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### Viewing cable 08ANKARA1217, TURKEY: COUP THWARTED OR REVENGE TAKEN?

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08ANKARA1217 | 2008-07-07 11:11 | 2011-03-19 15:03 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Ankara

`

    VZCZCXRO0879
    PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHAK #1217/01 1891126
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 071126Z JUL 08
    FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6760
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 4437
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5//
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
    RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH//
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU
    RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001217

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017
    TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
    SUBJECT: TURKEY: COUP THWARTED OR REVENGE TAKEN?

    REF: ANKARA 1194

    Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary.  As the shock wanes over the July 1 detention
    of over 20 people, including two senior retired military
    officers, in connection with the year-old Ergenekon
    investigation (reftel), most Turks view the developments as a
    worrisome escalation of the struggle between Kemalist
    ultranationalists and supporters of the Islam-oriented ruling
    Justice and Development Party (AKP).  In Ankara's
    supercharged atmosphere, Turks are awaiting release of the
    Ergenekon indictment before deciding whether the suspects,
    some held without formal charges for months, were determined
    coup plotters or pawns in the ongoing battle for political
    control.  Many predict the detentions, portrayed by much of
    the media as AKP's revenge, make the party's closure more
    likely.  A solid indictment will bolster government claims
    the judiciary has thwarted a dangerous conspiracy to topple
    Turkey's democratically elected government; a weak case will
    fuel accusations that police state tactics were used
    unjustifiably against AKP opponents in retaliation for the
    pending closure case.  While some view the Ergenekon suspects
    as a disgruntled group of AKP antagonists with more will than
    means to enact a coup, others portray the investigation as a
    bold effort to eliminate illegal gangs that have long
    obstructed Turkey's democratization.  Either scenario would
    burnish AKP's image, both as intended coup victim and
    courageous defender of Turkey's democracy.  If, however, the
    outcome is a flimsy indictment and a clumsy judicial process,
    it will discredit AKP and Erdogan, and disappoint those
    hoping Ergenekon is not just another reckless ploy in
    Turkey's political power struggle.  End summary.

    ¶2. (U) The move by Istanbul prosecutors to detain senior
    military officials (among others) allegedly implicated in a
    coup conspiracy is hailed by many as a rare attempt to hold
    coup plotters responsible.  "We have today's coup plotters
    because past coup leaders have not been tried," stated Sacit
    Kayasir, disbarred in 2000 for pursuing charges against 1980
    coup leader General Kenan Evren.  All sides have called for
    respect for the judicial process, though many are concerned
    that charges hve yet to be filed against any of the 49
    suspects detained during five previous raids since July 2007.
     AKP Vice Chairman Dengir Mir Mehmet Firat agreed those
    detained should have a fair trial, and urged the prosecutor
    to speed up the legal process.  AKP Whip Nihat Ergin told us
    the indictment has been delayed because the case is so
    complicated; three prosecutors have reviewed over six million
    pages of evidence linking this investigation to old, unsolved
    crimes.  "The indictment will clarify for the public that
    this is about a criminal organization," Ergin said.  An
    indictment, rumored to be 2500 pages, may be filed this week,
    once recently seized evidence is incorporated, according to
    Ergin.  Two retired generals and the Ankara Chamber of
    Commerce president, all detained July 1, were arrested after
    questioning over the weekend and are being held for trial,
    reportedly for establishing an organizing designed to provoke
    the public to revolt against the government.

