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### Viewing cable 09LIMA1561, HUMALA: HEDGING BETS IN RUN UP TO ELECTIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09LIMA1561 | 2009-10-21 20:08 | 2011-02-20 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Lima
Appears in these articles: http://elcomercio.pe/

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHPE #1561/01 2942013
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 212013Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1387
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 0087
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 0047
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8600
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 4170
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1517
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT 5325
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 9840
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 0080
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 0075
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001561

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SNAR PE
    SUBJECT: HUMALA: HEDGING BETS IN RUN UP TO ELECTIONS

    REF: A. LIMA 637
         ¶B. 05 LIMA 4132
         ¶C. 05 LIMA 4854

    Classified...
    id: 230714
    date: 10/21/2009 20:13
    refid: 09LIMA1561
    origin: Embassy Lima
    classification: CONFIDENTIAL
    destination: 05LIMA4132|05LIMA4854|09LIMA637
    header:
    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHPE #1561/01 2942013
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 212013Z OCT 09
    FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1387
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 0087
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 0047
    RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8600
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 4170
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1517
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT 5325
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 9840
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 0080
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 0075
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001561

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SNAR PE
    SUBJECT: HUMALA: HEDGING BETS IN RUN UP TO ELECTIONS

    REF: A. LIMA 637
         ¶B. 05 LIMA 4132
         ¶C. 05 LIMA 4854

    Classified By: Amb P. Michael McKinley for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Opposition leader Ollanta Humala -- who
    nearly won the 2006 presidential elections on a populist
    platform -- heads a Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) pursuing
    an ambiguous dual-track political path.  According to
    insiders, the party continues to have "one foot inside and
    the other foot outside" of the formal political system, and
    several factions have been fighting over which path to choose
    in the run up to regional and national elections.  Humala's
    decision to create some level of association with radical
    groups has resulted in one recent high-level defection from
    the party so far.  Whatever his final tack, Humala is likely
    to be in the presidential mix in 2011 -- unless Peru's latent
    mass of disenchanted voters find someone they believe better
    suited to bear the anti-system flag.  End Summary.

    One Foot In, the Other Out
    --------------------------
    ¶2.  (C) Opposition leader Ollanta Humala -- who nearly won
    the 2006 presidential elections on a populist platform --
    heads a Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) in search of its
    true identity.  The party has swung between opposing
    approaches since its inception, seeking to make itself
    broadly palatable by assuming moderate positions and
    eschewing open talk of radical measures while also
    maintaining its credentials as an anti-system group dedicated
    to profound "nationalist" reform (refs B and C.)  In a
    conversation with the Ambassador earlier this year, Humala
    suggested he was keeping his options open and quietly
    coordinating with radical groups (ref A).  Nadine Heredia,
    Humala's wife and advisor and a key PNP leader, told us more
    recently that the party continues to have "one foot inside
    and the other foot outside" of the formal political system,
    describing the party's vigorous work within Congress and its
    willingness, as necessary, to assume more radical positions
    to oppose what she characterized as Peru's corrupt and unjust
    social and political order.

    Infighting Over Approach
    ------------------------
    ¶3.  (C) Several party factions have been fighting over which
    path to choose in the run up to the 2010 regional elections
    and the subsequent national elections in 2011.  Publicly,
    this dispute has centered over the PNP's reported effort to
    forge a broad left-of-center coalition, and include radical
    fringe groups such as Patria Roja, (MRTA front organization)
    Patria Libre and others in it.  Humala himself has made
    public statements indicating an interest in working with any
    group that "wants to change the country."  According to some
    reports, Humala has made a political decision to maintain (at
    a minimum) some level of association with radical groups,
    reportedly opening a "frente amplio" office in a Lima suburb
    and holding periodic meetings, even though he recently
    publicly denied any intention to form an electoral agreement
    with these groups.  Some PNP leaders, including Congressman
    Daniel Abugattas, have argued that bringing radical groups
    into the PNP tent gives them leverage they would otherwise
    lack, and undermines the party's authority and leadership.
    Abugattas' advisors told us recently that Humala had already
    been pressured into taking several controversial public
    positions as a result of this dynamic, which had damaged the
    party's image.

