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### Viewing cable 06QUITO2898, ELECTION: CORREA WINS BIG, NOBOA FIZZLES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06QUITO2898 | 2006-11-27 03:03 | 2011-05-02 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Quito

`

    VZCZCXRO8540
    OO RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG
    RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
    DE RUEHQT #2898/01 3310326
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    O 270326Z NOV 06
    FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5765
    INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6214
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2190
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ PRIORITY 0242
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1187
    RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1480
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002898

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
    SUBJECT: ELECTION: CORREA WINS BIG, NOBOA FIZZLES

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Leftist candidate Rafael Correa
    (representing the Proud and Sovereign Fatherland
    Movement-PAIS and Socialist Party) won the runoff round of
    presidential voting decisively over rival candidate Alvaro
    Noboa (PRIAN) on November 26, according to most exit polls
    and quick count results.  The most credible quick count put
    the difference at 13 percent.  One polling firm associated
    with Noboa reported a Noboa victory; Noboa questioned poll
    results and called on his supporters to wait for official
    results (expected by November 28 at the earliest).  Voting
    proceeded normally on election day, with few unusual
    incidents reported.  Correa declared victory in a
    post-electoral press conference, and cited vote results as
    evidence of support for his proposed constituent assembly to
    profoundly reform the state, including Congress.  He
    reaffirmed cabinet selections announced before the first
    round of voting on October 15, but did not announce any new
    names.  We recommend the Department congratulate Correa on
    his apparent victory on November 27; the Ambassador will call
    Correa after that statement is issued.  We recommend
    postponing any  presidential congratulatory call until after
    results are official.   End Summary.

    Preliminary Results
    -------------------

    ¶2.  (U) Exit polls:       Correa          Noboa
    --CEDATOS:                 56.8           43.2
    --Market:                  57.9           42
    --RTS/Teleamazonas:        57             43
    --Consultar (Noboa-funded):36             42

    ¶3.  (SBU) Quick counts:
    --RTS/Teleamazonas:        56.35          43.65
    (with 95.6% of sample)
    --Citizen Participation:   56.40          43.60
    (with 94.4% of sample)

    ¶4.  (U) Official Count:  No results reported from electoral
    authorities (TSE) as of 10:00 pm on November 26.  Official
    results are due within 10 days.  First round results took
    over a week, but TSE officials hope to announce final results
    by November 28 or 29.

    ¶5.  (U) According to CEDATOS' exit poll/USAID-supported NGO
    Citizen Participation's quick count, further breakdown of
    results is as follows:
                                 Correa        Noboa
    Coast (49.8% of population)  43.8/44.3    56.2/55.7
    Highlands (44.9%)            70.8/68.7    29.2/31.3
    Amazon (4.5%)                62.5/n/a     37.5/n/a

    Rural:                       n/a/61.1     n/a/38.9
    Urban:                       n/a/55.1    n/a/44.9

    Null votes (Cedatos):  5.0%; Blank votes (Cedatos):  1.5%

    Voting Goes Smoothly
    --------------------

    ¶6.  (U)  Few incidents marred voting on November 26.  As
    usual, some voting booths were delayed in opening, due to the
    tardiness of some volunteer election officials.  Voting was
    suspended in the canton of Portete, in Azuay province, where
    protesters had blocked an access road with burning tires.  An
    individual posing as an election official in a Quito voting
    station was identified by PAIS supporters and arrested;
    another individual reportedly fled the scene.  Also normal
    were sporadic reports of multiple arrests for proselytizing
    within voting stations, and more numerous arrests for
    imbibing or selling alcohol during the election period
    (violators are normally released after the dry period ends at
    noon the day after elections).

    ¶7.  (SBU) Embassy observers and media reported relatively low
    turnout by voters in several areas (Cuenca, Azuay; Quininde,
    Esmeraldas; Guayaquil) as of early afternoon.  Hot
    temperatures in Guayaquil may have affected turnout there.

