Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 5419 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Yemen Jordan

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/10 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 86 88 89 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1986/05
1988/01
1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
2000/06 2000/09 2000/11
2001/02 2001/03 2001/07 2001/10
2002/02 2002/03 2002/11
2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Amsterdam American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai
Embassy Freetown
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamburg
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy La Paz Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maputo Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan
Embassy New Delhi Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Naples
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Consulate Vladivostok
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AF AE AJ ASEC AMGT AR AU AG AS AM AORC AFIN APER ABUD ATRN AL AEMR ACOA AO AX AMED ADCO AODE AFFAIRS AC ASIG ABLD AA AFU ASUP AROC ATFN AVERY APCS AER ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AEC APECO AGMT
BR BA BE BL BEXP BTIO BM BK BRUSSELS BX BU BO BH BIDEN BY BG BF BB BC BBSR BMGT BTIU BILAT
CH CASC CA CD CV CVIS CMGT CO CI CU CBW CLINTON CE CJAN CIA CG CF CN CS CAN COUNTER CDG CIS CM CONDOLEEZZA COE CR CY CTM COUNTRY CLEARANCE CPAS CWC CT CKGR CB CACS COM CJUS CARSON CL COUNTERTERRORISM CACM CDB
DR DA DHS DOE DEA DK DJ DISENGAGEMENT DS DTRA DOD DEAX
EPET EINV ECON ENRG EAID ETRD EG ETTC EFIN EU EAGR ELAB EIND EUN EAIR ER ECIN ECPS EFIS EI EINT EZ EMIN ET EC ECONEFIN ENVR ES ECA ELN EN EFTA EWWT ELTN EXTERNAL EINVETC ENIV EINN ENGR EUR ESA ENERG EK ENGY ETRO ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ETRDEINVTINTCS ESENV ENVI ELECTIONS ECUN EINVEFIN ECIP EINDETRD EUC EREL
FR FINR FAO FTAA FREEDOM FI FARC FBI FJ FMLN
GH GA GG GM GV GE GT GR GTIP GOI GCC GAZA GZ GANGS GTMO
HU HR HILLARY HA HUMAN HO HYMPSK HURI HK HSTC
IR IZ IS IT INTERPOL IPR IN INRB IAEA IRAJ INRA INRO IO IC ID IIP ITPHUM IV IWC IQ ICTY ISRAELI IRAQI ICRC ICAO IMO IF ILC IEFIN INTELSAT IL IA IBRD IMF INR IRC ITALY ITALIAN
JO JA JOSEPH JP JOHNNIE JUS JAMES
KCOR KZ KDEM KN KNNP KPAL KU KWBG KCRM KE KISL KAWK KSCA KS KSPR KJUS KFRD KTIP KPAO KTFN KIPR KPKO KNUC KMDR KGHG KPLS KOLY KUNR KDRG KIRF KIRC KBIO KHLS KG KACT KGIC KRAD KCOM KMCA KV KHDP KVPR KDEV KWMN KMPI KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KOMC KTLA KCFC KTIA KHIV KPRP KAWC KCIP KCFE KOCI KTDB KMRS KLIG KBCT KICC KGIT KSTC KPAK KNEI KSEP KPOA KFLU KNUP KNNPMNUC KO KTER KSUM KHUM KRFD KBTR KDDG KWWMN KFLO KSAF KBTS KPRV KNPP KNAR KWMM KERG KFIN KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KTBT KCRS KRVC KSTH KREL KNSD KTEX KPAI KHSA KR KPWR KWAC KMIG KSEC KIFR KDEMAF KGCC KPIN
LE LH LY LU LG LI LO LOG LT
MOPS MARR MASS MTCRE MX MCAP MO MNUC ML MR MZ MPOS MOPPS MTCR MAPP MU MY MA MG MASC MCC MEPP MK MTRE MP MIL MDC MAR MEPI MRCRE MI MT MQADHAFI MD MAPS MUCN MASSMNUC MERCOSUR MC
NI NATO NPT NG NL NU NIPP NO NE NS NAR NZ NPG NK NSG NA NT NASA NGO NP NSF NATIONAL
ODIP OIIP OREP OVIP OEXC OPRC OFDP OPDC OTRA OSCE OAS OPIC OECD OPCW OSCI OIE OIC OTR OVP OFFICIALS OSAC
PGOV PINR PREL PTER PK PHUM PE PARM PBIO PINS PREF PSOE PBTS PL PHSA PKFK PO PGOF PROP PA PARMS PORG PM PMIL PTERE POL PF PALESTINIAN PY PGGV PNR POV PAK PAO PFOR PHALANAGE PARTY PRGOV PNAT PROV PEL PINF PGOVE POLINT PRL PRAM PMAR PGOVLO PHUMBA PHUS PHUMPREL PG POLITICS PEPR PSI PINT PU POLITICAL PARTIES PECON POGOV PINL
QA
RS RU RW RP RO RIGHTS RICE ROBERT RF RFE REGION
SCUL SA SY SP SNAR SENV SU SW SOCI SL SG SMIG SO SF SR SN SHUM SZ SYR ST SANC SC SAN SIPRS SK SH SI SNARCS STEINBERG
TX TW TU TSPA TH TIP TI TS TBIO TRGY TC TR TT TERRORISM TO TFIN TD TSPL TZ TPHY TK TNGD TINT TRSY TP
UK UG UP UV US UN UNSC UNGA USEU USUN UY UZ UNO UNMIK UNESCO UE UAE UNEP USTR UNHCR UNDP UNHRC USAID UNCHS UNAUS UNCHC
VT VE VZ VM VTPREL VN
WTRO WA WI WZ WMO WTRQ WHO WWARD WB WBG WEU WHA WTO
XA XF XT XM XY XG XC XH XL XZ XW XR XD XE XK XS
YM YI YE
ZB ZI ZP ZK ZF ZANU ZOELLICK ZR ZU ZA ZO ZJ

