Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 5440 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Yemen Jordan

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 86 88 89 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1986/05
1988/01
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/07 2001/10
2002/02 2002/03 2002/11
2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Amsterdam American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamburg
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan
Embassy New Delhi Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Consulate Vladivostok
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AR ASEC AEMR AORC AJ AF AMGT ACOA AO AE AU AFIN AX AMED ADCO AG AODE APER AFFAIRS AC AS AM AL ASIG ABLD ABUD AA AFU ASUP AROC ATFN AVERY APCS AER ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AEC APECO AGMT ATRN
BA BR BL BO BH BTIO BEXP BU BIDEN BM BK BY BG BE BF BB BC BBSR BMGT BRUSSELS BTIU BILAT BX
CO CS CH COUNTER CVIS CASC CDG CI CU CIS CA CBW CF CM CLINTON CMGT CN CE CJAN CONDOLEEZZA COE CR CY CG CD CTM COUNTRY CLEARANCE CPAS CWC CT CKGR CB CACS COM CJUS CARSON CL COUNTERTERRORISM CIA CACM CDB CV CAN
DR DA DHS DOE DEA DK DJ DISENGAGEMENT DS DTRA DOD DEAX
ETTC EG ECON EINV EFIN ETRD EAGR ELAB ENRG ECPS EWWT EUN EAID EU EAIR ECIN EPET ER EINT EIND EMIN ELTN EFIS EI EN ES EC EXTERNAL EINVETC ENVR ENIV EZ EINN ENGR EUR ECA ET ESA ELN ENERG EK ENGY ETRO ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ETRDEINVTINTCS ESENV ENVI EFTA ELECTIONS ECUN EINVEFIN ECIP EINDETRD EUC EREL ECONEFIN
FR FAO FTAA FREEDOM FI FARC FBI FJ FMLN FINR
GE GG GR GM GH GTIP GV GT GOI GCC GAZA GZ GA GANGS GTMO
HUMAN HILLARY HO HA HYMPSK HR HU HURI HK HSTC
IS IAEA IC IZ IR IT ITPHUM IV IPR IWC IQ IN IO ID ICTY ISRAELI IRAQI IIP ICRC ICAO IMO IF ILC IEFIN INRB INTELSAT IL IA IBRD IMF INR IRC ITALY ITALIAN INTERPOL IRAJ INRA INRO
JOSEPH JA JO JP JOHNNIE JUS JAMES
KCRM KPAL KDEM KE KWMN KPAO KNNP KJUS KGHG KN KS KISL KTIP KDRG KSCA KCOR KIPR KTLA KIRF KV KCFC KHLS KGIC KRAD KSPR KG KZ KTFN KTIA KHIV KWBG KACT KPRP KU KAWC KOLY KCIP KCFE KOCI KPKO KTDB KMRS KFRD KLIG KBCT KICC KMCA KGIT KSTC KMDR KUNR KPAK KNEI KSEP KPOA KFLU KNUP KNNPMNUC KVPR KOMC KAWK KO KTER KSUM KHUM KRFD KBIO KBTR KDDG KWWMN KFLO KSAF KBTS KPRV KMPI KHDP KNPP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNAR KWMM KERG KFIN KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KTBT KCRS KRVC KSTH KREL KIRC KNSD KTEX KPAI KHSA KPLS KR KPWR KWAC KMIG KSEC KIFR KDEMAF KGCC KPIN KNUC KCOM KDEV
LY LE LG LH LI LU LO LOG LT
MASS MNUC MEPP MOPS MARR MTCRE MK MTRE MX MU MCAP ML MO MP MA MY MIL MDC MTCR MAR MEPI MRCRE MI MT MR MQADHAFI MD MAPS MUCN MASC MASSMNUC MERCOSUR MC MPOS MZ MOPPS MAPP MG MCC
NATO NE NS NPT NL NAR NO NI NIPP NZ NU NPG NK NSG NA NT NASA NG NGO NP NSF NATIONAL
OPDC OREP ODIP OTRA OVIP OSCE OPRC OAS OFDP OPIC OIIP OEXC OECD OPCW OSCI OIE OIC OTR OVP OFFICIALS OSAC
PGOV PTER PREL PHUM PINR PINS PARM PREF PBTS PARMS PORG PE PK PHSA PROP PO PA PM PMIL PL PTERE POL PF PALESTINIAN PY PGGV PNR POV PAK PAO PFOR PHALANAGE PARTY PRGOV PNAT PROV PEL PINF PGOVE POLINT PRL PRAM PMAR PGOVLO PHUMBA PHUS PHUMPREL PG POLITICS PEPR PSI PINT PSOE PU POLITICAL PARTIES PBIO PECON POGOV PINL PKFK PGOF
QA
RS RU RO RIGHTS RW RICE ROBERT RF RFE RP REGION
SMIG SNAR SENV SOCI SCUL SY SO SP SA SW SHUM SR SF SZ SU SL SYR ST SANC SC SAN SIPRS SK SH SI SNARCS STEINBERG SN SG
TERRORISM TSPA TH TU TO TBIO TW TX TFIN TD TRGY TSPL TZ TIP TPHY TS TK TNGD TI TC TINT TRSY TP TR TT
UNGA UNSC UK UNESCO UN UP UZ UY UE UAE UNO UNEP UG US USTR UNHCR UNMIK UNDP UNHRC USAID UNCHS UNAUS USUN USEU UNCHC UV
VE VT VM VZ VTPREL VN
WZ WMO WI WTRO WTRQ WHO WWARD WB WBG WEU WHA WTO WA
XF XM XA XL XZ XW XR XH XG XT XC XY XD XE XK XS
YM YI YE
ZI ZP ZK ZF ZB ZANU ZOELLICK ZR ZU ZA ZO ZJ

