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### Viewing cable 08CAIRO2543, SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL PETRAEUS' VISIT TO EGYPT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08CAIRO2543 | 2008-12-21 15:03 | 2010-12-13 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Cairo

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    VZCZCXRO1774
    OO RUEHROV
    DE RUEHEG #2543/01 3561526
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 211526Z DEC 08
    FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1193
    INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 002543

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    CENTCOM FOR GENERAL PETRAEUS FROM AMBASSADOR SCOBEY

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018
    TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MOPS EG
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL PETRAEUS' VISIT TO EGYPT

    REF: A. CAIRO 2175
    ¶B. CAIRO 2141

    Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey per 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (S/NF) Summary and Introduction: General Petraeus,
    welcome to Egypt. Your visit will be, I hope, the first in a
    regular process of dialogue and consultation with Egyptian
    leaders who view the U.S.-Egyptian security partnership as
    the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship. This visit
    provides an opportunity for you to assess the state of our
    military partnership and to identify new opportunities. To
    date, the U.S. investment in the Egyptian Armed Forces (over
    $36 billion since 1980) through the Foreign Military
    Financing (FMF) program has supported peace between Egypt and
    Israel and assured Egyptian support for extending peace to
    the rest of the Arab world. In addition, the Egyptian
    military has the potential to become interoperable with U.S.
    forces * capable of fighting side by side as they did in the
    1991 First Gulf War - and continues to provide critical Suez
    Canal and overflight access for U.S. military operations and
    to provide peacekeepers to regional and international
    conflict zones.

    ¶2. (S/NF) The United States has sought to interest the
    Egyptian military into expanding their mission in ways that
    reflect new regional and transnational security threats, such
    as piracy, border security, and counterterrorism. Egypt,s
    aging leadership, however, has resisted our efforts and
    remains satisfied with continuing to do what they have done
    for years: train for force-on-force warfare with a premium
    on ground forces and armor.

    ¶3. (S/NF) We have requested meetings with President Mubarak,
    Defense Minister Field Marshal Tantawi, EGIS Chief General
    Soliman, and Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit. The overall
    U.S.-Egyptian relationship has suffered in the past few
    years. The Egyptians have lost confidence in U.S. regional
    leadership. They believe that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was
    an unmitigated disaster that has unleashed Iranian regional
    ambitions and that the U.S. waited far too long to engage in
    Arab-Israeli peacemaking efforts. In addition, U.S. and
    Egyptian differences over the pace and direction of political
    reform have drained the warmth from the relationship on both
    sides. We believe President Mubarak would be interested in
    an early visit to Washington to consult with President Obama,
    in large part to try to begin repairing the relationship.
    End Summary.

    -------------------------------------------
    Mil-Mil Cooperation: In Need of Renovation
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶4. (S/NF) Mubarak and military leaders view the FMF program
    as the cornerstone of our security relationship and believe
    the $1.3 billion annual grant should be viewed as
    "untouchable compensation" for making peace with Israel. They
    complain that the parity between U.S. assistance to Israel
    and to Egypt has been destroyed as U.S. security assistance
    to Israel has climbed and theirs has remained fixed. We have
    come to take the U.S.-Egyptian security partnership for
    granted, but we should not underestimate its value to us and
    the region. Our partnership guarantees there can be no
    resumption of overt Arab-Israeli war and also provides
    valuable US military access to the Suez Canal and Egyptian
    airspace. We would not like to contemplate complications for
    U.S. regional interests should the U.S.-Egyptian bond be
    seriously weakened. Nevertheless, we recognize the
    backward-looking nature of Egypt,s military posture and
    believe that finding new, mutually agreed objectives could
    assure the continuation of our strategic ties with Egypt into
    the future.

    ¶5. (S/NF) Seventy-seven year old Field Marshall Tantawi, in
    office since 1991, has resisted any change to usage of FMF
    funding and has been the chief impediment to transforming the
    military,s mission to meet emerging security threats.
    During his tenure, the tactical and operational readiness of
    the Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) has decayed. But he retains
    Mubarak's support, and could easily remain in place for years
    to come. Tantawi will likely express his opposition to
    Congress conditioning military and economic assistance and
    will seek support in convincing Congress of Egypt's strategic
    importance. He will also make a case for the release of
    certain military systems such as the TOW IIB and F-15
    fighter aircraft.

    CAIRO 00002543 002 OF 003

    ¶6. (S/NF) You should assure Mubarak and Tantawi that Egypt
    remains a key U.S. ally, but that we would like to find new
    areas of cooperation that build on existing relationships but
    that look to meeting new threats. Such a development would
    help us defend the Egyptian FMF program by demonstrating its
    ongoing value.

    ¶7. (S/NF) Threats to this partnership exist. Although all
    previous Administrations and Congresses since Camp David have
    reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to a strategic U.S.-Egyptian
    relationship, the events of the last few years have made a
    few cracks in the foundations. Congressional concern about
    Egypt,s poor human rights and democracy record prompted the
    imposition in 2008 of conditions upon Egypt,s assistance
    program. Although the Secretary of State was given the right
    to waive the conditionality, the Egyptians view
    conditionality as "unacceptable." We are currently dealing
    with the conditionality issue for FY2009.

    ¶8. (S/NF) The potential for Congressional action that could
    affect Egyptian FMF/ESF funding, creates even greater reason
    for Egypt to begin to orient more of its military
    capabilities toward unconventional threats. The more
    Egyptian military cooperation can be viewed as backstopping
    U.S. military requirements in the region, the easier it is to
    defend the Egyptian assistance program on the Hill. Over the
    last year, we have engaged MOD leaders on developing shared
    objectives to address current threats, including border
    security, counter terrorism, civil defense, and
    peace-keeping. Our efforts thus far have met with limited
    success. After initially strong resistance, MOD supported
    the first phase of a $23 million FMF-funded counter-smuggling
    system soon to be installed on the Gaza-Egyptian border (ref
    A). You should encourage Tantawi to immediately approve the
    follow-on stages and stress the importance of using the
    knowledge gained from the seismic-acoustic equipment to
    destroy tunnels and break up arms smuggling rings.

