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### Viewing cable 04WELLINGTON949, NEW ZEALAND LABOUR PARTY CAUTIOUSLY CONFIDENT ON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04WELLINGTON949 | 2004-11-15 04:04 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000949

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR EAP/ANP
    NSC FOR GREEN, JONES

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2014
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MNUC NZ
    SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND LABOUR PARTY CAUTIOUSLY CONFIDENT ON
    2005 ELECTION CHANCES

    REF: WELLINGTON 889

    Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR KATHERINE B. HADDA,
    FOR REASONS 1.4(B,D)

    Summary
     -------

    ¶1.  (C) Summary: New Zealand's governing Labour Party held
    its annual conference, November 12 ) 14 in Auckland.
    Foreign affairs and trade featured prominently, and Clark
    noted that priorities over a Third term would include the
    following: new trade and economic links, especially FTAs or
    arrangements with ASEAN and India; a focus on sustainable
    development, within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol; and
    continued "peace and security work," with an emphasis on the
    Pacific.  Labour left no doubts on its commitment to NZ's
    anti-nuclear legislation, while Senior Labour leaders
    reconfirmed the party's multi-lateralist and consensus-based
    foreign policy approach.  The conference's headline
    initiative, which was leaked to the press a week earlier, was
    the creation of an all-party select committee to do a
    stocktake of New Zealand's constitutional arrangements.
    Overall, Helen Clark's Labour Party believes it is firmly in
    control of New Zealand and, barring economic downturn or
    scandal, is well-positioned for the 2005 election.  End
    summary.

    ¶2. (U) New Zealand's governing Labour Party held its annual
    conference, November 12 ) 14 in Auckland.  Clark's keynote
    address encouraged an air of celebration, claiming credit for
    New Zealand's economic growth, lower unemployment, rising
    education standards, better access to health care, and
    falling crime rates.  Not surprisingly, these mirror exactly
    the five issue areas the Opposition National Party has chosen
    to attack.  But in comparison with an overwhelmingly
    confident 2003 Conference, Labour tempered its highlight of
    achievements over the past year and increasingly positive
    poll ratings with a warning by Prime Minister Helen Clark
    that there is "no room for complacency."  Clark pointedly
    referenced the disarray in the Labour Party Caucus of the
    1980s, noting that New Zealanders are "looking for stability,
    predictability, and a commitment to the basics."

    Labour Strongly Reaffirms Anti-Nuclear Stance
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶3.  (C) In contrast to the Conference of 2003, which focused
    primarily on domestic governance issues, foreign affairs and
    trade were central issues at this year's gathering.  Clark
    noted that priorities over a Third term would include the
    following: new trade and economic links, especially FTAs or
    arrangements with ASEAN and India; a focus on sustainable
    development, within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol; and
    continued "peace and security work," with an emphasis on the
    Pacific.  Clark also left no room for doubt of her
    anti-nuclear credentials, stating "let's be clear; under a
    Labour-led government, there will be no revisiting of our
    nuclear free status.  It won't be gone by lunchtime or any
    other time."  All Conference attendees received anti-nuclear
    bumper stickers in their packs, and in discussions with
    delegates, Poloff was repeatedly told that the issue was
    closely related to Kiwi national identity and the U.S. should
    cease pressure on NZ to affect a change.

    ¶4. (C) Senior Labour leaders including Foreign Minister Phil
    Goff and Trade Minister Jim Sutton reconfirmed the party's
    multi-lateralist and consensus-based foreign policy.  An
    experimental session that featured a policy paper on New
    Zealand's foreign policy direction included a mention of the
    importance NZ's anti-nuclear policies have played in the
    past.  (Note: A copy of the policy paper has been faxed to
    EAP/ANP.)

    1 New Initiative ) Lots of Hints For 3rd Term
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶5. (U) The conference's headline initiative, which was leaked
    to the press a week earlier, was the creation of an all-party
    select committee, chaired by United Future leader Peter
    Dunne, to do a stocktake of New Zealand's constitutional
    arrangements.  (NB: NZ's constitution is currently comprised
    of certain key pieces of legislation, and some include the
    Treaty of Waitangi of 1840, under which Maori agreed to
    British rule in exchange for British citizenship and other
    rights.)  Opposition parties decried the proposal.  The
    National Party called it a pre-election distraction from the
    issues of race relations, raised by National's leader Don
    Brash in January, to great public support.  NZ First called
    the idea a "road to nowhere."
    ¶6. (U) In keeping with its mantra of stability and caution,
    no other new initiatives were advanced by Labour over the
    weekend, and Clark's speech focused on multi-year programs
    announced over the past 12 months.  These include increasing
    levels of government support for working families (fully
    funded by 2007), an additional week of paid leave for workers
    (by 2007), and a broadening of the superannuation program for
    government employees.

    ¶7. (U) Hints for future programs reflected Labour's
    pre-election push to broaden their appeal to average,
    working-class voters.  They hinted at policies such as
    building the asset base and savings capacity of average
    Kiwis, providing support for families with children in
    tertiary education, and crafting a non-compulsory
    superannuation program for private sector workers.

    "Many A Slip Twixt the Cup And The Lip"
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Reinforcing Clark's cautions on complacency, her
    keynote suffered an unscripted intervention by protesters
    calling for the release of imprisoned asylum-seeker Ahmed
    Zaoui.  The protest highlights Labour's vulnerability on
    certain key issues, including human rights and Maori affairs.
     With a vote coming up this week on controversial
    legislation, which would vest ownership of the foreshore and
    seabed with the GoNZ, Party members repeated thanks to the
    Maori Caucus for its support was duly noted by Maori
    delegates and MPs alike.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶9.  (C) Comment: Helen Clark's Labour Party believes it is
    firmly in control of New Zealand.  Barring economic downturn
    or scandal, the Party is well-positioned for the 2005
    election.  But Labour knows it must remain squarely
    positioned over NZ's political center, or risk a more
    significant challenge from National.  Clark's keynote speech
    therefore emphasized Labour's delivery of stability and
    economic prosperity, as well as directly addressing issues
    the Opposition had staked out as areas of weakness.  With the
    opposition unable to gain traction from Labour's blunders,
    Labour has again proved its strength as a strongly unified
    party, a credit to Clark's leadership, especially as recent
    allegations surrounding Maori MP John Tamihere (Reftel)
    threatened to derail Labour's Conference.  NZ's anti-nuclear
    legislation featured more prominently than in previous years,
    largely a reflection of National's release of a discussion
    paper on the issue.  While the message from Labour was clear
    ) we will not change- the Party's need to mention this may
    indicated that discussion of the issue is gaining traction.
    End comment.

    ¶7. (U) The text of Helen Clark's speech and the Labour Party
    Draft Working Paper on Foreign Policy can be found at Embassy
    Wellington's Classified Website.
    Swindells

`