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### Viewing cable 08OTTAWA1165, TORIES POISED FOR MODEST GAINS IN QUEBEC

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08OTTAWA1165 | 2008-09-04 11:11 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO5153
    PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #1165/01 2481145
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 041145Z SEP 08
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8437
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001165

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SENV CA
    SUBJECT: TORIES POISED FOR MODEST GAINS IN QUEBEC

    REF: A) Montreal 246

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With a fall federal election all but certain, our
    English and French-speaking contacts in Montreal told us that the
    Conservatives are well-positioned to add to their eleven seats in
    Quebec.  They downplayed the possibility of a major breakthrough,
    however, and said that seat changes in Quebec would be minor.
    Overall, they said that the election is more likely to be decided in
    neighboring Ontario province.  This cable complements Montreal's
    report on two ongoing federal by-election campaigns in Quebec
    scheduled for September 8 (Ref. A). End summary

    ELECTION COUNTDOWN
    ------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Canada is on an election countdown.  Although an election
    could come at any time, most observers expect the Governor General
    to dissolve Parliament between September 5 and 7 for Election Day on
    October 14.  The PM will likely cite opposition obstruction in
    Parliament and uncertain economic times as the basis for seeking a
    new mandate.  Opposition parties accuse the Conservatives of rushing
    to the polls in the belief that their chances of winning are better
    now than if they wait while the economy deteriorates.  Recent
    national and Quebec polls suggest that the Conservatives may be
    poised to make gains.  The launch of a national campaign would
    cancel three federal by-elections already in progress (including two
    in the Montreal-area ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie and
    Saint-Lambert) scheduled for September 8, and a fourth scheduled for
    September 22.  An early election would also override Harper's own
    legislation passed in 2007 introducing fixed-date elections on four
    year terms with the first such election set for October 19, 2009.

    CONSERVATIVES POISED FOR GAINS?
    -------------------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) At almost 31 months, Harper's Conservative government is
    the second-longest serving minority government in Canadian history.
    As a result, our contacts said that Quebecers are unlikely to punish
    the Conservatives for pre-empting their fixed-date election law.
    Further, many of our contacts said that the Conservatives are
    well-positioned to wrest at least five seats from the Bloc Quebecois
    in rural Quebec (including in the Eastern Townships region and
    neighboring ridings close to those they already hold outside Quebec
    City) to add to the eleven the Conservatives currently hold in the
    province.  Our contacts believed that the Conservatives are
    increasingly emerging as the primary federalist alternative to the
    Bloc outside Montreal, but they agreed that the Conservatives will
    continue to be shut out of the island of Montreal which remains a
    Liberal fortress.

    ¶4. (SBU) Overall, however, the majority of our interlocutors
    downplayed prospects for a major Conservative breakthrough in the
    province, arguing that Quebecers support a continued strong role for
    the Bloc in Ottawa and are comfortable with the minority status quo.
     Consequently, many said they believed that the Bloc would hold most
    of its current 48 seats with only minor slippage.  Nonetheless, one
    well-connected Conservative insider refused to rule out greater
    gains, noting that historically Quebec rural seats have shown they
    can shift "en masse" and, once they begin to move, could "fall like
    dominoes."  In contrast, the majority of our contacts saw no chance
    of any movement for the Liberals whom they believed would hold their
    11 seats on the island of Montreal, but make no inroads outside the
    metropolitan area.

    ¶5. (SBU) Several of our contacts said that neither the Conservatives
    nor the Liberals have effective organizations on the ground.  One
    Qnor the Liberals have effective organizations on the ground.  One
    Conservative insider noted that the Conservatives would probably get
    help from the right-leaning provincial Action Democratique du Quebec
    (ADQ) in rural Quebec, although he acknowledged that the usefulness
    of that help has dwindled with the ADQ's poll numbers.  He noted
    that the Conservatives could also benefit from discreet support from
    the provincial Liberal Party in suburban ridings (such as in the
    Saint-Lambert by-election on Montreal's south shore), where the
    provincial party may be prepared to work for whichever federal
    Liberal or Conservative candidate had the best chance of defeating
    the Bloc.

    ¶6. (SBU) Many of our contacts agreed that the federal Liberals have
    not rebuilt their organization after it was hollowed out by the
    sponsorship scandal, but affirmed that their support remains solid
    on the island of Montreal.  They noted that PM Harper's Quebec
    cabinet ministers have not been strong performers, including
    Heritage Minister Josee Verner and former Foreign Affairs Minister
    Maxime Bernier, although none were likely to lose their seats.
    Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon was probably the most solid
    performer.  In particular, International Trade Minister Michel
    Fortier -- an appointed senator who has committed to run in the
    Montreal-area riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges in the next election --
    has not been a key player and is highly unlikely to win his seat.

    OTTAWA 00001165  002 OF 002

    THE ECONOMY TRUMPS THE ENVIRONMENT
    ----------------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) The economy and pocket-book concerns, especially rising gas
    prices, appear to be the major ballot box issues for Quebecers.
    They are the staunchest supporters in Canada of the Kyoto Protocol,
    but many of our contacts asserted that the federal Liberals' Green
    Shift plan had gained no more traction in Quebec than in the rest of
    the country.  Many of them seemed to agree that Quebecers neither
    understand Green Shift nor believe it is suited to the province.
    Many strenuously refuted the argument -- common in western Canada --
    that the Green Shift was designed to appeal to Quebec and central
    Canada.  Many of our interlocutors said that Quebecers neither asked
    for the Green Shift, nor are grateful for it, underlining that the
    federal Liberals should expect no reward.  Moreover, they noted that
    Liberal leader Stephane Dion had failed to distinguish himself
    sufficiently from the Conservatives on any issue except the
    environment, and had had little to say on the economy.

    STATUS QUO IS FINE
    ------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) Overall, Quebecers seem relatively satisfied with the
    status quo and would endorse a second minority Conservative
    government, according to the majority opinion of our contacts with
    whom we spoke recently.  One noted that "minorities mean goodies"
    and that Quebecers enjoy the benefit of the Bloc Quebecois's vocal
    advocacy in Ottawa and of a federal government eager to win seats in
    the province.  Our contacts also expressed agreement that the Bloc,
    which rode a wave of public anger over the sponsorship scandal in
    the 2004 and 2006 elections, would be hard pressed to repeat these
    successes.  Many predicted that shifts in Quebec seats would be
    minor and not enough to make the difference between a majority and
    minority government.  Our contacts' insights were largely supported
    by a CROP poll in Quebec on August 27 that suggested that
    Conservative support had risen to 31 percent to 30 percent for the
    Bloc Quebecois, largely due to the weakness of the federal Liberals
    than enthusiasm for the Conservatives.  As a result, it suggested
    that the Bloc could lose marginal seats where three-way races had
    split the federalist vote.

    ¶9.  (SBU) Comment: In the absence of a galvanizing issue in a
    federal election campaign, and the likelihood that seat changes will
    be minimal, Montreal contacts characterized the coming election
    campaign as "a bit of a side-show" and more likely to be an exercise
    in "clearing the air" than a debate that resonates with Quebecers.
    They expected that the key electoral battleground would be in
    neighboring seat-rich Ontario where a large number of swing ridings
    make the election outcome unpredictable.  However, Quebec voters
    have a history of confounding predictions -- including the
    Conservatives' unexpected gain of ten seats in the 2006 election --
    and much will depend on the election campaign itself and the
    performance of the party leaders.
    WILKINS

`