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 06PARIS1113, UDF LEADER FRANCOIS BAYROU REVIEWS HIS CENTRIST

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06PARIS1113.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06PARIS1113 | 2006-02-23 12:12 | 2011-02-10 08:08 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris
Appears in these articles: http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/documents-wikileaks/article/2011/02/09/wikileaks-les-visiteurs-de-l-ambassade_1477418_1446239.htm

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001113

    SIPDIS

    DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
    AND EB
    DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
    DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
    TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
    SUBJECT: UDF LEADER FRANCOIS BAYROU REVIEWS HIS CENTRIST
    STRATEGY WITH AMBASSADOR STAPLETON

    REF: A. A) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 01FEB06
    ¶B. (B) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 30JAN06
    ¶C. (C) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 26JAN06
    ¶D. (D) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 11JAN06
    ¶E. (E) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 15DEC05
    ¶F. (F) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 01DEC05
    ¶G. (G) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR 25NOV05

    Classified By: Ambassador Craig Stapleton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary: At a meeting with Ambassador Stapleton on
    February 16, Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader Francois
    Bayrou reaffirmed "that France needs a centrist alternative"
    (ref B). He admitted, however, that the French persist in
    thinking in terms of "right and left," making it unlikely
    that voters in large numbers will desert the center-right and
    center-left parties for the center. Even so, Bayrou remains
    optimistic that, in the first round of the 2007 presidential
    election, he can do markedly better than his fourth place,
    7-percent showing in the 2002 election. Bayrou pointed out
    that he would be the only respectable candidate (that is, not
    of extreme left nor extreme right) in 2007 who has "already
    presented himself" to the voters in a presidential contest,
    and said that that familiarity should count in his favor. He
    dismissed Poitou-Charentes region president Segolene Royal
    (who continues to lead in popularity polls) as "having no
    political influence", and predicted that the "Segolene
    bubble" would soon burst. He said that unless Interior
    Minister Sarkozy "self-destructs" (which Bayrou said,"has
    happened before"), Sarkozy will not be dislodged as
    standard-bearer of the center-right by Prime Minister de
    Villepin. Bayrou said that, driven by reaction to the recent
    urban unrest and mounting anti-Western feeling among Muslims
    throughout the world, potential support for Jean-Marie Le Pen
    (leader of extreme right National Front (FN) party) is
    "stronger than estimated." Bayrou said that France was
    "searching for its place" in both an expanded Europe (he said
    the rejected EU constitutional treaty was indeed "a vote
    against Europe") and an economically integrated world. He
    called the French a "political" people, as opposed to an
    "economic" one, with a need for a vision and leadership.
    Bayrou did not define such a vision, although he said he
    would be doing so in coming days. Bayrou compared France to
    the U.S., saying both projected "universal values while
    seeing themselves as unique." Although accurate in his
    diagnosis of French society, Bayrou was less persuasive in
    presenting himself as the leader capable of taking France
    forward. End summary.

