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### Viewing cable 03OTTAWA1812, Canada's Uranium: A primer

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03OTTAWA1812 | 2003-06-26 18:06 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Ottawa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001812

    SIPDIS

    STATE for EB/ESC/IEC, WHA/CAN, NP/NE
    DEPT pass USTR (Chandler)

    USDOC For ITA/MAC - Office of NAFTA Affairs

    DOE for Int'l and Policy (Person), IE-141 (Deutsch) and BPA
    (Atkins)

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of International
    Programs (Rosales-Bush)

    DOE For Energy Information Administration

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EMIN ETRD ENRG KNNP CA
    SUBJECT: Canada's Uranium: A primer

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. Canada is the largest uranium producer in the world - in
    2002 production was 11,607 metric tonnes of uranium, about
    one-third of total world production.  Canada typically
    provides 20 to 30 percent of uranium used in the United
    States.  The two main players are Cameco, a Canadian-based
    publicly traded company and COGEMA, the mining arm of the
    international nuclear group, AREVA. Despite low uranium
    prices in the late 1990's and early 2000's, these mining
    firms have invested in new mines and plants, and the
    development of new high-grade deposits means that Canadian
    producers are well positioned to capitalize on future market
    opportunities.  With U.S. electric utilities looking to
    extend their existing plant operating licenses, increase
    ("uprate") their power output, and possibly build new
    nuclear plants, Canada's uranium deposits may become even
    more significant for U.S. energy interests in the coming
    years.  Concern does exist within the Canadian uranium
    mining industry, however, that low uranium prices will
    curtail exploration and could scuttle plans to bring new
    deposits fully on line.  End Summary.

    --------------------------------------
    CANADA'S URANIUM DEPOSITS & PRODUCTION
    --------------------------------------

    ¶2. Canada is the world's largest producer of uranium. In
    2002, production, at 13,689 metric tonnes (t) of uranium
    oxide concentrate (representing 11,607 t Uranium), was about
    a third of total world production. Its value was about C$
    600 million.  All of the active mines, as well as the vast
    reserves, are located in the Athabasca basin region in the
    northernmost quarter of the province of Saskatchewan.

    ¶3. Canada's low cost uranium reserves (Reasonably Assured
    Resources plus Estimated Additional Resources) are 515,000
    metric tonnes of uranium oxide (U3O8) (437,000 tonnes
    Uranium, 14 percent of world total).  (Note that Australia
    has approximately double the reserves of Canada.)

    ¶4. Some C$539 million (one C$ currently equals approximately
    US$0.74) was spent on uranium exploration in Canada from
    1986 to 1997 and this led to a sharp increase in recoverable
    resources. Despite depletion from mining, resources have
    further increased slightly since 1997.  Exploration
    expenditure in 1998 was C$60 million, then $49 million in
    1999 and 2000, mostly at established projects.

    ¶5. Australia's uranium reserves are the world's largest,
    with 28% of the world's total (estimated at about 750,000
    metric tonnes of uranium).  Australia is the world's second-
    largest producer of uranium, responsible for about 19% of
    total global production in 2002, with 6888 metric tones of
    uranium.  In 2002 the United States was the world's eighth
    ranked producer of uranium, producing 919 metric tonnes of
    uranium from mines (as opposed to use of HEU from former
    national military stockpiles).

    ¶6. Currently, Canada supplies 20 to 30 percent of uranium
    used in the United States - typically this is shipped to the
    United States as Uranium Hexaflouride, which is then
    enriched to become fuel for American light water reactors.

    -----------------
    THE MAJOR PLAYERS
    -----------------

    ¶7. Two producers account for over 90 percent of Canadian
    uranium production. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Cameco is
    the largest producer in the world with 5479 metric tonnes of
    uranium produced in Canada in 2002.  Cameco was created in
    1988 by the merger of two government corporations, the
    Saskatchewan Mining Development Corporation and El Dorado
    Nuclear Limited.  Cameco is now fully owned by private
    investors after the government of Saskatchewan sold its 10
    percent share in 2002.  The company's 56 million shares are
    traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (symbol - CCO) and the
    New York Stock Exchange (symbol - CCJ).  Cameco also
    operates uranium mines in Wyoming and Nebraska.  The company
    produces nuclear electricity as an owner of, and the sole
    fuel supplier to, Bruce Power's operating nuclear reactors
    in Ontario (four currently operating, two soon to re-start).

