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### Viewing cable 08WELLINGTON356, A/S FORT'S OCTOBER 9-10 VISIT TO NEW ZEALAND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08WELLINGTON356 | 2008-10-24 01:01 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHWL #0356/01 2980129
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 240129Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5491
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0442
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 5291
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0069
    RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0209
    RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0192
    RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0336
    RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 0309
    RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0725
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T WELLINGTON 000356

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EAP/ANP AND INR/FO

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018
    TAGS: PINR PREL NZ
    SUBJECT: A/S FORT'S OCTOBER 9-10 VISIT TO NEW ZEALAND

    Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Margaret B. McKean; Reason 1.4 (b), (
    c), (d)

    ¶1.  (C)  Summary.  During an October 9-10 visit to New
    Zealand, INR A/S Randall Fort met with members of the
    External Assessments Bureau (EAB), the Chief Executive of the
    Prime Minister and Cabinet's Department, Ministry of Foreign
    Affairs and Trade Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth, and
    officials with New Zealand's Government Communications
    Security Bureau (GCSB).  GNZ officials praised USG efforts to
    improve intelligence sharing, particularly with respect to
    imagery.  GNZ interlocutors acknowledged that New Zealand
    gains enormous benefits from being part of the Five Eyes
    intelligence community.  A/S Fort's message focused on the
    increasing sophistication of commercial search engines and
    the growing number of open source analyses available to
    policymakers.  In the future, the intelligence community must
    find ways to differentiate their products and provide value
    added to policy makers, argued A/S Fort.  He also discussed
    the issues surrounding cyberspace and national security.  Key
    issues for GNZ officials centered on the recent
    Georgia/Russia conflict, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan/Afghanistan,
    North Korea and the Pacific region.  End Summary.

    Security of Public Sector Computers is Key Concern
    --------------------------------------------- -----

    ¶2.  (C)  INR Assistant Secretary Fort visited New Zealand on
    October 9-10, accompanied by other INR staff.  Meetings with
    GNZ officials included calls on Gregory Baughen, head of New
    Zealand's External Assessments Bureau (EAB), working sessions
    with EAB officials, a meeting with Bruce Miller, Deputy
    Director of New Zealand's GCSB, and a a call on Michael
    XXXXXXXXXXXX, Deputy Director of New Zealand Security
    Intelligence Service (NZSIS).  Discussions with EAB working
    level staff and analysts from other government offices
    focused on the recent Russia/Georgia conflict, North Korea
    and northeast Asia, China, Iran/Iraq, Afghanistan, and the
    Pacific region.

    ¶3.  (S/NF)  During his visit, Fort called on Chief Executive
    of the Department for Cabinet and Prime Minister's Office,
    Maarten Wevers, who manages a staff of 120, including
    Domestic and External Security groups, the PM's policy group,
    and Wevers also oversees New Zealand's intelligence
    committee.  Wevers likened his Department to the National
    Security Council in terms of breadth of coverage and
    responsibilities.  He noted that EAB's operations are highly
    compartmentalized and EAB reports are tightly held within
    Cabinet, with few Ministers seeing them.  He explained that
    New Zealand's contribution to the Five Eyes intelligence
    community consists of two monitoring stations; one in the
    northern end of the south island, and the other on the north
    island near Wellington.  Wevers offered that the GNZ
    recognizes that it is a "enormous beneficiary" of the Five
    Eyes community and lauded the good bilateral relations on
    intelligence sharing, including recent strides in imagery
    sharing.  He added that New Zealand was "well past the
    military issues" of the past.  A/S Fort hoped the additional
    access would prove useful to New Zealand; the amount of
    information and management of the information can be a
    challenge.  Wevers commented that intelligence and
    assessments may mean something different to New Zealand than
    to other Five Eyes partners.  Often there are significant
    differences with Australia, he added, as New Zealand is a
    more Pacific country than Australia and the latter is not
    always attuned to Pacific developments.

    ¶4.  (C)  A/S Fort spoke about the challenges for intelligence
    analysts posed by the rapid growth of commercially available
    analytic services outside government and the sophistication
    of search engines such as Google and Yahoo.  The information
    needed by policymakers is increasingly available outside
    government, and the size of outside companies or groups is
    not a factor.  Smaller can be very nimble; the quality of the
    analysis is key and the intelligence community must
    increasingly look to match outside services and provide
    additional value added to remain relevant, affirmed the A/S.

    ¶5. (C)  Fort turned to issues involving cyberspace and the
    Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI), which
    will begin with the Five Eyes and then move to NATO
    countries.  Security is part of the issue, but the A/S also
    stressed the relevance to finance and defense.  Even small
    countries can benefit with a relatively small contribution
    towards equipment and personnel.  Regarding deterrence, he
    mentioned that there are analogues to nuclear deterrence but
    the international community is only beginning to think about
    cyber threats in similar fashion.  Wevers noted that the GNZ
    is seized with the issue of cybersecurity, and GCSB is
    working with the PM's Department to protect the public sector
    computer system and analyze the range of risks.

