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### Viewing cable 10REYKJAVIK4, ICELAND: REFERENDUM RUMORS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10REYKJAVIK4 | 2010-01-06 16:04 | 2011-01-13 05:05 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Reykjavik

`

    VZCZCXRO1858
    PP RUEHIK
    DE RUEHRK #0004 0061649
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 061649Z JAN 10
    FM AMEMBASSY REYKJAVIK
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4253
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    UNCLAS REYKJAVIK 000004

    NSC FOR HOVENIER
    TREASURY FOR NORTON

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN UK IC
    SUBJECT:  ICELAND: REFERENDUM RUMORS

    ¶1. (U) Summary:  President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson's decision on
    January 5 to veto the Icesave bill sparked wild speculation
    regarding the stability of the Icelandic government and the
    country's economic future.  One day later, as the dust begins to
    settle, it appears as though the country will move forward with
    plans to hold a national referendum on the topic with a vote
    occurring as early as February 20.  It also appears that the current
    government intends to remain in power, at least until the referendum
    takes place.  The future is less clear regarding the country's
    economic recovery after several Nordic Finance Ministries expressed
    their intentions to withhold a Nordic loan package until after the
    national referendum is completed.  This decision complicates the IMF
    recovery program for Iceland which was largely predicated on
    Iceland's receiving this Nordic loan.  End summary.

    Referendum Rumors and Government Stability
    --------------------------------------------
    ¶2. (U) President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson's decision on January 5 to
    veto the Icesave bill sparked wild speculation regarding Iceland's
    immediate future.  The Icelandic constitution is clear in mandating
    that a national referendum occur shortly after the President refuses
    to sign a bill, but the law is vague on how to conduct such a
    referendum.  The Icelandic parliament, which is currently on holiday
    recess, is expected to reconvene on January 8 to discuss the matter.
     The first order of business for parliament will be to introduce
    legislation clarifying the subject and laying out the procedures for
    a referendum.  There are currently two bills sitting before
    parliament that address the topic, however, the government intends
    to submit a completely new bill that will apply exclusively to the
    current situation.  The national referendum, according to the media,
    may take place as early as Saturday, February 20.

    ¶3. (U) The coalition government appears as though it will survive
    the political upheaval and chaos precipitated by the president's
    refusal to sign the Icesave law, at least until the national
    referendum takes place.  Chairman of the parliamentary group for the
    Social Democrats, Bjorgvin G. Sigurdsson, said on January 5 that
    "the government will continue in power and will start preparations
    to hold the national referendum".  Most commentators agree, however,
    that the coalition will likely collapse if voters strike down the
    Icesave law in the referendum.

    ¶4. (U) The situation in Iceland could become even more politically
    charged as the referendum, should it take place in mid February,
    would occur shortly after the release of a "Truth Commission"
    report.  The report, which was commissioned by the government to
    investigate the causes of the bank collapse and to identify those
    responsible, is scheduled to be made public on February 1.  The
    combination of these two highly volatile issues, occurring within
    such close proximity to one another, ensures that political tensions
    will be running high in Iceland.

    Economic Recovery in Doubt
    --------------------------------------
    ¶5. (U) In the wake of the president's decision, several Nordic
    finance ministries came forward with statements suggesting that the
    Nordic loan of USD 2.5 billon to Iceland was now in jeopardy.
    Several of these ministries indicated that the Nordic loan would not
    be forthcoming at least until after the national referendum was
    conducted.  The Deputy Director General at the Finnish Ministry of
    Finance, Ilkka Kajaste, said on February 6 that "the process will
    probably be delayed, as we will ask the British and the Dutch what
    they think about the situation.  In any case, this will require a
    new assessment."

    ¶6. (U) This decision by the Nordic countries jeopardizes the IMF
    recovery package for Iceland which was, in large part, predicated on
    the Nordic loan package. The Iceland mission chief for the
    International Monetary Fund, Mark Flanagan, said that although an
    agreement on the Icesave issue was not a precondition for the IMF
    program, it was important that the IMF program be fully funded and
    he intended to consult with the other countries providing financing
    to the program.

    EAGEN

`