    ¶3. (U) AKP leaders deny any link between the recent
    detentions and the AKP closure case, maintaining Turkey's
    independent judiciary moved against the Ergenekon suspects to
    prevent them from launching a plan to create chaos and
    overthrow the AKP government.  That the high-profile
    detentions occured during the chief prosecutor's July 1 oral
    arguments in the AKP closure case (septel), minimizing press
    coverage of the court session, was a coincidence, they
    contend.  Cumhuriyet columnist Cuneyet Arcayurek disagreed,
    stating, "It is in no way a coincidence such things are
    happening when the closure case is being heard at the
    constitutional court."  Whether or not a link exists, senior
    AKP MP Murat Mercan told us he expects the Ergenekon
    investigation will negatively impact the closure case,
    particularly because some media are depicting the Ergenekon
    suspects as defenders of the secular Republic.  Despite PM
    Erdogan's previous claim that the closure case was filed to
    curb the government's determination to pursue the Ergenekon
    investigation, many view the detentions as AKP's effort to
    suppress its adversaries.  AKP opponents were quick to
    criticize Firat's call to respect the judiciary's
    independence, pointing to AKP efforts to press the US, EU and
    others to influence the constitutional court in the closure

    ANKARA 00001217  002 OF 002

    case.  "I can only laugh at this statement," NTV News' Rusen
    Caker reportedly said, adding, "They made all possible
    interventions."

    ¶4. (U) While also noting the arrests coincided with the chief
    prosecutor's closure case oral argument, far-right
    Nationalist Action Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli urged
    his party group to await the outcome of the Ergenekon legal
    process.  "There are groups trying to create chaos in
    Turkey," he said, adding that it is in Turkey's best
    interests to remain cool-headed regarding the investigation.
    Bahceli blamed AKP and the PM for not tackling Turkey's
    issues with common sense and risking the country's future for
    Erdogan's "whims and obsessions."

    ¶5. (U) Erdogan's comments at AKP's July 1 parliamentary party
    group meeting were defiant without directly addressing the
    Ergenekon investigation or the closure case.  He emphasized
    AKP is the only address for a change in Turkey's politics,
    for Turkey's integration with the modern world and its full
    membership in the EU.  Those who resist EU membership and
    standards cannot tolerate Turkey moving toward
    democratization and cannot accept the will of the people, he
    said.  Turkey will develop despite all hurdles before it,
    Erdogan pledged, adding AKP will strive for democracy,
    justice and law.  "We have to work hard and act with common
    sense," he told AKP MPs.

    ¶6. (U) Land Forces Commander (and likely future Chief of
    Defense) General Basbug also urged Turks to be responsible,
    "imperturbable" and cautious.  President Gul echoed the call,
    saying he has been working to reduce the tensions and ensure
    Turkey emerges from the crisis even stronger.  In contrast,
    opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz
    Baykal charged the detentions stem from Erdogan's personal
    ambitions and indicated Turkey is drifting away from
    democracy and rule of law.  "This process has been going on
    for a year without an indictment.  Is this possible in a
    state of law?" Baykal asked, warning that a society of fear
    is being created in Turkey.  Baykal claimed the investiagtion
    is politically motivated and accused Erdogan of being the
    Ergenekon investigators' "spokesman" for announcing the
    investigation would end soon.  AKP's Firat retorted that
    Baykal was acting as the Ergenekon suspects' lawyer. "Baykal
    is trying to make it look like the suspects were detained
    because of their opposition to the government and not because
    of having participated in an illegal organization resorting
    to methods outside the law," Firat said.

    ¶7. (C) Comment: Most Turks agree if the Ergenekon suspects
    are guilty, they should be punished.  But they want to see
    the indictment before deciding whether or not this is a
    genuine effort to crack down on illegal organizations or
    ultranationalists within the state ready to take the law into
    their own hands.  Given the failure of previous attempts to
    hold coup plotters accountable, the prosecutor will need the
    government's continued backing and strong political will to
    see the prosecutions through to convictions, a process that
    could take years.  Even if Ergenekon is only a house-cleaning
    of a disaffected few, the case could, if handled responsibly,
    strengthen Turkey's democractic process by demonstrating no
    one is above the law.  Such an outcome, accomplished with the
    cooperation (however grudging) of the judiciary and military,
    could be the government's most important reform to date.

    Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

    WILSON

`