    ¶4.  (C) Nadine Heredia told us the PNP talks to "everyone,"
    and was open to alliances with other groups on the left.  She
    underscored that one important exception to this rule was
    Sendero Luminoso, which the PNP rejected and against whom her
    husband had fought as an Army officer at the height of the
    terrorist insurgency.  According to news and other reports,
    the return as a close advisor to the party of longtime
    leftist ideologue Carlos Tapia, who had reportedly distanced
    himself from Humala after the 2006 election loss, was one of
    the driving forces behind the PNP's move to forge alliances
    with all comers, including those on the radical fringe.  That
    a former staffer to PNP Congresswoman and cocalero leader
    Nancy Obregon's was recently caught transporting 140 kilos of
    cocaine suggests the party's radical associations extend to
    drug-trafficking (vice mere coca growing) interests as well.

    ¶5.  (C) Another factor in Humala's dual strategy relates to
    electoral strategy.  According to party insiders, to avoid a
    collapse similar to that of the 2006 regional and municipal
    elections (in which the PNP fared poorly), Humala has chosen
    to field candidates in the 2010 regional elections that fly
    under a non-PNP banner as "regional fronts."   At the same
    time, the party plans to maintain a loose association with
    these fronts, hence the reaching out.  The reasoning behind
    this strategy, insiders say, is that the PNP will be able to
    claim victory if "its" candidates win, and thereby gain
    momentum in the approach to 2011, while avoiding too close an
    association with candidates who lose, which could hamper the
    PNP's national aspirations.

    High-Level Defection
    --------------------
    ¶6.  (C) Internal dissent over the PNP's approach has resulted
    in one recent high-level defection from the party so far,
    that of Congressman Isaac Mekler.  After publicly questioning
    what he called the party's dangerous association with radical
    actors, Mekler formally bolted from the party in early
    October, declaring himself a political independent.
    Following the break, Mekler accused Humala of having been
    induced by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez into an
    association with such groups as the New Left (Nueva
    Izquierda), the Socialist Party, Patria Libre and other
    fringe groups.  Mekler's follows the earlier defections of
    other former Humala allies, most of whom left the PNP fold
    immediately after the 2006 elections.  Whether rooted in real
    ideological disagreements or simple personal interests, it
    could also presage more departures in the future.  For
    example, we have heard that indigenous leaders within the PNP
    have also grown restive and some, chafing under the party's
    autocratic leadership and claiming Humala has sought to use
    them politically while giving them little in return, are
    considering breaking ties with the party and throwing their
    support to alternative candidates.

    Humala in the Mix
    -----------------
    ¶7.  (C) Internal tensions notwithstanding, Humala is likely
    to be in the presidential mix in 2011.  More than any other
    prominent political figure, he continues most fully to embody
    the "political opposition" for most Peruvians; and, while
    notoriously fickle, poll numbers consistently place him among
    the top 5 candidates for president in 2011.  In addition, the
    PNP is one of the few political parties with a national
    structure, and probably the only one (apart from theFujimoristas) with an active political network in Peru's
    impoverished rural communities -- a significant electoral
    advantage.

    Comment: Competing for Anti-System Vote
    ---------------------------------------
    ¶8.  (C) Not alone in the anti-system wild, other candidates
    are likely to compete with Humala over Peru's overlapping
    nationalist, leftist, opposition political turf.  These could
    include Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori (daughter of the former
    President), former Prime Minister Yehude Simon, and
    anti-mining activist and Catholic priest, Padre Marco Arana,
    who has already formed his "Tierra y Libertad" political
    party.  In our recent conversation with her, Nadine Heredia's
    dismissive attitude toward Humala's potential political
    rivals struck us as thinly veiled concern about having to
    compete for the political space that became her husband's
    alone in 2006.  Finally, if Peru's recent electoral past is
    precedent, the prospect of a previously little known,
    last-minute candidate surging to occupy the anti-system
    segment of Peru's political spectrum -- a la Fujimori in
    1990, Toledo in 2001 and Humala himself in 2006 -- can hardly
    be ruled out.  This historical pattern also explains Humala's
    strategy of keeping at least one foot outside a system in
    which a still significant percentage of Peru's voters have
    little faith.
    MCKINLEY

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

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