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### Viewing cable 07LISBON2307, SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S SEPTEMBER 17

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07LISBON2307 | 2007-09-07 16:04 | 2010-12-15 21:09 | SECRET | Embassy Lisbon

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHLI #2307/01 2501609
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 071609Z SEP 07
    FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
    TO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6222
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T LISBON 002307

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM AMBASSADOR ALFRED HOFFMAN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017
    TAGS: PREL PO
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S SEPTEMBER 17
    MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES

    Classified By: Ambassador Alfred Hoffman for
    reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

    ¶1. (SBU) Mr. President:

    Your meeting with Prime Minister Socrates -- two months into
    Portugal's EU presidency -- provides an excellent early
    opportunity to try to shape the Portuguese government's
    priorities in a direction consistent with U.S. interests,
    both from a bilateral perspective and in the EU context.

    Portugal - A Steadfast Ally
    ---------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Portugal, a founding member of NATO, is a steadfast
    ally that has consistently stood by our side over the years
    under both center-right and center-left governments. The
    President and Prime Minister -- from opposing political
    parties -- each regularly stress that trans-Atlantic
    relations are a pillar of Portuguese foreign policy and that
    NATO is the primary guarantor of European security. At our
    request, Portugal ultimately withdrew its leading candidacy
    to host the 2008 NATO Summit in favor of Romania. In return,
    the USG agreed to support Portugal's bid to host the 2010
    NATO Summit.

    ¶3. (SBU) Portugal has provided virtually free access to
    Portuguese air and seaports for military support operations
    in Iraq and Afghanistan, with over three thousand flights a
    year transiting Lajes Air Base in the Azores. It has also
    granted permission to use Lajes in support of repatriation of
    detainees from Guatanamo. Despite severe budgetary
    constraints, it is currently engaged internationally on
    numerous fronts with military personnel in Iraq, Afghanistan
    (where it has lost one soldier), East Timor, Kosovo, and
    Lebanon, and, until recently, in Bosnia and the Congo.
    Portugal has been an outstanding partner in the war on terror
    and collaborates actively with us as a member of the
    Proliferation Security Initiative, the Container Security
    Initiative, and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear
    Terrorism.

    EU presidency priorities
    ------------------------

    ¶4. (C) While agreement on the shape of a new EU treaty was
    achieved during the German presidency, detailed negotiation
    and signature of the document have fallen to the Portuguese
    presidency, which hopes to secure endorsement of a final text
    by the heads of government meeting in December. This
    internal EU task has not derailed Portugal's external policy
    goals, but it has absorbed scarce resources and high-level
    attention within the Portuguese government.

    ¶5. (U) Socrates and other senior Portuguese officials have
    noted that the EU's biggest foreign policy concern is along
    its southern and southeastern borders, which are threatened
    by radical Islam and poverty. He has proposed strengthening
    the EU's ties to Washington, Moscow, and Mediterranean
    countries to help contain radical Islam in that region; this
    strategy includes lending strong support to Turkish accession
    to the EU, involving the EU more closely in the Middle East
    Peace Process, and strengthening the EU's economic and
    cultural ties to the region through the Barcelona Process.

    ¶6. (C) So far during their Presidency, the Portuguese have
    taken a primarily facilitative approach, seeking broad
    consensus on most issues. They have dedicated their
    individual efforts to the few issues they care most about: a
    strategic partnership with Africa and the Middle East
    processes noted above. Beyond those issues, the Portuguese
    governmental structure has engaged in efforts to strengthen
    EU ties with Brazil, India, China, Russia, and Ukraine
    through high-profile summits.

    ¶7. (C) The EU-Brazil summit in Lisbon the first week of
    Portugal's presidency was successful in establishing a
    long-term relationship with a significant partner and
    energizing the debate in Europe on biofuels. Portuguese
    interlocutors candidly told us that they did not expect much
    and that the summit was only the first step toward an
    EU-Brazil strategic partnership, but that they were delighted
    with the outcome. We believe this may raise Portuguese
    ambitions for the other summits.

    Suggested areas of focus
    ------------------------

    ¶8. (C) Kosovo: The Portuguese believe the current Troika-led

    negotiations are a necessary last effort but are not
    optimistic about the outcome. They believe Kosovar
    independence is inevitable, but worry about both the Kosovars
    moving too quickly and the perceived need to have Russian
    agreement on any solution. The Portuguese are working to
    find a legal mechanism that permits individual member states
    to recognize an independent Kosovo absent a UNSCR, and that
    provides the basis for deployment of an EU rule of law
    mission. They need to hear from you that leaving Kosovo in
    limbo is not an option, that giving Russia veto power over
    foreign policy challenges in the heart of Europe sets a
    troubling precedent, and that the world needs resolution on
    this troubling issue this year.