    ¶9. (S/NF) One way to demonstrate Egypt's continued strategic
    importance is through shifting more FMF funding to address
    asymmetric threats like terrorism and improving border
    security along its long and porous borders. You should also
    stress with GOE interlocutors that our mil-mil relationship
    is much greater than the yearly flow of military assistance.
    Egypt could play a much more active
    and influential role in regional security issues, including
    supporting and training the Iraqi military, deploying more
    peace keeping troops to Sudan, joining neighbors in combating
    piracy, and stemming the flow of illegal migration. Another
    such concrete display of a more forward looking security
    strategy would be to support CENTCOM's efforts to re-invent
    BRIGHT STAR. Tantawi will lament the loss of large-scale
    BRIGHT STAR. You should stress that BRIGHT STAR continues to
    be an important strategic
    statement for the U.S. and its regional allies, and solicit
    his input for ways to make BRIGHT STAR more relevant.

    ----------------
    Regional Efforts
    ----------------

    ¶10. (S/NF) While the military remains inwardly focused,
    Mubarak and key Egyptian officials remain engaged on a number
    of regional issues. On Iraq, although President Mubarak
    remains deeply suspicious that Nuri Al Maliki answers to
    Tehran, other GOE officials have expressed increasing
    confidence that Iraq has turned a corner and may avoid civil
    war. Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit recently completed a
    successful trip to Baghdad in October (ref B) and is moving
    forward to reopen the Embassy in Baghdad. On the
    Israeli-Palestinian conflict, GOE efforts to facilitate
    intra-Palestinian reconciliation under the auspices of EGIS
    Chief General Soliman foundered in November due, in their
    view, to Iranian-Syrian meddling. On Iran, Egypt is concerned
    by rising Iranian influence in the region and has supported
    UN sanctions, but does not have a comprehensive strategy to
    counter Iran's regional momentum. The
    Egyptians have worked with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states
    to support Lebanese political and territorial sovereignty.

    ¶11. (S/NF) Egypt is a steadfast ally in the GWOT, and we
    maintain close cooperation on a broad range of
    counter-terrorism and law enforcement issues. We have a
    long-standing and productive relationship with EGIS and SSIS,
    the two Egyptian agencies that cover internal and regional

    CAIRO 00002543 003 OF 003

    terrorism issues. Through the Department of State's
    Anti-Terrorism Assistance program, we are working with SSIS
    to establish an anti-terror investigative unit, and also are
    in the beginning stages of a USG-funded community policing
    program that will include needed human rights training.

    -------------------------------
    Internal Politics and Economics
    -------------------------------

    ¶12. (C) Our fundamental political reform goal in Egypt
    remains democratic transformation, including the expansion of
    political freedom and pluralism, respect for human rights,
    and a stable and legitimate transition to the post-Mubarak
    era. Egyptian democracy and human rights efforts, however,
    are being suffocated, and Mubarak remains skeptical of our
    role in democracy promotion, lecturing us that any efforts to
    open up will result in empowering the Muslim Brotherhood
    (which currently holds 86 seats in Egypt's parliament).
    Mubarak now makes scant public pretense of advancing a vision
    for democratic change. An ongoing challenge remains balancing
    our security interests with our democracy promotion efforts.

    ¶13. (S/NF) Mubarak, who is now 80, is in solid health,
    notwithstanding a hearing deficit in his left ear. The next
    presidential elections are scheduled for 2011, and if Mubarak
    is still alive it is likely he will run again, and,
    inevitably, win. Despite incessant whispered discussions, no
    one in Egypt has any certainty about who will eventually
    succeed Mubarak, nor how the succession will happen. Mubarak
    himself seems to be trusting to God and the inertia of the
    military and civilian security services to ensure an orderly
    transition. The most likely contenders for next president
    are presidential son Gamal Mubarak (whose profile is
    ever-increasing at the ruling party), EGIS chief Omar
    Soliman, dark horse Arab League Secretary-General Amre
    Moussa, another old-guard regime insider, or an as-yet
    unknown military officer.

    ¶14. (C) Economic reform has been a success story, although
    Egypt still suffers from widespread and so far irremediable
    poverty affecting upwards of 35-40% of the population.
    Reforms in trade and tax policy, financial reform,
    privatization and increased transparency have led to 7%
    economic growth in the last fiscal year. Foreign investment
    increased from around $3 billion in 2005 to $11
    billion in the last year, mostly in the petroleum sector.
    Despite this success, significant problems remain, including
    20% inflation, high levels of poverty and unemployment, and
    endemic corruption. The effects of the global financial
    crisis on Egypt may not be as severe as elsewhere, as
    Egyptian banks operate very conservatively and have been
    spared involvement in risky financial products. The informal
    economy also provides a certain degree of resiliency to the
    economic picture. Nevertheless, as the economic crisis
    worsens, Egypt remains vulnerable as exports, Suez canal
    revenues, tourism, and remittances will reflect global
    trends.

    ¶15. (S/NF) U.S. economic assistance will drop from $415
    million in FY 2008 to $200 million annually for the next five
    years starting in FY 2009. The Egyptians are not pleased
    with the cut and have suggested several ways of using the
    assistance that would be difficult to get through Congress,
    such as debt relief. We would like to focus assistance on
    health care and education reform along with poverty
    alleviation. Negotiations are ongoing over use of future
    assistance funds.
    SCOBEY

`