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### Viewing cable 08BUENOSAIRES170, ARGENTINA'S SPACE LAUNCH VEHICLE PROGRAM: THE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BUENOSAIRES170 | 2008-02-13 12:12 | 2011-04-24 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Buenos Aires
Appears in these articles: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1367868-eeuu-temio-un-plan-para-revivir-el-misil-condor

`

    VZCZCXYZ0005
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBU #0170/01 0441211
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 131211Z FEB 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0233
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6703
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000170

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    ISN FOR D. MAHLEY AND P. DURHAM
    OES/SAT FOR B. FORD
    CIA/WINPAC FOR J. CASKER

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018
    TAGS: MTCR KSCA PARM TSPL PREL MNUC AR
    SUBJECT: ARGENTINA'S SPACE LAUNCH VEHICLE PROGRAM: THE
     EMBASSY'S PERSPECTIVE

     REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 138 AND PREVIOUS

          ¶B. STATE 10771
          ¶C. BUENOS AIRES 00124 AND PREVIOUS

     Classified By: AMBASSADOR E. ANTHONY WAYNE, FOR REASONS 1.4
     (B) AND (D)

     -------
     Summary
     -------

     ¶1. (C) This cable provides the Embassy's recommendation for
     policy change regarding longstanding USG opposition toward
     Argentina's space launch vehicle (SLV) program.  We believe
     that opposition, based on Argentina's 1992 assurances that it
     would not develop a space launch vehicle ""for the foreseeable
     future,"" is no longer productive.  A better approach would be
     to switch to a neutral stance toward the program, while in
     the process securing agreement that Argentina maintain
     complete transparency by briefing and/or offering program
     access to experts of our choosing or to the Missile
     Technology Control Regime.  Such a step could be a cost-free
     way to remove a longstanding bilateral irritant.  End Summary.

     ------------------
     Why This Step Now?
     ------------------

     ¶2. (C) Ref (A) reported on a recent conversation with
     Argentine space agency (CONAE) Executive Director Dr. Conrad
     Varotto.  During that meeting, Varotto stressed that
     Argentina's political leadership continues to place great
     importance on Argentina's space launch vehicle (SLV) program,
     which the USG has opposed.  With Argentina unwilling to
     abandon the program, and with the understanding that
     interagency discussions regarding possible U.S. courses of
     action are currently ongoing, we hope to contribute to the
     successful resolution of this seeming dilemma with the
     recommendation in this cable.

     ------------------
     The Argentine Case
     ------------------

     ¶3. (C) Argentina offers a number of reasons why it does not
     consider itself bound by 1992 assurances to U.S. officials
     and to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) that it
     would foreswear development of a SLV.  Specifically, the GOA
     claims to have made a number of diplomatic representations
     arguinig for release from the commitment dating from 1999,
     and has since that time consistently expressed its
     disagreement with the idea that its pursuit of a ""peaceful""
     SLV should be limited.  The GOA is also proud of its
     non-proliferation record subsequent to the dismantling of the
     Condor program, a point Varotto stressed February 4 when he
     said: ""It is important that people in Washington understand
     something.  Those of us involved in sensitive programs --
     nuclear and other (sic) -- invented our own export control
     regime even before Argentina had any export control
     legislation.  You're not talking to enemies, but rather to
     promoters of export controls.""

     ¶4. (C) Varotto also claims that Argentina is working toward
     the eventual establishment of a regional space agency, a
     development he understands will be difficult to achieve but
     one that he purports to believe is inevitable.  A reg]m Bq,jb1\BQbignal
     Trafficking in Arms Regulations (ITAR), while the higher
     costs of other providers render their services inaccessible.
     Partnerships with launch providers have proven imperfect
     mechanisms, because although costs are reduced, Argentina has
     found on a number of occasions that the needs of more senior
     partners mean instruments important to Argentina are left

     behind.

     ------------
     A Trump Card
     ------------

     ¶5. (C) The GOA understands that solid arguments against all
     of the preceding points exist, but it believes it holds a
     trump card.  That is, the GOA believes that because it
     qualified its 1992 assurances to the USG and to the MTCR with
     the phrase ""for the foreseeable future,"" instead of more
     clearly foreswearing SLV development for all time, those
     assurances are no longer valid.  Argentina has seen eight
     different presidents since 1992, goes the argument, and it is
     not reasonable to demand policy consistency through such
     change and over almost sixteen years absent a more binding
     international agreement. (Comment: We find considerable merit
     in this argument.  End Comment.)

     -------------------
     Practical Realities
     -------------------

     ¶6. (C) Leaving the Argentine arguments aside, it is useful to
     examine our own ability to influence the GOA's position
     toward its SLV program.  High-level GOA officials --
     including the current foreign minister -- have publicly
     proclaimed the program to be a national priority.  GOA
     officials would find it difficult to backtrack from those
     statements.  Current president Cristina Fernandez de
     Kirchner, as well as her predecessor and husband Nestor
     Kirchner, have shown themselves to be extremely sensitive to
     perceived slights, and have often played the anti-American
     card in response to an act or statement seen as an
     encroachment upon Argentina's sovereign prerogatives (Ref C).
      Forcing the issue with the president would likely lead to an
     other-than-optimal outcome.  We also understand that any
     attempt to enlist a significant number of MTCR partners to
     join us in reinforcing our opposition would be unlikely to
     bear fruit.  We must therefore conclude -- and Varotto has
     told us as much -- that there is little the USG can do to
     convince Argentina to renounce its SLV program.

     --------------------------------------------- -------
     Our Recommendation: Making the Best of the Situation
     --------------------------------------------- -------

     ¶7. (C) Because we are not aware of any information that
     indicates that the Argentine SLV program represents a
     nonproliferation danger, and taking the factors above into
     account, we believe the best path to a mutually acceptable
     and final resolution to this longstanding irritant would be
     to release Argentina from its 1992 commitments.  As a
     condition, we could ask that Argentina brief its program and
     keep it open to the MTCR and/or to experts of our choosing, a
     step Varotto has indicated the GOA is willing to take
     (although Varotto also noted that Argentina's political
     leadership would probably only agree to unobtrusive
     briefings/inspections).  Turning Varotto's pledges of
     transparency into action is worth a concerted effort, in our
     view.

     ¶8. (C) Additionally, such a course of action would be
     construed by the GOA as a gesture of friendship, and would be
     seen as recognition and vindication of Argentina's strong
     anti-proliferation vocation since the demise of the Condor
     program.  Best of all, it would put this issue to bed at no
     cost, give us leverage to intervene if program developments
     give rise to proliferation concerns, and show that we are
     serious when we say that all states should be allowed to reap
     the benefits of space for peaceful purposes.
     WAYNE

`