political Angle
    -------------------

    ¶7. (U) Demonstrating election year sensitivities, Brash was
    quick to clarify that National's welfare policies will not
    apply to social security benefits for either people over 65
    or those physically or mentally unable to support themselves.
     He also stressed that National would be supportive of women
    trying to leave abusive relationships.   With National's
    voters statistically older than Labour's, and the overall
    speech aimed at working New Zealanders, these clarifications
    should reassure National's core constituency.  Critics of his
    proposals, which include the Green Party, United Future and
    social welfare groups, point out that there are few specifics
    in the plan, no mention of anticipated costs, and little to
    differentiate it from past National policies.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶8. (C) Because of the attention generated by last year's
    speech, extensive media coverage and a strong government
    response were assured for this one, regardless of topic or
    caliber.  Despite the initial media blitz, however, voters
    had a lukewarm reaction, with newspapers reporting they had
    received a quarter of the number of letters commenting on the
    speech compared to 2004.  This is not altogether surprising,
    given the unreasonably high expectations placed on Brash by
    the media and his own party.  The speech was significant,
    though, in that it has countered criticism that National has
    been afraid to unveil policies for fear that the Labour
    government will hijack the agenda by itself implementing
    National's recommended reforms, as happened after last year's
    Orewa speech.  Whether the Government will succeed with a
    similar sleight of hand this time remains to be seen, but
    officials' claims that Labour has already reduced the number
    of beneficiaries was no doubt intended as a step in this
    direction.
    Swindells

`