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### Viewing cable 05OTTAWA663, CANADA: MISSILE DEFENSE DECISION CLEARS THE WAY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05OTTAWA663 | 2005-03-02 17:05 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000663

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA SNAR MCAP
    SUBJECT: CANADA: MISSILE DEFENSE DECISION CLEARS THE WAY
    FOR CONSENSUS AT LIBERAL PARTY CONVENTION

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Canada,s Liberal Party will hold its
    biennial convention in Ottawa from March 3 to 7.  It will be
    both a policy convention and a review of PM Martin,s
    leadership.  Martin is expected to handily survive the
    review, and with missile defense now out of the way, only the
    Same-Sex Marriage resolution is expected to provoke
    substantial debate.  A marijuana legalization item also made
    its way onto the bottom of the agenda, but is not expected to
    stir much controversy, and in fact beause it is so far down
    the agenda, may not even be discussed before time runs out.
    End Summary

    The Delegates
    -------------

    ¶2. (SBU) The governing Liberal Party of Canada will hold its
    biennial convention in Ottawa between March 3 and 7.  Select
    riding association members, Parliamentarians, and Ex-Officio
    members of the Liberal Party may attend the convention as
    delegates.  Riding associations can send fourteen delegates,
    but media reports suggest that many have had trouble filling
    their slots due to a lack of interest and the high cost.  A
    Liberal Party official said this week that 2,000 of 5,000
    eligible participants will attend the convention, and
    insisted this was a good number for a convention that is not
    electing a new leader.  Media sources, however, cite Liberal
    insiders as saying the party will be lucky to attract 1,500
    people, and some commentators suggest that because of the
    expected small turnout, debate will be muted and
    uninteresting.  Prime Minister Martin and Liberal Caucus
    Chair MP Andy Savoy are reportedly engaged in a campaign to
    persuade MPs to encourage active participation.

    The Leadership Review
    ---------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) One key piece of business will be a review of Prime
    Minister Paul Martin,s leadership.  Commentators believe
    that  elite, levels of the party have conspired to allow
    the PM to breeze through his first review by ensuring there
    are no viable alternatives.  National media have nonetheless
    suggested the names of potential leadership candidates, none
    of whom appear interested in interrupting Paul Martin,s term
    as Prime Minister by starting the kind of informal leadership
    campaign that Martin used to unseat Prime Minister Jean
    Chrtien.  Some media commentators take this free-pass
    leadership review as the reason why riding associations
    appear generally disinterested in the process.

    The Policy Element
    ------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) An ambitious policy agenda features 88 items, but
    the only policy items that are expected to draw notice are
    the Same-Sex Marriage resolution.  There was a growing sense
    that the convention would put Liberal Party divisions on
    display, which is undoubtedly the reason why PM Martin felt
    it necessary to get the missile defense issue off the table.
    The structure of the convention is still somewhat in flux,
    but it appears there will be a series of 12 workshops to
    discuss the 88 items, some of which will receive focus as
    Priority Resolutions.

    ¶5. (SBU) The resolution on same-sex marriage was co-sponsored
    by the Liberal Party,s Standing Committee on Policy
    Development, indicating that it came from high levels of the
    Liberal government and the Young Liberals of Canada.  There
    is still significant resistance to same-sex marriage in the
    Liberal caucus and the convention will be a rare opportunity
    for opponents of the plan to speak out against the
    legislation and garner some headlines before debate resumes
    in the House of Commons.

    ¶6. (SBU) The Alberta wing of the Liberal Party sponsored a
    call for the complete legalization and taxation of marijuana.
     National media reports that the University of Calgary Young
    Liberals forced this resolution through the provincial body.
    This resolution is not a priority item and is the last of
    five issues that the Justice and Constitutional Workshop must
    address in one and a half hours, so it is not likely that the
    resolution will pass and it may not even receive much
    attention.  It should be noted, however, that the leader of
    the Marijuana Party of Canada, Marc Boris St-Maurice,
    announced Monday that he would be quitting his party and
    joining the Liberal Party to attend the convention and will
    try to raise the profile of the marginalized resolution and
    marijuana bills before the house.

    ¶7. (SBU) Comment:  The missile defense debate was shaping up
    to be a divisive issue in this convention that would have
    highlighted the fissures in the party while possibly leading
    to an embarrassing vote against Canada,s joining the
    program.  And it didn,t help that the most serious opponents
    of the missile defense program are from the Quebec wing of
    the party where Martin needs to make inroads if the Liberals
    are to regain a majority government.  Thus Martin felt he had
    to put this issue to rest before the convention.  This leaves
    only the same-sex marriage issue to underscore the party,s
    divisions, the debate over which will be filled with tension,
    but manageable.  If well-handled, it could even reduce the
    &democratic deficit,8 one of Martin,s key campaign
    promises.  Though media commentary suggests a disconnect
    between Liberal Elites and the party grassroots on the
    question of the leadership review, at the policy level it
    appears that the grassroots are active in promoting their
    agendas.  End Comment
    Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

    CELLUCCI

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