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### Viewing cable 10SANJOSE19, COSTA RICA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN HITS ITS FINAL LEG

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10SANJOSE19 | 2010-02-02 15:03 | 2011-03-17 18:06 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy San Jose

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712620.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712631.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712622.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-17/Investigacion/NotasSecundarias/Investigacion2712633.aspx

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHSJ #0019/01 0331501
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 021501Z FEB 10
    FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0312
    INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

` `

    UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000019

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS
    DEPT FOR WHA/CEN
    INR

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM CS
    SUBJECT: COSTA RICA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN HITS ITS FINAL LEG

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With national elections a week away, Laura
    Chinchilla of the ruling National Liberation Party (PLN) is holding
    on to first place in the race to be Costa Rica's next president.
    Most observers believe she will win more than the required forty
    percent needed to win the election in the first round, and handily
    defeat her two primary challengers.  Polls suggest that while PLN
    will retain a plurality within the Legislative Assembly, the body
    will become more fractionalized following the February 7 elections.
    In pre-election visits to important population centers, embassy
    teams found perceptions of rising crime, unemployment and growing
    voter apathy to be the primary concerns of voters.  Post will send
    fifteen staff members to visit various polling places on election
    day.  Regardless of the victor, we expect the GOCR to continue to
    be a constructive partner with the USG on our domestic and regional
    priorities.  End Summary.

    Laura Standing Firm

    ¶2. (SBU) A series of recent polls has shown Laura Chinchilla's
    support holding steady at 43-45 percent of the vote, only a week
    before national elections.  Though she couldn't claim a clear
    victory in any of Costa Rica's three televised debates, the steady
    Chinchilla held her own and put in relatively mistake-free
    performances.  With her steady polling numbers and the ruling
    National Liberation Party's (PLN) grassroots organization and
    ability to get out the vote, almost seventy percent of Costa Ricans
    expect Chinchilla to become Costa Rica's next president, according
    to a recent poll.

    ¶3. (SBU) Chinchilla's two main challengers, Otto Guevara from the
    Libertarian Movement (ML) and Otton Solis from the Citizens Action
    Party (PAC), have been unable to inflict damage on the frontrunner
    in recent weeks.  Guevara had previously looked as if he might
    provide a true challenge to Chinchilla, and had been polling as
    high as thirty percent.  However, Chinchilla, Solis and other
    candidates have recently focused on questioning Guevara's
    questionable sources of campaign funding and libertarian policy
    ideas (including an idea to "dollarize" the economy, which Solis
    ripped to shreds in a recent debate).  The results have seen
    Guevara slipping a bit in the polls while Solis picks up some
    support, though not nearly enough to challenge Chinchilla.

    Legislative Assembly

    ¶4. (SBU) The picture is a bit more muddled in the 57-seat
    Legislative Assembly, where Costa Rica uses a complicated
    mathematical formula to award Assembly seats to parties based on
    the number of votes received by province.  The PLN should remain
    the plurality party and win around 23-25 seats, however unlike in
    years past there will be no single, large opposition party.   The
    ML and PAC should make up the second and third largest parties, but
    with only around 13 and 8 seats respectively, with the near defunct
    Social Christian Union Party (PUSC) and other smaller parties
    splitting the remaining 11 seats.

    ¶5. (SBU) In all likelihood, the PLN will have to form partnerships
    with some of the minority parties to accomplish any real progress
    in the Assembly (a simple majority of 29 votes is needed for most
    votes, though some require a super-majority of 38).  Political
    commentators have speculated that the centrist PUSC might serve as
    a natural partner in the Assembly, where the two parties have
    cooperated in the past.  However PUSC presidential candidate Luis
    Fishman (currently polling at 8-9 percent), who is also a candidate
    for the Assembly, recently told us that while ideologically PUSC
    and PLN have much in common, PUSC has been punished by voters in
    the past for working together with the PLN. (NOTE: The parties are
    bitter rivals stemming from the Costa Rica's 1948 civil war, and
    many PUSC/PLN supporters have viewed past collaboration between
    their parties as an example of the corruption of their political
    elites. END NOTE.)  That said, Fishman has made it clear both
    publicly and in private that he would favor a Chinchilla victory

    over that of Otto Guevara, and privately told us he would endorse
    Chinchilla in the event of a second round match-up between the two.

    Run-off not likely, but...

    ¶6. (SBU) Though unlikely, if Chinchilla were to come in under the
    forty percent mark, she would face the second place vote-getter-in
    all probability Otto Guevara-in an April 4th run-off.  Yet most
    political analysts believe that even in this case Chinchilla would
    win the run-off election, as at a base level Guevara is simply too
    conservative/libertarian for Costa Rica.  Among other proposals, he
    would scale back or completely abolish the central bank after
    dollarizing the economy, eliminate federal funding of universities,
    and cut public spending on Costa Rica's health care system.  Thus,
    the other candidates could hold their noses and lend their support
    to Chinchilla in the event of a run-off.

    Election Reporting and Observing

    ¶7. (U) Throughout December and January post organized a series of
    nine visits of Mission personnel to various important population
    centers to meet with local leaders regarding their thoughts on the
    elections.  Two-person teams met with local mayors, national
    assembly candidates, religious leaders, journalists, university
    professors and businessmen to find out what issues were most
    important to voters in their areas, and how they saw the elections
    playing out locally and nationally.  The local leaders our teams
    met with consistently described ongoing perceptions of rising crime
    and worries over unemployment to be two of the primary voter
    concerns.  Those we met with were also concerned with rising voter
    apathy despite what they saw as an increase in campaign spending in
    this year's election.  Most of those we met with believed that
    Laura Chinchilla and the PLN would win the elections, though the ML
    and PAC had strong pockets of support in many of the areas we
    visited.

    ¶8. (U) The Embassy will be sending out fifteen staff members to
    visit over thirty polling stations on election day.  Though the OAS
    and a few other international missions are also sending out small
    observing teams, the bulk of monitors/observers will be from the
    major political parties and domestic non-governmental
    organizations.

    Comment

    ¶9. (SBU) If Chinchilla, who served as President Oscar Arias' Vice
    President until declaring her candidacy in 2008, goes on to win the
    election it could provide continuity for GOCR programs.  We expect
    her to continue to work with the USG to address security issues
    (and one of her campaign promises has been to increase spending on
    security), Costa Rica's environmental and energy challenges, and
    continued economic development, among other issues.  The Georgetown
    University graduate and former USAID contractor has said that she
    hopes to continue to improve relations between the U.S. and Costa
    Rica, and has expressed particular interest in working with the
    Secretary on international women's issues.  However, regardless of
    the victor of Sunday's elections, we expect the GOCR to continue to
    be a constructive partner with the USG on our domestic and regional
    priorities.
    ANDREW

`