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### Viewing cable 06DAMASCUS207, IMPACT OF KHADDAM: A SYRIAN OPPOSITION FIGURE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06DAMASCUS207 | 2006-01-19 14:02 | 2011-05-04 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Damascus

Appears in these articles:
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10402
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10403
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10404
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10405
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/10406
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11322
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11323
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11324
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11325
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11326
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11327
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11328
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11329
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11330
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11331
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11332
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11333
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11336
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11337
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11338
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11339
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11340
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11341
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11342
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11343
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11344
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11345
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11346
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11348
http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/11349

`

    VZCZCXYZ0004
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHDM #0207/01 0191411
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 191411Z JAN 06
    FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6622
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
    RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0581
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 000207

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU; STATE FOR NEA/P, NEA/PPD

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
    TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO
    SUBJECT: IMPACT OF KHADDAM:  A SYRIAN OPPOSITION FIGURE
    SPEAKS OUT

    Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  In a conversation held before the release
    of political prisoner Riyad Seif and others, prominent Syrian
     XXXXXXXXXXXX opposition figure XXXXXXXXXXXX told Polchief
    January 16 that former VP Abdul Halim Khaddam's press
    campaign had thrown the Syrian regime into crisis but would
    not by itself threaten its survival.  Khaddam's sharpest
    criticism had been aimed directly at President Bashar
    al-Asad, as a way to encourage regime pillars to calculate
    that it was in their interest to distance themselves from or
    possibly move against Asad, XXXXXXXXXXXX said.  Khaddam's attacks had
    strengthened the opposition in Syria and given it more
    prominence, but we assess that the release of five of the six
    Damascus spring detainees effectively short-circuits
    Khaddam's plans for encouraging the Syrian opposition to
    rally around him.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (C) KHADDAM INFLICTED DAMAGE, BUT ...:Syrian opposition
    figure XXXXXXXXXXXX told Polchief January 16
    -- before the release of former MP Riyad Seif and other
    detainees -- that former VP Abdul Halim Khaddam was in a
    position to deepen severely the long-term crisis in which the
    regime finds itself but not, by himself, to bring the regime
    down.  His primary limitation is that he has never had strong
    support in the Syrian military and security services, which
    are dominated by the Alawites, noted XXXXXXXXXXXX.

    ¶3.  (C) ENCOURAGING REGIME FIGURES TO ABANDON ASAD?  XXXXXXXXXXXX
    said that Khaddam's criticism of Asad as a weak, indecisive,
    dangerously inexperienced and impulsive leader highlighted a
    problem that regime power brokers like SMI head Asif Shawkat
    and brother Maher al-Asad were already aware of:  How does an
    essentially totalitarian regime function with such a vacuum
    at the center?  The issue is more stark now:  Do regime
    pillars (mostly Alawite) stand with Asad and risk possibly
    losing power completely, or move against him?   XXXXXXXXXXXX also
    noted that Asad now found himself ensnared in a dangerous,
    intractable crisis with UNIIIC over the assassination of
    Hariri, with the finger of suspicion directed by Khaddam
    pointing squarely at him.

    ¶4.  (C) OPENING DOORS FOR THE OPPOSITION:  With regard to the
    opposition in Syria, Khaddam's attacks had strengthened it
    significantly.  Khaddam had spoken about it in a very
    positive manner and adopted the opposition's program,
    primarily embodied in the Damascus Declaration.  This had
    enhanced the opposition's standing in Syria, making it likely
    that the regime would try to reach out to it in the coming
    weeks.  (Comment:  The release of Seif and the fresh rumors
    about a new political parties law indicate this effort may
    already be underway.)

    ¶5.  (C) In addition, Khaddam had opened a door for the
    opposition to the U.S., insisted XXXXXXXXXXXX.  His criticism
    provided some cover for opposition figures who wanted to
    criticize the regime but feared being branded as an agent of
    the U.S. or as anti-Syrian.  "We must take advantage of the
    opening Khaddam has provided," maintained XXXXXXXXXXXX.   On a
    separate note, XXXXXXXXXXXX, took note of Khaddam's
    opening to the Syrian Muslim Brothers (MB) and urged the U.S.
    to engage with the MB leadership, dismissing the notion that
    they posed a threat to future secular democratic development
    in Syria.  (Comment: Our contacts are divided on whether the
    MB poses a potential threat.  Post will provide a fuller
    assessment septel.)

    ¶6.  (C) Comment:  Post shares XXXXXXXXXXXX assessment that
    Khaddam's press interviews have created some space for the
    opposition, although how much its position has been
    strengthened remains to be seen.  The January 18 release of
    Riyad Seif and four other Damascus Spring detainees seems to
    represent a regime attempt to respond to Khaddam and close
    off his effort to rally the oppositon to his side.  Seif is
    now likely to attract all that opposition support (and to
    draw much broader support in Syrian society).  The SARG
    release of Seif is likely to render Khaddam a less imposing
    figure, with less potential for being viewed as an
    alternative to the regime.  Seif's prison term would have
    ended in September of this year in any case, forcing the SARG
    to deal with his case soon enough.  The fact that it moved
    now, however, as it navigates through a crisis Khaddam helped
    to precipitate, gives some indication of how much Khaddam
    rattled the regime's leadership.  Seif, previously viewed by
    the regime as a potential Mandela-type figure on the Syrian
    political scene, appeared post-Khaddam as a useful
    distraction and perhaps for the regime as less threatening

    than Khaddam.  In the long run, as he moves out of the shadow
    momentarily cast by Khaddam, Seif will probably prove to be
    the far more imposing opposition figure (but without access
    to the weapon of "regime secrets" wielded by the former VP).
    The SARG for its part will work strenuously in the coming
    months to split the opposition, manipulate any political
    opening resulting from a new parties law, and in short,
    circumscribe to the maximum Seif's political potential.
    SECHE

`