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### Viewing cable 09PANAMA357, PANAMA: MARTINELLI WINS BIG

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09PANAMA357 | 2009-05-05 13:01 | 2011-04-11 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0001
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #0357/01 1251316
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    R 051316Z MAY 09
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3350
    INFO RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUCNFB/FBI WASHINGTON DC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
    RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000357

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
    SUBJECT: PANAMA:  MARTINELLI WINS BIG

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR BARBARA J. STEPHENSON.  REASONS:  1.4 (D).

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) The opposition's Alliance for Change presidential
    candidate Ricardo Martinelli defeated governing Revolutionary
    Democratic Party (PRD) candidate by over twenty points and
    more than 300,000 votes on May 3.  Martinelli also appears to
    have wrested gained control of the 71-seat National Assembly
    from the PRD as his alliance is likely to win at least 37
    seats.  Martinelli called for all Panamanians to come
    together to work for the change on which he camapign.
    Herrera took responsibility for her loss and promised to lead
    the opposition.  Torrijos congratulated Martinelli on this
    victory and announced they would meet on May 5 to begin the
    transition.  Several seasoned PRD veterans -- including Pedro
    Miguel Gonzalez, who is under federal indictment in
    connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S. serviceman -- lost
    their National Assembly seats.  Coming from behind, the
    opposition's Bosco Vallarino defeated the PRD's Bobby
    Velasquez to win the race for Mayor of Panama City, the
    country's second most important elected office.  Embassy
    observers, as well as Organization of American States (OAS)
    observers and domestic observation missions.  Martinelli will
    now face considerable challenge getting his administration up
    and running.

    ----------------------
    Big Win for Martinelli
    ----------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Alliance for Change presidential candidate Ricardo
    Martinelli defeated governing Revoltionary Democratic Party
    (PRD) presidential candidate Balbina Herrera in a landslide
    on May 3.  As of 11:00 pm on May 3, Panama's Electoral
    Tribunal (TE) reported that Martinelli had secured 60 percent
    fo the vote, and Herrera got 37 percent.  Sinc the 1989
    restoration of democracy, Martinelli is not only the first
    candidate to win by more than 50 percent of the vote but also
    the candidate to win by the largest margin (23 points).
    Herrera acknowledged her defeat in a short address at PRD
    headquarters shortly after the TE magistrates called
    Martinelli to inform him of his victory.  Martinelli then
    made remarks to his supporters.  In a brief televised
    statement, President Martin Torrijos congratulated Martinelli
    on his victory and said that he would meet with Martinelli on
    May 5 to begin the transition.  Martinelli will be
    inaugurated on July 1.

    ¶3. (SBU)  According to Panama City television broadcaster
    Telemetro on the morning of May 4, the unofficial results,
    reflecting unofficial reporting from 92.41 percent of the
    voting tables, were:

    Candidate:                Percent:            Votes:
    ----------                --------            ------
    Ricardo Martinelli        60.31               886,819
    Balbina Herrera           37.34               549,002
    Guillermo Endara           2.35                34,551
    Blank ballots              1.17                17,268
    Spoiled ballots            1.90                27,923

    Telemetro reported that 68.61 percent of voters or a total of
    1,515,623 voters cast their ballots.  Panama City leading
    daily La Prensa reported on May 4 that Martinelli's
    Democratic Change (CD) brought in 54 percent of the
    coalition's total votes while alliance partners the
    Panamenista Party acounted for 30.5 percent, the Movement of
    Liberal Republican Nationals (MOLIRENA) brought in 9.8
    percent; and Patriotic Union (UP) delivered 5.5 percent of
    the total.  Post will report final official results SEPTEL.

    --------------------------------------------- ------
    Martinelli:  Victory for "all the people of Panama"
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶4. (SBU) In a short victory speech to supporters on the
    evening of May 3, Martinelli said that his victory was a
    victory "of all the people of Panama."  He called "on all
    those who opposed us, who are also Panamanians" to join him
    to "begin a new day, a day of change."  Echoing calls made
    during the closing weeks of his campaign, Martinelli said,
    "We need to put our best minds, independents, the best PRD
    members because they have very good people too, the best
    members of this alliance, and all Panamanians" to the
    challenge of changing Panama.  Concluding his remarks, he
    said, "We need all of you to make this change that Panama
    demands and wants to come true."

    ¶5. (SBU) In impromptu remarks to the press on May 4,
    Martinelli made news by giving his first indications
    regarding cabinet and other high-level appointments:

    -- Demetrio "Jimmy" Papadimitriu, his closest campaign
    advisor, would serve as Minister of the Presidency;
    -- Romulo de Roux would be Minister of Canal Affairs;
    -- Giselle de Calcagno, who broke with the PRD to support
    Martinelli, would remain at the helm of the Authority for
    Medium, Small, and Micro Enterprises (AMPYME);
    -- former FM in the Moscoso Administration Jaime Aleman would
    be Panama's Ambassador to the U.S.; and
    -- Gustavo Perez, Jr. would be named the Director of the
    Panamanian National Police (PNP).

