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### Viewing cable 10MILAN21, PRE-ELECTION LANDSCAPE: DOMINANT CENTER-RIGHT AND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10MILAN21 | 2010-02-17 07:07 | 2011-03-05 11:11 | CONFIDENTIAL | Consulate Milan

`

    VZCZCXRO5411
    PP RUEHFL RUEHNP
    DE RUEHMIL #0021/01 0480715
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 170715Z FEB 10
    FM AMCONSUL MILAN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1906
    INFO RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 9008
    RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE PRIORITY 0246
    RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES PRIORITY 0241

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MILAN 000021

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2020
    TAGS: IT PGOV PREL

    SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION LANDSCAPE: DOMINANT CENTER-RIGHT AND
    WEAK OPPOSITION IN THE VENETO

    Classified By: Consul General Carol Z. Perez for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
    .

    ¶1. SUMMARY:  (SBU) Heading into the March 28-29 regional
    elections, the political landscape in the Veneto, one of
    Italy's most politically and economically important regions,
    displays a dominant center-right coalition headed by a
    Northern League (LN) candidate and a weak and disorganized
    center-left opposition.  The Northern League party is strong
    and growing stronger both in relation to the opposition and
    within its center-right coalition, due to increasing popular
    support for hard-line positions on security and immigration;
    the election of LN Agricultural Minister Luca Zaia as the
    region's next president is a foregone conclusion.  The
    outcome of the regional election in the Veneto and elsewhere
    could change the balance of power between the LN and Popolo
    della Libert (Pdl), Prime Minister Berlusconi's ruling
    party.  In contrast to the center-right's strong and unified
    front, the center-left opposition is in disarray.  In
    addition to its almost certain loss in the upcoming regional
    contest, the center-left Democratic Party (PD) faces the
    potential loss of the mayorship of Venice, a position that it
    has held for over twenty years.

    Northern League:  Strong Venetian Roots, and Growing Stronger

    ¶2. (SBU) With gubernatorial elections coming up on March
    28-29, the Northern League (LN) party is in an extremely
    strong position in the economically and politically important
    Veneto region, both within its center-right coalition and
    vis--vis the center-left opposition.  The center-right
    coalition has chosen an LN candidate, current Agriculture
    Minister Luca Zaia, to stand for election next month and
    officials from both the center-right and from the
    center-left, composed primarily of the Democratic Party (PD),
    agree that the LN has outmaneuvered its opponents in the
    region, reading the popular mood and appealing to an
    ever-broadening segment of the electorate.

    ¶3. (SBU) Crucial to the LN's regional appeal is its
    connection to the territory and its use of a unique,
    sometimes crude political rhetoric that appeals to Veneto
    voters.  Home to the historically powerful and independent
    city-state of Venice, the Veneto maintains an identity that
    is proud of its achievements, especially in the economic
    realm, and is wary of outside interference.  Northern League
    founder and leader Umberto Bossi has successfully parlayed
    the LN's flagship issue, fiscal federalism, into a broader
    platform of security and protection from outside threats,
    linking the rise in immigration with crime, unemployment, and
    a general degradation of Italian cultural identity.  This
    political formula holds continued appeal for the LN's
    traditional electoral base, the small- and medium-sized
    business owners who make up the economic fabric of the
    Veneto, but this savvy platform fusing fiscal federalism and
    immigration has also had growing resonance with workers, a
    traditionally leftist bloc, whom LN leaders assert no longer
    feel ""protected"" by the PD and other parties.  The LN has
    made an increasingly convincing argument that unfairly high
    taxes imposed by Rome put people out of business and that
    immigrant workers take Italian jobs.  Recently this second
    claim has been especially compelling, given the ever higher
    number of immigrants arriving in the Veneto and the global
    economic crisis, which has led to many job losses in the
    Veneto.

    ¶4. (SBU) LN rhetoric about immigration ranges from slightly
    protectionist to overtly xenophobic, and the LN has
    successfully linked immigrants to crime in the minds of an
    increasingly large swath of voters.  LN policies at the local
    levels often focus on expelling illegal immigrants and
    ""cleaning up"" the often run-down neighborhoods in which they
    live - measures that citizens often perceive, in practical
    terms, as cleaning up the streets, reducing crime, and
    generally improving the quality of life.  The opposition
    refutes the logic behind these measures as well as claims
    about their effectiveness, but even they admit that on the
    issue of security, the Northern League is king.  A PD
    official from the city of Treviso noted that economic
    insecurity in Italy is the more salient issue, especially in
    the recent downturn, but that the LN has seized on physical
    security as its issue, which is easier to explain to voters,
    and has translated it into political gain.

