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### Viewing cable 06BOGOTA2030, VALLE GOVERNOR PREDICTS URIBE VICTORY, CRITICIZES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BOGOTA2030 | 2006-03-07 18:06 | 2011-03-10 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bogota
Appears in these articles: http://www.elespectador.com/wikileaks

`

    VZCZCXYZ0005
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBO #2030/01 0661838
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 071838Z MAR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2847
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6600
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 7284
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR 7762
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 3327
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 2805
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 3963
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 1963

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002030

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
    TAGS: PGOV ETRD ECON CO
    SUBJECT: VALLE GOVERNOR PREDICTS URIBE VICTORY, CRITICIZES
    HIS POLO COLLEAGUES, SAYS CONGRESS WILL RATIFY FTA

    Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood.
    Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1.  (C) Prominent moderate leftist Governor of Valle del
    Cauca Department, Angelino Garzon, predicted to poloffs that
    Uribe would win reelection on the first ballot.  Garzon will
    vote for the Polo DemocraticoAlternativo candidate out of
    loyalty rather than conviction.  He criticized national Polo
    Democratico leaders many times, saying they make radical
    statements but have no responsibility for taking tough
    decisions that affect peoples' lives.  Garzon placed himself
    in the "Lula/Vasquez/Bachelet" pragmatic leftist tradition
    and explicitly criticized Venezuelan President Chavez's
    management, which he said was undermining democratic
    institutions.  Garzon said the Congress would ultimately
    ratify the Free Trade Agreement after much debate.  End
    summary.

    --------------------------------------------- --------------
    Uribe Will Win Reelection on First Round, Polo Out of Touch
    --------------------------------------------- --------------

    ¶2.  (C) Garzon predicted Uribe would win reelection in May on
    the first ballot.  During a lunch with poloffs in Cali, he
    said he has supported Uribe many times when the president has
    been attacked unfairly, including when the attacks have
    originated from his own party, the Polo Democratico.  Garzon
    useduribista phrases occasionally, such as, "social
    development cannot take place without security."  He
    characterized his personal relationship with Uribe as
    excellent.

    ¶3.  (C) While Garzon said he would support the Polo candidate
    for president (Antonio Navarro or Carlos Gaviria), he said he
    would do so out of loyalty rather than conviction.  Garzon
    made  a number of negative comments about the Polo,
    suggesting several times that Governors like himself and
    Bogota's Mayor LuchoGarzon were more able representatives of
    the center left because they had to make numerous executive
    decisions that made a difference in peoples' lives.  He said
    he meets regularly with constituents to listen to their
    grievances and insists his staff attend as well so that he
    can assign responsibility for addressing specific voter
    concerns.  In contrast, he said, the Polo's other nationally
    known figures (he mentioned Gustavo Petro) found it easy to
    make "radical" statements because they had no responsibility
    for carrying them out.

    -------------------------
    Model is Lula, not Chavez
    -------------------------

    ¶4.  (C) Garzon said he was firmly in the
    "Lula/Vasquez/Bachelet" strand of pragmatic leftist thought
    ("a positive trend"), and explicitly rejected the manner in
    which Chavez is managing Venezuela.  He said the pragmatic
    left knows the importance of building strong democratic
    institutions, while Chavez personalizes power and weakens
    institutions.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------
    Congress Will Ratify FTA, but Public Outreach Essential
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶5.  (C) Garzon said he expects the Congress to ratify the
    Free Trade Agreement after much debate, but insisted that
    Uribe must educate the public and interest groups on the
    benefits of the treaty and address the concerns of those who
    expect to be losers.  Garzon said the FTA was very good for
    Valle's prominent sugar producers and would help Colombia
    export ethanol to the U.S.  Agriculture and cereal sector
    representatives had already complained to him about the FTA,
    however.  Garzon has discussed ratification with Uribe,
    suggesting that the president hold many public forums to hear
    first hand from affected interests.  The Governor wants to
    host an "academic-type seminar" in Cali at which he plans to
    invite an embassy official and a GOC representative to make
    presentations.  He gave the strong impression that he
    supported the FTA when he said, "we face commercial
    realities," but he was anxious to ensure that perceived
    losers are taken into account.  Garzon said he was prepared

    to play a role in the debate over ratification but he said he
    was not sure what that role would be.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶6.  (C) Garzon is mentioned as a possible presidential
    contender in 2010, if the political pendulum swings left
    after eight years of Uribe.  His comments on issues were
    thoughtful and pragmatic.  Garzon could be a key ally on the
    FTA.  He insisted that Uribe and the GOC more generally must
    conduct extensive outreach, which the president has started
    to do.

    WOOD

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

`