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### Viewing cable 07OTTAWA2016, HARPER GOVERNMENT ADVANCES ITS AGENDA... FOR NOW

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07OTTAWA2016 | 2007-11-01 20:08 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO5806
    OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #2016/01 3052004
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 012004Z NOV 07 ZDK
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6824
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 002016

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT:  HARPER GOVERNMENT ADVANCES ITS AGENDA... FOR NOW

    REF:  A.  OTTAWA 1961

    --        B.  OTTAWA 1928
    --        C.  OTTAWA 1924

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With the opposition Liberal party abstaining on
    another key confidence vote on October 31, the Harper government
    continues aggressively to push its policy agenda in Parliament.  Key
    legislation that Prime Minister Harper promised in the Speech from
    the Throne (ref c) - on terrorism, crime, and intellectual property
    rights, among others - should move forward quickly as the Liberals
    have similarly indicated that they would not block these measures.
    Prospects of an election before the December 14 Christmas recess are
    now virtually zero, although an unexpected snap vote is always in
    the realm of possibility.   The Liberals and other opposition
    parties will probably use the holidays to canvass around the country
    seeking the right issue on which to bring down the government and
    face the electorate, perhaps next year.  End summary

    LIBERALS AGAIN SIT ON THEIR HANDS

    ¶2. (SBU) On October 30, the government delivered a voter-friendly,
    tax-cutting fall Economic Statement that included a cut to the
    national sales tax that the Liberals vehemently oppose, and then
    scheduled a snap confidence vote on October 31 to approve the
    Statement.  As with the final vote on the Throne Speech on October
    24 (ref  b), the Bloc Qubcois and New Democratic Party (NDP) voted
    against the motion, while the Official Opposition Liberal Party
    abstained en masse and allowed the measure to pass.

    ¶3. (SBU) The Liberals had earlier also indicated they will not
    oppose the government's omnibus Tackling Violent Crime bill (ref a),
    and on October 26 acquiesced in a government motion to form a
    special legislative committee to speed the bill through committee

    hearings, likely without amendment, and report back to the lower
    house by November 22.   (In the previous session, the Liberals had
    vocally opposed provisions to tighten restrictions on dangerous
    offenders.)  Liberal leader Stphane Dion has further pledged not to
    oppose legislation to amend the immigration security certificate
    system to detain non-citizens on national security grounds (ref a).
    Liberal justice critic Ujjal Dosanjh separately indicated that the
    Liberals will approach "with no preconceived notions or bias" a bill
    to restore special powers in the Anti-Terrorism Act that lapsed in
    March due to lack of support from the Liberals and other opposition
    parties.

    HARPER TWISTS THE KNIFE

    ¶4. (SBU) Dion again defended the party's abstention tactic by
    claiming that "Canadians do not want an election," which would mark
    the third federal vote in three-and-a-half years.  However, there is
    already grumbling within the Liberal party about Dion's lack of
    strong leadership and the new and apparently unprecedented practice
    of "whipped abstentions."   PM Harper taunted Dion in the Commons as
    the "King of abstention," while NDP leader Jack Layton has begun to
    refer to Dion as Harper's unwitting "coalition partner."

    UNLIKELY TO LAST

    ¶5.  (SBU) All parties nonetheless appear to be watching for the
    right moment and best issue to trigger a new election, but obvious
    prospects of that happening in 2007 are now virtually zero, so
    strategists across the spectrum are looking at 2008 possibilities.
    The Liberals - having already effectively yielded on the Speech from
    the Throne, the economy/tax cuts, crime, and national security, and
    also likely to allow a new copyright bill to pass in November - now
    see the environment and use of the federal spending power in areas
    of exclusive provincial jurisdiction as potential issues, but the
    Liberals "own" neither of these files, nor are these issues proven
    QLiberals "own" neither of these files, nor are these issues proven
    vote-getters for them.  The creation of the Manley panel to review
    Afghanistan options has given the government at least three more
    months of breathing space on that contentious issue.   The Liberals
    generally score more highly among voters than the Conservatives on
    social policy, particularly child-care, and on aboriginal affairs,
    making these issues potential hills on which to take a stand, but
    they are not top-of-the-mind for the average voter.

    ¶6.  (SBU)  According to one respected pollster, the Conservatives
    desperately need to find an election issue that will appeal to
    uncommitted women voters if they wish to move from minority to
    majority status in the next election, but the key issues of concern
    to these voters - health care and education - are not natural ones
    for the Conservatives, or even primarily federal priorities.

    ¶7.  (SBU) The lower house is scheduled for a six-week recess
    beginning on December 14, reconvening on January 28.  The most
    obvious possible trigger for an election is the federal budget in
    February or March.  However, parliamentary rules allot twenty-two
    days per calendar year among the opposition parties to debate and
    vote on a topic of their choosing.  The Liberals could theoretically

    OTTAWA 00002016  002 OF 002

    use one of these days unexpectedly to move a formal vote of
    non-confidence to defeat the government, or support the
    non-confidence motion of a third party.  It is possible that the
    government could then fall with a whimper rather than a bang on a
    minor detail or on an issue that no one can yet accurately foresee.

    ¶8.  (SBU)  The Liberals in particular -- but also all other parties
    including the Conservatives -- will likely be in an intense
    listening mood in their constituencies over the holiday recess in
    order to pinpoint the issue that might best resonate with voters.
    They will also want to assess the patience of their workers and the
    public for maintaining the status quo for some time to come, or,
    alternatively, their enthusiasm for biting the bullet and facing
    elections.  The Liberals' decision may ultimately have more to do
    with their internal leadership dynamics, growing embarrassment at
    their Parliamentary impotence, or other internal party politics than
    with policy.  While the Conservatives currently are benefiting from
    the Liberals' stance as they advance their legislative agenda, their
    ambitions to form a majority government -- emboldened by continued
    good if not outstanding poll results -- will likely lead them to try
    to tip this balance by the velocity of their taunts against Dion.

    WILKINS

`