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### Viewing cable 05ROME902, IRAQ/ITALY - TRANSCRIPT AND COMMENT ON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05ROME902 | 2005-03-17 05:05 | 2011-02-21 11:11 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Rome

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 000902

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR S, D, P, NEA AND EUR;
    OSD FOR SECDEF, DEPSECDEF WOLFOWITZ AND USDP FEITH;
    NSC FOR DAN FRIED;
    CENTCOM FOR GEN. ABIZAID;
    BAGHDAD FOR AMB. NEGROPONTE AND GEN. CASEY

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2015
    TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV IT IZ IRAQI FREEDOM AFGHANISTAN
    SUBJECT: IRAQ/ITALY - TRANSCRIPT AND COMMENT ON
    BERLUSCONI'S TROOP REDUCTION COMMENTS

    REF: ROME 886

    Classified By: A/DCM SCOTT KILNER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  PM Berlusconi's comments on the March 15
    edition of ""Porta a Porta,"" a popular television
    news/interview program, suggesting the withdrawal of Italian
    troops from Iraq beginning in September of this year, have
    made an impact in both the Italian popular press and in
    international media.  As is often the case, his comments were
    taken out of context in some cases and in others spun
    according to the political leanings of editors.  In fact, the
    Prime Minister's comments were not much different from what
    the Italian Government has been saying for some months --
    Italy would like to get its troops out of Iraq sooner rather
    than later, but not at the expense of Iraqi security and
    democracy-building efforts.  Berlusconi's immediate
    reassurance to us (reftel) that there is no real change in
    Italy,s policy underlines the extent to which his surprise
    announcement is driven by imminent regional elections.  END
    SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (U)  Given the sensitivity of this issue and in the
    interests of maximum clarity, Embassy is providing at end of
    this cable a transcript of our unofficial translation of the
    PM's comments.  (See Para 6.)

    ¶3.  (SBU)  In the March 16 edition of centrist La Stampa,
    Berlusconi spokesperson Paolo Bonaiuti elaborated on the
    Prime Minister's remarks.  ""First, the Iraqi Government must
    be in agreement (with an Italian withdrawal).  Then our
    Allies must agree.  Finally the highest military authorities
    must find an understanding over procedures.  In sum, we will
    try to begin the withdrawal in September and we will seek to
    bring it to conclusion by the end of the year.""  (Embassy
    note:  The phrasing could mean either the end of 2005 or
    within a one-year time period.)  ""These are our intentions,
    but then we must take into account reality,"" Bonaiuti
    concluded.

    ----------------------------------
    COMMENT:  IT'S ALL ABOUT ELECTIONS
    ----------------------------------

    ¶4.  (C)  Like other national leaders, Berlusconi is finding
    discussion of an exit strategy to be an asset when facing
    elections.  What surprised us is his decision to play this
    card now, before regional elections in which Iraq will be a
    minor issue.  A growing majority of the Italian public
    opposes the continued Italian deployment in Iraq.  In the
    wake of the liberation of hostage Giuliana Sgrena and the
    shooting of Italian intelligence official Nicola Calipari, a
    La Stampa poll published this week shows 47% favoring
    withdrawal (up from 35% in February) and only 14% favoring
    remaining under current conditions.

    ¶5.  (C)  Berlusconi's and Bonaiuti's caveats will leave the
    Prime Minister lots of wiggle room to avoid withdrawal if the
    situation in Iraq does not improve by September, and/or if
    Iraq/U.S./UK push him hard to maintain Italy's presence.
    However, Berlusconi's reassurances to us of ""no change in
    policy"" (reftel) could still run up against electoral
    reality.  In national elections next year, voters will be
    more likely to remember the ""promise"" in the headlines than
    the caveats underneath.  Watching the polls as astutely as he
    does, Berlusconi could find himself pushed into a symbolic
    withdrawal -- or more -- by the end of the year.  END COMMENT.

    ¶6.  (U)  Begin transcript of segment of March 15 edition of
    ""Porta a Porta.""  Names other than Berlusconi's refer to
    journalists who appeared with him on the program:

    Mario Orfeo, (managing editor of Naples daily Il Mattino):
    Both you and FM Fini talked about exit strategy. When?  What
    does it depend on? Does it depend on us, on the Americans or
    an Iraqi request?

    Berlusconi:  It depends on the capacity the Iraqi government
    will have to set up adequate security and police forces

    because the birth and the growth of democracy in Iraq can
    take place only if the minimally acceptable conditions of
    security are in place in the country. Therefore, we, I
    personally and deeply, talked about this with Tony Blair,
    saying we must create a precise &exit strategy8 (said in
    English), also because our public opinions are waiting for
    this communication. And we agreed that we will talk about
    this in the near future as we link this to the will and the
    organizational ability of the next Iraqi government to
    increase their capability of self defense so that we can in
    parallel and in a complementary way reduce our presence in
    Iraq.

    Bruno Vespa (host):  Is it realistic to imagine that we would
    withdraw after the national elections at the end of the year?

    Berlusconi:  I think we will certainly begin reducing the
    number of our military even before, in accordance(

    Paolo Gambescia (Il Messagero managing editor):
    (Interrupting)  Even before the end of the year?

    Berlusconi:  Even before the end of the year.

    Vespa:  This is news.

    Berlusconi:  It is our will to aim for a possible reduction
    even before the end of the year, in agreement with our
    allies, and with the Iraqi government.

    Orfeo:  You gave us very good news.

    Berlusconi: We are working on this direction because we are
    self-aware. Let's remember with pride that we are the 6th
    largest economy in the world and therefore we have to take
    responsibility for democracy and freedom in the world.
    Without democracy there is no real freedom, and without real
    freedom there cannot be growth in countries. Therefore I
    believe the commitment - as suggested to President Bush and
    the Republican majority, the American majority, out of their
    Constitution ) to assume the role of world leader, that he
    has wanted to do this, is something very positive. Only when
    we will no longer have those 30 or 40 countries where human
    dignity is not respected will it be possible to have
    countries that grow in well being. I'm absolutely convinced
    that the western countries will bear some blame if the
    sub-Saharan African countries have no conditions of well
    being. They have not been able to give themselves conditions
    of democracy, hence freedom, hence they have not known growth
    and well being.

    Vespa:  So, in your opinion, how many months until the first
    leave?

    Berlusconi:  I think that beginning in September, in the
    talks I have had with my colleagues, beginning in September
    we would like to begin a progressive reduction of our
    soldiers in Iraq. We are proud to be the third country in
    terms of number of soldiers in peacekeeping operations. We
    are the third after the US, after the UK, we are third. And
    also in Iraq our contingent of 3,300 men is the third, after
    the US and UK.

    End transcript segment.

    SEMBLER

`