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 08MADRID186, SPANISH REACTION TO KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08MADRID186.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08MADRID186 | 2008-02-21 09:09 | 2010-12-13 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Madrid

`

    VZCZCXRO3415
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHMD #0186/01 0520909
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 210909Z FEB 08
    FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4297
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA PRIORITY 3317

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000186

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    KOSOVO MONITORING GROUP

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
    TAGS: PREL UNMIK UN PGOV YI EU KV SP
    SUBJECT: SPANISH REACTION TO KOSOVO'S INDEPENDENCE

    REF: A. STATE 16319
    ¶B. MADRID 174
    ¶C. MADRID 162

    MADRID 00000186 001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: DCM Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: FM Moratinos' Chief of Staff Javier Sancho
    told DCM February 20 that it was politically impossible for
    Spain to support the Kosovar UDI at this time, and that this
    is the position of both the ruling PSOE government and the
    opposition Partido Popular (PP). Sancho said the Spanish
    have tried to be as constructive as possible in Brussels and
    have stuck to the position they have consistently elaborated
    with high-level USG officials in Washington and Madrid:
    UNSCR 1244 does not provide for a unilateral declaration of
    independence by Kosovo; therefore, Spain wants a new UNSCR or
    a negotiated settlement between the parties. Nevertheless,
    Sancho said, Spain did not try to oppose an EU statement on
    Kosovo in Brussels, instead crafting a consensus text that
    focuses on the EU's commitment to the Balkans while leaving
    the issue of recognition to the individual member states.
    The GOS will continue to support KFOR, EULEX, and the OSCE
    presence in Kosovo. Sancho said this is the final GOS
    position on Kosovo until after the elections. If Zapatero
    wins reelection, the GOS will be willing to discuss further
    avenues for progress toward peace and stability in the
    Balkans and to work constructively with the U.S. Ambassador
    Aguirre will have lunch with Deputy FM Bernardino Leon
    February 21 and will press Leon on how Spain can move forward
    in the Balkans after the elections. END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. (C) The DCM delivered ref A demarche to Javier Sancho,
    Chief of Staff to Foreign Minister Moratinos. Moratinos, who
    is running for Parliament representing Cordoba, was
    unavailable from the campaign trail in Andalucia as he was
    under the weather.

    ¶3. (C) Sancho told the DCM that it was politically
    impossible for the GOS to support Kosovo's unilateral
    declaration of independence in the middle of a hotly
    contested campaign, and to have expected otherwise was not
    realistic. Sancho noted that both the ruling PSOE government
    and the opposition PP opposed the UDI and had said so
    publicly numerous times in the months leading to February 17.
    Sancho said that the GOS had maintained this position
    consistently both in Brussels and with high-level USG
    officials, but had tried to be as constructive as possible in
    supporting an EU consensus. Sancho noted that Moratinos had
    led the GAERC in producing a consensus conclusion on Kosovo
    that did not discuss recognition, when he could have proposed
    a text opposing the UDI.

    ¶4. (C) Sancho told the DCM that there would be no more
    public statements from the MFA on their Kosovo position prior
    to the elections, adding that the GOS wants it out of the
    headlines. If Zapatero wins reelection March 9, Sancho said
    the GOS would be open to further discussions on working with
    the U.S. and toward EU consensus for peace and stability in
    the Balkans.

