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### Viewing cable 09LAGOS74, NIGERIA: IJAW YOUTHS "TAKE BACK THE STRUGGLE" AT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09LAGOS74 | 2009-02-19 06:06 | 2011-04-06 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Lagos

`

    VZCZCXRO6277
    OO RUEHPA
    DE RUEHOS #0074/01 0500605
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 190605Z FEB 09
    FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0508
    INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
    RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0128
    RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH AFB UK
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEWMFD/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000074

    SIPDIS

    STATE PASS NSC FOR BOBBY PITTMAN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM EPET ECON KDEM NI
    SUBJECT: NIGERIA: IJAW YOUTHS "TAKE BACK THE STRUGGLE" AT
    YENAGOA MEETING

    REF: A. REF: LAGOS 066
         ¶B. 08 LAGOS 479
         ¶C. 08 LAGOS 475
         ¶D. 08 LAGOS 449
         ¶E. 08 LAGOS 386
         ¶F. 08 LAGOS 385
         ¶G. 08 LAGOS 367
         ¶H. 08 LAGOS 328
         ¶I. 08 LAGOS 313

    Classified By: Consul General Donna M. Blair for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

    ¶1. (U) Summary: Over 3,000 Ijaw youths, led by Dimieri von
    Kemedi and other drafters of the Kaiama Declaration, met in
    Yenagoa, the capital of Bayelsa State on February 6 to "take
    back the struggle" for solutions to the problems of the Niger
    Delta.  According to Kemedi, the youths issued a strong
    communique (posted on the Ijaw Youth Council Website
    www.iycworldwide.org) stating that any Ijaw youth who failed
    to depart the militant camps within three months would be
    considered a criminal.  The Federal Government has not
    responded to a proposal, submitted by Bayelsa State five
    months ago, to disarm the militants (who Kemedi defined as
    youths with weapons) and to grant them amnesty.  In light of
    the Federal Government's failure to act, Bayelsa State will
    assist the youths by providing a program reorienting them to
    life in civil society and providing them with jobs; because
    there is no guarantee that the security agencies will not
    arrest militant youths attending the programs, youths who
    have never taken up arms will also participate.  Like Delta
    State, which has enjoyed an extended period without conflict,
    Bayelsa State appears to have established a workable proxy
    for amnesty that will allow militants to abandon criminality
    and become gainfully employed.  It remains to be seen whether
    the efforts of state governments, in the absence of Federal
    Government commitment to amnesty, a viable program of
    disarmament for militant youths and demilitarization of the
    Niger Delta via withdrawal of the JTF, will be sufficient to
    bring peace to the Niger Delta.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (SBU) Over 3,000 Ijaw youths from every state in the
    South-South gathered in Yenagoa, capital of Bayelsa State on
    February 6, to "take back the struggle" for solutions to the
    problems of the Niger Delta, Dimieri Von Kemedi, Director of
    the Bayelsa State Office of eGovernance and Public
    Procurement, told Pol-Econ Chief on February 7.  Organizers
    of the meeting included Kemedi, Felix Tuodolo and other Ijaw
    youths who drafted the Kaiama Declaration in 1998, many of
    whom he had not seen in some time, Kemedi said.  In
    attendance for the opening ceremony were representatives of
    the Niger Delta Ministry, and Bayelsa State Governor Timipre
    Silva, who gave the opening speech, according to Kemedi.
    (Note: A February 4 article about the planned conference in
    the Guardian, listed, in addition to Tuodolo, other key
    figures in the Kaiama Declaration: T.K. Ogoriba, Asari
    Dokubo, Oynifie Jonjon, Dan Ekpebide, Were Digifa, Kingsly
    Kuku, Udengs Eradiri, Mike Wemebowei, Ebelo Jeremiah, Maxwell
    Oko, Sam Ogbuku, Demieri Von Kemedi, Famous Daunemigha,
    Patterson Ogun, and Jude Tabai.  A February 3 article in the
    Business Times said Asari Dokubo, at a rally in Buguma,
    Rivers State, urged Kalabari youths to give up violence,
    kidnapping and other criminal acts, and asserted that neither
    the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF), which he
    heads, nor the Ijaw Youth Council, engage in criminal
    activities.  End Note)

