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### Viewing cable 04QUITO2771, PRELIMINARY ECUADORIAN ELECTION RESULTS,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04QUITO2771 | 2004-10-18 19:07 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002771

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR PREL EC
    SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ECUADORIAN ELECTION RESULTS,
    IMPLICATIONS

    This cable was cleared by CG Guayaquil.

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ecuadorian voters went to the polls to
    elect provincial and municipal officials on October 17 in
    elections the OAS characterized publicly as "free and
    transparent."  Some irregularities were reported but in most
    polling places voting proceeded relatively smoothly.
    Preliminary results confirm that incumbents from the larger
    parties consolidated and strengthened their representation,
    at the expense of smaller party candidates.  Press
    immediately christened the re-elected mayors of Quito and
    Guayaquil as favorites for the 2006 presidential race.  It
    also appears that President Gutierrez' Patriotic Society
    Party surpassed the 5% hurdle to stave off extinction.
    Gutierrez continued to stir controversy on election day by
    threatening to overturn through regulation the method
    selected by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to allocate
    council seats to permit some degree of proportional
    representation.  Post-electoral controversy will now move to
    the courts and Congress.  End Summary.

    Process Smooth Overall, Rough in Places
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U) Ecuadorian voters elected 219 mayors, 22 provincial
    prefects, 91 provincial councilors, 893 municipal councilors,
    and 3,970 rural council representatives.  OAS Election
    Observation Chief of Mission Edgardo Reis issued a press
    statement on October 18 thanking the GoE for its
    collaboration with the OAS mission and stating that "the
    electoral process proceeded in a generally calm and ordered
    manner, with the exception of some incidents reported in the
    provinces of Guayas, Bolivar, and Los Rios."  Ninety percent
    of voters interviewed by OAS observers expressed satisfaction
    with the decision of the TSE to separate voting lines by
    gender.  Eighty-five percent of the sample of voters who used
    special electronic voting machines rated their use as easy,
    and 82% supported use of the machines more widely.  The
    results of the OAS quick count in the race for mayor of Quito
    coincided with official results.  The OAS statement also
    praised the work of electoral watchdog NGO Citizen
    Participation and the unprecedented indigenous observation
    effort mounted by the Q'ellkaj Foundation (both with USAID
    support).  It also expressed concern about gaps in the
    election law about campaign financing and allocation of
    council seats.

    ¶3.  (U) Although actual voting proceeded without incidents of
    violence, media reported and police sources have confirmed
    the shooting death of Pasquale Bustamante, a PSP candidate
    for town councilor in Los Rios province, in the evening after
    the polls closed.  In addition, the elections were suspended
    and will be re-run in two small municipalities (El Empalme in
    Guayas province and Pajan in Manabi province), and incidents
    were reported in the Tarqui area in Guayaquil municipality,
    in the municipality of Simon Bolivar in Guayas, and in
    Bolivar province.  Citizen Participation reported a variety
    of problems noted by its 3,100 young volunteer observers
    stationed in 42% of the voting stations nationwide, including
    campaign activities within voting areas (28%), and police
    impeding access by political party or observers to voting
    stations (17%).  Citizen Participation director Cesar
    Montufar urged Congress to address gaps in the electoral laws
    to better regulate campaign spending and the allocation of
    council seats.

    Embassy Volunteers Support OAS
    ------------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) Thirty-eight U.S. mission volunteers participated as
    election observers under the OAS Election Observation
    Mission.  In addition to Quito and Guayaquil, Embassy and CG
    Guayaquil volunteers traveled to Babahoyo, Los Rios province;
    Manta, Manabi province; Esmeraldas; Cuenca, Azuay province;
    Ibarra, Imbabura province; and Tena, Napo province.  Embassy
    participation contributed to a successful OAS quick count in
    Quito, and provided over half of the OAS' qualitative
    observation.

    Large Parties Advance, PSP Fate Uncertain
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (U) As expected, Paco Moncayo, the incumbent mayor of
    Quito (ID), was re-elected, as was Jaime Nebot (PSC) as mayor
    of Guayaquil.  Both were gracious and conciliatory in their
    victory speeches.  In Cuenca, the ID defeated the incumbent
    Pachakutik-endorsed mayor and won the Azuay prefect race as
    well.  In Machala, Los Rios, the PSC candidate defeated the
    PRE incumbent, although the PRE retained the prefecture.  In
    Manabi, the PSC mayor of Manta was re-elected and the PSC won
    the prefect race, also at the expense of the PRE.  The
    indigenous party, Pachakutik, appears to have preserved its
    strength in its Sierra heartland, but lost the prefecture of
    Bolivar.

