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### Viewing cable 09ROME877, ITALY: MAKING POLITICAL HAY ABOUT ISAF MISSION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ROME877 | 2009-07-30 15:03 | 2011-03-08 11:11 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Rome

`

    VZCZCXRO0872
    OO RUEHSL
    DE RUEHRO #0877/01 2111524
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 301524Z JUL 09 ZDK
    FM AMEMBASSY ROME
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2470
    INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0521

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000877

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019
    TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO IT AF

    SUBJECT: ITALY: MAKING POLITICAL HAY ABOUT ISAF MISSION

    Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Elizabeth Dibble.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and
     (d).

    ¶1.  C)Summary: Lega Nord Leader Bossi grabbed an opportunity
    afforded by what was supposed to be a routine vote to call
    for a political level discussion on the ISAF mission in
    Afghanistan and Italy's continued involvement.  Citing the
    high cost of the mission and increasing NATO casualties,
    Bossi assessed that the objectives of the mission - bringing
    democracy and prosperity to Afghanistan - were probably
    unachievable even with greater sacrifices.  Bossi's surprise
    intervention was quickly echoed by the center-left Italy of
    Values (IdV) party, with its parliamentary group leader
    calling for a review of Italy's approach after Afghanistan's
    August 20 elections. Defense Minister LaRussa, backed by the
    Prime Minister, reaffirmed Italy's commitment to the ISAF
    mission as part of the GOI's global strategy to combat
    terrorism.  Bossi's timing is largely driven by domestic
    political calculus - the need to demonstrate independence
    from Berlusconi and greater Lega Nord clout while not
    rupturing the coalition before March 2010 regional elections.
     But the discussion does tap into broad unease and the
    apparent spreading violence in Afghanistan, recent Italian
    casualties, and the expectation that there will be more.  End
    Summary.

    Bossi: Time to Review ISAF Mission
    ----------------------------------

    ¶2. SBU) Northern League President Umberto Bossi took
    advantage of what was supposed to be a appropriations vote
    for Italy's overseas missions to launch a broad debate on the
    utility and future of Italian military participation,
    particularly in Afghanistan.  The bill - which goes to a vote
    on July 30 or 31 and is expected to pass - simply provides
    the resources to follow through on the Overseas Mission
    decree that was unanimously endorsed by the Chamber of
    Deputies on July 23.

    ¶3. SBU)In comments on July 25, Bossi noted that in light of
    the rising casualties, increasing violence, and escalating
    costs, Italy should consider bringing its troops home, not
    just from Afghanistan but from a number of overseas missions,
    including KFOR and UNIFIL.  He also questioned whether the
    objectives of bringing democracy and economic development to
    Afghanistan were realistic. Bossi's blunt call was picked up
    across the aisle by the leftist Italy of Values (IdV) party
    headed by Antonio DiPietro who said that he opposed ""moving
    from defending the local population to waging war ...
    especially when good intentions have crumbled.""  After an
    outcry from within the government, and from PdL and most
    opposition parties, both Lega and the IdV ""refined"" their
    position, noting that they intended to support the funding
    legislation but that the changing nature of the situation on
    the ground in Afghanistan, including the Kabul government's
    failure to deliver and the increased Taliban threat to
    Italian and international forces argued for a political
    discussion of the appropriate level of Italian engagement.
    Noting a need to reassess after ""eight years of war,"" IdV
    group leader Massimo Donadi called for a broader political
    discussion after Afghanistan's August 20 elections.