    Party of the People - and the Young

    ¶5. (SBU) Although many LN leaders would be reluctant to admit
    it, the Northern League in the Veneto draws heavily from
    Italy,s former communist tradition and has retained that
    close, grass-roots connection to the electorate; supporters
    across the region refer glowingly to the LN as the only

    MILAN 00000021  002 OF 003

    ""party of the masses"" and ""party of the people"" currently in
    the country.  The LN has continued to expand its physical
    presence with numerous, accessible party offices and outposts
    that also double as community centers.  LN leaders and voters
    alike boast that their mayors and councilmen are always out
    and about, talking to people and maintaining a personal
    relationship with their constituents - practicing what hugely
    popular Verona mayor Flavio Tosi has termed ""supermarket
    politics.""  The LN,s pervasive reputation for good public
    administration seems to stem directly from this
    responsiveness, accessibility, and visibility.  Furthermore -
    largely due to its strong physical presence and proactive
    outreach in the region - the Northern League has successfully
    courted the youth vote and seems to be making great progress
    in cultivating the next generation of LN voters.  A Treviso
    Pd official said that in 2009 he organized a visit to
    Strasbourg for area teens to learn more about the EU
    Parliament, the first arranged by the region,s Democratic
    Party in 15 years; over the same period, however, the
    Northern League has organized multiple similar trips per
    year.

    Democratic Party Struggling for Coherence, Votes, and Venice

    ¶6. (SBU) In contrast to the Northern League,s rise, the
    center-left in Veneto is struggling to put forward a cohesive
    platform and communicate a strong party identity to the
    electorate.  The party is suffering from a declining share of
    the vote, and its loss in March,s race for the regional
    presidency is virtually assured.  The Pd,s choice for
    gubernatorial candidate displays the party,s internal
    weakness and identity crisis; Venice city councilman Giuseppe
    Bortolussi is far from a typical Democrat, with an
    ideologically independent bent and a conservative,
    pro-business stance.  Bortolussi - who, well before the
    announcement of his candidacy, told us that he did not want
    to run, but would ""obey"" if his party,s leadership asked him
    to - has for over thirty years served as the director of the
    region,s largest union of small- and medium-size business
    owners. In this capacity he has often led the charge against
    higher taxes and central government interference, the LN,s
    traditional political territory, and has clashed openly with
    center-left governments headed by Pd Prime Ministers Prodi
    and D,Alema.  The PD,s obvious attempt to challenge the
    center-right on its own terrain and appeal to the largest
    possible electorate is not likely to succeed.

    ¶7. (SBU) Another potential blow to the center-left would be
    the loss of the mayorship of Venice (which also holds
    elections in late March). While not particularly important
    politically, the city of Venice still has enormous cultural
    and social significance, and it has for over twenty years
    been a center-left stronghold.  Outgoing PD mayor Massimo
    Cacciari has already served three terms in total, and the
    center-left candidate, elderly lawyer and former city
    councilman Giorgio Orsoni, is in a close race with the
    popular Minister of Public Administration Renato Brunetta
    (from Silvio Berlusconi's Popolo della Liberta party).
    Brunetta's mayoral run could be hurt by his stated desire to
    continue serving as a cabinet minister even if elected, but
    he remains a very popular figure among Venetians, and the
    race is definitely open.

    ¶8. (SBU) According to PD officials in the region, the
    party,s main problem lies in its inability to articulate a
    platform and its lack of organization, not in the quality of
    its governance.  A PD official from Verona highlighted recent
    achievements by numerous PD mayors throughout the Veneto, but
    admitted that the party has been ineffective in communicating
    its successes to the electorate and translating them into
    votes.  The party has also struggled to explain itself to
    voters in the region, a communication failure that has
    allowed the LN to take the mantle of ""reform"" from the PD.
    Additionally, unlike the LN, the PD has not built a robust
    physical presence, further removing it from the electorate
    and particularly the next generation of young voters.
    Lastly, despite several particularly talented Veneto PD
    politicians, the party has not successfully drawn the link to
    the territory that the LN has so masterfully done. Regional
    PD officials stressed that tying its platform more closely to
    the specific Veneto terrain is critical to any future level
    of success in the region.  The PD failed to inherit the
    structure of the Italian Communist Party or the Christian
    Democrats - the parties from which it descended - and after a
    series of failures on the national and regional level, has
    struggled to set new roots down.

    Comment:  Jockeying for Power within the Ruling Coalition
    ¶9. (C) Because the center-right,s victory in the regional
    race is essentially assured, the real contest in the Veneto
    is within the majority coalition, between the Northern League
    and Prime Minister Berlusconi,s ruling Popolo della Libert
    (Pdl).  While they are allies in the coalition, their
    relationship at the regional level and below is often tense,
    and the two parties display very different positions,

    MILAN 00000021  003 OF 003

    platforms, and political styles. While the LN has been strong
    in the Veneto for some time, this election cycle could be the
    first time that it actually overtakes the Pdl in the region;
    a recent poll conducted by northern Italian polling firm SWG
    predicts the LN will receive 33 percent of the vote, while
    the Pdl stands around 27 percent.  While polls are imperfect
    predictors, the numbers are still striking to those both
    within and outside of the majority coalition.  Because the
    parties in the winning coalition will divvy up positions
    based on the percentage of votes they have received, the LN
    is pushing to secure as many important regional political
    posts as possible.  Additionally, the result of the regional
    elections in the Veneto and other Italian regions could shift
    the balance of power between the LN and Berlusconi,s Pdl at
    the national government level.  In times of political
    weakness or vulnerability Berlusconi has already had to give
    concessions to LN government leaders in order to win support
    for his personal legislative agenda.  With a strong enough
    showing in the March elections, and without a solid
    opposition to block such measures, the LN could be in an even
    more powerful position to influence Italian national policy
    and assert its own security-based, anti-immigrant political
    ideology.

    ¶10. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Rome.
     Perez
    "

`