    Ijaw Youths To Quit Camps
    -------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Kemedi said that he was pleased that the Ijaw youths
    agreed on the issues and ratified the strong language of the
    communique issued at the conclusion of the conference.  Ijaw
    youths will leave the camps within three months, Kemedi said,
    and anyone found within the camps after the close of the
    three month period will be considered a criminal.  However,
    these youths have guns ("the generally understood meaning of
    militant", Kemedi said), and will need a way to dispose of
    them.  Five months ago, Bayelsa State presented the Federal
    Government with a fully articulated plan for disarming the

    LAGOS 00000074  002 OF 003

    youths, but the Federal Government has not responded.  In the
    absence of action by the Federal Government, Bayelsa State
    will take the initiative to help the youths who walk away
    from the camps, he said.  The State is not able to undertake
    a formal disarmament program, which can only be conducted by
    the Federal Government, according to Kemedi.  Nonetheless,
    Bayelsa State has prepared a program through which religious
    leaders, trained in 2008 by an NGO called ALPHA from the UK,
    will work with the youths to help them to reorient themselves
    to life outside the camps. (Ref E)  Without assurances from
    the Federal government on amnesty, however, there is no
    guarantee that the state security agencies will not arrest
    youths as they go through the program.  As a result, Bayelsa
    State plans to include both youths coming out of the camps
    and others who have never been in the camps in each training,
    making it more difficult for the security services to
    identify former militants, Kemedi said.

    "Even I Had a Hard Time Sorting Out MEND"
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶4. (C)  In a conversation during Poloffs February 4 visit to
    Yenagoa, Kemedi said that even people like himself, "who
    should have known what was going on", had had a difficult
    time sorting out just who was in the Movement for the
    Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND).  Now he knows that
    MEND is just an email address, Kemedi said, and he believes
    that erstwhile MEND spokeserson Jomo Gbomo is Henry Okah, a
    professional arms dealer, whose sole purpose was to create an
    atmosphere conducive to his business, and who seduced others
    by offering them a credit line with which to buy arms.
    (Note:  Okah is currently in jail and suffering from kidney
    ailments.  He also took up arms dealing as part of his
    overall activities with MEND.  End Note)  With Okah in jail,
    it appears "Jomo Gbomo's" words are not as dramatic, nor as
    well-chosen as in the past.  Moreover, whereas in the past
    Jomo Gbomo used to predict events, which would then take
    place, now the person using that name is able only to issue
    pronouncements after events occur, Kemedi said.  (note:  We
    do not not know if Kemedi's prediction that the Jomo Gbomo
    was Okah is correct and if this is correct, we do not know if
    one or several people have taken his place as the reported
    MEND spokesperson.  End Note)

    Claims No Attacks on Oil in Bayelsa Since 2007
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶5.  (C)  In the February 4 conversation, Kemedi said that, to
    his knowledge, there have been no attacks, with the exception
    of the attack on Bonga, on oil facilities by militants in
    Bayelsa since 2007.  This was the result of what Kemedi
    called "a very untidy process".  (Comment: Kemedi is likely
    referring to payments by Bayelsa Governor Silva to militant
    leaders in the state. (Ref F) End Comment)  Attacks on oil
    installations in Rivers State are down as well, he said,
    because the emphasis has shifted to kidnappings for ransom
    (by militants and criminals), and to offshore piracy.  On
    kidnapping, Kemedi said, the views of the people in the
    villages have changed.  In the past, they helped the
    militants by hiding their kidnapping victims within the
    villages; they no longer do that, and instead cooperate with
    the security agencies because they see the kidnappings as a
    threat to the community.  Because attitudes have changed, the
    militants are unable to recruit as easily as they did before.

