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### Viewing cable 05PARIS8606, AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH KEY SARKOZY ADVISOR FRANCOIS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PARIS8606 | 2005-12-22 12:12 | 2010-11-30 21:09 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Paris

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 008606

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SOCI FR EUN
    SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH KEY SARKOZY ADVISOR FRANCOIS
    FILLON

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Sarkozy advisor and former Education
    Minister Francois Fillon told the Ambassador December 20 that
    Sarkozy had a chance to buck the French predisposition to
    vote against the ruling party in 2007 by focusing his
    presidential campaign on the electorate's deep-seated desire
    for real "change." Fillon argued that the victor in 2007
    would need to make the presidency more personally accountable
    and involved in explaining government policy to the populace.
    The EU, in Fillon's opinion, is struggling under the weight
    of new members, and it was time to bring the UK into the
    Franco-German union in order to move the body forward.
    Fillon believed transatlantic relations would be more cordial
    under a Sarkozy presidency; although disagreements would
    certainly arise, they would be handled in a more nuanced
    manner. Fillon elaborated on Sarkozy's plan to improve the
    French economy through welfare reform and greater flexibility
    for businesses, and offered his own views on needed changes
    for the French education system. End Summary.

    2007 Elections
    --------------
    ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador met December 20 with Francois
    Fillon, former Minister of Education (2004-2005) and Social
    Affairs, Labor, and Solidarity (2002-2004) in the Raffarin
    government, who was named in July 2005 to be the Political
    Counselor to Nicolas Sarkozy in his role as president of the
    Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). Fillon noted the
    instability of the French Fifth Republic compared to the
    governments of Germany and the UK, and commented that the
    French electorate always voted for change. This suggested
    that the Socialist Party (PS) should logically win in 2007,
    but Sarkozy had a chance because he was a strong proponent
    for change, whereas the PS had turned into a party of
    "restoration" of the status quo ante. He insisted that most
    French voters really do want change, although he conceded
    that they are also afraid of losing what they have. Chirac
    always erred on the side of French fears rather than a desire
    for change and Villepin's big liability would be that he is
    seen as a continuation of Chirac. Sarkozy, by contrast, was
    betting that people really wanted reform.

    ¶3. (SBU) Fillon believed that Sarkozy would remain in the
    government until January of 2007, when the UMP would
    officially nominate its presidential candidate, at which time
    he would break with Chirac/Villepin to run for the
    presidency. He said that Chirac and Villepin would do
    everything possible in the meantime to trip him up. The
    recent unrest in the suburbs had not hurt Sarkozy, Fillon
    noted, because he was seen as taking action on the issue.
    Fillon did not foresee a cohabitation government, saying,
    "The people will choose a president and give him a majority"
    in Parliament.

    Institutional Reform
    --------------------
    ¶4. (SBU) Elaborating on his statement that the French Fifth
    Republic is inherently "unstable," Fillon said there was a
    need to move to a presidential system in which the president
    would have to take a more active role in explaining the
    government's actions to the people and the parliament. (The
    only such public appearance by Chirac was his disastrous Town
    Hall-style appearance in early May in favor of the EU
    Constitution.) While there were also arguments in favor of a
    more parliamentary system, Fillon said that it would be
    impossible to convince the French electorate to abandon the
    election of a president by universal suffrage. Nor was in
    possible any longer for the president to remain above the
    fray, he said, then blame everything on the PM. The move to
    a five-year presidential term of office had reinforced this
    trend. He characterized what he said was a PS plan to weaken
    the powers of the presidency in favor of the prime minister
    as "unrealistic."

    The EU
    ------
    ¶5. (SBU) The EU currently suffered from a lack of direction
    and leadership, Fillon said. He explained that enlargement
    was the main problem, which made it difficult to take
    decisions efficiently. "We can hardly express ourselves in
    meetings" with 25 members, he lamented, since there was no
    time to take the floor more than once. In order to move the
    EU forward, Fillon saw a need to expand the Franco-German
    "couple" into a Franco-Germano-British "menage a trois." His
    basic point was that it was hollow to think that Europe could
    progress without the UK. He saw the emergence of Angela
    Merkel as positive, while commenting that Chirac was trying
    to make his relationship with her appear closer than it was
    in the vane of the mythical Franco-German tandem. Returning
    to his analysis of the French electorate, Fillon argued that
    the May 29 French referendum vote was not a rejection of
    change or Europe, but in fact a vote for a more radical
    overhaul of the system. This coincided with the tendency of
    the French to vote against the current government, which had
    backed the EU Constitution. However, Fillon conceded this
    was his interpretation, and that it was difficult at the
    moment to accurately draw conclusions from the referendum
    vote.

    U.S.-French Relations
    ---------------------
    ¶6. (SBU) Fillon thought a Sarkozy government would better be
    able to work together with the U.S., and be less overtly
    critical and more nuanced in its public statements. Under
    Sarkozy, he continued, disagreements would not as easily lead
    to blow-ups with close and vital allies. At the same time,
    he cautioned, this would not change the very real
    anti-American sentiments of some parts of the French
    populace. In response to the Ambassador's comment that
    France is perceived as an obstacle to U.S. ambitions for
    NATO, Fillon noted that there needed to be a better balance
    in NATO between Europe and the U.S. First, however, he said
    that Europeans themselves needed to be clearer about their
    priorities. Separately, Fillon noted that Sarkozy did not
    necessarily see the need for high levels of defense spending.

    Economy
    -------
    ¶7. (SBU) On economic issues, Fillon called for fusing
    welfare with unemployment so that the unemployed would be
    more compelled to take jobs they were offered. He noted that
    a Sarkozy economic system would push for more flexibility for
    businesses and a simplification of the work codes. He also
    advocated breaking the power of unions, including requiring
    that elections be held every several years with open
    candidacies.

    Education
    ---------
    ¶8. (SBU) Fillon spoke at length about giving schools more
    autonomy (citing this as yet another area where Europe was
    falling behind), but stopped short of recommending
    decentralization. He criticized the burdensome bureaucracy
    of the education system and lamented that the short time that
    leaders remain in power limited their ability to effect
    change. Increasing immigration required adaptation of the
    system, but France had avoided such adjustments. He thought
    universities should become independent, and that communes
    should assume more responsibility for early education. He
    talked about using limited resources for overtime pay for
    those teachers willing and most able.

    Comment
    -------
    ¶9. (SBU) Fillon came across as a seasoned, non-dogmatic, and
    serious political figure. He appeared pragmatic,
    forthcoming, accessible, and open to continued dialogue. He
    has commented publicly on his disappointment at not being
    included in the Villepin government because of his support of
    Sarkozy. Fillon is among Sarkozy's closest advisors, and is
    considered a potential prime ministerial candidate should
    Sarkozy be elected president in 2007. End Comment.

    Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

    Stapleton

`