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### Viewing cable 06REYKJAVIK130, ICELANDIC FOREIGN MINISTER BEARING UP WELL UNDER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06REYKJAVIK130 | 2006-04-11 16:04 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Reykjavik

`

    VZCZCXYZ0010
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHRK #0130/01 1011605
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 111605Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2700
    INFO RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0208

` `

    UNCLAS REYKJAVIK 000130

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE, SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: NATO MARR PREL KPAO IIP ECA IC
    SUBJECT:  ICELANDIC FOREIGN MINISTER BEARING UP WELL UNDER
    OPPOSITION FIRE ON BASE ISSUE; COULD STILL USE OUR HELP

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Icelandic Foreign Minister Geir H. Haarde
    has spent early April trying to diffuse criticism from press
    and politicians who accuse him of failing to predict the
    U.S. decision to draw down Naval Air Station Keflavik
    (NASKEF), and who say he is too passive in letting the U.S.
    define Iceland's defense needs.  Haarde's critics are
    variously using the base closure issue to argue that
    Haarde's Independence Party is not the guarantor of national
    security that it has long claimed, that the Government is
    asleep at the switch, and that Iceland should join the
    European Union.  We will reward Haarde's dogged Atlanticism
    if we come up with a plan for security post-NASKEF that he
    can sell to an increasingly skeptical public. End Summary.

    ¶2. (U) Foreign Minister Haarde used his twice-yearly speech
    on foreign policy to the Althingi (Icelandic Parliament)
    April 6 as a platform to defend himself against criticism
    that he did not foresee the U.S. decision to zero out
    NASKEF's budget. "The world is constantly changing, even in
    the short time between reports by the Foreign Minister to
    the Althingi on the current aspects of foreign affairs,"
    Haarde told Parliament.

    -------------------------------
    Changes in Security Environment
    -------------------------------
    ¶3. (U) Haarde told MPs that the world now faces a variety of
    threats, ranging from hostile dictatorial states and complex
    ethnic conflicts to tiny terrorist groups and environmental
    damage and epidemics. "It is not unreasonable, therefore,
    that NATO, led by the United States, is now trying to adapt
    its defensive capabilities to these new circumstances," the
    Foreign Minister said.  "The membership in NATO and the
    Defense Agreement with the United States have been the
    cornerstones of Iceland's security policy for over half a
    century.  Although one might be led to think otherwise by
    the recent public debate, the defense cooperation has,
    indeed, changed in light of the changed world order. . .Not
    changed enough, however, to warrant the sacrifice of an air
    defense capability for which there is a defined need within
    NATO."

    ------------------------------------------
    Base Announcement a `Great Disappointment'
    ------------------------------------------
    ¶4. (U) Mr. Haarde continued, "Whatever the expectations may
    have been, it cannot be denied that March 15 was a historic
    day, and the unilateral decision by the United States while
    talks were in progress was a great disappointment and a
    setback for the defense cooperation. The possibility of a
    revision, or even termination, of the Defense Agreement
    cannot be excluded.  But in light of the fact that the U.S.
    Government reiterated its commitments under the 1951 Defense
    Agreement, the first step was for Iceland and the United
    States to enter into negotiating on the future of their
    cooperation."

    -------------------
    Opposition Reaction
    -------------------
    ¶5. (U) Since the March 15 announcement that no significant
    U.S. military presence will remain in Iceland after
    September 30, 2006, the Foreign Minister has been ridiculed
    by editorial cartoonists and opposition political parties,
    who portray him as being a pawn of the Americans. One
    editorial cartoon showed Secretary Rice dragging the Foreign
    Minister along the ground by his ears, telling him, "It is
    so comfortable dealing with you Icelanders because you can
    take anything we throw at you."

    ¶6. (U) An April 4 Morgunbladid op-ed by the Left Green
    Party's chair and his deputy fumed, "It still looks as if
    everything revolves around what the United States is willing
    to do -- with Icelandic envoys in the role of supplicants."
    Ossur Skarphensson, former Social Democratic Alliance (SDA)
    Chair and now an influential MP, remarked in the Althing
    April 5, "The Foreign Minister was the only person in the
    country who believed the Defense Force would not leave
    Iceland."

    ¶7. (U) Ogmundur Jonasson, MP for the Left Green Party and a
    reliably strong critic of Icelandic and U.S. foreign
    policies, quipped that Mr. Haarde's April 6 speech amounted
    to "a very good analysis by the Foreign Minister that could
    have come straight from the Pentagon."  Ingibjorg Solrun
    Gisladottir, SDA Chair and Haarde's main competition for the
    Prime Minister's job in 2007 elections, criticized the
    government for lacking a policy on security and defense:
    "They are sitting there with their hands in their laps, with
    no proposals of their own, waiting for the United States to
    make up a new contingency plan for Iceland. These are
    Iceland's willing and steadfast leaders."

    ¶8. (U) Gisladottir added (comment:  accurately, in post's
    view; end comment) that there was a different foreign and
    defense policy emphasis between the two parties making up
    the coalition government.  Haarde's Independence Party seems
    more in favor of cooperation with the United States, she
    said, and Asgrimsson's Progressive Party with Europe.
    Gisladottir affirmed that SDA policy is to work so that
    Europe "will be our security community in the future."

    --------------------
    What It Means For Us
    --------------------
    ¶9. (SBU) Comment:  FM Haarde is handling the barbs and
    public ridicule smoothly so far, and he used his speech to
    underscore his rationale for taking a `wait and see'
    attitude toward bilateral defense cooperation.  EUCOM is due
    to brief the GOI later this month on how it plans to
    `replace the base.'  The EUCOM plan will not satisfy
    everyone in Iceland, especially the opposition parties.  But
    if it can convey clearly that we continue to offer genuine
    defense preparedness to this long-time ally, the plan will
    help not only Iceland but also Haarde, thus far the most
    levelheaded of our senior Icelandic interlocutors. End
    comment.

    VAN VOORST

`