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### Viewing cable 07QUITO364, CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07QUITO364 | 2007-02-13 23:11 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHQT #0364/01 0442314
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 132314Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6311
    INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6432
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2362
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB 0409
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1402
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1870
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS QUITO 000364

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
    SUBJECT: CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT
    ASSEMBLY

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  A majority in Congress approved on
    February 13 the Correa government's proposed constituent
    assembly proposal, paving the way for expected approval by
    electoral authorities to organize a referendum.  Correa
    welcomed Congress' action and MinGov Larrea declared it a
    victory for social and indigenous groups.  In approving the
    government's proposal, Congress made changes to the statute,
    most significantly limiting the scope of the assembly from
    dismissing Congress or the President.  The Government is
    expected to welcome Congress' action.  If approved by
    electoral authorities later this week, as expected, the
    referendum could be held in April and elections for the
    Assembly in late September.  Any new constitution would be
    put to a referendum after the Assembly concludes sometime
    between March and May, 2008.  Congressional approval is a
    major political victory for Correa, preventing a threatened
    crisis by bringing the assembly within the bounds of the
    constitution.  End Summary.

    Congress Finally Votes
    ----------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) With several thousand pro-Assembly demonstrators
    outside, the Ecuadorian Congress today cleared the way for
    President Rafael Correa's referendum on a national
    constituent assembly.  Winning by a vote of 57-1,
    pro-assembly forces included the 24 votes of Lucio
    Gutierrez's PSP, the left-of-center parties, and,
    surprisingly, three of five votes from the conservative UDC
    party.  Members of the PRIAN, PSC and remaining UDC members
    walked out of Congress before the vote.

    New Statute and Timeline
    ------------------------

    ¶3.  (U) The approved statute provides for a referendum
    question that would ask voters to vote yes or no to the
    questions "Do you approve the convocation of a national
    constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution under the
    rules described in the attached statute?"  The approved
    statute includes some changes to the statute originally
    submitted by the Government.

    Specifically, the approved statute:

    -- proclaims the Assembly to be "unbounded" while
    simultaneously declaring it would "respect the popular will
    of the people expressed at the polls on both October 15
    (Congress) and November 26, 2006 (President)";

    -- eliminates the signature requirement for Assembly
    candidates (except for the six candidates representing
    Ecuadorians living abroad);

    -- eliminates the proposal to have 50% of Assembly candidates
    under age 45 - the minimum age for Assembly candidates is 20;

    -- extends the period by which the Assembly elections shall
    be held to 150 days after the popular referendum;

    Congress did not change other parts of the statute, including:

    -- leaves intact the proposed number of Assembly members at
    ¶130.  (Of those, 24 would be elected nationally, six would
    represent Ecuadorians living abroad, and 100 would be elected
    by province);

    -- leaves intact the requirement that the Assembly take
    decisions by an absolute majority (i.e. 50%   1 votes);

    -- leaves intact the Assembly period of 180 days, with the
    possibility of a 60-day extension;

    -- requires certification that Assembly candidates have lived
    in their home city for the two years prior to the election;

    -- specifies that the new constitution and Ecuadorian
    political state will take effect upon approval by referendum.

    ¶4.  (U) Having cleared the Congress, we anticipate the
    following timeline for the Constituent Assembly, assuming no
    further setbacks.

    This week: Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) convokes
    referendum.

    Mid-April: Referendum takes place, likely approving the
    Assembly.

    Late September: Assembly election held.

    March/May, 2008: New constitution put to referendum for
    approval.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶5.  (SBU) A majority of Congress saw the folly in resisting
    any longer this very popular measure from a still equally
    popular president, focusing instead on mitigating the
    proposal around the margins. Correa insured the heat stayed
    on with pressure tactics to cajole a majority into action,
    threatening to provoke a constitutional crisis if necessary.
    During his weekly radio address on February 10, Correa again
    threatened to go around Congress and the TSE, if necessary,
    by creating an ad hoc body to administer the referendum if
    either institution delayed its approval past February 15.
    The GOE tacitly welcomed street demonstrations convoked for
    February 12-13, ratcheting up the pressure on the unpopular
    Congress.  Meanwhile, Minister of Government Gustavo Larrea
    negotiated the face-saving compromise with the pro-assembly
    elements of Congress, including Gutierrez's PSP, behind the
    scenes.

    ¶6.  (SBU) The same pro-assembly majority is likely to act
    favorably in the TSE, unless Gutierrez pulls his support.  He
    is unlikely to do so, since the same majority is needed to
    restore Gutierrez' right to run for the Assembly.  Some of
    the Assembly's most radical supporters will gripe about the
    new limitations on its powers, but the government is
    apparently willing to declare victory.
    JEWELL

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