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### Viewing cable 06REYKJAVIK187, ICELANDIC ACADEMIC CLAIMS U.S. BASE SHUTDOWN TIED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06REYKJAVIK187 | 2006-05-26 18:06 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Reykjavik

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    VZCZCXYZ0002
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHRK #0187/01 1461806
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY ADXD604CA MSI1461 640A)
    P 261806Z MAY 06 ZFF4
    FM AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2780
    INFO RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0218

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L REYKJAVIK 000187

    SIPDIS

    C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y:  QUOTATION AND APOSTROPHE SIGNS
        CORRECTED THROUGHOUT TEXT

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016
    TAGS: MARR PREL KPAO ECA IIP IC
    SUBJECT: ICELANDIC ACADEMIC CLAIMS U.S. BASE SHUTDOWN TIED
    TO FORMER PM ODDSSON,S RETIREMENT

    Classified By: DCM Philip Kosnett    Reason: 1.5d

    ¶1. (C) Summary: An Icelandic historian's assertion that the
    U.S. would not be shutting down Naval Air Station Keflavik
    (NASKEF) had former PM and FM David Oddsson not retired from
    politics has excited the media and driven the country's
    leading politicians into a round of recriminations.  The
    suggestion that Haarde "lost the Americans" will put
    pressure on the GOI to adopt a tough stance at upcoming talks
    on base closure issues, and to continue to push the U.S. for
    "robust, visible defense arrangements" in the post-NASKEF
    era. End summary.

    ¶2. (SBU) Icelandic politicians of every stripe have rushed to
    respond to the publication this month of an article by
    historian Valur Ingimundarson in an Icelandic literary
    journal.  Ingimundarson concluded that the personal
    relationship between President Bush and Iceland's David
    Oddsson (Independence Party Prime Minister until 2004 and
    then Foreign Minister until his resignation from politics in
    September 2005) was responsible for the retention of U.S.
    military forces in Iceland until this year.  Oddsson's
    successors (Progressive Party PM Halldor Asgrimsson and
    Independence Party FM Geir Haarde) lacked the Washington pull
    to save NASKEF, the historian hypothesized. Ingimundarson,
    who interviewed Washington officials on a December 2005
    Voluntary Visitor trip, sourced his story in part to unnamed
    USG officials.

    ¶3. (SBU) Key politicians, comments:

    -- Asgrimsson told the media, "I would find it strange if
    the U.S. makes decisions like that.  If they work like that
    they wouldn't be very credible in the eyes of other
    countries... I have met the U.S. President a few times, and
    he has always been friendly to us Icelanders.  Personal
    connections always matter in that context, but in the files I
    have nothing that indicates such a personal commitment..."

    -- Haarde acknowledged that Oddsson's good relationship with
    the U.S. had been important but, asked if he were upset that
    he did not have comparable connections, replied, "I don,t
    lose sleep over it."  Bilateral discussions continue, he
    added, and the Government's job now is to deal with what
    emerges from them.

    -- Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir, chair of the main opposition
    Alliance, drew attention to the article's mention (not
    previously widely known in Iceland) that the U.S. had
    informed Oddsson in December 2002 of its decision to withdraw
    U.S. fighters from Iceland, and that the GOI had not gone
    public with this until after May 2003 elections.  (In the
    end, Oddsson persuaded the White House to reconsider
    withdrawal of the aircraft, effectively delaying the
    withdrawal until this year.)  Gisladottir said that the
    Icelandic Government's support for the invasion of Iraq
    could now be seen in a completely new light.  (Comment:
    Gisladottir seems to suggest that Oddsson's support for the
    U.S. on Iraq was not a matter of principle but a bid to
    reverse the U.S. decision to withdraw the fighters.  End
    comment.)

    -- Gisladottir's party colleague Ossur Skarphedinsson, Left
    Green Party Chair Steingrimur Sigfusson, and Liberal Party
    Chair Gudjon Arnar Kristjansson have called for a
    parliamentary investigation of how the 2002 notification was
    "covered up" and of how the notification (may have)
    influenced Iceland's Iraq policy.

    ¶4. (SBU) Ingimundarson told POLOFF May 26 he was surprised at
    the uproar, reflecting that the GOI is "of course wounded
    about (the closure of NASKEF)" and that the media had
    exaggerated and sensationalized his arguments.  The tempest,
    he mused, is symptomatic of politicians, (and their media
    friends,) anxiety about the future of U.S-Iceland defense
    ties.

    ¶5. (C) Comment:  Ingimundarson's thesis bears a striking
    resemblance to that put forward to POLOFF March 17 by
    Oddsson's son, Thorsteinn Davidsson, political advisor to
    Minister of Justice Bjorn Bjarnason (Independence Party).
    Davidsson, Bjarnason, and others in the IP's right wing are
    furious at the ascendance of the moderate Haarde as IP
    Chairman and likely next Prime Minister.  They are privately
    frustrated at the conciliatory tone Haarde has taken toward
    the U.S. since the base drawdown announcement March 15.  It
    is possible they encouraged Ingimundarson (son of an Oddsson
    ally) to burnish their hero Oddsson's legacy and pressure
    Haarde into taking a tougher negotiating stance.

    ¶6. (C) However the author came to develop his thesis, the
    public discussion of whether Haarde "lost the Americans" will

    bring pressure on the GOI to adopt a tough stance at upcoming
    talks on base closure issues and to continue to push the U.S.
    for "robust, visible defense arrangements" in the
    post-NASKEF era.  End comment.

    VAN VOORST

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