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### Viewing cable 06AMMAN6933, SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF JORDAN,S KING ABDULLAH

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06AMMAN6933 | 2006-09-07 14:02 | 2011-03-15 18:06 | SECRET | Embassy Amman
Appears in these articles: not yet set

`

    VZCZCXYZ0002
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHAM #6933/01 2501453
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 071453Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3936
    INFO RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT IMMEDIATE 2472
    RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 2605
    RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV IMMEDIATE 0130
    RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM IMMEDIATE 4031
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0431

` `

    S E C R E T AMMAN 006933

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016
    TAGS: PREL UN IS LE IZ JO
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF JORDAN,S KING ABDULLAH

    REF: A. AMMAN 6724

    ¶B. AMMAN 6519
    ¶C. AMMAN 6335
    ¶D. AMMAN 6179
    ¶E. AMMAN 6023
    ¶F. AMMAN 5963
    ¶G. AMMAN 6542
    ¶H. STATE 147035
    ¶I. AMMAN 6329
    ¶J. AMMAN 6932

    Classified By: Ambassador David Hale, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) King Abdullah will be in New York for the General
    Assembly opening and will meet with U.S. and other officials
    its margins.

    ¶2. (C) During the Israel-Hizballah hostilities, the King's
    stock plunged among both ordinary Jordanians and elites (refs
    a-f) because of his early public criticism of Hizballah and
    his close identification with the U.S. Even before the
    Lebanon conflict, most Jordanians viewed the GOJ's
    relationships with the U.S. and Israel as an unpleasant
    necessity at best; the violence in Lebanon unleashed emotions
    so intense that it seems most came to view Jordan's ties with
    the U.S. and Israel as matters for national shame. Nasrallah
    and Hamas are regarded as heroes, and the course of
    moderation viewed as discredited and obsolete. The King is
    unapologetic about his stance, but believes moderate Arab
    leaders need to be strengthened now. He believes moderate
    Arab states are seriously undermined because they are unable
    to show results from their peace efforts, while extremists of
    Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas are setting the regional
    agenda and - to Arab eyes - putting Israel on the defensive
    for the first time in decades. He fears that the failure of
    moderates to address the roots of conflict and instability in
    the region could lead to fundamental shifts in the region in
    favor of extremists and paralyze reformists who are being
    viewed as irrelevant to Arabs' core concerns, which are being
    successfully defined by the rhetoric of the likes of
    Al-Jazeera and Ahmadinejad. The King therefore views
    effective and serious USG peace efforts in the region to
    repair moderates' standing at home as essential. He
    recognizes that for there to be progress, Abu Mazen needs to
    form a government that meets Quartet conditions, and is
    working toward that end. He also opposes Arab League efforts
    to take the issue to the UNSC as an ineffective,
    counterproductive gimmick.

    ¶3. (U) Other issues that may come up in the King's meetings
    with the USG:

    Lebanon's Recovery
    ------------------

    ¶4. (C) The GOJ, Jordanian NGOs and private donors have
    provided considerable relief supplies to Lebanon. The
    Jordanian military provided its own air transport, pilots for
    other governments' relief aircraft, and engineers for
    reconstruction work. In addition, Amman's international
    airport has been serving as an inspection gateway so that
    commercial flights could reach Beirut while the Israeli
    blockade was in place. The GOJ reacted with tetchy denials
    when some Arab media accused Jordan of permitting "Mossad
    agents" to inspect aircraft (ref G), or otherwise helping
    implement Israel's blockade.

    ¶5. (S) Even before the July 12 outbreak of hostilities, King
    Abdullah was seeking USG approval and support for his ideas
    on bolstering Lebanese government security forces. He has
    now made rifles available to the LAF (ref H) and will support
    other USG efforts to generate international security
    assistance for Lebanese national forces.

    Iraq
    ----

    ¶6. (S) The GOJ is worried that the USG and GOI are losing the
    battle to impose control on Iraq. Visits to Jordan by senior
    U.S. military leaders like General Abizaid (and General
    Casey, due here September 12) have gone some way toward
    helping the King understand U.S. strategy to address the
    situation, but he has nevertheless told several U.S. and
    European officials that he feels he must plan for "worst case
    scenarios" in Iraq that include the breakup of the country.

    ¶7. (SBU) Jordan's Prime Minister Maarouf Bakhit and seven
    other Jordanian cabinet members visited Baghdad August 17,
    and at the same time a Jordanian Ambassador presented his
    credentials. Bakhit returned to Jordan with an Iraqi promise
    to provide Jordan discounted oil, though there is skepticism
    here about Iraq's capability to comply in the near term (ref
    I).

    Iran
    ----

    ¶8. (S) Jordan's leadership views Iran's ambitions in the
    region with suspicion and alarm, and as the main strategic
    threat in the Middle East. For several years King Abdullah
    and his top advisors have been expressing concern about an
    Iranian play for regional dominance using cards that include
    the nuclear standoff, Iraqi Shia parties, the Syrian
    government, Hizballah, and some Palestinian groups. A viable
    Israeli-Palestinian peace process is, in the King's view,
    essential in order to strengthen moderate Arabs' ability to
    reverse Iranian inroads, which in part stem from the
    perception that Iran is the Palestinians' greatest champion.

    ¶9. (SBU) As on many other issues, however, ordinary
    Jordanians' views diverge considerably from their leaders'.
    The prospect of a Shia-dominated Iraq still worries most
    here. But the Jordanian "street" now in large part welcomes
    Iran's other regional gambits - including its nuclear
    program. A tribal leader summed up the mood when he told
    poloff that in the wake of Lebanon "we would welcome Satan
    himself if he confronted Israel."

    Reform
    ------

    ¶10. (SBU) King Abdullah convened Jordan's 700 top political,
    business and cultural personalities for a retreat in July
    that forged a consensus on the next steps in his push for
    reform. Thanks in large part to this and other Palace
    efforts, the normally reform-adverse parliament is making
    progress toward passing much of the government's ambitious
    agenda of reform legislation. The municipal government bill,
    if passed, will provide for local elections within six
    months; some opponents of the measure as currently drafted
    warn that the Muslim Brotherhood will scoop up most of
    Jordan's local governments. The cash-strapped GOJ hopes that
    municipal government reform and other political reforms will
    win it MCC compact funding. Champions of reform, however,
    feel weakened and vulnerable in the face of public hostility
    toward anything associated with the U.S. While until now,
    Jordanian officials were loath to link progress on reform
    with the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, their views
    changed this summer. Without urgent activity to resolve the
    Palestinian problem, figures such as Bassam Awadallah argue,
    moderate reformists will be dismissed as irrelevant and the
    gap between the "street" and elitist reformers will widen
    further.

    Jordanian Candidate to Succeed Kofi Annan
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶11. (S) Jordan nominated September 5 its PermRep at the UN,
    Prince Zeid bin Raad, to succeed Kofi Annan. The GOJ appears
    to have secured Arab League endorsement of the Prince's
    candidacy (ref j.)

    Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/
    HALE

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