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### Viewing cable 08BUENOSAIRES1493, ARGENTINE CENTRAL BANK AND ECONOMY MINISTRY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BUENOSAIRES1493 | 2008-10-30 16:04 | 2011-03-14 07:07 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Buenos Aires
Appears in these articles: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1357238-evaluaron-echar-a-la-argentina-del-g-20 http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1357239-gestiones-ante-el-gobierno-para-pedir-un-cambio

`

    VZCZCXRO9283
    OO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHTM
    RUEHVC
    DE RUEHBU #1493/01 3041625
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 301625Z OCT 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2369
    INFO RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS IMMEDIATE
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO IMMEDIATE 3820
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 001493

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2028
    TAGS: EFIN ECON PREL PGOV AR
    SUBJECT: ARGENTINE CENTRAL BANK AND ECONOMY MINISTRY
    PREPARATIONS FOR G-20 MEETING

    REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 1491
         ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 1469

    Classified By: Ambassador E.A. Wayne for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) The Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) is taking the lead
    on preparing briefing material for President Cristina
    Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK) participation in the November
    15 G-20 meeting, BCRA President Redrado told Ambassador
    October 24.  While not in a position to guarantee how CFK
    will use the BCRA input, Redrado stressed that the BCRA was
    recommending constructive positions.  Separately, Finance
    Secretary Hernan Lorenzino confirmed that he is coordinating
    with the BCRA on position papers, but must focus on dealing
    with the worsening internal financial crisis in Argentina, so
    Political Economy Secretary Martin Abeles will likely be
    Sous-Sherpa for the Economy Ministry.  The GoA is also
    seeking to coordinate positions with Brazil, to be discussed
    further during the November 8-9 Mercosur summit.  Cabinet
    Chief Sergio Massa told a U.S. citizen visitor that he had
    urged CFK to treat the G-20 meeting as a very special
    opportunity to demonstrate constructive leadership and to do
    so in the context of still seeking to pursue solutions with
    the Paris Club and private bondholders over Argentine debt.

    ¶2. (C) Regarding the IMF's proposal at the recent G-20
    meeting to offer currency swaps for countries in distress,
    Redrado noted that he had pushed for no or limited conditions
    for the first tranche of currency swaps to emerging market
    economies, after which the IMF can ratchet up required
    preconditions.  However, IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn
    announced October 29 that Argentina does not qualify for the
    program.  End Summary.

    --------------------------
    BCRA Preparations for G-20
    --------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Ambassador Wayne met October 24 with BCRA President
    Redrado to discuss the upcoming G-20 meeting, the GoA's
    recent announcement that it would nationalize the private
    pension system, and the resulting implosion of Argentina's
    financial market (the latter two reported Ref A).  Because
    the Economy Ministry has been decimated by frequent personnel
    changes over the last year, Redrado said, the BCRA has been
    tasked with the lead on preparing paper for CFK's
    participation in the November 15 G-20 meeting.  To this end,
    BCRA Vice President Miguel Angel Pesce has worked closely
    with the Economy Ministry's Finance Secretary, Hernan
    Lorenzino, to coordinate the work.

    ¶4. (C) While he could not guarantee that the President would
    rely on the BCRA's input during the November 15 meeting,
    Redrado reassured Ambassador that the BCRA and Economy
    Ministry papers will take reasonable positions.  Redrado said
    the Embassy should consider him as a conduit to the President
    on G-20 related issues, and emphasized the importance of the
    G-20 to Argentina, since it is the only important forum that
    accepts Argentina as a member.

    ----------------------------------
    Economy Ministry G-20 Coordination
    ----------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) EconCouns called Finance Secretary Lorenzino October
    29 to brief him on G-20 logistics and alert him that the
    Summit communiqu/statement will be negotiated in advance
    using both a capital-to-capital Sherpa channel and a Finance
    Ministry deputy channel.

    ¶6. (SBU) Lorenzino confirmed that his Finance Secretariat has
    been coordinating position papers with the BCRA.  However,
    while he would normally be the appropriate Finance Ministry
    Deputy channel, he said he is ""being pulled in 20 different
    directions"" by the impact of the global financial crisis, and
    specifically by domestic financial and currency market
    responses to the GoA's bid to nationalize the private pension
    funds.  As a result, Political Economy Secretary Martin
    Abeles will likely assume the role of Sous-Sherpa during the
    run-up to the G-20.

