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### Viewing cable 05OTTAWA741, LIBERAL PARTY CONVENTION WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05OTTAWA741 | 2005-03-09 21:09 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000741

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: CA PGOV PINR PREL
    SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY CONVENTION WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
    CONSERVATIVES TO TOP

    REF: (A) OTTAWA 640 (B) OTTAWA 696 (C) OTTAWA 713

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Liberal Party Convention finished on an
    upbeat note March 6, trumpeting the theme of "Promises Made -
    Promises Delivered" for three days.  The Liberals followed
    the model of successful American convention organizers by
    scripting an overwhelming endorsement of PM Martin,s
    leadership, keeping controversy outside the tent, and using
    big names to draw a crowd.  Of note, convention delegates
    voted 88% in favour of not holding a leadership convention,
    thereby ensuring that Martin will lead the party into the
    next election.  There was little of substance decided on the
    policy side of the convention, although there was animated
    discussion of a number of controversial issues such as
    marijuana, legalization of prostitution and gender/minority
    rights within the party.  The Liberal Party Convention will
    be a hard act to follow for the Conservatives, whose
    convention later in the month in Montreal will deal with more
    fundamental issues of party identity and values against a
    backdrop of consistently flat popularity.  End Summary

    WE ARE THE PARTY OF JOE CANADA
    ------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) As late as last week, media commentators speculated
    that the Liberal Party Convention would be poorly attended
    and tense as candidates-in-waiting lobbied for support and
    Martin and Chrtien supporters squared off.  But for three
    days, the Liberals put on an excellent show, amidst a festive
    atmosphere flush with youthful enthusiasm.  Reports indicate
    that 2500 delegates attended when early predictions were for
    a maximum of 2000.  The Liberal message was clear -- &we are
    the party of mainstream Canada and we are capable of leading
    the country effectively.8  This message was conveyed through
    a skillful combination of keynote speakers, policy workshops,
    an accountability session with the cabinet, and a leadership
    review, all tightly scripted to show unity and avoid public
    controversy.

    MARTIN PASSES LEADERSHIP VOTE COMFORTABLY
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) A key piece of the convention was a leadership
    validation, in which 88% of delegates voted against holding a
    separate leadership convention, thus leaving PM Martin to
    lead the party into the next election.  The Prime Minister,s
    approval rating was better than predicted, but according to
    some observers it reflects a desire for party unity more than
    complete acceptance of Martin,s leadership, and they point
    out that his numbers are down from the 95% he had when he
    first won the party leadership.

    ¶4. (SBU) There was, despite this show of support, a fair
    amount of speculation about who will one day succeed Martin,
    and while no candidates have announced their intention to try
    to displace the party leader in the near future, the media
    was still willing to speculate.  The following names were
    mentioned as potential candidates for a future leadership
    challenge -- MP Maurizio Bevilacqua, MP and former Minister
    Denis Coderre, Minister of Public Works Scott Brison, Foreign
    Minister Pierre Pettigrew, Minister of Immigration Joe Volpe,
    Ambassador Frank McKenna, former MP and leadership candidate
    John Manley, former MP Martin Cauchon, author Michael
    Ignatieff, and Liberal Party organizer Christy Clark.
    Conspicuous by their absence from the convention were
    high-profile Liberals such as John Manley, Sheila Copps, and
    Jean Chrtien, presumably to avert any controversy and keep
    the attention on Martin.

    POLICY ISSUES A SNOOZE
    ----------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) The policy element of the convention was organized
    around thematic workshops in which resolutions were debated
    and selected to advance to the main convention floor, with
    some Priority Resolutions going directly to the general
    debate.  Most of the resolutions that made it to the floor
    were not bold statements about new or controversial policy,
    and this lends some credence to media complaints that the
    substance of the convention was simply boring.  Among the
    policy positions adopted were:

    --    expanding the definition of marriage to include same
    sex couples;
    --    a commitment to ensure clean, publicly managed drinking
    water in the developing world;
    --    meeting Canada,s Kyoto target;
    --    increased support for Canada,s peacekeeping
    initiatives;
    --    changes to employment insurance; and
    --    the development of a national child care program.

    Civil marriage caused a brief and heated debate but the
    debate over a resolution to mandate 50% participation of
    women in executive levels of the party and government was
    even more contentious.

    ¶6. (SBU) Also of note, the Priority Resolution against
    Canadian participation in Ballistic Missile Defence was
    dropped.  Wendy Wright, an executive member of the Young
    Liberals of Canada, which sponsored the resolution, told
    POLFSN that this was because the Liberal government had
    already made this resolution a real policy so it was moot.
    Media commentators speculate, however, that they did it to
    avoid embarrassing debate with anti-American overtones on the
    convention floor.  Several delegates were visibly annoyed by
    the withdrawal of the resolution because they wanted the
    policy on the Liberal books for the record regardless of what
    the government decided earlier.  They suspect that the issue
    will return and they want their opposition firmly entrenched
    as official Liberal policy.

    YOUNG LIBERALS PROMINENT
    ------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) Of the various convention groupings, the Young
    Liberals of Canada stood out.  The Young Liberals
    demonstrated high levels of technical organization and
    enthusiasm while actively advancing their left of center
    agenda.  They functioned as the largest single organized
    group at the convention, which was most clear in the Justice
    and Constitutional workshop where they successfully sponsored
    resolutions on legalizing marijuana and sex worker rights.
    Using cell-phones and text-messaging technology the YLC let
    their members know when their resolutions were up for debate
    and vote, and vehemently defended their legalization of
    marijuana resolution, only to abandon it at the priority
    stage in favour of a resolution on sex workers rights.

    ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The efforts by party organizers and leaders
    to convey the appearance of unity and enthusiasm, regardless
    of the problems that lie under the surface, have prompted
    some observers to call the gathering a pre-election
    convention, following on the heels of a pre-election budget
    (reftel A).  While Martin has reiterated that he is not
    seeking an election, the endorsement of his leadership now
    gives him a mandate to lead the party into a second election,
    whenever it occurs.  Meanwhile the Conservatives did not
    receive the bounce they were hoping for from a Liberal
    meltdown, and are faced with the difficult job of outshining
    the Liberals when they hold their first ever policy
    convention in Montreal March 17-19.  The PM expressed more
    reality than spin when he said of his Conservative foes:  &I
    don't envy them, first they,ve got to figure out who they
    are and what they stand for, and once they figure out what
    they stand for, they,ve got to figure out how to conceal it
    from the Canadian people.8  There was also some value in
    going first, and the Liberals simply had an easier product to
    sell, which they did effectively.  End Comment

    Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

    CELLUCCI

`