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### Viewing cable 10GUAYAQUIL13, GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS AGAINST CORREA REGIME

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10GUAYAQUIL13 | 2010-02-12 20:08 | 2011-04-19 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Guayaquil
Appears in these articles: http://www.eluniverso.com/2011/04/18/1/1355/cable-248733.html

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    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHGL #0013/01 0432001
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 122001Z FEB 10
    FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0153
    INFO RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000013

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/12
    TAGS: PGOV EC
    SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS AGAINST CORREA REGIME

    DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 (B), (D)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 11, several hundred thousand lin...

    id: 248733
    date: 2/12/2010 20:01
    refid: 10GUAYAQUIL13
    origin: Consulate Guayaquil
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination:
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHGL #0013/01 0432001
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 122001Z FEB 10
    FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0153
    INFO RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000013

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/12
    TAGS: PGOV EC
    SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS AGAINST CORREA REGIME

    DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 (B), (D)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 11, several hundred thousand lined
    Guayaquil's main avenue answering Mayor Jaime Nebot's call to
    protest the central government's treatment of the city. During a
    fifty-minute speech, Nebot attacked President Correa's policies
    that he claimed marginalized Guayaquil, and called on citizens to
    help him end the government's policies, not the government. Nebot
    also called on other cities to follow suit. The central government
    staged a series of initiatives, including free health clinics in
    poor neighborhoods, to stem support for the march, but media
    estimates place attendance at 200,000-350,000. The march ostensibly
    was called to protest the fact that the government's funding of
    Guayaquil was $17 million less than authorized, but quickly became
    a referendum on the government's actions against Guayaquil. Some
    are already hailing the march as a possible turning point for
    opposition in the country, but the big question remains, what next?
    End Summary.

    THE BUILD-UP

    ¶2. (U) Over the past month, Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot has been
    involved in a highly publicized feud with finance minister Elsa
    Viteri over the fact that Guayaquil is budgeted to receive $17
    million less in its budget this year.  Nebot alleges that on a per
    capita basis Guayaquil is receiving considerably less than any
    other provincial capital and Quito, despite having the country's
    largest population and highest share of tax revenue to the
    government.  Viteri counters that the government used a fair and
    equitable formula to calculate the budget, but has yet to publicize
    exactly what the formula is.  Nationally, support for the new
    budget is divided along party lines.  Many small towns and centers
    of PAIS support are seeing increases in their budget and therefore
    support it.  As a response, Mayor Nebot called for a march to
    protest the way the central government treats Guayaquil.

    CHANGING THE THEME

    ¶3. (SBU) Although the march was initially called to express
    displeasure with the budget, the message coming out of Nebot's
    office in the past week was that the march was a rejection of the
    entire Correa government and its concept of 21st Century Socialism.
    This idea seems to have caught traction where the protest against
    the budget did not.  In informal discussions, consulate members did
    not note much excitement over the upcoming protests.  However, as
    the theme was expanded to include what Nebot framed as attacks
    against Guayaquil, such as the closing of a popular, municipally
    run health clinic program and a rejection of socialism, excitement
    over the march grew.

    THE MARCH

    ¶4. (U) Media estimates of the size of the crowd vary from "tens of
    thousands" to over 350,000 people.  One newspaper, Hoy, estimated
    the crowd at 200,000 based on photos from the event, but these
    photos did not take into account the significant crowds that
    overflowed on to side streets.  Those who attended the event claim
    it was larger than the large protest two years ago against the new
    constitution, which was estimated at more than 300,000 people.
    ConGen Guayaquil can confirm that 10 city blocks were full of
    people standing shoulder to shoulder.  At 1600 Nebot took to the
    stage alone.  As is his custom, he gave a rousing, profanity laden
    and seemingly unscripted speech.  He struck a careful balance
    between calling for the citizens to fight and explaining that he is
    not a "golpista" (seditionist).  "No, we are not vulgar
    incendiaries or revolutionaries, but neither are we cowards."  He
    added that Guayaquil will fight "till the end of the dictator, not
    the president."  On numerous occasions he compared Correa to Hugo
    Chavez, which led to strong applause.  "We don't want to be
    Caracas.  If he (Correa) likes it, he should go to Caracas or stay
    in Cuba," referring to the fact that Correa left the day before the
    protest to have knee surgery in Cuba.