    //MORATINOS PRESS COMMENTS//

    ¶5. (U) Major international and Spanish media seized on
    Moratinos' comments in Brussels prior to entering the
    February 18 GAERC, in which he said, "The Spanish government
    will not recognize the unilateral act proclaimed yesterday by
    the Kosovar assembly, and it will not recognize it because we
    do not believe it respects international legality... The
    Spanish government has always defended respect for
    international legality. It defended it when it decided to
    withdraw troops from Iraq, and it defends it again now when
    talking about the secession of a state... If you examine the
    nations who are against this recognition, they are the
    countries that know best and are the most similar to the West
    Balkans."

    ¶6. (U) Moratinos went on to say that Kosovar independence
    would be legal if brought about by a new UNSCR or by a
    negotiated agreement between the parties, and that Spain
    wished to uphold the international principle of territorial
    integrity. He also said Spain would continue to support
    stability and security for the Balkans. The GOS has stated
    that it will maintain its presence in KFOR and its support
    for EULEX and the OSCE mission in Kosovo.

    ¶7. (U) Asked by reporters February 19 whether Spain's
    elections impacted its policy on Kosovo, Moratinos denied
    this and said, "Yesterday we made a proposal to guarantee a
    minimum of unity among EU partners, and above all, to support
    and monitor stability and security in the region, which is

    MADRID 00000186 002.2 OF 003

    part of Europe and which we are interested in preserving and
    guaranteeing."

    //SPANISH ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT//

    ¶8. (U) As both the GOS and the PP predicted privately to
    post, Kosovo's independence has prompted numerous provocative
    statements by nationalist parties in the Basque Country and
    Catalonia. Catalan Left (ERC) spokesman Joan Ridao said
    February 18 that Kosovo was "a very important precedent" for
    Catalonia and the Basque Country, adding that "when the
    people want independence, it must be accepted... Any country
    or nation under the scope of the EU in the 21st century can
    achieve its independence if it is democratically decided...
    no one can avoid this." In a blog entry entitled, "Spain
    does not have the balls to send tanks against us," ERC
    Parliamentarian Joan Puig wrote that Kosovo was "another
    proof that our nation will be independent if a political and
    social majority decides it. Spain understands this very
    clearly, which is why it has reacted in this way." Josep
    Carod-Rovira, vice president of the Catalan Generalitat and
    renowned Catalanista, called on the GOS to recognize Kosovo
    as soon as possible on January 18, as did Artur Mas, the
    president of Catalan centrist party Convergence and Union
    (CiU). On February 20, representatives from CiU and ERC
    announced they would travel to Kosovo to "study the secession
    process."

    ¶9. (U) Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) spokeswoman Miren
    Azkarate said Kosovo's independence was "a lesson in how to
    resolve conflicts of identity and belonging in a peaceful,
    democratic manner... the will of the people is the key to
    resolving entrenched political problems... Kosovo is a new
    example of the vigor of the democratic right to self
    determination enshrined in international law, and it betrays
    once more those who maintain that this right does not exist
    in democratic nations."

    ¶10. (U) By contrast, the PP has maintained staunch unity in
    its position against Kosovo's independence. PP founder and
    elder statesman Manuel Fraga said February 19 that Spain must
    not support Kosovo because one could "draw the same
    conclusions about Spain in (the Basque town of) Galdakano or
    in a Catalan town. Spain cannot accept that any group
    whatsoever can declare itself independent with all the
    complications this has implied" in the Balkans. Fraga also
    called on the GOS to withdraw its forces from KFOR.

    ¶11. (U) PP President and presidential candidate Mariano
    Rajoy said February 18 that Spain "should not send or
    maintain the presence of civilian officials" in Kosovo after
    its UDI, which he said was "contrary to international
    legality." Speaking on a conservative news program, Rajoy
    said, "If there is no agreement between the parties and no
    new resolution from the UN Security Council, this is against
    international legality, such that I believe Spain should not
    recognize Kosovo as an independent state." Rajoy went on to
    add that the situation had nothing to do with nationalist
    movements in Spain. He said, "Spain is the oldest nation in
    Europe with more than 500 years of history... In Kosovo there
    is a military and religious conflict, and here there is
    absolutely nothing of the sort." The next day, February 19,
    Rajoy took it one step further, calling on President Zapatero
    and Moratinos to explain the "incongruity" of opposing
    Kosovo's independence yet maintaining support for
    international missions to Kosovo. He added that he would
    have preferred "that Spanish diplomats had better managed
    this fight."

    ¶12. (U) Gustavo de Aristegui, PP foreign affairs expert and
    ranking member of the Spanish Foreign Affairs Commission,
    wrote February 18 in EL MUNDO that, "the unilateral
    declaration of independence is unacceptable, illegal and a
    defiance to the peace and stability of all of Europe."