    TRAVAILS OF THE CENTER
    ----------------------
    ¶2. (C) Saying that "it was very difficult to make the French
    listen to something different," Bayrou acknowledged the
    difficulties facing him as he continues to pursue his
    longstanding dream of articulating a centrist political
    vision that attracts enough support to win (ref B). He was
    optimistic for the future, however, noting that he had just
    been to Israel and citing the success of the centrist Kadima
    party as a model. In the first round of the 2002
    presidential election, Bayrou placed fourth, garnering 7
    percent of the vote. Bayrou expressed determination to do
    just as well, if not better, in the next elections.
    Unfortunately, he said, French voters still identify
    themselves as being of the left or of the right rather than
    of the center. Moreover, he implied, this "crystallization"
    of political identification is heightened at election time,
    notwithstanding public opinion surveys showing that a third
    of the electorate in principle (32 percent) favors centrist
    policies over leftist (33 percent) or rightist (25 percent)
    policies. Bayrou said he was convinced that the French were
    "yearning for renewal," which would allow him to do better
    this time than he did last time (ref D). In addition, Bayrou
    asserted that the new five-year presidential term, with the
    presidential election followed closely by legislative
    elections, should produce a new electoral dynamic, one more
    favorable to centrist candidates with centrist policy
    prescriptions.

    EXPERIENCE A BIG ASSET
    ----------------------
    ¶3. (C) Excluding the far left and the extreme right, Bayrou
    called himself the "only other" candidate in 2007 who will
    have previously competed in a presidential election. He
    called presidential elections in France "savage," saying
    press and public feel they have the right to "dismember you."
    At the same time, having undergone this "initiation" was
    necessary for achieving the status of credible contender in
    the eyes of the electorate. Bayrou made clear that his
    "having been there before," along with the electorate's
    possible openness to a centrist third way, should help him in
    the first round of the 2007 presidential election, whereas it
    would tend to work against the "new" presidential candidates
    on the center-right and center-left. (Comment: While
    Interior Minister Sarkozy has a long political history with
    which the French electorate is familiar, PM de Villepin, who
    has never held elective office, is viewed by some as not yet
    having earned his spurs. On the center-left, only former PM
    Lionel Jospin has run for the presidency in the past, whereas
    current poll leader Segolene Royal is still seen as untested.
    End Comment.)

    FIRST TIMERS WON'T GO FAR
    -------------------------
    ¶4. (C) Bayrou was unequivocal in dismissing any possibility
    that Socialist Segolene Royal, President of the
    Poitou-Charentes regional council and darling of current
    popularity polls, might seriously compete for the presidency.
    He said of her that "she has no political influence;"
    indeed, he went so far as to say that she had "no worthwhile
    opinions", and that her highly-touted candidacy was backed by
    nothing beyond "photos." He was nearly as unequivocal about
    Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin's chances of dislodging
    Interior Minister Sarkozy as the standard-bearer of the
    center-right. Bayou observed that "unless Sarkozy implodes"
    -- to which Bayrou added, "which has happened before" (Bayrou
    cited as an example his defeat of Sarkozy in an early
    European parliamentary election) -- Sarkozy's control of the
    center-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party
    virtually guarantees him a place in the race. (Comment: It
    is the conventional wisdom in contemporary French
    presidential politics that first-time candidates don't win.
    Bayrou did not comment on the chances of former prime
    minister Lionel Jospin, should Jospin enter the race. 2007
    would be Jospin's third presidential contest. End comment.)

    STRENGTH OF LE PEN NOT TO BE UNDERESTIMATED
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶5. (C) Bayrou said that potential support for extreme right
    National Front (FN) leader (and veteran presidential
    candidate) Jean-Marie Le Pen was "stronger than estimated."
    Bayrou said that last Fall's weeks of urban unrest, involving
    largely immigrant, urban youths of Muslim descent, along with
    the current wave of anti-western feeling gripping the Muslim
    world and continuing economic turmoil and uncertainty, could
    swell the ranks of Le Pen supporters well beyond what might
    be admitted to pollsters. (Note and comment: A number of
    other experienced observers -- most recently and notably
    former prime minister Raymond Barre at a meeting with
    Ambassador on February 21 -- have also noted that Le Pen, if
    he qualifies to run, stays healthy, and faces conventional,
    lackluster establishment opponents could, as in 2002, do much
    better than polls might predict. End note and comment.)