    LaRussa: Italy Committed in Afghanistan
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶4. SBU) Defense Minister LaRussa strongly rebutted the
    skepticism about the mission, calling the ISAF mission
    ""unrenounceable and indispensable."" In his July 28 briefing
    to the Chamber of Deputies, he underscored that the mission
    had not changed - that the ISAF presence was necessary for
    reconstruction and democratization to take hold - and that
    Italy would stay until the job was done.  He also detailed
    short term plans to enhance the effectiveness of the Italian
    effort.  In addition to 400 troops for election security and
    100 Carabienieri to train Afghan police, Italy plans to add
    two Mangusta helicopters to the six already there, increase
    the number of Predators, and substitute Linces with more
    secure Freccia armored vehicles.  LaRussa reiterated his
    previous statements that he was lifting restrictions on
    Italy's Tornado aircraft and that they would be allowed to
    use their cannons to provide close air support as needed.
    Prime Minister Berlusconi echoed LaRussa's comments, noting
    that Italy had no intention
    of changing its position on Afghanistan and chiding Bossi,
    noting that his party had unanimously supported the
    authorization for the missions in a July 23 vote. In comments
    to PdL parliamentarians on July 29, Berlusconi was more
    conciliatory, telling them that it would be appropriate to
    discuss Italy's long-term ""exit stretagy"" after the Afghan
    Presidential vote, but he stressed ""only in coordination with
    our partners.""

    ROME 00000877  002 OF 002

    Finite Forces, Finite Money
    ---------------------------

    ¶5. C) Italy maintains three deployments of over 2,000
    soldiers apiece -- UNIFIL, KFOR, and ISAF  -- and is trying
    to find new forces in a tight manpower and budgetary
    environment.  The GOI has pushed for a gradual draw down of
    forces in Kosovo next year which will help its bottom line
    and may free up troops for Afghanistan.  Italy's current
    command of the UNIFIL operation is a major factor in the size
    of its contribution.  MOD LaRussa's foreign policy advisor,
    Alessandro Ruben, told us July 28 that if Italy hands over
    command of UNIFIL to Spain next year, it expects to cut its
    forces as well (septel).  Ruben also stressed that Bossi --
    who has a visceral dislike for foreign deployments -- is
    making common cause with Italy's powerful and
    independent-minded Finance Minister Tremonti who also thinks
    they are a bad deal for Italy's core interests. By calling
    for a cost-benefit analysis of its overseas obligations,
    Bossi is serving notice of Lega's determination to get its
    share of financing for projects it cares more deeply about,
    including fiscal federalism and immigration issues.

    Afghanistan: Creeping Doubt
    ---------------------------

    ¶6. C) Bossi and DiPietro are tapping into a growing Italian
    unease about the course of the conflict in Afghanistan.
    Since the spring, Italian forces appear to have taken on a
    more aggressive posture and sought engagements with Taliban
    forces in RC-West but have also come under more regular
    attack.  The Italian press has also extensively covered the
    U.S. build up, the increases in Taliban strikes, and the
    mounting NATO casualties. The death of a paratrooper on July
    14, the first combat death since Berlusconi returned to
    office in the Spring of 2008, has brought the issue to the
    forefront of discussions.  With Italian forces now regularly
    engaged in firefights - extensively covered in the press and
    commented upon by the government - the image of ISAF as
    primarily a peacekeeping mission is eroding. The U.S.
    build-up, our focus on the degrading situation in Pakistan,
    and the launching of large new operations has fueled an image
    of a situation slipping out of control. Both Bossi and
    DiPietro seized on President Obama's comments about working
    towards an ""exit strategy"" as a pretext to propose a rush to
    the door. FM Frattini's Chief of Staff, Alain Economides told
    Charge July 29 that ""we don't have a problem for now.""
    However, he and Ruben noted that the public spin could veer
    sharply.

    Posturing for Regional Elections
    --------------------------------

    ¶7.  C) Comment: The timing of Bossi's outburst has far more
    to do with domestic political calculation. With the G8 and
    European elections now over, the Northern League and
    Berlusconi's PdL are in open competition for the same voters
    in the March 2010 regional elections.  Coming off a very
    strong showing in the European Parliament elections, Bossi is
    both demonstrating his independence from Berlusconi and is
    also seeking greater leverage within the current coalition.
    While Afghanistan is a non-issue for Lega's core supporters,
    Bossi is actively trying to lure working class voters who
    have in the past backed the flailing leftist parties across
    the divide.  Taking an anti-militarist stance burnishes his
    appeal.  Most of Italy's regional president posts are up for
    election next Spring and Bossi is keen to ensure that Lega
    Nord has the edge in the competition for the key posts
    against its PdL coalition partner.  Reminding Berlusconi,
    with whom he works very well, of his growing relative power
    aids that effort. End Comment.

    DIBBLE
    "

`