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### Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON696, NZ'S "PRESIDENTIAL RACE:" FOCUS ON PM CLARK AND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05WELLINGTON696 | 2005-09-11 19:07 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000696

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN

    STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP
    NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN
    SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
    PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015
    TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
    SUBJECT: NZ'S "PRESIDENTIAL RACE:" FOCUS ON PM CLARK AND
    DON BRASH

    REF: WELLINGTON 695

    Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David R. Burnett,
    for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C)  Summary:  As reftel notes, in this undecided
    campaign, the personality of the major parties' leaders may
    really influence voters' decisions.  The following are two
    brief snapshots of what's on offer.   End Summary.
    --------------------------
    Prime Minister Helen Clark
    --------------------------
    ¶2.  (C) Clark is the consummate career politician, who has
    been accused of acting with the sort of arrogance that can
    come with being the largely uncontested leader of the country
    for the last two terms. She often contrasts her depth of
    political experience with that of Brash, whom she tries to
    portray as a political neophyte.  Indeed her capability to
    run the country's affairs is widely recognized, but this is
    not to say that her personality wins over the voters.  Her
    length of political service is also both a liability and an
    asset: Kiwis begrudgingly respect her experience, yet at the
    same time are suspicious of her ability to shield herself
    from association with her Government's errors.
    ¶3.  (C) Clark's grasp of policy detail is positively
    Herculean and has been put to good use at her weekly press
    conferences and now in the election debates. Her political
    instincts are widely recognized, despite some recent
    decisions clearly being on the wrong side of public opinion,
    notably the woefully received 2005 Budget which failed to
    provide much anticipated and desired tax relief to the middle
    class.  Clark is faithful to the concept of centralized power
    within government.  All policy is vetted by her office and is
    tightly controlled, as is the campaign.  Very few are allowed
    into the inner circle. As Prime Minister she is a very
    controlling manager, bordering on obsessively so.
    ¶4.  (C) Clark avoids obvious falsehoods and has by and large
    supervised a more open government and disciplined erring
    ministers. Yet she also habitually shies away from
    close-to-the-bone truth, as evidenced with two noted
    incidents.  In the first, she signed a painting donated to
    charity as her own during the last election campaign, even
    though it later came to light it was the work of another.
    This campaign season, the country witnessed the trial of a
    number of police officers accused of rushing the PM's
    motorcade at dangerous speeds to catch a flight to a rugby
    match.  In both instances, Clark was less than forthcoming
    with taking responsibility for her actions or that of those
    who ultimately fell under her command.  She very quickly cut
    support from Labour MP John Tamihere when he was implicated
    in financial improprieties.  One gets the feeling that she is
    not the sort of leader to have a Truman-esque  the buck
    stops here, plaque on her desk.
    ¶5.  (C) Clark is no shrinking violet. Even before hard-edged,
    grizzled union men put her through the fire in her early days
    in the Labour Party, she was a forthright and resolute
    student activist. Clark was at the forefront of a group of
    iron-willed feminist MPs who stormed the Labour party in the
    early eighties despite their male counterpart's skepticism.
    Many of these MPs remain in politics and sit at the right
    hand of Clark.
    ¶6.  (C) Clark is goal orientated and usually meticulous in
    her planning. A demanding task-master, she exacts high
    standards and a work ethic from staff and colleagues. Despite
    the Labour Party having a history of turning on their young,
    Clark has a very loyal following and her inner circle has
    been notably cohesive since she became leader of the party
    (her Chief of Staff, and gatekeeper, Heather Simpson, has
    been at Clark's side since she was a backbencher. Simpson,
    often referred to as the second most powerful person is New
    Zealand, would walk across hot coals for Clark and is so
    close to her that she can often speak on the behalf of Clark,
    privately of course).
    ¶7.  (C) Clark carefully weighs her arena, timing, message and
    the appropriate messenger.  For the first, head-to-head
    debate with Brash, Clark nixed planned, dual radio-television
    coverage, favoring instead only the radio format.  While
    Brash is no fashion plate, Clark is universally recognized as
    not "camera friendly."  When the media pressed her for weeks
    on an election date, Clark obstinately responded in refrain
    that she would make the date known "in due course."  When
    queried in Parliament, Clark routinely repeats limited,
    scripted points, and refuses to be pushed into further
    explanation or into ground that she does not control -- quite
    different from Brash's manner in which he appears compelled
    to explain.  However, Clark is quick and sharp with criticism
    if she believes she has either evidence to back her up or
    sufficient cover that evidence is unnecessary, such as citing
    confidential meeting notes which Labour claims shows that