    Additionally, he said he would offer morning television talk
    show host Lucy Molinar the Ministry of Education.  Regarding
    the U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreement, Martinelli simply
    noted, "We need to speak with the U.S. Ambassador."

    ----------------------------
    Balbina:  "I am responsible"
    ----------------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU) "The Panamanian people are sovereign, and I will
    respect their decision,"  Herrera stated on the evening of
    May 3 in making her concession speech that was marked
    primarily by her expressions of gratitude for her supporters
    and calls for the party to continue to fight for a better
    Panama.  Responding to questions after her concession,
    Herrera said, "I am the only one responsible (for my
    electoral loss), I am the leader, I am the candidate.  I will
    not blame anyone else.  I am the candidate, and I assume
    responsibility for this campaign."  Indirectly answering
    former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares assertion
    that the PRD's National Executive Committee (CEN), of which
    Herrera is president, should resign, Herrera said, "No, we
    will continue.  This executive committee was elected for five
    years, and we will respect that decision.  Those who think
    that there will be changes in the party's leadership are
    mistaken."

    -----------------------------
    National Assembly Projections
    -----------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) Early unofficial projections broadcast by RPC radio
    on May 4 indicated that the four-party Alliance for Change
    would win control of the National Assembly, though only by a
    slim margin.  RPC reported that, the Alliance for Change
    would win at least 37 seats with the Panamenistas winning 19
    seats, CD 12, UP 4, and MOLIRENA 2.  The same radio
    broadcast, projected that the PRD would win 21 seats and its
    alliance partner, the Popular Party (PP), 1 seat while former
    President Endara's Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) party
    was projected to win 1 seat.  Independents were projected to
    win 2 seats.  These projections only accounted for 62 of the
    71 seats in the National Assembly, however, as 8 other seats
    remained to be determined.

    ¶8. (SBU) Several PRD incumbents lost their seats, including
    most notably Pedro Miguel Gonzalez who is under U.S. federal
    indictment in connection with the 1992 murder of a U.S.
    serviceman in Panama. Additionally, current PRD National
    Assembly President Raul Rodriguez and Majority Leader Leandro
    Avila also lost re-election as did former National Assembly
    President Jerry Wilson.  Torrijos Second VP Arosemena --
    essentially the standard bearer for the PRD's minor alliance
    partner, the Popular Party -- failed to win a seat.

    -------------------
    Major Mayoral Races
    -------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) In the hotly contested Panama City Mayoral race,
    opposition candidate Bosco Vallarino appears to have come
    from behind to defeat PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez by a
    narrow but comfortable margin.  With 1,004 of 1,162 voting
    tables reporting, CD/Panamenista/MOLIRENA candidate Bosco
    Vallarino held a comfortable lead with 45.47 percent of the
    vote and 139,957 votes ahead of PRD candidate Bobby Velasquez
    by 17,868 votes.  La Prensa, noting that he had conceded
    defeated, reported on May 4 that Velasquez had won 40 percent
    of the vote.  Meanwhile, UP candidate Miguel Antonio Bernal
    took 14 percent of the vote.

    ¶10. (SBU) PRD San Miguelito mayor Hector Carrasquilla,
    according to a May 4 broadcast by Telemetro, held on to win
    election in Panama's second largest municipality.  With most
    voting tables reporting, Carrasquilla was leading the vote
    count by about 7,000 votes.

    ---------------------
    The Transition Starts
    ---------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) Shortly after Martinelli's victory speech,
    President Torrijos went on television and congratulated
    Martinelli on his victory.  He noted that he had spoken with
    Martinelli and said that they would meet on May 5 to "begin
    the transition."  Martinelli acknowledged that he would meet
    with Torrijos on May 5 and said he would be accompanied by
    VP-elect Juan Carlos Varela and Papadimitriu.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶12. (C) Exceeding the most optimistic predictions, Martinelli
    has won an enormous victory -- "a very big tsunami," he told
    international election observers.  The scope of his victory
    will be become apparent in the coming days as National
    Assembly and local-level races are determined.  Now,
    Martinelli must turn his attention to a much harder task than
    winning election:  governing.  It will be months before a
    functioning Martinelli Administration is up and running.  He
    won with the support of a complex four-party alliance, he is
    aided by only a small handful of young advisors that he truly
    trusts, and yet will need to grapple with tough issues in the
    immediate to near-term, including efforts to secure U.S.
    ratification of the FTA and security matters in the Darien.
    He willl need consolidate his base of support with the
    alliance and possibly including reaching out to the PRD to
    build the consensus necessary to tackle challenges.
    STEPHENSON

`