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### Viewing cable 04MADRID4777, POPULAR PARTY FORESEES ECONOMIC CHALLENGES AHEAD

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04MADRID4777 | 2004-12-20 17:05 | 2010-12-16 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Madrid

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    201755Z Dec 04

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 004777

    SIPDIS

    TREASURY PASS TRACI PHILLIPS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2012
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EAGR ETRD TBIO SP
    SUBJECT: POPULAR PARTY FORESEES ECONOMIC CHALLENGES AHEAD
    FOR SPAIN

    Classified By: Economic Counselor Whitney Baird for reasons 1.4 (b) and
    (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition Popular Party's Economic
    Spokesperson in Parliament Miguel Arias Canete predicted 2005
    would be a good year for Spain, but that beginning in 2006
    Spain's economy would sour and imperil Spain's Socialist
    government. He declared strong respect for Minister of
    Economy and Finance Pedro Solbes and the economic team, but
    noted that Solbes faces strong challenges in shepherding
    Spain's budget and economy in a cabinet of more radical
    political heavyweights. Arias Canete expressed sympathy with
    respect to our biotech position, noting that he was a strong
    proponent of biotechnology during his previous position as
    Minister of Agriculture. He offered assistance with biotech
    issues with Spanish deputies in the European Parliament. End
    Summary.

    Economic Outlook
    ----------------

    ¶2. (U) Arias Canete characterized Spain's 2005 economic
    outlook as solid. He stated that the fiscal environment of
    stable spending growth and balanced budget was a gift to the
    Socialists (PSOE) from the previous Popular Party (PP)
    government. However, he noted Spain's inflation rate of
    about 1.3 percent higher than the EU average as an area of
    concern. He also noted that since Spain was an EU member and
    EU monetary policy was predicated on the sluggish German
    economy, Spain would not be able to use monetary policy to
    curb its inflation. Cheap interest rates have contributed to
    the steep rise in Spanish housing prices in the past few
    years.

    ¶3. (C) According to PP economic projections, although the
    outlook for 2005 is "solid", Spain's economy will slow
    significantly in 2006. Arias Canete believes a recession is
    probable and that the PSOE government will be forced to call
    early elections due to the resulting economic stress.

    Minister Solbes and the Economic Team
    -------------------------------------

    ¶4. (U) Arias Canete offered high praise for PSOE Minister of
    Economy and Finance Pedro Solbes. He noted Solbes' personal
    professional stature as a guardian of the European Monetary
    Union treaties in Brussels and for bringing France and
    Germany to court for breaking budget deficit rules. Arias
    Canete believes Solbes, with his EU experience, is truly
    committed to ensuring budgetary stability during his tenure.

    ¶5. (C) He was less certain, however, whether Minister Solbes
    would be able to maintain the support of President Zapatero
    and keep future efforts at increasing spending in line with
    his budgetary standards. According to Arias Canete's
    sources, Solbes is regularly opposed by the President's
    economic policy advisor Miguel Sebastian. Sebastian
    regularly announces new economic policy changes without
    Solbes' comment. Solbes also faces challenges in Zapatero's
    Cabinet. In the Spanish system, there are multiple cabinet
    levels. The first meeting each week the Secretary of State's
    meeting (note: equivalent to Deputies' Committee). According
    to Arias Canete, Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez, the
    Secretary of State for Economy and Budget is often

    SIPDIS
    outmaneuvered by Economic Advisor Miguel Sebastian at these
    meetings. Minister Solbes is then forced to try to overcome
    the decision of the Secretaries of State in the Council of
    Ministers. Arias Canete is not sure Solbes will continue to
    prevail in these battles, or that he will want to keep
    fighting if the economy sours.

    ¶6. (C) Regarding rumors that Solbes might not finish his
    entire term, Arias Canete noted that Solbes is a man of his
    word and that he is likely to keep his promise and serve
    throughout this government. However, if in future budgets
    the government pushes spending to a deficit level beyond 3
    percent, breaking the EMU standards, Mr. Solbes might
    consider resignation. Arias Canete noted (somewhat jokingly)
    that he would do everything he could to push Solbes out of
    office, because any PSOE replacement would be a much easier
    political target for the PP.

    Economic Reform on Hold
    -----------------------

    ¶7. (C) Arias Canete mentioned several areas where economic
    reform was necessary, but is convinced that the Socialist
    government is unable or unwilling to carry through. The key
    area for reform is the labor market. Arias Canete argued
    that the link between inflation and wages in Spain without
    any correlation to productivity needs to be broken. He also
    mentioned the need to improve competition in the marketplace,
    especially in telecoms and energy. Though the economic team
    may well support many of these changes, Arias Canete does not
    believe they will get much traction in the current
    government. He noted that most of the PSOE ministers are far
    more left-wing in their economic philosophy than the economic
    team and that President Zapatero is not a strong leader, but
    a compromiser unwilling to push a policy unpopular in his own
    party.

    Biotech
    -------

    ¶8. (U) Arias Canete sympathized with the U.S. position on
    biotech issues. He mentioned that he approved several seed
    varieties during his tenure as Minister of Agriculture. He
    also noted that he is being taken to court along with the
    succeeding PP Minister of Agriculture for approving biotech
    strains that could allegedly threaten the environment. Arias
    Canete believes that biotech crops are very important for
    Spain, noting that new strains of cotton are greatly desired
    by farmers in the south. He asked us to inform him of any
    biotech legislation of importance that passes through the
    European Parliament. He is willing to assist us by lobbying
    PP members in the European Parliament.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶9. (C) Arias Canete is clearly interested in maintaining
    close ties with the United States. He is a well-informed,
    articulate spokesperson for PP policies. He provided us with
    a number of concise, cogent PP position papers on economic
    issues. They show this group is serious, and views itself as
    only temporarily in opposition.
    MANZANARES

`