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### Viewing cable 08BOGOTA3537, URIBE CONTINUES TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BOGOTA3537 | 2008-09-22 19:07 | 2011-04-29 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bogota
Appears in these articles: http://www.semana.com/wikileaks/Seccion/168.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #3537/01 2661925
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 221925Z SEP 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4860
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8391
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1028
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6573
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 2348
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 7253
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

` `

    id: 170996
    date: 9/22/2008 19:25
    refid: 08BOGOTA3537
    origin: Embassy Bogota
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination:
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #3537/01 2661925
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 221925Z SEP 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4860
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8391
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1028
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6573
    RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 2348
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 7253
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003537

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO
    SUBJECT: URIBE CONTINUES TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON
    POSSIBLE THIRD TERM

    Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer
    Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

    SUMMARY
    -------
    ¶1. (C) President Uribe continues to keep all options open on
    a possible third presidential term.  He urged Congress to
    shelve the proposal for a constitutional change to allow a
    third term after it was presented on September 10, but
    congressional leaders said Congress is legally required to
    consider the initiative.  Uribe also intimated he would not
    run for a third term, or might delay a reelection bid until
    2014, if his congressional coalition named a single Uribista
    candidate.  Still, coalition leaders tell us it would be very
    difficult for the fractious Uribe coalition to agree on a
    unified candidate   Third term initiative leader Guillermo
    Giraldo predicted Uribe would run in 2010, and said the first
    congressional votes on the initiative would occur in
    mid-October.  He dismissed the 2014 option, arguing that
    Uribe would face strong resistance from whoever was the
    incumbent.  End summary.

    URIBE KEEPING HIS OPTIONS OPEN
    ------------------------------
    ¶2. (C)  President Uribe continues to keep all options open as
    the initiative to amend the constitution to allow for a
    possible third Uribe term makes it way through Congress.
    Uribe said on September 10--the day the reelection proposal
    was presented in Congress--that he wanted Congress to put the
    reelection proposal on the back burner so it could focus on
    pending judicial and political reform bills.  He also
    suggested he might defer any reelection ambitions until 2014.
      Uribe heightened the uncertainty on September 17, saying he
    was inclined not to run for a third term, but only if his
    fractious coalition reached agreement on a single "Uribista"
    presidential candidate.

    ¶3. (C)  Still, House of Representatives President German
    Varon (Cambio Radical) and third term initiative leader
    Guillermo Giraldo (U Party) told us Uribe's statements were
    tactics to deflect third term critics.  Conservative Party
    leader Efrain Cepeda, Giraldo, and Varon told us it would be
    very hard for the coalition to unite around a single
    candidate given the presidential ambitions of Cambio Radical
    leader German Vargas, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos,
    Ambassador to the United Kingdom Noemi Sanin, and others.
    Cepeda said that if Uribe did not run, the election could be
    contested by five or more Uribista candidates--creating the
    prospect of a victory by a leftist candidate such as former
    Bogota Mayor Lucho Garzon and likely prompting another Uribe
    presidential bid.

    ¶4. (C) Former Senate President Nancy Gutierrez agreed that
    Uribe's refusal to clarify his third term intentions is
    designed to ensure that numerous coalition candidates move
    forward, making a unified candidate unlikely.   U Party
    Senator Martha Lucia Ramirez, who is planning her own
    candidacy, said despite his oft-stated claims to want a
    unified coalition candidate, Uribe has done nothing to
    promote such a goal.  Journalist Mauricio Vargas, who is
    close to Uribe, told us the president "does not want to be
    close" to any contenders, including Uribista candidates,
    because such distance would facilitate an Uribe third term
    campaign in either 2010 or 2014.  Giraldo contended that
    Uribe could not wait until 2014, since any incumbent--even an
    Uribista--would likely seek his or her own second term.

    URIBE AS FDR?
    -------------
     ¶5.  (C)  Giraldo told us he and Uribe agreed when the
    reelection effort began that they would not discuss Uribe's
    intentions so Giraldo could maintain "plausible deniability."
     He explained that Uribe is following President Franklin D.
    Roosevelt's 1940 strategy of "sitting back and waiting until
    a last minute clamor from the people" forces him to run.
    Giraldo noted that under the Law of Guarantees (Ley de
    Garantias), Uribe could delay any presidential announcement
    until November 2009, six months before the May 2010
    presidential elections.  Still, most observers think Uribe
    would have to actively campaign to generate the 25% turnout
    of registered voters (approximately 7 million) required to

    make the constitutional referendum valid.  Several Casa de
    Narino insiders tell us Uribe will need to declare his
    intentions even earlier to ensure congressional passage of
    the initiative before the end of the year.

    FIRST CONGRESSIONAL VOTES COULD OCCUR IN MID-OCTOBER
    --------------------------------------------- -------
    ¶6. (U)  The third term proposal language being considered by
    Congress has also raised doubts about Uribe's intentions,
    with some legislators arguing that the current language would
    preclude a 2010 Uribe candidacy.  Giraldo acknowledged the
    issue, but told us Congress could modify the language to
    remove any uncertainty.  He said that despite Uribe's request
    that Congress drop the referendum issue, Congress is legally
    required to consider the measure as the first order of a
    business, since it is the result of a popular initiative.  He
    expects the first two of the required four congressional
    votes to happen in mid-October.
    BROWNFIELD

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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