    ¶8. Uranium ore mined by Cameco in Saskatchewan is milled
    into "yellowcake" (a uranium oxide concentrate) at
    facilities also located in northern Saskatchewan.  The
    milled "yellowcake" is then shipped to Cameco's refining
    plant at Blind River, Ontario and conversion plant at Port
    Hope, Ontario for processing into uranium dioxide for use as
    fuel in the Canadian built heavy-water "CANDU" reactors
    located in Canada, Korea, China, and elsewhere. The Port
    Hope facility also produces uranium hexafluoride which is
    shipped to the United States and elsewhere for enrichment
    into fuel for light-water reactors.  The facility at Port
    Hope has a capacity to convert 12,500 metric tonnes of
    uranium per year into uranium hexaflouride.

    ¶9.   COGEMA Resources Incorporated (CRI) is a wholly owned
    subsidiary of Paris-based COGEMA, itself wholly owned by the
    international nuclear industrial group, AREVA.  CRI is the
    second largest producer of uranium in Canada, with 5425
    metric tonnes of uranium produced in 2002. CRI's activities
    in Canada are limited to mining and milling uranium into
    yellowcake; CRI has no conversion facilities in Canada, but
    exports yellowcake for conversion and enrichment (to France
    and the United States).  CRI's principal mines are McClean
    Lake, and its part ownership in the mines at Cigar Lake and
    McArthur River, all in Saskatchewan.

    ---------------------------------------
    NEW HIGH GRADE MINES STARING TO PRODUCE
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶10.  Canada is in the midst of a transition from second-
    generation uranium mines (started 1975-83) to new high-grade
    ones, all in northwestern Saskatchewan.  In 1999-2000, mines
    at McArthur River and McClean Lake commenced production,
    producing some 3700 metric tonnes of uranium and 2300 tonnes
    of uranium respectively.  Three more mines (Cigar Lake,
    Midwest and Dawn Lake) are planned.  The Cigar Lake mine is
    closest to opening and is expected to produce 7000 metric
    tonnes of uranium annually once it is on line, around 2006.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING URANIUM INDUSTRY
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶11.  Production at Cameco's McArthur River mine, said to be
    the world's largest, was temporarily suspended in April 2003
    due to underground flooding.  Cameco anticipates that
    production at McArthur River will resume in July 2003.  The
    company forecasts that 2003 net earnings will decline by $4
    to $5 million for every month the mine remains inoperable.
    However, Cameco expects to fully deliver on its 2003 sales
    contracts through its inventory and other supply sources.

    ¶12.  The first labor dispute in the history of Canada's
    uranium mining industry ended after a brief, five-day work
    stoppage in June 2003.  Unionized workers at CRI demanded
    wage increases to be on par with their counterparts at
    Cameco.  Though still below Cameco pay levels, CRI workers
    negotiated a 10.5 percent increase in wages over a three-
    year term.  The short stoppage is not expected to affect
    CRI's production forecasts.

    ¶13.  CRI is currently appealing a September 2002 Canadian
    Federal Court ruling that cancelled their 1999 operating
    license for the McClean Lake project on the grounds that CRI
    had not conducted an adequate environmental review under the
    Canadian Environmental Assessment Act.  In November 2002,
    the Federal Court of Appeal granted a stay of the previous
    decision while the case is appealed.  Currently, the McClean
    Lake mine is operating under a four-year operating license
    issued in 2001 that increased the mine's production capacity
    up to 3600 metric tonnes of U3O8 per year.  A shutdown of
    the McClean Lake mine would eliminate a significant portion
    of CRI's current uranium production.

    --------------------------------------------- ---------
    SECURITY OF URANIUM SUPPLY WILL REQUIRE PRICE INCREASE
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶14.  It is not a sure bet, however, that Cigar Lake, Midwest
    and Dawn lake will come on stream as scheduled - or that
    other new resources will be developed.  During a speech to
    investors in March 2003, the CEO of Cameco, Gerald Grandey,
    noted that forecast uranium production will fall short of
    the uranium market's requirements by 300 million pounds over
    the next 10 years.  Although secondary sources (such as
    inventory from ex-military stockpiles) do provide a
    significant amount of uranium for fuel, this contribution,
    according to uranium industry advocates, is still not
    sufficient to make up the shorfall in uranium supply.
    Grandey's analysis is that the capital investment needed to
    cover the deficit "will require higher sustained prices" and
    that he is "convinced it is a case of when, not if, prices
    improve."  Currently, the spot price of uranium is
    recovering from an historic low of US$7 per pound in 2000 to
    almost US$11 per pound currently (though far from the high-
    water marks of US$16 per pound in 1988 and 1996).

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶15. Canada's high-grade uranium deposits in northern
    Saskatchewan offer a secure fuel supply for American nuclear
    power plants.  To ensure that known deposits are brought to
    production, and to encourage further exploration will,
    however, require an increase in the price of uranium,
    according to industry analysts.  GoC officials and industry
    contacts remain interested in maintaining a close dialogue
    with USG in order to address important uranium market issues
    and presumably to encourage uranium industry investment in
    mines and exploration.

    Cellucci

`