    ¶8.  (SBU) OAS election observation mission (EOM) Chief Rafael
    Bielsa abruptly left Ecuador on November 25, after arriving

    QUITO 00002898  002 OF 003

    in Guayaquil on November 24.  An OAS statement claimed that
    Bielsa had been called back to Washington to report on
    election developments.  Press here speculated about the
    motives for Bielsa's departure.  The OAS will issue a
    statement about the electoral process on November 27.  OAS
    EOM Deputy Benamor (please protect) told us the OAS quick
    count, using a small sample which will not be publicly
    released, showed a 58/42 Correa victory.  Results reported by
    the Embassy's 19 volunteers observing as part of the EOM
    correspond to the general trends reported by polling firms.

    Reaction
    --------

    ¶9.  (U) Noboa immediately questioned the credibility of exit
    poll results, pending official results from the TSE.  He made
    no claims of electoral fraud, but called on his party's
    newly-elected congressional delegation to observe the
    official count process in the provinces.

    ¶10.  (U) An hour after the polls closed, Correa held a press
    conference in which he declared victory ("David has slain
    Goliath"), thanking his supporters, calling for national
    unity and cooperation with Ecuadorians "with clean hands" and
    pledging to "end the long sad night of neo-liberal policies."
     Responding to questions, Correa repeated his general
    campaign themes, including his opposition to an FTA with the
    U.S. He expressed hopes for good relations with neighboring
    Colombia, pledged to maintain dollarization, renegotiate
    foreign debt, explore the possibility of re-joining OPEC, and
    reaffirmed his earlier partial list of cabinet choices drawn
    from key inner circle campaign advisors.

    ¶11.  (U) Interviewed after quick count results were
    announced, ex-president Lucio Gutierrez suggested that
    Congress should be allowed time (up to six months) to act on
    constitutional reforms.  If Congress blocked needed political
    reform, his party would join in support of convoking a
    constituent assembly.

    Comment and Recommendation
    --------------------------

    ¶12.  (SBU) Early results indicate a decisive win, reducing
    the likelihood of post-electoral conflict.  We do not expect
    final results to differ much from Citizen Participation's
    quick count, the most credible of all the polling
    organizations in our view.  The single anomalous result came
    from the polling firm Consultar, which is in the direct
    employ of Noboa and is not a credible source.  If official
    results confirm this early result, we would not expect
    significant challenges or demonstrations from the Noboa camp.

    ¶13.  (SBU) With results unlikely to change, we recommend the
    Department issue or make a statement on November 27
    congratulating Correa as the apparent victor, along the lines
    of what was issued after the Morales victory in Bolivia.  We
    would gain points from many observers here for graciousness
    in the face of what is widely assumed to be an undesired
    result. Delaying such a statement would make us appear
    grudging, and risks starting us off badly with the incoming
    government to no benefit.  The Ambassador proposes to
    follow-up the Department's statement with a congratulatory
    call to Correa on November 27.  We recommend that a
    presidential call be scheduled after results are official
    (currently forecast for November 28 or 29.)  Looking ahead,
    we will seek to hold Correa to the more moderate rhetoric of
    recent weeks. With very limited support from the new
    congress, no alliances in place with major mayors or
    provincial leaders and a wary business class, he faces far
    from smooth sailing in his ability to pursue a radical
    agenda.

    ¶14.  (U) Suggested Press Statement
    ----------------------------------

    The United States congratulates the People of Ecuador for
    exercising their democratic rights at the polls and for
    conducting peaceful elections.

    While we are still awaiting the official results from
    Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, preliminary results

    QUITO 00002898  003 OF 003

    point to a victory by Rafael Correa during the November 26
    second-round presidential election.

    We offer our congratulations to Mr. Correa on his apparent
    victory.

    As we have said during previous conversations with Mr.
    Correa, the United States will continue to build on its
    successful cooperation with Ecuador, consistent with our
    commitment to its democratic institutions and the prosperity
    of its people.
    JEWELL

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