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### Viewing cable 09MEXICO1055, SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S VISIT TO MEXICO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09MEXICO1055 | 2009-04-14 16:04 | 2011-03-02 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/encuentros-entre-obama-y-calderon

`

    VZCZCXRO9431
    OO RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #1055/01 1041611
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 141611Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6012
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM PETERSON AFB CO IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

` `

    202259
    2009-04-14 16:11:00
    09MEXICO1055
    Embassy Mexico
    CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN

    VZCZCXRO9431
    OO RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
    DE RUEHME #1055/01 1041611
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 141611Z APR 09
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6012
    INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM PETERSON AFB CO IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 001055

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LESLIE BASSETT;
    NSC FOR DAN RESTREPO

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SNAR KCRM MX
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S VISIT TO MEXICO
    CITY, APRIL 16-17,2009

    Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LESLIE BASSETT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and
     (D)

    ¶1.  (Confidential) Key Points
    --Despite the challenges presented by criminal violence in
    Mexico and the global financial crisis, President Calderon
    remains an effective and authoritative leader of an
    economically and politically viable nation.  He is genuinely
    committed to leave a legacy at the end of his term in which
    the rule of law prevails, Mexico,s criminal organizations
    are much-diminished and the benefits of Mexico,s wealth and
    trade are more widely shared among its citizens.  Recognizing
    our interdependence in each of these areas, he looks forward
    to building strategic alliances with us to advance common
    goals in the areas of security, commerce and sustainable
    economic development.
    --President Calderon will seek to engage you on a wide range
    of issues, but will focus most intently on the domestic
    security challenges facing Mexico from criminal violence.
    He will be greatly appreciative of U.S. cooperation in this
    area to date, but will press for even greater engagement on
    our  side of the border to address U.S. demand for illegal
    narcotics, reverse the upward trend of illegal arms passing
    into Mexico from the United States and stem illegal money
    flows to Mexico,s cartels.
    --Abroad (and to a traditionally inward-looking Mexican
    public), President Calderon has  promoted Mexico as an
    international player, asserted its place as a regional power
    and sought to burnish its image as a good place to do
    business.  President Calderon clearly sees the U.S.-Mexico
    partnership as having positive effects in the hemisphere and
    hopes to see the U.S. reassert its leadership in the region.
     In this regard, he believes the upcoming Summit of the
    Americas is a key opportunity for you to outline the
    direction you plan to take your regional policy.   Mexico
    wants to take a low-profile approach as a problem-solver in
    Port-of-Spain to keep the summit on track.   Calderon will be
    supportive of your vision overall and could be an important
    partner in keeping grandstanding by certain regional leaders
    to a minimum.
    --Your visit will cement already solid relations between two
    countries with deep historic ties.   While close partners,
    however, Mexico and the United States continue to experience
    growing pains associated with expanding trade and broadening
    security cooperation.  Differences are  is manageable if we
    approach them in the spirit of cooperation among equals.
    President Calderon is eager to establish both a close
    personal and cooperative working relationship with you and
    will be seeking confirmation that you view him as a true
    partner.
    Law and Order
    -------------------

    ¶2.  (C) Clearly Mexico is not an impending failed state, as
    some in the U.S. have described, but there are serious
    consequences of failure if President Calderon does not
    succeed in containing Mexico,s criminal organizations.   In
    all likelihood, Mexico,s federal system would be
    significantly undermined should the cartels retain and
    strengthen their presence in Mexico,s periphery.  Mexico,s
    political class and public, while currently supportive of the
    president,s drive against the cartels, could slip back into
    the complacent mindset that characterized the early decades
    of the drug-trade here.   Our bilateral law enforcement
    dialogue could revert  back to the antagonistic
    finger-pointing on crime and violence of previous years.
    Flow of drugs across our southern border would certainly
    increase, feeding drug-abuse and criminality in the U.S.
    Ultimately, violence and lawlessness along our common border
    would seriously impede the robust trade which has benefited
    both countries greatly in recent decades and reduce our
    ability to secure our southern border.
    ¶3.  (SBU)  Recognizing these dangers, President Calderon
    remains committed to improving the country's security
    situation through aggressive law enforcement and reforms to
    the country's policing and judicial institutions.  Few
    observers believe there are viable short-term alternatives to
    his strategy of mounting joint military-law enforcement