    EXTENSIVE PREPARATION

    ¶5.  (U) The city exerted an enormous effort to organize the march.
    Buses were provided free of charge from all parts of the city and
    the city's mass transit system, the MetroVia, was free for all
    protesters going to and from the march.  Police were stationed
    throughout the city to direct busses downtown.  Newspaper reports
    state that more than 3,000 community organizations were involved in
    sending people to the protest.  Many employers gave their employees
    the afternoon off so they could go downtown as well.  Lastly, the
    city used a media blitz of billboards, newspaper, TV and radio
    advertisements to drum up support for the march.  The government
    countered with its own national media blitz, alleging that Nebot's
    budgetary assertions were merely a political ploy, and his main

    intention was asserting special rights for Guayaquil over the rest
    of the country.

    GOVERNMENT REACTION

    ¶6.  (C)  Unlike in previous protests, the Correa regime did not
    mount a counter-protest.  They tried to frame the march as a
    political maneuver on the part of Nebot rather than genuine outrage
    on the part of the population.  In an attempt to downplay the size
    of the march, Correa accused Nebot of giving people ten dollars or
    a sandwich to attend the protest.  [Note: Those attending the march
    cited the perceived disrespect of Guayaquil in this comment as one
    of the prime motivating factors for participating in the march.
    End Note.]  At the same time of the march, Guayas governor Roberto
    Cuero of Correa's Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) Alliance
    was in poor parts of the city distributing low-energy light bulbs
    and overseeing the delivery of medical services and garbage clean
    up in what he claims are sectors not properly served by the Nebot
    administration.  Although Cuero claims these programs were planned
    well before the protest and were not meant to be a response, they
    are widely perceived in the city to be the central government's
    attempt to keep people from attending the protest.  [Note:
    Governors in Ecuador are appointed by the central government.  End
    note.]

    GOING NATIONAL

    ¶7. (C)  In a meeting with the Consul General the day before the
    protest, Carlos Vera, the popular TV personality and outspoken
    critic of the Correa administration, told the CG that he urged the
    mayor to address his speech to a national audience rather than just
    Guayaquil and to appear on stage with opposition figures from
    around the country.  According to Vera, Nebot declined to do so,
    saying that he is only fighting for Guayaquil and has no further
    interest in national politics.  They agreed that Vera would lead
    opposition protests in other cities, beginning with his already
    scheduled march in Quito on February 18th.  Although Nebot did
    appear onstage alone and addressed his speech to Guayaquil, he
    offered Vera one concession: in his speech he called on cities
    throughout the country to rise up and protest.

    ¶8. (C) COMMENT:  If the march's sole aim was to regain the "lost"
    $17 million, it will likely fail as the central government is
    unlikely to give in (the president of the National Assembly even
    stated he would censure the Finance Minister if she were to give
    Guayaquil more money than the law allowed).  However, some in the
    opposition are hailing the march as a turning point and are hoping
    that marches planned in other cities will generate similar support.
    The next protest march, being organized by Carlos Vera, is slated
    for Quito February 18.  It is unlikely that marches in other cities
    will get 10-15% of the population onto the streets, but if marches
    in other regions do draw significant turnout, it could mark the
    first time that popular protests started on the coast cross
    geographic boundaries into the highlands (which have consistently
    been more supportive of Correa).  Given the president's falling
    popularity, opposition groups are hoping this could occur, but they
    lack a unified vision and a leader capable of rallying all the
    disparate elements of the opposition.  END COMMENT.
    Fernandez

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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