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### Viewing cable 09OTTAWA544, CANADIANS AGAINST FUTURE AFGHAN ROLE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09OTTAWA544 | 2009-07-16 18:06 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO9426
    OO RUEHDBU RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHPW RUEHQU RUEHSL RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #0544/01 1971845
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 161845Z JUL 09
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9667
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0281
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0995

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000544

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV AF CA
    SUBJECT: CANADIANS AGAINST FUTURE AFGHAN ROLE

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Public opinion has turned "decisively" against
    Canada's military mission in Afghanistan, with more than 50 pct now
    opposing it, especially in the key electoral battleground provinces
    of Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, as well as in Atlantic
    Canada.  A separate poll indicated that only 27 pct believe that
    Canadian troops should stay after the present mission ends in 2011,
    even in a non-combat role.  Although Afghanistan is not likely to be
    a ballot box issue in the next federal election, these polls
    underscore the political constraints on both the Conservatives and
    the opposition Liberals in crafting post-2011 policy toward
    Afghanistan, and help to explain the reluctance thus far of either
    party to discuss future commitments.  End summary.

    ¶2.  (U) Ipsos Reid conducted a poll of 1,001 people across Canada
    between June 29 and July 6 on current attitudes toward the Canada's
    Afghan mission.  EKOS Research Associates separately canvassed a
    larger sample of 2,713 respondents from July 8 to 14.  Both polls
    recorded increased support for the Canadian Forces (CF) generally
    (82 pct compared to 77 pct in 2008), especially in Quebec, where
    support for the CF jumped to 76 pct from 58 pct.  However, Ipsos
    Reid suggested that a majority of Canadians now believe that "we've
    fulfilled an obligation" and that the arrival of other [American]
    troops in Afghanistan means "that it is time to bring people home. .
    ."

    A SLIDE IN SUPPORT
    ------------------

    ¶3. (U) EKOS reported a "steady and radical transformation" of public
    attitudes to the CF's mission in Afghanistan since 2002, noting that
    a slim majority (54 pct) of respondents now oppose it, compared to
    34 pct who support it, along with 12 pct who are undecided.  The
    mission now has the support of only 1:3 Canadians (compared to more
    than 2:3 in 2002).  The strongest opposition is in Quebec (73 pct),
    Ontario (49 pct), British Columbia (49 pct), and Atlantic Canada (53
    pct).  Support is highest in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's home
    base of Alberta, at 42 pct, but 45 pct of Albertans now oppose it.
    Nationally, 60 pct of women strongly disapprove of the CF's mission,
    compared to 27 pct of women who believe that Canada should stay in
    Afghanistan.

    ¶4. (U) Ipsos Reid reported that support nationally for the current
    CF mission remains steady at 48 pct (down from 50 pct in January
    2008), but that 52 pct of respondents now believe that Canada should
    withdraw all its troops when the mission ends in 2011.  Only 27 pct
    think that Canadian troops should remain after 2011, even in a
    non-combat role.  In contrast, in 2008, 37 pct of respondents had
    said that Canada should pull out all its troops after 2011, while 45
    pct had said that they should stay for non-combat-related duties,
    including training Afghan security forces.  Currently, only 14 pct
    favor extending the present mission (unchanged from 2008).

    ¶5. (U) Conservative Party voters remain the staunchest supporters of
    Canada's mission in Afghanistan, at 51 pct, compared to 31 pct of
    Liberal Party supporters, 26 pct of Green Party voters, 20 pct of
    New Democratic Party (NDP) voters, and 11 pct of Bloc Quebecois
    supporters.

    NOT A BALLOT BOX ISSUE
    ----------------------

    ¶6. (U) In spite of the drift of support away from the Afghan
    mission, both pollsters confirmed that Afghanistan is not "an
    especially heavy load" on the governing Conservatives.  Ipsos noted
    that the public essentially gave "the government its permission to
    Qthat the public essentially gave "the government its permission to
    continue" with the mission following the House of Commons' March
    2008 bipartisan motion to end the combat mission in 2011.  It was
    not a campaign issue in the October 2008 federal election.

    ¶7.  (U)  The EKOS poll indicated that the two major parties remain
    locked together in overall popular support, with the Conservatives
    marginally ahead at 34.1 pct compared to 32.4 pct for the Liberals,
    although the Conservatives trail slightly in vote-rich Ontario, and
    are a distant third behind the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois in
    Quebec.  EKOS noted that Canadians appear "relatively content" with
    the direction of the country (55 pct) and of the government (49
    pct); only in Quebec did a majority believe that the government is
    heading in the wrong direction.  Even among Liberal supporters, 41
    pct believed that the Conservative government is heading in the
    right direction (compared to 48 pct in the wrong direction).
    However, EKOS argued that the current crop of parties and leaders
    still left voters "cold," suggesting that until Canadians see more
    vibrant political leadership, the political landscape is likely to
    remain "frozen."

    ¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Although Afghanistan is not likely to be a ballot
    box issue in the next federal election (perhaps as early as fall
    2009), the hardening of popular attitudes over the mission's end

    OTTAWA 00000544  002 OF 002

    date in 2011 and growing unwillingness to contemplate a Canadian
    role in Afghanistan post-2011 impose significant constraints on
    public policy planning.  As long as Canada's two main parties remain
    in a political stalemate with the public and neither likely to form
    a majority government after the next election, it will be virtually
    impossible for any government to commit to a combat role for the CF
    in Afghanistan after 2011 and difficult even to make firm decisions
    about other assistance beyond that date.
    BREESE

`