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### Viewing cable 06MEXICO4310, AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PRESUMED PRESIDENT ELECT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MEXICO4310 | 2006-08-04 13:01 | 2011-02-21 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles: http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/necesario-enviar-energica-senal-de-apoyo-a-calderon

`

    R 041338Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2510
    INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS

` `

    73752
    2006-08-04 13:38:00
    06MEXICO4310
    Embassy Mexico
    CONFIDENTIAL

    R 041338Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2510
    INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
    AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MEXICO 004310

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
    SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PRESUMED PRESIDENT ELECT
    CALDERON

    Classified By: Ambassador Antonio O. Garza Jr for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

    ¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Presumed President-elect Felipe Calderon
    told the Ambassador 8/2 that he thought the Electoral
    Tribunal could decide as early as this week to recount a
    certain number of ballots, a gesture Calderon thought was
    reasonable in light of the ongoing Democratic Revolution
    Party (PRD) protests in Mexico City.  A final certification
    of the presidential election could take until late August, he
    speculated.  Calderon said his role was to be patient and
    prepare himself for the presidency.  He planned to attend
    President Uribe's inauguration in Colombia, but also looked
    forward to an early visit to the United States, perhaps
    including some cities with large migrant populations.
    Calderon is looking to engage on a broad agenda with the U.S.
    and to avoid the trap of making migration the dominant
    bilateral issue.  Calderon's comments led us to believe his
    transition planning is in the very early stages.  He dropped
    one comment that indicated he has not been in close contact
    with President Fox since the election.  End Summary.

    The Waiting Game

    ¶2.  (C)  Presumed President-elect Felipe Calderon requested
    the 8/2 meeting with the Ambassador, primarily to express
    thanks for President Bush's early and friendly congratulatory
    call.  (Note:  Calderon met 8/1 with the Spanish Ambassador,
    and expected to meet with the ambassadors of other countries
    offering congratulations in the course of the week).
    Calderon expressed his regret about the ongoing PRD protests
    (which have blocked key arteries leading to the Embassy's
    neighborhood)  and some frustration that PRD candidate Andres
    Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) was refusing to acknowledge
    defeat.  While his situation was difficult, Calderon said,
    every day he was more convinced a few weeks of patience was
    better than just one day with AMLO in Los Pinos.  Calderon's
    tracking polls indicated that on a daily basis AMLO was
    losing support and Calderon was gaining.  The PRD's attacks
    on election institutions had done some damage, but as AMLO
    became increasingly inconsiderate and obstructive the
    institutions regained credibility.

    ¶3.  (C)  Calderon reported there were some indications that
    the Electoral Tribunal could make a preliminary ruling this
    Friday that would allow for a recount of some ballot boxes in
    areas where the results were extremely close, or where the
    law permitted a recounting of the ballots.  He estimated that
    some 6,000-8,000 ballot boxes could be recounted under this
    ruling (there are a maximum of 750 votes per ballot box).
    The recount could begin immediately, with results available
    within a matter of days.  Calderon's expectation was that the
    recount results would not vary dramatically from those
    originally reported.  This would be enough to satisfy some in
    the PRD and broader public who were calling for a recount,
    Calderon surmised, but probably not AMLO.  The Tribunal could
    make its final certification of the election results in late
    August, but AMLO could continue protests (although not
    necesarily his occupation of Paseo de la Reforma) through
    President Fox's annual report to Congress (September 2) and
    inauguration day (December 1) -- or beyond.

    Transition

    ¶4.  (C)  Calderon stressed his willingness to work
    collaboratively with the U.S. on a broad range of issues, and
    did not want to get stuck in a single-issue debate on
    migration.  He expected to differentiate his Administration
    from that of President Fox, but at this meeting didn't
    provide many specifics.  Calderon planned to attend Colombian
    President Uribe's inauguration in Colombia next week, and was
    considering a trip to U.S. cities with large migrant
    populations, starting with Los Angeles.  He acknowledged the
    Ambassador's point that such travel should be scheduled with
    careful attention to U.S. electoral calendar and the debate
    on migration.  Once Calderon's election was certified, he
    hoped as well to meet President Bush and senior U.S.
    officials.   While the Ambassador pressed for details on
    transition priorities and personalities, Calderon wasn't
    particularly forthcoming, suggesting his transition planning
    is still in its early stages.  The Ambassador stressed that
    we were looking forward to a close working relationship with
    the Calderon team as soon as they were ready.

    Region

    ¶5.  (C)  Calderon volunteered his concern over the role
    Chavez was playing in the region, while noting that Castro's
    sudden absence from the scene -- be it permanent or temporary
    -- offered an opportunity to undermine Chavez' role.
    Calderon said he understood Chavez was increasingly active in
    Mexico.  Calderon international affairs adviser Arturo
    Sarrukhan stated that Castro had duodenal cancer and was
    likely in the final stages.  All agreed it was an
    unprecedented situation leading to a probable transition.
    The Ambassador pointed out that the region should not permit
    a Castro-Castro succession scenario to be considered
    legitimate.

    ¶6.  (C)  Sarrukhan separately stated that one reason Calderon
    had agreed to go to Colombia was to consult with the GOC on
    the increasing ties between Colombian and Mexican narcotics
    traffickers.  During his attendance at Garcia's inauguration
    in Peru, Sarrukhan said, Peruvian leaders had also stressed
    their concern that Mexican traffickers were playing a larger
    role in the Andes generally.  Calderon was extremely
    concerned about the damage the cartels were doing to Mexico,
    and wanted to take strong measures against them.

    Comment

    ¶7.  (C)  Comment:  Calderon was convinced he won legitimately
    and resigned to waiting out the Electoral Tribunal's
    ratification of his election -- an outcome he did not appear
    to doubt.  He appeared in a paid announcement on national
    television the evening of August 2 to stress his conviction
    that election institutions had acted appropriately and that
    his victory should be recognized.  Caldeorn let slip a
    comment that it was hard for him to reach President Fox -- an
    indication that the two are not working closely together
    during this period of uncertainty.

    Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

    GARZA

`