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### Viewing cable 07QUITO272, GOVERNMENT AND CONGRESS REACH ACCORD, CALMING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07QUITO272 | 2007-02-01 21:09 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0021
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #0272/01 0322101
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 012101Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6229
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6398
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2335
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB 0384
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1366
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1806
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 000272

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC EC
    SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT AND CONGRESS REACH ACCORD, CALMING
    STREET FOR NOW

    REF: A. QUITO 247

         ¶B. QUITO 200

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  In a joint press conference on January
    31, the President of Congress and Government Minster Gustavo
    Larrea announced an agreement whereby Congress would debate
    the government's proposed referendum on a constituent
    assembly on February 6.  Conciliatory statements by Larrea
    and the congressional reversal of an unpopular appointment
    diminished tensions between the Correa government and
    pro-referendum demonstrators on one side, and the Congress on
    the other. The agreement paves the way for eventual
    Congressional approval of the referendum, which even members
    of the anti-assembly opposition concede cannot be stopped,
    only delayed.  Electoral authorities are expected to act next
    week to restore the political rights of ex-president Lucio
    Gutierrez, a key referendum supporter.  In the wake of street
    violence earlier in the week, the Correa government has
    distanced itself (somewhat) from the excesses of the
    demonstrators, shown some pragmatism in relations with
    Congress and avoided crossing democratic redlines.  End
    Summary.

    Correa Turns Up Heat, Larrea Turns it Down
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) President Correa had incited his supporters to
    defend the referendum on whether to hold a national
    constituent assembly in a nationally-televised address on
    January 28.  Demonstrators from various pro-assembly groups
    turned out on January 30, breaking through police barriers to
    interrupt the congressional session (Ref A), causing several
    minor injuries.  President Correa on January 31 lamented the
    violent excesses but blamed the Congress and the Supreme
    Electoral Tribunal (TSE) for the confrontation, saying that
    by delaying approval of his government's referendum the
    Congress had provoked public reaction.  If necessary, he
    said, he would create a new body to administer the referendum.

    ¶3.  (SBU) At a hastily-organized press conference later that
    day in the office of Congress president Jorge Cevallos,
    attended by representatives of most parties represented in
    Congress, Larrea moderated Correa's tone, declaring the
    government preferred to seek congressional approval for the
    referendum if possible.  Larrea defended the right to
    legitimate protest, but admitted that police protection for
    Congress (which falls under his ministry's control) had been
    inadequate during the demonstration on January 30, saying the
    breach would be investigated.  He denied any intention by the
    government to dissolve Congress, and pledged to "guarantee"
    its ability to function in the future.  Congress president
    Cevallos agreed to put the issue of the referendum at the top
    of Congress' agenda for February 6.

    ¶4.  (SBU) Congress resolved another problem during
    yesterday's session by accepting embattled and discredited
    attorney general Francisco Cucalon's resignation and pledging
    to select his replacement from the list presented by the
    National Judicial Council.  Correcting that substantive,
    legal and political misstep will remove what has been an
    effective point of criticism against this Congress by
    pro-Correa forces.

    Day After--Streets Calm
    -----------------------

    ¶5.  (SBU) After an active day breaking into Congress (Ref A)
    and the TSE a week earlier (Ref B), pro-assembly
    demonstrators called for an evening rally on January 30 in
    the same north Quito park where middle class anti-government
    protesters had rallied against then-president Lucio
    Gutierrez.  The rally fizzled, attracting only 30-40.
    Assembly opponents have accused the Correa government of
    organizing and paying for the more numerous pro-assembly
    demonstrations, and deliberately permitting the demonstrators
    to enter the Congress building.  On January 30, the number of
    demonstrators declined to only 300, who marched to the
    presidential palace on January 31 to show support for the
    assembly referendum.  No demonstrations were expected on
    February 1.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶6. (SBU) The accord between Cevallos and Larrea has already
    calmed the situation in the streets stirred up by the
    government to pressure Congress to approve the referendum.
    Backing down from its threat to proceed without congressional
    approval, the government, thanks to Gutierrez, currently has
    the votes in Congress to bring the referendum within
    constitutional bounds.  Assembly opponents in the PSC and
    PRIAN confide that with Correa high in the polls at the
    outset of his presidency, and the Congress largely
    discredited in public opinion, they hope not to block the
    referendum and subsequent assembly, but only to delay it.
    Some are also thinking ahead to try to gain an adequate
    number of seats on the assembly to block constitutional
    changes they fear will be for the worse.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Separate from but linked to congressional approval
    of the referendum is the issue of restoration of Lucio
    Gutierrez' right to run for office (currently blocked for two
    years by a TSE ruling which kept him out of the 2006
    presidential race).  A majority in the TSE is expected to
    reinstate those rights, permitting Gutierrez to run for the
    assembly himself (he hopes to seek the presidency of the
    assembly if he wins).  The show of "popular support" in the
    streets on January 30 is viewed by some here as Correa's
    attempt to maintain his political purity by changing public
    perceptions of his government's modus vivendi with Gutierrez,
    creating the impression that Congress will approve the
    referendum not because of a political deal with the devil,
    but instead in response to popular will "expressed in the
    streets."

    ¶8.  (SBU) Recent events have demonstrated Correa's
    willingness to take a hard public line against Congress,
    while permitting his minister to avert conflict (at the last
    minute or after some violence, as in this instance) by making
    conciliatory gestures.  That strategy is proving effective at
    this early stage of his presidency, but could cost him
    popular support over the longer term.  For its part, the
    opposition appears eager to provoke Correa's impulsive ire,
    seeking to speed his inevitable descent in the polls.  We are
    staying away from this baiting game, and maintaining our
    focus on democratic redlines (keeping the assembly referendum
    within constitutional bounds, not dissolving Congress) which
    Correa has not yet crossed.
    JEWELL

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