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### Viewing cable 09HELSINKI45, FINLAND: GOVERNMENT UNVEILS 2 BILLION EURO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09HELSINKI45 | 2009-02-06 14:02 | 2011-04-24 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Helsinki

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHHE #0045/01 0371406
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 061406Z FEB 09
    FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4793
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    INFO RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE

` `

    UNCLAS HELSINKI 000045

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN FI PREL
    SUBJECT: FINLAND:  GOVERNMENT UNVEILS 2 BILLION EURO
    STIMULUS PACKAGE

    ¶1.  Summary:  The Government of Finland (GOF) agreed on a
    stimulus package January 30 which is expected to have an
    overall impact of EUR 2 billion.  The package was presented
    to parliament on February 3 as part of an overall
    supplementary budget request, the primary objective of which
    is to promote employment by making investments in transport
    infrastructure, construction, education and research.
    Additionally, the package seeks to lower companies' labor
    costs by removing the national pension contribution paid by
    employers. GOF Finance Ministry officials told econoff
    February 4 that while the package was solid, Finland will
    carefully monitor the amount of debt needed to pay for the
    stimulus.  Sami Ylaoutinen, Director of the Stability Unit at
    the Finance Ministry, underscored to econoff the GOF's
    interest in crafting a responsible stimulus that would not
    risk putting the long-term sustainability of public finances
    in jeopardy, given the impending decline in the working-age
    population that will be responsible for paying off the larger
    debt.

    ¶2.  Politically, each of the four parties in the current
    coalition government is able to claim credit for various
    provisions.  The Swedish People's Party, for example, pushed
    for EUR 30 million for the refurbishment of the Swedish
    Theater in Helsinki.  The deficit created in the public
    finances due to the abolition of the social insurance
    contribution will be mainly financed by increasing energy and
    environmental taxes for industry and commerce, a key demand
    of the Green Party.  The rise in popularity of the National
    Coalition Party has led the ruling Center Party to to make
    the occasional dig at the popular NCP Finance Minister Jyrki
    Katainen, who has been rated by the Financial Times as the
    most effective Finance Minister in Europe.  End Summary.

    Finnish Economic Situation Deteriorating Rapidly, But Remains
    Sound
    --------------------------------------------- -----------------

    ¶3.  In Finland, the impact of the economic downturn is most
    acutely felt in central government finances.  The GOF Finance
    Ministry predicts that the National Accounts deficit will be
    -2.3 GDP in 2009 and local government finances will also slip
    into deficit this year.  The budget surplus that has made
    Finland the envy of Europe will melt away in 2009 and with
    the supplementary budget, Finland will face a -0.4 percent
    deficit.  Public debt, which in 2008 stood at the
    comparatively low level of 33 percent of GDP is also expected
    to rise sharply in 2009 and government forecasters predict
    that the public debt to GDP ratio will climb by at least 5
    percentage points to 38 percent.  (One risk scenario posits a
    rise to 60% in the next four years if there is no change in
    the economic situation.)

    Government Agrees on Stimulus Measures
    --------------------------------------

    ¶4.  The stimulus package adopted by the Finnish government on
    January 30 will weaken the balance of central government
    finances by EUR 912 million in 2009.  Added to measures taken
    separately to boost financial markets, the total impact of
    the stimulus measure amounts to roughly 1.7 percent of GDP.
    In addition to the investments noted in para 1, the package
    includes provisions to lower labor costs by removing the
    national pension contribution paid by employers.  This
    reduction is intended to be permanent.  Finance Minister
    Katainen has stated publicly that since Finland is such a
    relatively small economy, whatever it does will not change
    the global economic situation.  According to a press release,
    through this packgage the government hopes to "minimize the
    number of people who, as a result of the international
    economic downturn, have become affected by cyclical
    unemployment, and to carry them over the hard times."  Over
    the next month, Parliament will debate the stimulus package,
    but since the government has endorsed it, parliament is
    expected to pass it with only minor changes.

    Politics and Economics
    ----------------------

    ¶5.  The Finnish government justifiably prides itself on a
    collaborative approach to government decisionmaking.
    According to Ylaoutinen, given the reality of the economic
    downturn, the government was under pressure to make the
    package appear generous.  In a recent survey, the Center
    Party of Prime Minister Vanhanen polled an unprecedented 5
    percentage points below the conservative National Coalition
    Party (NCP).  Fighting for his party and struggling to
    demonstrate leadership, in mid-January PM Vanhanen proposed
    the initiation of a massive decade-long investment program,
    worth tens of billions of euros.  Saying that he was

    "disappointed" with unbridled economic liberalism, Vanhanen
    said that the government needs to assume a stronger role
    under all circumstances, not just crises.  Although he
    admitted that his proposal was "just a loose vision", its
    timing and scope was intended to contrast sharply with that
    presented by NCP Finance Minister Katainen, who in December
    2008  called for a 100 million euro stimulus package, a
    measure that in comparison with Vanhanen's proposal, seems
    already outdated. The opposition Social Democrat Party (SDP)
    has criticized the government (and the current stimulus
    package) for doing too little, too late, but it has been
    unable to put forward viable alternatives or translate its
    criticism into increased support.

    ¶6.  At the forefront of all politicians' minds is the Finnish
    experience in the early 1990s when a severe recession
    crippled the economy and destroyed families.  Against this
    backdrop, the supplementary budget was quietly developed
    under the leadership of Ministry of Finance State Secretary
    Raimo Sailas who consulted with the Prime Minister and with
    all coalition parties.  Despite the rising popularity of the
    junior coalition partner NCP, the process ran smoothly and
    swiftly.  The consensus is that all governing coalition
    partners got something.

    BUTLER

`