    ¶7. (SBU) The seventh Extraordinary Meeting of the Mercosur

    BUENOS AIR 00001493  002 OF 003

    Council was October 27, and Lorenzino said that the GoA
    presented a working paper to urge the Brazilians to explore a
    coordinated approach to the G-20.  Lorenzino anticipates that
    further coordination and discussion will not take place
    during the October 30 Ibero)American summit in Sao Paulo,
    but rather during the November 8-9 Mercosur head of state
    summit in Sao Paulo.  Lorenzino emphasized the obligation of
    Brazil and Argentina to ""represent"" the greater interests of
    other Latin American countries not sitting at the G-20 table.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------
    Redrado Take On IMF's New Short-Term Liquidity Facility
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶8. (C) Redrado mentioned that he had spoken on October 24 to
    IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn to urge him to
    consider limiting preconditions necessary to gain access to
    the IMF's planned liquidity facility (which the Strauss-Kahn
    announced formally October 29).  Redrado said he had been one
    of the first to propose IMF currency swaps (during an earlier
    G-20 meeting), and at the time he had argued that many
    countries with solid macroeconomic policies, but also with
    current account deficits, were facing speculative attacks on
    their currencies.  However, he was concerned that the IMF was
    going to set the criteria for access to such a facility so
    tight (e.g., no recent borrowing, a current Article IV) that
    only a few countries from Latin America would qualify.
    (Redrado mentioned Chile as an example.)  He said that during
    his conversation with Strauss-Kahn he had pushed for not
    attaching conditions to the first three-month tranche of
    currency swaps to emerging market economies, after which the
    IMF could begin to apply stricter preconditions for access to
    the lending facility.

    ¶9. (SBU) Strauss-Kahn announced the IMF's new Short-Term
    Liquidity Facility October 29, stating that it will offer
    quick-disbursing financing for ""countries with strong
    economic policies that are facing temporary liquidity
    problems in the global capital markets.""  According to the
    IMF's release, the IMF does not seem to have accepted all of
    Redrado's recommendations, because the facility will use
    employ conditionality as part of the prequalification for
    access to the facility, listing as eligible recipients
    ""countries with track records of sound policies, access to
    capital markets and sustainable debt burdens.  Policies
    should have been assessed very positively by the IMF in its
    most recent Article IV discussions.""  During Strauss-Kahn's
    press conference, he said the facility would be limited to a
    discrete and small group.  Moreover, in response to a
    reporter's follow-up question on Argentina, he clarified that
    Argentina would not qualify for the program.  (Comment: This
    disqualification is due at least in part to Argentina's delay
    of Article IV discussions for well over a year.  Argentina
    was the only unqualified country that Strauss-Kahn mentioned
    by name.)

    --------------------------------
    CFK and Cabinet Minister on G-20
    --------------------------------

    ¶10. (C) On October 29, a prominent U.S. citizen recounted to
    the Ambassador her conversations with President CFK and
    Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa on October 28 and 29,
    respectively.  The U.S. citizen, who has a long relationship
    with CFK, said the President was honored and enthused with
    the invitation to the November 15 gathering.  CFK said she
    had communicated with Brazilian President Lula da Silva and
    the two intended to coordinate closely on positions for the
    meeting.  The U.S. citizen commented that this was good news
    as it would presumably keep CFK to more responsible
    positions.  CFK also said she still intended to proceed with
    efforts to solve Argentina's debts to Paris Club creditors
    and to private (""Holdout"") bondholders, when the
    international situation permits.  Separately, Massa told the
    U.S. citizen that he had spent a good deal of time arguing to
    CFK that the November 15 summit was a very special
    opportunity to build confidence among other leaders and to
    prepare the ground for future resolution of Argentina's debt
    issues and develop new economic ties in the future.  Massa
    also confirmed to the U.S. citizen CFK's commitment to
    resolve Paris Club and Holdout issues.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    BUENOS AIR 00001493  003 OF 003

    ¶11. (C) Post will touch base with Secretary Martin Abeles and
    BCRA VP Pesce regularly in coming days to get a better sense
    of how the GoA plans to approach the next few weeks of
    regional and international financial crisis response
    coordination discussions, with a view to reducing the
    likelihood of Argentine bomb-throwing during the G-20.
    WAYNE

`