    ¶6.  (C)  In discussing the Pacific and Chinese activities in
    the region, Wevers said that China has recognized that their
    competition with Taiwan is not helpful, but their foreign
    affairs officials are not always aware of what others in the
    Chinese government are doing in the region.  Venezuela and
    Cuba are now coming into the Pacific, and Wevers likened
    their interest to that of the Russians in the past.  A/S Fort
    mentioned that the backtracking of democracy in the broader
    Pacific region (Fiji, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia) was a
    Washington concern.  The region is more fragile today than 10
    years ago, he opined, and urged a coordinated approach by the
    stronger and healthier democracies.  Wevers offered that APEC
    remains an important regional mechanism and the East Asia
    Summit, which includes India, is another good venue for
    raising issues.  Wevers added that China is only now
    realizing the very significant law and order problem within
    China, as people are making money illicitly without any sense
    of the rule of law.  The metamphetamine problem in the region
    can be traced to China, continued Wevers, and the precursor
    chemicals are coming into New Zealand and other countries in
    large containers that are difficult to stop.

    Meeting with MFAT Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶7.  (S/NF)  DepSec Forsyth welcomed A/S Fort's visit, stating
    that the GNZ values its contacts with the Washington
    intelligence community.   The twice-weekly CIA-Commonwealth
    briefings are very useful, but the Five Eyes provides greater
    depth.  She added that intelligence reports go to the PM's
    office, who "absorbs" the paper.  A/S Fort explained that the
    State INR Bureau is relatively small, and therefore focuses
    on core issues.  Currently, Washington policymakers are
    focused on the longer term implications of the recent
    Russia/Georgia conflict and what is holds for Russia's future
    and adherence to international norms.  With North Korea, the
    Six Party Talks are the central issue, but also Kim Jong Il's
    health and possible successor.  Afghanistan's trend lines are
    worrisome, he added, particularly due to the link with the
    Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.
    Pakistan's transition to civilian leadership is being watched
    closely in Washington, noted the A/S.  He and Forsyth
    discussed Iranian nuclear pretensions and possible Israeli
    reaction.  A/S Fort offered that Israel is likely to strike
    if the government of Israel believes Iran has met their red
    lines; an Israeli strike against Iran would be more complex
    than those launched against Iraq and Syria, he said.  A/S
    Fort added that the US-India nuclear deal was an historic
    diplomatic achievement for the Secretary.  Responding to
    Forsyth's question, Fort downplayed Venezuela as a threat to
    USG interests and characterized Chavez as more of an
    annoyance with limited political influence within the region.

    ¶8.  (S)  Forsyth praised the US-New Zealand bilateral
    relationship, noting that the highlight of the year had been
    the Secretary's visit to New Zealand and onward travel to
    Samoa, which had provided a window into the challenges facing
    the Pacific, particularly to the micro-states of the region.
    New Zealand views the situation in Fiji as "acute," and
    appreciates USG support for the Pacific Island Forum (PIF)
    position on Fiji.  A/S Fort commented that GNZ sigint had
    been critical to USG understanding of the 2006 coup.  Forsyth
    offered that New Zealand sees an arc of instability in
    Melanesia, as there is a great deal of money but little to no
    capacity to use it wisely.  The Solomon Islands are under
    control at the moment but there are still significant
    problems in terms of governance and corruption.  The GNZ is
    weighing the necessary structural changes needed to make a
    long-lasting improvement in the SI society so that RAMSI
    security forces might depart.  Vanuatu is coping for the
    moment, she added, and New Zealand is putting significant
    assistance towards agricultural projects there.

    ¶9.  (S/NF)  Moving to North Korea, Forsyth asked if the
    stalled progress on the Six Party Talks was linked to a DPRK
    assessment that the U.S. election aftermath might offer a
    better deal.  A/S Fort replied in the negative, noting that
    foreign policy continuity is the norm.  Oscillation is part
    of the DPRK strategy, he added, and the current situation is
    complicated by Kim Jong Il's health issues and the succession
    process.  Kim Jong Il played off the former Soviet Union and
    China to his benefit and may be trying to use the U.S. in the
    same way as the Soviets.  China's role has been constructive,
    continued Fort, largely because Beijing does not want to see
    a nuclear Korean peninsula and the ramifications of a
    northeast Asian arms race.  The A/S mentioned that North
    Korea faces a food crisis despite World Food Program
    assistance.  Forsyth said that the New Zealand high
    commissioner in Seoul would be going soon to North Korea for
    a periodic visit.

    ¶10.  (S/NF)  The MFAT Deputy Secretary asked for A/S Fort's
    assessment of Afghanistan and Pakistan.  New Zealand has
    troops stationed in Bamiyan province and the GNZ is concerned
    over the malevolent influence from the tribal areas of
    Pakistan, particularly since the international community has
    been trying to transform Afghanistan into a state since 2001.
     Fort responded that Afghanistan will be an enduring
    challenge for generations requiring cultural changes.  The
    U.S. is determined to be more aggressive in addressing
    Taliban cross-border operations, and is weighing the
    political costs with Pakistan.  Forsyth and Fort discussed
    prospects for the Indian government to improve its relations
    with Islamabad to ease pressure on the Pakistan army to fight
    insurgents in the FATA.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶11.  (C)  GNZ interlocutors were pleased to have the
    opportunity to discuss a range of global issues of bilateral
    concern.  All meetings focused on GNZ support for the
    intelligence sharing partnership and, in particular, the
    singular role of Prime Minister Clark in ensuring good
    cooperation.  As of this writing, the New Zealand HC based in
    Seoul has already returned from her trip to the DPRK; we will
    try to get a readout from MFAT.  End Comment.

    ¶12.  (U)  A/S Fort has cleared this message.
    MCKEAN

`