    SIPDIS
    Brash has a secret agenda to eliminate the anti-nuclear
    legislation.  When she has neither evidence nor sufficient
    cover, Clark deploys Labour ministers to make the accusations
    and avoids potential, personal blow-back.  Recent examples
    include Education Minister Mallard's unsubstantiated claims
    of U.S. financing of the National campaign and recent posters
    from Young Labour depicted President Bush alongside Brash,
    conveying that Brash would take New Zealand into Iraq.
    ¶8.  (C) Although Clark is often viewed as cold and somewhat
    remote to the aspirations of families - she has no children -
    Clark and husband Peter Davies have a close bond.
    Furthermore, she is very close to her parents, sisters and
    their children and often holidays with them. Her physical
    appearance is often mocked as dowdy and drab, despite
    periodic efforts, especially at election time, to inject some
    glamour into her looks. Clark does not appear to take such
    mockery to heart and appears to succumb to such "extreme
    makeovers" only at the behest of her image gurus. But by and
    large, she gives the impression that she is very comfortable
    in her own skin and is more interested in substance over
    style.  Still, Clark's exterior armor is not without its
    chinks, and her rare political missteps often flow from her
    personal than her political side.  She has complained that
    National's billboards portray her as "sleepy and grumpy."
    Two weeks following a debate, Clark publicly lamented abuse
    suffered from National supporters among the studio audience.
    Recently, she entered a cockpit of an Air New Zealand flight
    to confront a pilot who -- incorrectly -- blamed her for the
    flight's delay.
    ¶9.  (C) Perhaps a holdover from her upbringing in a very
    frugal household, Clark exhibits a Presbyterian streak in her
    determination to run balanced budgets. Arguably, Clark's
    greatest strength is in her intellect (recognized by Brash
    himself during a recent leader's debate). She has also
    demonstrated coolness under pressure and steely ability to
    withstand assaults that would have felled most mere mortals.
    Clark's greatest weakness is her reserve. Coupled with her
    mental agility and her passion for elite or solitary
    recreations (opera and cross-country skiing) and her
    childlessness, ordinary folk sense distance. Despite this,
    many who know her intimately maintain that the private Clark
    can be funny, warm and open, and we at the Embassy have found
    the same. These traits, however, often do not come across on
    television.
    -------------
    Dr. Don Brash
    -------------
    ¶10.  (C) Brash portrays an awkward humanism that opens the
    door for the middle ground vote.  In campaign footage, he
    always wears a tie -- a sometimes striking contrast such as
    when he awkwardly slipped behind the wheel of a dragster or
    when he has appeared side-by-side a hard-hat wearing
    contingent to promote his party's tax cut policy.  While his
    wire-rimmed glasses, tie and overall professorial demeanor
    suggest that he lies somewhat removed from the "mainstream"
    Kiwi voter that he courts, he is nevertheless present and
    engaging these mainstream -- or more precisely, swing voters.
     Is it having an effect?   Recent polling suggests movement
    of "modest" income voters NZD 21 to 33 thousand; USD 15 to 24
    thousand) from Labour to National (a swing as much as 15
    points by one poll).
    ¶11.  (C) Brash can exude authority, gravitas and, very
    nearly, power. Embassy officers have been struck how much
    more confident he has become about his own political skills
    during this campaign.  However, all this can be washed away
    when Brash is cornered by a difficult question requiring a
    succinct and straight forward answer. In such cases, he often
    flounders and in doing so loses some of the key qualities
    many look to in a leader, thus devaluing his currency.  In
    particular, Brash has fumbled, repeatedly, on matters of
    policy and recollection of events concerning foreign
    relations, asset sales, and the influence of outside
    interests, such as business and religious groups.  His
    bumbling results from -- among other things -- his relatively
