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### Viewing cable 08OTTAWA1027, CONSERVATIVES SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS FALL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08OTTAWA1027 | 2008-07-31 21:09 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    VZCZCXRO0702
    PP RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
    DE RUEHOT #1027/01 2132133
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 312133Z JUL 08
    FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8272
    INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001027

    SENSITIVE

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV CA
    SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS FALL

    Ref: A.  OTTAWA 1006
    -    B.  OTTAWA 886
    -    C.  OTTAWA 866

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Over the past two months, the Conservative Party
    has fine-tuned the Cabinet, shaken up its managerial team, and
    revamped communications strategy to re-group ahead of the return of
    Parliament in mid-September.  The new look was on display at the
    Conservative caucus summer policy retreat in Levis, Quebec on July
    30 and 31, notably by allowing Cabinet ministers much greater
    inter-play with the media.  These changes appear part of renewed
    efforts to re-position the party for the final phase of this
    minority government, to move forward on its policy agenda, and to
    ready itself for a possible fall 2008 federal election.  Although
    the main Conservative theme is that its focus remains on governing,
    Prime Minister Harper on July 30 again challenged Liberal leader
    Dion to "fish or cut bait" -- i.e., acquiesce in the Conservative
    agenda again this fall or face an election.  End summary

    SETTING THE PARTY LINE
    ----------------------
    ¶2. (U) Conservative members of Parliament and other key party
    figures gathered in Levis, Quebec on July 30 and 31 for the annual
    summer caucus retreat.  Ministers publicly reiterated that the
    government is "on track" and will continue to advance its agenda to
    control spending, to provide prudent economic management, and to
    crack down on crime, while the party's priority is "governing."

    ¶3.  (SBU)  The media welcomed a new Conservative approach to public
    relations in this year's caucus with the unusual access to key
    Ministers, a sharp contrast with the earlier tightly controlled
    events.  Defence Minister Peter MacKay briefed reporters on
    Afghanistan, insisting that NATO must send more troops to RC-South,
    describing the region as the "flashpoint" of the mission and
    insisting that Canada will not relent in pressing its partners to
    send more personnel.  Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day and
    Justice Minister Rob Nicholson praised the party's tough-on-crime
    agenda and pledged to pursue other new crime bills this fall,
    including on juvenile justice.  Finance Minister Jim Flaherty
    insisted that Conservative tax measures would add C$21 billion in
    "structural" economic stimulus to the economy this year, and held
    out the prospect of future tax reductions (not actual cuts) to
    assist Canadians with the rapid rise in the cost of living.  Senior
    Quebec minister Lawrence Cannon indicated that the government would
    extend greater economic autonomy to the provinces, such as offering
    a green light to a new labor mobility agreement between Quebec and
    France.

    NEW BLOOD
    ---------

    ¶4. (SBU) The apparent new tactics follow a June Cabinet reshuffle
    (ref c) and the more recent shakeup of the managerial team in the
    Prime Minister's Office (PMO).  New Chief of Staff Guy Giorno took
    up his duties on July 1, succeeding long-term Harper loyalist Ian
    Brodie, who also helped plan the recent reorganization.  Giorno, a
    Toronto lawyer and former top aide to Conservative then-Ontario
    premier Mike Harris in the late 1990s, has a reputation as a smart,
    aggressive, and highly partisan political operator.  He moved
    swiftly to streamline reporting structures, to reduce the number of
    deputy chiefs of staff from three to one, and to replace some key
    personnel.  According to one senior PMO official, upon return
    recently from vacation, he found half of his colleagues fired or
    reassigned.

    ¶5.  (SBU)  PM Harper also replaced his highly unpopular (with
    reporters, at least) Director of Communications, Sandra Bucker, with
    Kory Teneycke, the former director of the Conservative Resource
    Group.  Teneycke has garnered most of the credit for the more open
    QGroup.  Teneycke has garnered most of the credit for the more open
    caucus.  Pundits expect Teneycke and Giorno to do the heavy lifting
    to succeed in the immediate goal of winning the next federal
    election -- perhaps as early as fall 2008 but no later than October
    2009 -- as well as the longer-term objective of effecting a durable
    transformation of Canadian politics.

    READY - OR NOT?
    ---------------

    ¶6.  (SBU)  In a speech that won widespread coverage nationally (but
    almost none in Quebec), PM Harper publicly called upon Official
    Opposition Leader Stephane Dion to "fish or cut bait" by either
    acquiescing in the Conservative Parliamentary agenda again this fall
    or by bringing the government down in an early confidence vote and
    then facing the electorate this fall.  The key test for both parties
    will their performances in the September 8 by-elections in Quebec
    and Ontario (ref a).  Dion continues to send mixed messages on his
    party's intentions.  He recently insisted in an interview that "I
    want to have elections yesterday," but he has also again emphasized
    that he will also choose a "good time" for an election, which might
    be any time "between the fall and October 2009."  PM Harper again
    tweaked Dion on July 31 for showing "poor judgment" in offering the

    OTTAWA 00001027  002 OF 002

    Liberals' carbon tax ("Green Shift") and vaguely warned the Liberals
    not to block the government's agenda this fall.

    ¶7. (SBU) Comment:  The Liberals remain underfunded and poorly
    organized, while most Liberal candidates in the 2006 leadership race
    -- including Dion -- have not even yet repaid their debts.  The
    Conservatives have the more coherent policy agenda and the fatter
    bank account, but, having already accomplished most of their major
    agenda items (ref b), have few dramatic legislative achievements
    left for the upcoming parliamentary session, which will begin on
    September 15.  The shake-up within the PMO likely reflects the
    Conservatives' assessment that the government may well remain until
    the obligatory election date of October 19, 2009, under the
    assumption that -- somewhat to the Conservatives' chagrin -- the
    Liberals will continue not to call their bluff.
    WILKINS

`