    ¶9. (C) Russia: Prime Minister Socrates visited Moscow
    recently and was criticized in many quarters for his failure
    to address Russia's aggressive behavior against EU allies
    Poland and Estonia, human rights issues, or Moscow's penchant
    for rhetoric and gamesmanship on energy and security.
    Portugal currently does not depend on Russia for any energy
    needs, although that dynamic may be changing, given recent
    collaborative efforts between the national oil company and
    Gazprom, and Gazprom's collaboration with Algeria's
    Sonatrach, which provides a majority of Portugal's natural
    gas needs. Socrates's advisors suggested to us following the
    trip that we needed to tone down our own rhetoric in order to
    elicit more constructive engagement from Moscow. One senior
    advisor even suggested that our plan to place the missile
    defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic -- the two
    more problematic EU member states -- had not helped matters
    when we wanted the EU to come to our defense.

    ¶10. (C) Middle East: The Portuguese believe they have little
    historical baggage in the region and thus can advance
    progress on key issues. They have stressed many times and at
    the highest levels that the Road Map is the way forward, but
    that it needs to be reinvigorated. Foreign Minister Amado
    has traveled extensively to the Middle East and was one of
    the first to call for a special session of EU Foreign
    Ministers at the onset of last summer's hostilities in
    Lebanon. In addition, Portugal has contributed an Army
    engineering company to UNIFIL. Portugal shares our deep
    concerns about Iran's nuclear weapons program and has been
    very supportive of efforts to increase pressure on Tehran.

    ¶11. (C) Afghanistan: Portuguese Special Forces and other
    troops serve without caveat and are engaged in heavy fighting
    in the volatile south. In addition, in response to an appeal
    from the United States, Portugal recently agreed to assume
    leadership of one Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team
    (OMLT). The Portuguese stress that they are with us in
    Afghanistan for the duration of NATO operations so
    congratulations for their current contributions are in order
    as well as encouragement to continue. Portugal has
    contributed $2 million in assistance; however, they are
    financially over-stretched and have not given more because of
    budgetary constraints.

    ¶12. (C) Iraq: Portugal had an infantry company in Iraq for
    two years and also contributed trainers for the police
    training mission. Portugal recently downsized its diplomatic
    presence in Baghdad because of cost (its operations were four
    times as expensive as any other embassy), but let us know far
    in advance and wanted to coordinate what they said publicly
    as they were sensitive to the political ramifications.

    ¶13. (C) Africa: Portugal has a special relationship with
    Africa, particularly with its former colonies. It intends to
    host an EU-Africa Summit, although it has tried to deflect
    diplomatic conflict over the potential attendance of
    Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe who is subject to an EU
    travel ban. The UK, the Netherlands, and others may not
    attend at the head of government level should Mugabe
    participate. Although the Portuguese have led the
    development of an action plan between the EU and African
    Union, the negative ramifications of Mugabe's presence in
    Lisbon could overshadow any accomplishments.

    ¶14. (SBU) Major Economies Meeting: Socrates was pleased that
    Portugal, in its capacity as EU President, was invited to
    represent the European Union at the September 27-28 Major
    Economies Meeting on Climate Change and Energy Security in
    Washington. He is strong proponent of environmental issues,
    having served as Environment Minister from 1999-2002. The
    current Environment State Secretary Humberto Rosa is
    scheduled to lead the delegation.

    Particular Bilateral Points
    ----------------------------

    ¶15. (SBU) The Portuguese government has, at the highest
    levels, stressed its interest in collaborating with the
    United States to strengthen security and stability in Africa,
    an effort which has begun in earnest. We are conducting
    joint demining training in Guinea-Bissau and are looking at
    developing an HIV prevention program for African armed
    forces. We are also exploring opportunities to work together
    in the Special Operations arena in Africa. We hope to include
    the Portuguese in peacekeeping training in Mozambique and
    Angola under the African Contingency Operations training and
    Assistance (ACOTA) program and a joint State-Defense team
    from Washington recently visited Lisbon to discuss further
    opportunities. In addition, our Department of Commerce has
    been working with Portuguese counterparts on a program to
    computerize Angola's judicial records.

    ¶16. (S/NF) Socrates agreed to allow the repatriation of
    enemy combatants out of Guatanamo through Lajes Air Base on a
    case-by-case basis. This was a difficult decision, given the
    sustained criticism by Portuguese media and leftist elements
    of his own party over the government's handling of the CIA
    rendition flights controversy. Socrates's agreement has
    never been made public. The Attorney General's Office was
    forced to review a dossier of news clippings and
    unsubstantiated allegations regarding CIA rendition
    operations through Portugal provided by a member of the
    European Parliament. The AG's report should be released in
    the near future. Although we cannot predict its conclusions,
    government insiders and legal scholars have told us there was
    no useful or prosecutable information in the dossier.

    Prime Minister Socrates
    -----------------------

    ¶17. (C) Socrates is a telegenic and charismatic leader, who
    worked hard to improve his English in advance of the EU
    presidency. He relies on advice from a small circle of
    advisors. He is a very moderate Socialist who has been
    successful at co-opting or marginalizing the leftists in his
    party, from whom he has taken some heat for his pro-U.S.
    policies. He also aggressively pursued his domestic agenda
    before assuming the EU presidency, achieving difficult labor
    and social security reforms and reducing Portugal's budget
    deficit to near EU-mandated levels.

    Hoffman

`