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### Viewing cable 06SANJOSE2617, CAFTA RATIFICATION ADVANCES IN COSTA RICA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SANJOSE2617 | 2006-11-17 20:08 | 2011-03-03 16:04 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy San Jose

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasDestacadas/Investigacion2697430.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotaPrincipal/Investigacion2697496.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2697489.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2697532.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2697535.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2701964.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-03/Investigacion/Relacionados/Investigacion2701965.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHSJ #2617/01 3212050
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 172050Z NOV 06
    FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6679

` `

    UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002617

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

    SIPDIS

    FOR UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE - A.MALITO

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD ECON PGOV KIPR CS
    SUBJECT: CAFTA RATIFICATION ADVANCES IN COSTA RICA

    REF:  SAN JOSE  1792

    ¶1.  (U) Summary.  Although President Arias has made it a top
    priority, Costa Rican efforts to ratify and implement CAFTA-DR have
    proceeded at a slow pace, but are picking up speed.  After more than
    five months of committee deliberations, the President of the
    legislative assembly (the Asamblea), with the backing of two-thirds
    of the body, has finally given the committee a deadline of midnight
    December 12 for reporting the ratification bill out of committee.
    If this deadline is met (as we anticipate), then full Asamblea
    debate will begin after the holiday recess in January, with the
    first of two required plenary votes expected by mid-February.  If
    there are no glitches, this timetable could lead to the second (and
    ratifying) vote in April, following mandatory review by the Supreme
    Court in March.  Ratification is just the first step, however.
    Twelve of thirteen bills necessary to implement the treaty have been
    introduced, but only three  have been reported out of committee and
    are ready for debate by the full Asamblea.  End Summary.

    --------------------------------------
    COMMITTEE ACTION ON CAFTA RATIFICATION
    --------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U) For more than five months Costa Rica's Asamblea has held
    committee hearings on whether to ratify CAFTA-DR, taking testimony
    from dozens of proponents and opponents.  On October 11, the
    legislature's international relations committee completed its
    hearings in San Jose.  After a one-day blitzkrieg of public fora
    around the country on October 14, the committee turned its attention
    to procedural motions and interpretive clauses intended to clarify
    legislative intent.  The committee has considered approximately 200
    procedural motions, most of which were stalling tactics by
    opponents.  So far 70 interpretive clauses intended to clarify
    legislative intent have been introduced in committee.

    ¶3.  (U) Because of the delays, on October 31, the President of the
    Asamblea, with the backing of two-thirds of the body, set a deadline
    of midnight December 12, 2006, for the committee to vote upon its
    recommendation.  Under legislative rules, any interpretive motions
    not acted upon by the deadline will be forwarded to the full body
    for consideration later.  Post believes a majority of the committee
    will recommend ratification on December 12.

    --------------------------------------------
    THE ASAMBLEA RATIFICATION PROCESS AND TIMING
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) According to legislative and executive branch sources, the
    full 57-member Asamblea (Plenary) is expected to begin deliberations
    in January 2007 with the first of two required plenary votes
    anticipated by mid-February.  Disagreement remains regarding the
    number of votes necessary to ratify the treaty.  While many experts
    believe a simple majority is sufficient, because some provisions of
    the treaty require changes that opponents contend conflict with the
    constitutional protection afforded to parastatal monopolies, the
    Arias administration believes a two-thirds majority (38 votes) is
    politically necessary to avoid a Supreme Court challenge and to
    silence critics.  The  administration remains confident they have 38
    votes.

    ¶5.  (U) If the treaty is voted favorably, it will automatically be
    submitted to the Supreme Court's "Sala IV" chamber for up to 30 days
    for constitutional and procedural review.  Following Supreme Court
    review, the treaty would be returned to the Asamblea for a second
    plenary debate and vote which should take only a few days.  If there
    are no glitches, post's best guess at this point is that CAFTA-DR
    probably will be ratified in Costa Rica in April 2007.

    ¶6.  (U) One potential glitch is the next round of public protests,
    which may take place around the time of the committee vote (in
    mid-December) or the first plenary vote (mid-February).  GOCR
    sources, pleased that the anti-CAFTA protests fell flat in October,
    have admitted to us that broader protests, (e.g., bringing in taxi
    drivers who could block streets, especially in San Jose), or more
    intense protests (e.g., making more use of university students)
    could be problematic.  Another potential glitch is in the Asamblea
    itself, where opposition parties, led by Otton Solis and the PAC
    party, could flood the plenary debate with motions as a stalling
    tactic.  Based on media interviews since November 12, the PAC seems
    to have chosen the plenary as its next battleground.  The third
    potential glitch is the Supreme Court, where opponents could bring a
    number of challenges to the treaty.

    -----------------
    ENTRY INTO FORCE
    -----------------

    ¶7.  (U) Ratification is only the first step in bringing CAFTA-DR
    into force in Costa Rica, however.  The United States Trade
    Representative (USTR) has identified 13 areas of Costa Rican law
    that must be amended to bring the country's laws into compliance
    with the treaty before it can enter into force.  Twelve of the
    necessary thirteen bills have been introduced in the Asamblea.  Of
    those, three relatively non-controversial bills have passed out of
    committee and await action in the Plenary.

    ¶8.  (U) Under Costa Rica's unusual legislative procedure, from
    December 1 until April 30 the executive branch controls the
    legislative agenda.  This week the Arias administration announced
    its first set of priorities for legislative action.  Three of the
    thirteen required CAFTA implementation bills appear on the priority
    list: Priority #3 - Opening of the insurance market; Priority #7 -
    intellectual property rights (IPR) reforms (the third of three
    required); and Priority #11 - opening of the telecommunications
    market.  These three bills are considered the most difficult and
    controversial part of the implementation agenda

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶9.  (SBU) One political commentator described the CAFTA process to
    us as a championship bout between evenly matched boxers.  There will be many rounds, and (probably) no knockout by either side.  The
    illustration may be apt.  The Arias administration got off to a slow
    start, but has been gaining ground.  As the legislative process
    continues, the government will have to take more punches -- in our
    view, more likely in the Asamblea than in the Supreme Court or in
    "the streets".  With sufficiently focused and determined politicalQleadership, post believes the Arias administration is up to the challenge of getting CAFTA ratified.

    ¶10.  (SBU) The real challenge will be the race to pass all of the
    legislation necessary implementing legislation before the Feb. 29,Q08 deadline.  If the Asamblea ratifies the agreement in April, the
    GOCR will have approximately 300 days to pass necessary legislation.
     Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic have all taken an average of 450 days (ranging from 396-478 days; in the case of the DR 438 days and counting) after ratification to bring
    the CAFTA into force.  The question remains whether the GOCR follows that pattern or emulates Nicaragua's example (which took only 173 days) of not rearguing the substance of commitments already included in the agreement.

`