    MEXICO 00001055  002 OF 004

    anti-narcotic operations which have drawn nearly 40,000
    troops into the fray.  Most here, however, pin their longer
    term hopes on the important security and justice reform
    packages President Calderon stewarded through the Mexican
    Congress in recent months which, if appropriately
    implemented, will help to modernize and restructure the
    country's justice system, as well as improve and better
    coordinate Mexico's disparate police forces.
    ¶4.  (SBU) President Calderon needs ) and Mexico,s public
    and political class, by and large, appreciate ) the helping
    hand we have offered.   The Merida Initiative provides
    important material support to President Calderon,s strategic
    goals and, as important, demonstrates shared resolve in
    facing up to the challenges posed by organized crime.  While
    this initiative was originally conceived of as a three-year
    plan, it is increasingly apparent the Mexican government
    anticipates the kind of cooperation and assistance it entails
    will extend much longer.  Recent suggestions in the U.S. that
    Mexico is unable to govern its territory in the face of
    criminal violence, have focused attention on what Mexicans
    think the U.S. itself needs to do, as part of broader Merida
    cooperation, to help confront the common threat posed by
    organized criminal networks. President Calderon will surely
    raise his concern about the flow of arms south.  He will
    likely press you to actively follow up on the recently
    concluded bilateral arms trafficking conference with concrete
    actions, including reinstating the assault weapons
    importation ban which lapsed in 2004.  Similarly, President
    Calderon is committed to improving interdiction of laundered
    money which feeds cartel operations in Mexico and will
    encourage you to expand and compliment efforts on both sides
    of the border.  Finally, President Calderon is looking for
    the U.S. to rededicate itself to combating drug demand at
    home.
    Looking for Opportunities in Troubled Times
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶5.  (SBU) Despite Mexico,s having slid into recession as a
    result of the world financial crisis, things could be worse.
    Its peso has regained strength against the dollar in recent
    weeks and its stock market has rebounded to a degree as well.
     Sound macroeconomic reforms enacted in recent years have
    significantly buttressed Mexico,s ability to withstand the
    impact of downturns in the U.S. and the world. Still, a
    stimulus package put together in recent months by the
    President may not be enough to pull Mexico out of recession
    in the near term.
    ¶6.  (SBU) Fully 82 percent of Mexico,s exports go to the
    U.S. and we remain by far the country,s largest source of
    foreign investment.  Mexico,s long-term prospects are tied
    to ours and President Calderon is particularly mindful of the
    positive impact NAFTA has had on both our economies.  He is
    keen to avoid nasty trade disputes that might undermine
    commitment to the treaty in both countries.  While he
    believes recent events such as the cessation of the
    cross-border trucking model program mark a step backwards
    towards protectionism, he will focus his discussion on ways
    we can move the economic relationship in positive directions.
     He has said he wants to build on NAFTA,s accomplishments
    and would consider strengthening side agreements in labor and
    the environment, if doing so did not undermine the existing
    treaty.  With other delegations he has recently raised
    Mexico's interest in expanding NADBank's mandate to include
    development projects distant from the border.  Calderon will
    certainly query you on the status of an alternative trucking
    program, and explore how we might constructively approach
    labor and environmental issues in the context of NAFTA.
    ¶7.   (SBU) An outside-the-box, but clear-headed thinker,
    President Calderon is looking for new areas in which we might
    expand our partnership.   For example, he believes North
    America can demonstrate greater leadership on the
    environment; recognizing your interest in this theme, he may
    seek your partnership to combat climate change, deforestation
    and industrial waste and foster the development of clean and
    sustainable energy sources.  Focusing on cooperation on
    climate change and development of clean energy allows us to
    deepen our energy relationship while avoiding long-standing
    Mexican sensitivities about its oil resources.  However,

