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### Viewing cable 09MUSCAT457, OMAN’S ALI MAJID WARNS YEMEN "ON THE BRINK"

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09MUSCAT457 | 2009-05-19 09:09 | 2011-04-08 05:05 | SECRET | Embassy Muscat

`

    VZCZCXRO8624
    OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV
    DE RUEHMS #0457/01 1390948
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O R 190949Z MAY 09
    FM AMEMBASSY MUSCAT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0423
    INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHMS/AMEMBASSY MUSCAT

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 000457
    SIPDIS
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/05/19
    TAGS: PREL YM MU
    SUBJECT: OMAN’S ALI MAJID WARNS YEMEN "ON THE BRINK"
    MUSCAT 00000457 001.2 OF 002
    CLASSIFIED BY: Gary A. Grappo, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
    Summary
    -------
    ¶1. (S) In my farewell call May 18, General Ali bin Majid
    al-Ma’amari, Minister of the Royal Office and Chief of the Office
    of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, told me that Oman is
    "very concerned about stability" in Yemen, warning its neighbor is
    "on the brink." He said that southern separatists will soon
    formally announce their "movement," with former South Yemen Vice
    President Ali Salim al Baydh as its head. Oman has warned al Baydh
    that he will lose his Omani citizenship and protection if he joins
    the separatist movement. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is
    determined to protect Yemeni unity "by all means necessary," which
    would mean "another civil war" in Yemen in Ali Majid’s view.
    Moreover, Al Qa’ida in Yemen is poised to exploit the situation,
    siding with the separatists. Oman’s nominal second-in-command
    advised that the U.S., UK, Saudi Arabia and Oman should signal
    strong public support for Saleh and make clear that the separatists
    will receive no support from Yemen’s friends and neighbors. End
    Summary.
    "Unstable and on the Brink"
    ---------------------------
    ¶2. (S) General Ali Majid moved quickly from the courtesies
    surrounding my farewell call to draw attention to the "unstable"
    situation in Yemen. In his meetings with President Saleh two weeks
    ago, he said, Saleh appeared to underestimate the seriousness of
    the problem in the south, especially in light of Yemen’s many other
    ongoing challenges, e.g., the uncertain post-Saleh leadership
    situation, increasing tribal anti-government activities, continuing
    corruption, declining economic fortunes, government incompetence,
    and Somali pirates. Ali Majid said he urged Saleh to consider
    opening a dialog with the people of the south and work peacefully
    to address their concerns. Saleh was resistant, however, vowing to
    employ "all means necessary" to confront the separatists and
    preserve Yemen’s unity. That could only mean another civil war,
    said Ali Majid.
    Al Qa’ida to Exploit Separatist Movement
    ----------------------------------------
    ¶3. (S) Responding to my query, he confirmed his view that Saleh
    enjoyed firm support among the Yemeni security forces, the
    presidential guard and "probably most" of the army. Nevertheless,
    civil war would be disastrous for the country, likely destroying
    what economy exists and precipitating the exodus of "millions" of
    refugees to Saudi Arabia and Oman. Moreover, according to Omani
    intelligence, Al Qa’ida is likely ready to side with the
    separatists to exacerbate disunity, edge out the socialists, and
    ultimately establish control over the south. "It would be another
    Somalia and a disaster for the region."
    Ultimatum to al Baydh
    ---------------------
    ¶4. (S) The General confirmed that a senior Royal Office official
    had phoned al Baydh two days ago in Vienna, where he was
    "vacationing," and warned that Oman would not accept one of its
    citizens supporting separatism in Yemen. (Note: The former South
    Yemen Vice President was given effective asylum in Oman at the end
    of the civil war in 1993 and subsequently Omani citizenship.) Al
    Baydh reported that he had been asked to lead the separatists and
    will make a public announcement of the movement and his support in
    London on 21 or 22 May. When the Omani official warned that such
    an announcement would mean immediate loss of his Omani citizenship,
    the exiled Yemeni replied, "I’ll mail it (his passport) to you
    now."
    ¶5. (S) Ali Majid said Oman was firm in its position that no Omani
    would be permitted to advocate on behalf of the separatists. "We
    will stand by Sana’a and Saleh." He expressed anger that al Baydh
    had violated the conditions of his signed agreement disavowing
    MUSCAT 00000457 002.2 OF 002
    future involvement in a Yemeni opposition organization of any kind.
    "He’s a liar," said Ali Majid, but stopped short of categorically
    proclaiming withdrawal of al Baydh’s Omani passport yet. Should he
    make the statement in London, however, "He will not be an Omani."
    Al Baydh’s family may also lose their Omani passports. (Comment:
    Al Baydh has lived a life of considerable comfort in Oman, enjoying
    many privileges and gifts from the government of Oman.)
    Weak Leadership
    ---------------
    ¶6. (S) Despite Oman’s concerns about Yemen’s stability in the
    face of the separatist challenge, Ali Majid voiced little
    confidence in the separatists’ leadership. In addition to doubts
    about al Baydh, he named Tariq al Fadhli as another likely senior
    leader who would be "easily manipulated" by others, including Al
    Qa’ida. In fact, he alleged, Al Qa’ida would seek to provoke armed
    conflict, incite greater instability, and if unable to control the
    entire south region, would likely carve out a portion in which it
    could operate and govern. In sum, Ali Majid said Oman knew many of
    the separatists very well, some of them "since the sixties," and
    had little regard for any of them.
    ¶7. (S) Oman is also concerned about the leadership in Sana’a.
    While Saleh remains as president, the government ought to remain
    firmly in charge. But the succession picture is cloudy. He
    refused to be drawn out on an assessment of Abdullah Saleh’s son,
    but did evince confidence in the Northwest Regional Commander,
    General Ali Mohsin al Ahmar.
    What Can Be Done?
    -----------------
    ¶8. (S) Oman is not in a position to take significant action to
    mitigate the threat Sana’a faces from the southern separatists,
    said Ali Majid. Nevertheless, he pronounced Oman firmly behind
    Sana’a and might, if conditions warranted, be willing to come out
    publicly in voicing its support. He encouraged other countries,
    specifically the U.S., UK and Saudi Arabia, to consider doing the
    same, especially in the event of the anticipated announcement from
    London.
    Comment
    -------
    ¶9. (S) This is the fourth and most senior Omani official in a
    week to share with me Oman’s grave concerns for Yemen’s future.
    The issue clearly has risen to the top of Oman’s security agenda,
    eclipsing for the moment even Iran. At one point when I raised
    Iran, he made one brief comment ad returned immediately to the
    subject of Yemen. Oman is worried that Saleh may fail to act
    quickly enough to stunt the separatists, leaving armed conflict the
    only remaining solution. In such an eventuality, Oman’s chief
    worry is thousands of Yemeni refugees massing on its border and
    attempting entry, some of whom may be with Al Qa’ida. Oman’s
    government is not equipped at present to deal with such a
    humanitarian crisis and lacks the resources and expertise to become
    capable. In all likelihood, it would refuse the refugees entry.
    GRAPPO

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