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### Viewing cable 09RPODUBAI247, IRAN'S REFORMISTS BRAND ALLEGED ELECTION FRAUD AS TREASON,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09RPODUBAI247 | 2009-06-13 12:12 | 2010-12-11 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Iran RPO Dubai

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    VZCZCXRO8129
    OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHDIR #0247 1641229
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 131229Z JUN 09 ZDK
    FM RPO DUBAI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0432
    INFO RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI IMMEDIATE 0355
    RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
    RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 0035
    RUEHDIR/RPO DUBAI 0433

` `

    S E C R E T RPO DUBAI 000247

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/13/2034
    TAGS: PGOV PHUM PROP PINS IR
    SUBJECT: IRAN'S REFORMISTS BRAND ALLEGED ELECTION FRAUD AS TREASON,
    VOW TO FIGHT ON

    REF: WOI 06/11/2009

    CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence
    Office - Dubai, DOS.
    REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)

    ¶1. (S/NF) In reftel, we suggested the two most likely outcomes
    for the Iranian election were a Moussavi win in the first round,
    or a massively fraudulent Ahmadinejad win in the first round.
    (Winning in the first round requites winning more than 50
    percent of the nationwide vote.) It appears both took place.
    Moussavi in a press conference on 06/13 claimed Interior
    Ministry told him and his campaign Friday night that he had won.
    It then appears that massive political intervention led to a
    huge (60 percent plus) AN landslide being announced on state TV
    early on Saturday.

    ¶2. (S/NF) Based upon statements by Moussavi and Karroubi,
    comments from sources inside Iran, and press reports, we can
    expect some form of public rejection by their campaigns and
    their supporters of the reelection of President Ahmadinejad.
    Former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezai has not yet spoken on the
    results. In his statements Moussavi called the result "treason"
    and vowed to fight. Karroubi issued a statement at 1500 Tehran
    time on 06/13 calling the process unconstitutional and stating
    that he would not remain quiet as he did in 2005.

    ¶3. (S/NF) Official results of AN's victory with 63 percent of
    the vote were announced at 1630 Tehran time Saturday. Even
    before the results were public, large protests have reportedly
    broken out in Tehran as of 1530. We anticipate these will
    continue, possibly leading to skirmishes between Moussavi
    supporters and AN forces this evening. Reports indicate a heavy
    security presence in the Tehran streets, so the situation could
    escalate quickly.

    ¶4. (S/NF) Comment: We surmise that the Supreme Leader's control
    over the security services and national media will act to
    inhibit the flow of reliable information coming out of Iran in
    the coming days. As reported earlier, however, over 200 foreign
    media were in Iran to cover the election, so they may serve as
    an eyewitness to developments. The outcome of this contested
    election could be as limited as a large segment of the
    population feeling intensely alienated and angry. This is
    nothing new for the IRIG, and their monopoly of force and some
    well-timed repression can likely quell most dissent - although
    it would be particularly bad PR to do this while so many foreign
    media are present.

    ¶5. (S/NF) Comment, Cont'd.: It is possible, however, that given
    the number of senior political figures this campaign and this
    election result have profoundly angered, and the scope of
    popular resentment over the results; a large-scale political
    crisis could develop. Our position should remain wait-and-see
    for the time being, particularly as several key figures have yet
    to speak publicly on events. That said, if the opposition does
    start to organize on a large scale, or if clashes turn violent,
    we will need to quickly determine an appropriate public
    position. Many opposition supporters will likely look to the US
    - particularly after the Cairo speech - for inspiration.

    ASGARD

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