    limited experience with political campaigning and the
    political fray; his apparent, compelling need to explain
    (often with too much detail) as demonstrated on his
    equivocating on asset sales in a recent debate; and remnants
    of old-fashioned (though not necessarily outmoded) values.
    As such, he has in part lived up to Labour's label of him as
    an amateur.  On the other hand, Brash portrays a campaign and
    policy platform based on values personally held rather than
    policy objectives based on polls.  Kiwis respond to this,
    even when Brash expresses himself ineptly.  Comments that he
    took it easy on Clark in a debate because she was a woman and
    that he is not a feminist, have, ironically, seemed to
    capture several points of the woman vote from Labour.
    Brash's gentlemanly way may also portray his general distaste
    of and aversion to negative campaign politics.)
    ¶12.  (C) Opinion is split on whether Brash is brave or just
    plain naive in the way he at times acts contrary to the
    conventional wisdom of a politician. (He entered politics
    only in 2003.) Despite Labour trying to paint him as
    dishonest and duplicitous, Brash has made the "honest"
    appraisals of New Zealand's current state of affairs a
    hallmark of his leadership, such as the state of race
    relations as articulated in his speeches on Maori issues
    ("Orewa I and II").  Brash has even said that he will be
    honest "even if it hurts politically," although ironically
    this week he belatedly admitted he had in fact known of plans
    by a Christian group to distribute anti-Labour and Greens
    pamphlets, despite having denied this.   Even so, in his
    short time in politics Brash has made forthright, even
    courageous, remarks on many issues considered sacrosanct in
    New Zealand politics (again race relations and, although less
    explicitly, the anti-nuclear legislation).
    ¶13.  (C) Another interesting aspect of the campaign has been
    National's repetition of a clip following Brash's January
    2004 Orewa I speech.  The clip shows a bit of turf striking
    him in the face -- literal mudslinging.  The image would
    likely portray leadership weakness to the American eye, but
    curiously, the "average" Kiwi appears to perceive this as
    testament to Brash's willingness to highlight the need to
    address the hard issues of race relations rather than to
    white-wash the differences around the edges.
    ¶14.  (C) Recently, Helen Clark, Don Brash and several other
    candidates appeared in a series of photographs, each holding
    the same baby.  Brash happily kissed the baby, but Clark
    nearly held the baby at arm's length.  The collection of
    photos exhibited what is a silent theme in the election,
    important to many New Zealanders -- that Brash better
    understands the dilemmas of families.  He has spoken openly
    about the failure of his first marriage, has children from
    that marriage, and commented freely on his marriage to his
    Singapore-born wife.  His wife has featured in party
    materials, and his daughter has appeared on the campaign
    trail with him.  In part, the connection to family is novel
    because campaigning with family in New Zealand is not
    traditional.  The subtle message is that Brash -- though not
    of the mainstream -- is very near to it, unlike the
    relatively distant Clark.
    ¶15.  (C) An analysis of Brash's core self is by no means a
    linear exercise. He is somewhat of a paradox. Although a
    classical liberal, free marketer and economic rationalist, he
    voted for the bill that decriminalized prostitution.  He is
    divorced and remarried; in fact he cheated on his first wife.
     Brash's residual Presbyterianism is of the liberal variety,
    not the stern Scottish brand.  And his "Christian socialism,"
    which defined his formative years and is a holdover from his
    father's politics, lingers in a residual social conscience.
    Rather than a "no" or even "minimal" government advocate, he
    is a "limited" government man. The government, he has
    declared, "has a vital role, including funding education and
    providing a social safety net."
    Burnett

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