    STRENGTHENING PARLIAMENT IS KEY REFORM
    --------------------------------------
    ¶6. (C) Bayrou has long been among the National Assembly's
    most eloquent and out-spoken defenders of parliament's
    prerogatives against the executive. In recent weeks, Bayrou
    has led opposition to the Villepin government's recourse to
    Article 49-3 of the French Constitution, which permits the
    government to "engage its responsibility," absent the passage
    of a no-confidence vote, to put an end to parliamentary
    debate of its most recent package of labor reform
    measures(ref A). Bayrou told Ambassador Stapleton he favored
    a mandatory three-month deliberation period before any vote
    on legislation. Bayrou asserted that the Constitution needs
    to be amended to give parliament more of a balancing role
    against the executive, including a stronger role in foreign
    affairs issues, particularly European issues. He advocated a
    bicameral system, similar to the U.S., in which some of the
    seats would be awarded on a proportional basis. Bayou
    stopped well short of calling for a parliamentary system,
    however. He insisted that the presidency should stay as is,
    an office elected by universal suffrage, with the president
    accountable directly to the people, not to the parliament.

    FRENCH ALIENATED AND FRANCE WITHOUT DIRECTION
    ---------------------------------------------
    ¶7. (C) Bayrou said that the popular mood was edgy and
    suspicious -- "the French don't believe in much anymore" --
    and that this heightened the attractions of the "answers"
    proposed by the far left and the extreme right. He added
    that France was "searching for its place" in both an expanded
    Europe and an economically integrated world. Bayrou observed
    that the French, as manifested in their rejection of the
    proposed EU constitution last May, had "lost confidence in
    Europe," seeing the European project not as a source of hope,
    but as representing feared globalization. Notwithstanding
    what many pundits were saying, Bayrou also insisted that the
    failed referendum was in fact a vote against Europe. "France
    was a nation first, not a European member state," Bayrou
    observed. Bayrou mused that, in the past, France saw Europe
    as more or less synonymous with its own interests, but that
    that was no longer the case in the wake of successive
    enlargements. He castigated current French ideas for a
    "directoire" of larger countries.

    FEARS OF ISLAM AND "CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS"
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶8. (C) Bayrou touched on burgeoning tensions among France's
    different ethnic and religious groups and placed them in the
    context of a larger "clash of civilizations." In Bayrou's
    view, the war in Iraq ("a catastrophe the devil himself could
    not have better conceived") is largely to blame for
    polarizing the Muslim world against the West. The feeling
    that a hostile civilization is pressing in on them tempts the
    French to fall back on their traditional, societal values.
    Bayrou wondered aloud if the values of Islam and Europe were
    compatible, speculating that Islamic societies placed
    religious conformity, as represented in the Koran, over the
    aspirations of ordinary people. He said he feared that the
    chasm between those who put man first, and those who saw God
    above all, was unbridgeable.

    THE FRENCH ARE A POLITICAL PEOPLE
    ---------------------------------
    ¶9. (C) As he often does, Bayrou insisted that the French
    have been exceptionally shaped by their highly conflictive
    history. In Bayrou's view, this has made them a
    pre-eminently "political people," not satisfied with mere
    co-existence in a national economy, but rather, intent on
    articulating a "project for society," founded on universal
    values that overcome their differences. He drew out a
    similarity between the U.S. and France from this, pointing
    out that only the Americans and French claim "universality"
    for their social and political ideals, while also seeing
    themselves as unique. He also perceived a similar French
    need to show leadership and be led by strong leaders.

    COMMENT
    -------
    ¶10. (C) In his demeanor and analyses, Bayrou displayed all
    the stolid determination and wily cunning that have kept him
    in the game of French presidential politics, albeit as a
    perennial also-ran. His opponents, President Chirac foremost
    among them, along with the establishments of the center-left
    PS and the center right UMP would mightily like to write off
    Bayrou and the UDF as marginal -- and they can't quite do so.
    A volatile electorate, Bayrou's familiarity and
    effectiveness as a candidate, and his centrist (indeed,
    radically centrist) policy proposals could conspire,
    depending on who also runs in the first round of the 2007
    election, to swell his 7 percent of the vote into double
    digits -- not enough for him to make the second round, but
    enough to make Bayrou's support essential for winning the
    second round if the two second round contenders are evenly
    matched.

    ¶11. (C) Bayrou has not yet articulated a compelling and
    understandable political vision for France; he must do so if
    he is to make himself a credible contender for the
    presidency. While Bayrou showed himself a remarkably astute
    and articulate observer of the political scene, and largely
    accurate in his diagnoses of the ills of French society, he
    was less convincing when it came to proposing what to do.
    When queried on the vision of France's future that he planned
    to put before the electorate, he merely invited the
    Ambassodor to pay close attention to his speeches in coming
    weeks. Similarly, when asked if his strategy for a centrist
    alternative was geared toward winning the next election or
    directed more toward the future, Bayrou responded that his
    strategy was "short-, mid- and long-term."
    Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
    http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

    Hofmann

`