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### Viewing cable 07THEHAGUE935, ISA (FORMERLY ILSA): DUTCH AND SHELL ON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07THEHAGUE935 | 2007-05-16 13:01 | 2011-01-20 07:07 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy The Hague

`

    VZCZCXRO7101
    OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHROV
    DE RUEHTC #0935/01 1361346
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 161346Z MAY 07
    FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9186
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 0086
    RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 2731
    RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1996
    RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN PRIORITY 4080
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0427
    RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 2653
    RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1007
    RUEHKL/AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR PRIORITY 0159
    RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 1719
    RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0581
    RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 4967
    RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 5143
    RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1758
    RUEHBAD/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 0003
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 0003

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000935

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/UBI (RREITER)
    STATE ALSO FOR EB/ESC (JEIGHMIE), NEA/IR (HWOOSTER)

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017
    TAGS: ETTC PREL ENRG EPET NL IR
    SUBJECT: ISA (FORMERLY ILSA): DUTCH AND SHELL ON
    INVESTMENTS IN IRAN

    REF: STATE 47688

    Classified By: Economic Section Chief Karen Enstrom,
    reasons 1.4 (b and d).

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. A Shell official confirmed the company
    does not expect to make any final investment decisions before
    mid-2008 or early 2009 on the Persian LNG and Yadavaran gas
    and oil investment projects in Iran. Dutch Foreign Ministry
    officials noted surprise with the Iranian announcement of a
    faster timetable for a deal with the Chinese oil firm Sinopec
    on Yadavaran. These officials reiterated that Shell
    regularly briefs them on its activities in Iran. END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. (C) Econoff discussed on April 17 reftel points
    regarding USG concerns and opposition to oil and gas
    investments in Iran with Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs
    (MFA) officials Daphne Bergsma, Acting Head of the Gulf
    States Division in the North Africa and Middle East
    Department, and Loek ten Hagen, Senior Policy Officer and
    Desk Officer for Iran in the same department. On May 3,
    Econoffs also raised reftel points with John Crocker, Head of
    Royal Dutch Shell's International Government Relations and
    Senior Advisor for North Africa, Middle East, Central Asia,
    Ukraine, and Russia, and Lynn Azar, Shell's Regional Advisor
    for the Middle East and North Africa.

    ---------------------------------------
    MFA Surprised By Iranian Announcement
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Bergsma said recent press statements from Iranian
    Oil Minister Vaziri Hamaneh on an impending final investment
    deal with Chinese oil firm Sinopec on developing the
    Yadavaran field had taken the GONL by surprise. Recent
    information from officials from Shell, which has an interest
    in developing Yadavaran with Sinopec, had indicated a final
    decision would not occur until 2008 or later, she added.
    Officially, she said, the GONL did not interfere in Shell's
    decision-making process. Nonetheless, Shell officials had
    assured the MFA that the company would consider all factors
    -- including political -- prior to any final investment
    decision. Ten Hagen confirmed the MFA was in regular contact
    with Crocker on Shells' Iran activities.

    ---------------------
    Shell's Iran Strategy
    ---------------------

    ¶4. (C) With expected declines in European gas and oil
    production, decreased reliability of Russian supplies, few
    viable alternatives, increasing reliance on natural gas, and
    long development cycles for energy projects (up to ten
    years), Crocker said Shell had concluded that stable future
    energy prices were dependent on outside investment in Iran
    and the pursuit of big projects. While Shell had no plans
    at present to increase its involvement beyond the Persian LNG
    (South Pars), Yadavaran, and other projects aimed at helping
    Gulf countries overcome supply challenges, Crocker said the
    company still needed to think strategically now in
    preparation for any future investments. He said a May 1998
    decision by the USG to waive Iran-Libya Sanction Act (ILSA)
    sanctions for France's Total, Russia's Gazprom, and
    Malaysia's Petronas had led Shell to believe future Iran
    energy projects would also receive similar waivers.

    ¶5. (C) Crocker reiterated that Shell was fully aware of USG
    concerns about investments in Iran's oil and gas sector and
    the potential harm caused by public announcements at this
    sensitive time. He emphasized the importance of delivering
    similar messages to the Chinese regarding Sinopec. He said

    THE HAGUE 00000935 002 OF 002

    Shell was also following closely all pending Congressional
    legislation that might tighten Iran Sanction Act (ISA)
    implementation.

    ¶6. (C) Crocker stressed that Shell regularly briefs
    relevant governments and the EU, including Commission
    President Jose Barroso. According to Crocker, Barroso and
    other EU governments were less concerned about Shell's
    exploratory activities in Iran. There was a need to balance
    political concerns with the freedom of business to operate,
    he added.
    --------------------------------------------- -
    Persian LNG: No Final Decision Before Mid-2008
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶7. (C) Under the initial September 2004 framework agreement
    between Shell and Iran, a final Persian LNG investment
    decision was expected by 2006, Crocker explained. He said
    Shell now anticipated that a final decision was not likely
    before mid-2008, although the Iranians still hoped for a
    decision by the end of 2007. Some elements of the agreement
    continued to move forward, Crocker acknowledged, as the
    parties tried to develop a shared timeline.

    ¶8. (C) Any final Shell investment decision would be based
    on such economic factors as the projected market, customers,
    financial aspects, and potential risks, Crocker said. Given
    changes in these factors since 2004, he indicated that the
    chances of concluding an investment decision based on the
    2004 framework agreement were slim. Moreover, the 2004
    agreement was negotiated at lower energy price levels, which
    Crocker suggested even Iran would have problems accepting at
    this stage. A renegotiation of the framework agreement would
    add another six months to any projected timetable, he added.

    ----------------------------------------
    Yadavaran: Final Decision In Early 2009?
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶9. (C) Crocker said it was hard to predict whether Shell
    would succeed in securing favorable terms from Iran for
    investing in Yadavaran. Shell had not yet agreed on a
    Yadavaran strategy, he added. If Shell did move forward on
    the project, he indicated that a framework agreement might be
    possible in late 2007, followed by a final investment
    decision in early 2009. He said he had noticed more urgency
    recently on the part of Iran in determining whether to pursue
    development of Yadavaran alone. Iran was also considering an
    option for 100 percent foreign ownership during development
    with a full transition back to the Iranian state following
    implementation, he noted.

    ¶10. (C) Crocker argued that Iran would develop Yadavaran
    with or without foreign involvement in order to maintain
    current oil production levels. With a six-year
    implementation and investment pay-back cycle, however, he
    said Iran would only begin to receive revenues from the
    project starting in 2015. Current investments thus would
    serve the Iranian people and the world of tomorrow, and not
    the Iran of today, he stressed. Western expertise could
    also serve to increase the extraction rate for Yadavaran by
    40 or 50 percent over ten years, rather than only 20 percent
    if Iran pursued Yadavaran alone, he added.
    ARNALL

`