    MEXICO 00001055  003 OF 004

    there may be one sensitive area President Calderon will want
    to address by asking you to consider negotiating a bilateral
    treaty on potential cross border oil reservoirs.   Without
    committing to an agreement, you may want to assure him that
    we are committed to managing potential transboundary reserves
    equitably.
    ¶8.  (SBU) Calderon may also want to examine ways we can build
    alliances in areas like healthcare.  The U.S. suffers from a
    shortage of health care workers and health care costs are
    spiraling.  Mexico produces a surplus of health care workers
    and its health care costs are comparably much lower.
    President Calderon has spoken of tapping synergies both in
    terms of labor and services to reduce costs, improve service,
    and expand flexibility.  He may choose to frame his
    discussion of immigration issues in these same terms, looking
    for a revival and expansion of our H-2 temporary worker
    program as an opportunity to marry Mexico,s surplus of
    low-wage semi-skilled workers to the U.S. shortage of such
    manpower.  He will be interested in hearing about your
    strategy to pursue immigration reform in the U.S. in the face
    of the severe economic downturn.
    ¶9.  (SBU) Calderon remains interested in making the
    U.S.-Mexico border more secure, but also more competitive.
    He may raise the need for greater investment in port of entry
    structures along both sides of the border.  The Mexican
    President may also suggest we review usage of shared water
    resources like the Colorado River.
    Beyond the Bilateral Relationship
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶10.  (C) President Calderon highly values the unique U.S. )
    Mexico relationship and the steps he has taken during his
    presidency to strengthen it.   He also seeks a larger role
    internationally for his country.   President Calderon will
    use Mexico,s two year tenure on the council to expand
    Mexico,s growing engagement in the world, and encourage his
    own countrymen to become more actively interested and
    involved in world affairs.    Mexico,s tenure has so far
    been positive.  We work closely and constructively with its
    UN team both in Mexico City and New York, and Mexico,s
    president will be receptive to your encouragement that Mexico
    take on a more active global role and strengthen its
    diplomatic partnership with us.
    ¶11.  (SBU) Regionally, Mexico views itself as a key leader
    and Calderon,s actions during his tenure have been designed
    to capitalize on Mexico,s large commercial and cultural
    footprint in the region.  While deeply suspicious of
    leftist-populism, he has avoided the bitter feuding his
    predecessor waged with Cuba and Venezuela and sought to
    normalize relations with the former.  He is deeply concerned
    with the spiral toward lawlessness in Central America and
    seeks our cooperation, through the Merida Initiative and
    other programs, to bolster the security and stability of his
    southern neighbors.
    ¶12.  (C)  Just as President Calderon seeks to engage Mexico
    with the rest of the world, he wants to see the U.S. more
    engaged in the region.   He views U.S. leadership as highly
    positive (and has lamented that he feels somewhat isolated as
    one of the few democratically elected regional leaders who is
    genuinely committed to the free market and to strengthening,
    rather than undermining, democratic institutions).    He
    believes your presidency will help burnish the U.S.,s image
    and credibility at as time when empty populism has captured
    the spotlight in the hemisphere.  The upcoming Summit of the
    Americas is a key opportunity for you to define the terms of
    your engagement.  While worried about the possibility of
    grandstanding by Venezuela,s Hugo Chavez, and the issue of
    Cuba being inserted divisively into the agenda, President
    Calderon is optimistic that your participation in the Summit
    will help establish a pattern of positive cooperation between
    you and your regional counterparts.   You can expect him to
    be supportive of your goals for the summit.
    ¶13.  (U) Mr. President, all of us in the Embassy community
    look forward to your visit to Mexico with great excitement
    and anticipation.   If there is anything I or any member of
    my staff can do to make your visit a success, please let me
    know.   Bassett

    MEXICO 00001055  004 OF 004

    ---
    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
    Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
    BASSETT

`