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### Viewing cable 06AMMAN7420, JORDAN'S ISLAMISTS BACK DOWN, FOR NOW

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06AMMAN7420 | 2006-09-27 14:02 | 2011-03-15 18:06 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Amman
Appears in these articles: not yet set

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHAM #7420/01 2701433
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 271433Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4419
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 007420

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM KISL KPAL LE JO
    SUBJECT: JORDAN'S ISLAMISTS BACK DOWN, FOR NOW

    REF: A. AMMAN 6724
    ¶B. AMMAN 6335
    ¶C. AMMAN 5907
    ¶D. AMMAN 5879 AND PREVIOUS
    ¶E. AMMAN 5222
    ¶F. AMMAN 1692 AND PREVIOUS
    ¶G. AMMAN 809

    Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 b and d

    ¶1. (C) Summary: After ten months of tension between the GOJ
    and Jordan's legal Islamist movement, advocates for
    confrontation appear to have lost the debate within the
    movement's leadership. Some in the leadership are confident
    of gains in 2007 elections; others worry that more Jordanians
    are growing tired of the movement's non-violent tactics. End
    summary.

    The Dispute
    -----------

    ¶2. (C) Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, and its political wing
    the Islamic Action Front, complain the GOJ has been
    pressuring them since late 2004. Their most prominent
    grievance was the conviction, imprisonment, and expulsion
    from parliament of Front MPs Muhammad Abu Fares and Ali Abu
    Al-Sukar on charges of incitement for statements they made
    after the death of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in June (ref C).
    Islamists also point to the security services' attempt to
    influence their internal elections (ref F); a press campaign
    to link the movement to alleged Hamas arms caches in Jordan;
    a roundup of activists in April; the government's takeover of
    the movement's large charity network because of alleged
    corruption (ref D); and a recent further tightening of
    government control over mosque sermons (septel.)

    ¶3. (C) For its part, senior GOJ officials have worried that
    the movement -- Jordan's only effective non-governmental
    political organization of any magnitude -- was drifting away
    from its traditional role as a loyal opposition, and that the
    younger, Palestinian-Jordanian base of the movement was
    displacing the East Banker, old guard leadership. Hamas'
    electoral victory in January, and an exultant Front MP's
    claim that Jordan's Islamists were also "ready to govern"
    (ref G), shocked and provoked the security establishment.
    COMMENT: After the Hamas election, the King directed GID to
    put the movement back in its place, and to reduce the
    influence of the Front's Secretary General Zaki Bani Irsheid,
    whom the security services viewed as the champion of Hamas
    admirers within the movement. While Bani Irsheid's base in

    the movement is among Palestinian-Jordanians, Bani Irsheid is
    of East Bank origin. END COMMENT.

    Hawks vs. Doves, and a Hizballah Factor
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶4. (C) Government pressure on the Islamists touched off a
    debate within the movement's leadership between so-called
    "hawks" advocating confrontation with the government, and
    "doves" counseling patience. The debate broke down largely
    along West Banker-East Banker lines. According to contacts
    close to the movement's leadership, some hawks worried that
    Hizballah has become so popular in Jordan this summer that
    the Brotherhood and Front looked ineffective in comparison.
    Hawks also voiced concerns that disillusioned supporters
    would drop out of the movement unless it confronted the
    government with strikes or withdrawal from parliament.

    ¶5. (C) Despite these concerns, and with some help from the
    security services, the dovish old guard prevailed, and
    publicly re-asserted its leadership over that of Bani
    Irsheid. On July 11, Brotherhood leaders (without Bani
    Irsheid) met with the Prime Minister and issued a
    conciliatory statement (ref E), prompting hawks to push back
    with calls for the Front's MPs to walk out of parliament. On
    September 6, Muslim Brotherhood leader Salem Al-Falahat
    announced that the Front's fifteen remaining MPs would not
    walk out of parliament over the 13-month sentences imposed on
    Abu Fares and Abu al-Sukkar.

    ¶6. (C) Although a walkout and strikes are now off the table,
    rhetorical attacks on the government continue. Both hawks
    and doves in the Brotherhood press populist themes in public,
    criticizing the government for allegedly muzzling free
    speech, for corruption, and for "dishonorable subservience"
    to the U.S. and Israel (ref D). Falahat's interviews with
    Arab satellite channels are full of fiery denunciations of
    "the Zionist and American enemy," though his statements in
    domestic Jordanian media are more restrained. Bani Irsheid
    bashed the government September 27, according to local media,
    for its continued hold on the movement's charity network.
    (Note: The GOJ replaced the board of directors of the
    Brotherhood's charity network with non-MB members shortly
    after the arrest of the Front MPs, claiming it needed to root
    out corruption in the network (ref D). The
    government-appointed chairman of the interim board told
    polcouns September 19 that he did not expect the GOJ's
    ongoing investigation to uncover any serious wrongdoing, and
    opined that the episode was part of a government campaign to
    pressure the movement, which it was.)

    Electoral Prospects
    -------------------

    ¶7. (C) Post contacts close to the movement say old guard
    East Bankers argued successfully that time was on the
    movement's side. Jordanian public opinion, claimed the
    "doves", was more sympathetic than ever to criticism of
    Jordan's elite for corruption and proximity to the U.S. The
    "doves" expect this sentiment to bring the Front big gains at
    the municipal and parliamentary elections expected in 2007.

    ¶8. (C) However, these contacts also said Falahat himself -
    and other old-guard leaders - complain privately that
    Jordan's political system is so irretrievably corrupt that
    disillusioned voters will increasingly disengage from
    conventional politics. (Comment: Complaints from Islamists
    and other oppositionists about corruption and manipulation of
    the electoral process are nothing new, but, assuming our
    contacts' accounts are accurate, given the current sour
    popular mood (ref B) it's surprising that Falahat is not more
    upbeat about next year's elections. End comment.)

    Conclusion
    ----------

    ¶9. (C) The Muslim Brotherhood's apparent decision to eschew
    for now further confrontation with the government is a
    welcome victory for the GOJ and its security services. Many
    in Jordan hope the government will reciprocate with a royal
    pardon for Abu Fares and Abu Al-Sukkar, though there have
    been no recent hints of this from the Palace. Both the
    government and the movement's leaders should worry if
    significant numbers of Jordanians have indeed lost patience
    with conventional politics and the non-violent tactics of the
    Brotherhood and the Front.

    Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/

    Hale

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