    ¶6.  (C)  However, the militants are only half of the problem
    in the Niger Delta;  the other half is the military, he said.
     The military wants to remain in the Niger Delta because they
    profit enormously from money charged for escorting illegally
    bunkered crude and from money extorted in the name of
    providing security on the roads.  The Joint Task Force (JTF)
    foot soldiers are not the only ones who profit; the
    Commissioner of Police, the Director of the State Security
    Service, the military all line up at the Governor's door
    asking for "favors", Kemedi said.

    FG "Not Interested" In Resolving Niger Delta Crisis
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    LAGOS 00000074  003 OF 003

    ¶7.  (C)  The Federal Government is not interested in
    resolving the crisis in the Niger Delta; there are too many
    powerful people benefiting from the crisis to have it end,
    Kemedi said.  There is no money in the budget to develop the
    Niger Delta.  No effort has been made to address the problem
    of illegal bunkering; the ships that come in to pick up the
    crude are not small, and could easily be identified and dealt
    with if the Federal Government wanted to do so, Kemedi said.
    In response to the report of the Technical Committee on the
    Niger Delta, the Federal Government has set up yet another
    committee to report on the report.  This is why the
    South-South itself must do everything in its power to bring
    an end to the crisis, Kemedi said.

    States Find Ways Around FG Failure on Amnesty
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶8.  (C)  As a result, the states will find a way around the
    question of amnesty, which only the Federal Government can
    grant.  What the states can control is employment, he said.
    Once the states create employment opportunities, militants
    and non-militants alike will be able to take advantage of
    them.  Kemedi himself says he is no longer interested in the
    percent of derivation that goes to the states.  Bayelsa State
    has done a study that shows that the state has the potential
    to earn as much revenue from shrimp and fisheries projects as
    it does from oil, Kemedi noted.  Bayelsa is sending 50 youths
    to Denmark for seamanship training, and has purchased a
    number of Danish ships which will be shipped to Bayelsa to
    help create employment.

    ¶9.  (C) Comment: That it took Kemedi, who with hindsight says
    he "ought to have known", let alone the Ijaw youths in the
    creeks, time to figure out how they had been misled and
    manipulated is not surprising; television and internet access
    is available only in Bayelsa's larger towns, and cellphone
    access is intermittent at best, especially in the destitute
    riverine villages.  Notwithstanding, they have had it figured
    out for some time; we have reported since August 2008 that
    the militants were ready to lay down their arms, and the
    Bayelsa State proposal went in to the Federal Government
    months ago, according to Kemedi.  The Federal Government's
    failure to act, like its failure to develop the area
    economically, and its failure to interdict the ships that
    carry stolen crude, lends credence to the contention that the
    Federal Government does not want to solve a problem from
    which many high level people benefit.

    ¶10.  (C) Comment Continued:  The Federal Government's failure
    to respond on the issue of amnesty has forced Bayelsa State
    to contrive a proxy for amnesty that allows militant youths
    (by Kemedi's definition, "youths with guns") to leave the
    camps, reorient themselves to a life in civil society and,
    alongside youths who have never taken up arms, begin one of
    the new jobs the state is creating for them.  Delta State has
    had a similar proxy for amnesty in operation for some time.
    Militant youths have jobs patrolling the creeks as part of
    the Delta Waterways Commission, or in one of the projects or
    local offices established by the Delta State Oil Producing
    Areas Commission (DESOPADEC) (Ref A).  Job creation, coupled
    with the election of an Ijaw local government chairman for a
    Warri local government area, has led to a comparatively
    peaceful period in Delta State.  It remains to be seen
    whether the efforts of state governments, in the absence of
    Federal Government commitment to amnesty, a viable program of
    disarmament for militant youths and demilitarization of the
    Niger Delta via withdrawal of the JTF, will be sufficient to
    bring peace to the Niger Delta.  In Ambassador's February 10
    meeting with the new Niger Delta Minister, it appears
    unlikely that the Federal Government is getting its act
    together to better address Niger Delta issues anytime soon.
    End Comment.

    BLAIR

`