    ¶6.  (U) Overall, the ID won six prefectures, followed by the
    PSC and Pachakutik with five each.  The PRE won in three
    prefectures, as did the Popular Democracy Party (DP), some in
    coalitions.  The Coalition of Popular Forces (CFP) and
    Popular Democratic Movement (MPD) both won in two.  The
    National Action Institutional Renewal Party (PRIAN) won just
    one prefecture (Imbabura) and the PSP was part of a coalition
    which won in the Galapagos.  (These numbers total more than
    Ecuador's 22 provinces because of alliances made in several
    races.)
    ¶7.  (U) It appears that President Gutierrez' PSP cleared the
    5% hurdle required to retain its party registry.  The PSP won
    the mayorships of Tena, in Gutierrez' home province of Napo;
    and of Pastaza, Morona Santiago province; in addition to the
    Galapagos prefecture.  (The 5% rule applies only to
    provincial, municipal, and rural council seats, however, and
    results in these races is still limited.)  Despite these
    advances by the PSP, opposition opinion makers are claiming
    the PSP's relatively poor showing constitutes popular
    rejection of the Gutierrez government's performance and
    program.

    Gutierrez: Snatching Defeat from Jaws of Victory
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶8.  (U) President Gutierrez marked the opening of polls in a
    brief address at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) in
    which he called on winners and losers to come together in
    support of unity and national interests.  Later, in an
    impromptu press conference at his polling station and in
    post-election interviews, Gutierrez was less statemanlike
    There he continued his criticism of the method adopted by the
    TSE to allocate council seats (which likely cost his small

    SIPDIS
    party by reducing proportional representation), and
    criticized Congress for abdicating its responsibility to
    legislate a better method.  Gutierrez said he was holding off
    issuing his own regulations replacing the TSE's method until
    greater consensus emerged on the subject in Congress.

    ¶9.  (U) Gutierrez also used the opportunity to take a swipe
    at "a certain desperate ex-President" for attacking
    Gutierrez' criticism of the judiciary (for supposed
    politicization in favor of the PSC) and his meeting with
    disgraced ex-president Abdala Bucaram in Panama.  PSC leader
    and ex-president Leon Febres-Cordero responded in kind,
    calling Gutierrez "corrupt, incapable, and an ignoramus."
    Guayaquil mayor Nebot, goaded by press to react to Gutierrez'
    threat to issue new post-electoral regulations, warned the
    President against any such move, saying the PSC and possibly
    other parties would "take to the streets" to defend what it
    won in the ballot box.

    Implications
    ------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) It appears that President Gutierrez' efforts on
    behalf of PSP candidates staved off de-certification of his
    party.  Regardless, it is clear today that the PSP's gains
    were modest, at best.  Opposition press are claiming the
    election results constituted a referendum on Gutierrez'
    performance as President.  We find that claim overdrawn, but
    will monitor closely the effects of the ensuing spin battle.

    ¶11.  (SBU) The big ID and PSC wins in their respective
    heartlands immediately fueled speculation that Paco Moncayo
    and Jaime Nebot will likely be competitors in the 2006
    presidential election (in response, both claimed only to be
    interested in serving their new four-year terms as mayor).
    Pachakutik's political stasis in its indigenous heartland
    might make it less anxious to challenge democratic stability
    than had it suffered a major reverse.  Alvaro Noboa, the
    PRIAN presidential runner-up in 2002 and presumptive
    presidential candidate in 2006, did his best to paint the
    PRIAN's middling results (many second and third places, few
    winners) as a victory placing the PRIAN among the four
    largest parties after only two years in existence.  He
    contrasted his party's national results with the strong
    regional identification of the PSC and ID.

    ¶12.  (SBU) We believe the President's election-day threat to
    regulate the allocation of council seats might well have been
    election-day posturing.  The controversy over the allocation
    of seats will continue regardless, since small party losers
    are expected to mount legal challenges to rules adopted by
    the TSE which cut down on proportional representation.  Those
    challenges are unlikely to convince the courts, which are
    considered more receptive to the views of the large parties.
    Post-electoral controversy will also play out in the
    Congress, which could distract it from returning to its
    stalled legislative agenda.
    KENNEY

`