    //MAINSTREAM EDITORIAL PRESS//

    ¶13. (U) The tone across the entire political spectrum of
    Spanish press expressed concern for the potential
    ramifications in Spain and Europe. An ABC editorial
    declared, "Kosovo is going to be an economic and political
    burden for the European Union, but a sweet gift for the U.S.,
    which will have a new ally and a gigantic military base in
    the only majority-Muslim country in the world where U.S.
    flags are sold in kiosks." A February 18 editorial in
    liberal EL Publico stated, "The negotiations of the Spanish
    foreign ministry and of Aznar failed in Washington. The
    attempts to convince the U.S. of the danger that independence
    implies did not convince." Pilar Bonet wrote in the Catalan
    paper LA VANGUARDIA February 18, "Kosovo's independence opens

    MADRID 00000186 003.2 OF 003

    up a Pandora's box and reopens healed wounds in the
    territorial configuration of the successor states to the
    Soviet Union." Andres Ortega wrote in EL PAIS February 18,
    "More than a declaration of independence it seems like a
    declaration of dependence. Kosovo does not appear to be a
    prepared or viable country." A February 20 op-ed in
    conservative La Razon stated, "Europe has set a very
    dangerous precedent, one that will affect the territorial
    integrity of some nations that have supported the process."
    EL PAIS published a February 20 op-ed stating, "Kosovo is
    today an 'Ulster' in its potential for nuclear combustion in
    the Balkans and beyond." Julia Navarro wrote in a February
    19 op-ed for wire service Europa Press, "In Spain we can
    already start soaking our beards; Kosovo's independence will
    have consequences on our country, more so now that all the
    politicians have said you cannot compare one situation with
    the other. We all know you can, and that it is simply a
    question of a few soulless rulers in the United States and
    the European Union deciding one day that in Spain there are
    other Kosovos."

    //WELL, SO WHAT?//

    ¶14. (C) If the leftist and nationalist parties are happy
    about Kosovo's independence, if the PSOE government needs the
    leftist and nationalist parties to form a coalition
    government after the elections, and if all mainstream parties
    agree that Spain and Kosovo are not the same, then what is
    the PSOE government so worried about? The answer lies in the
    PSOE's need to assure the centrist, mainstream Spanish voter
    that all of the PP's accusations about Zapatero "Balkanizing"
    Spain and "presiding over the dissolution of the 500 year old
    Spanish kingdom" are groundless. By recognizing Kosovo prior
    to the elections, the GOS would have opened itself up to
    renewed attacks from the right about pandering to nationalist
    minorities, when in fact the PSOE gains nothing electoral by
    joining nationalist minorities on Kosovo. These minority
    parties will have no choice but to join with the PSOE after
    the election if they hope to govern. The nationalist parties
    are understandably pumping up the issue to increase their
    turnout, but they too understand the state of play.

    ¶15. (C) The PSOE's biggest fear is not criticism from the
    left but abstention from the center. Low turnout by
    distraught left-leaning centrists combined with the strong
    mobilization of the "king and country" PP base would put a
    PSOE victory at risk. In this sense, the PP has left no
    wiggle room whatsoever by laying out clear markers, including
    by former President Aznar, that the PSOE would not be able to
    slide by on EU consensus on Kosovo. Speculation about how
    Kosovo might have fared under the PP is somewhat pointless,
    but all indications are that a Rajoy government would have
    been no more amenable to a UDI had the matter been pushed
    until after the elections. In any case, the PP can now argue
    that Kosovo's independence is bad for Spain and that the
    Zapatero government was too weak internationally to prevent
    it.

    ¶16. (C) For its part, the GOS is caught in a logical trap -
    how to reconcile their continuing military and civilian
    presence in Kosovo with their refusal to recognize Kosovo's
    right to independence. As statements by nationalist
    politicians and editorials by mainstream Spaniards show, this
    issue is not completely foreign to Spanish politics, and the
    average Spaniard does not want Kosovo to imply a precedent
    for the Basque Country and Catalonia. Their best option, and
    the one which they are following, is to keep Zapatero out of
    it, get the issue out of the headlines, and move on.
    Moratinos, Defense Minister Alonso, and former Defense
    Minister Pepe Bono have done the heavy lifting. Moratinos
    even earned rare praise from French FM Kouchner who said "the
    Spaniards were intelligent and generous" in their maneuvering
    at the GAERC.

    //NEXT MOVES//

    ¶17. (C) The PSOE caught a break with the February 19
    announcement of Fidel Castro's resignation, which takes
    Kosovo off the front page in Spain and also allows Zapatero
    and the GOS to engage the rhetorical machine on how Spain
    must help Cuba toward democracy. Additionally, their policy
    of engagement, while obviously not a driving force in
    Castro's resignation, enhances GOS credibility with the
    pro-Cuban Spanish populace, as well as with the pro-Castro
    far-left.

    ¶18. (C) Ambassador Aguirre will have lunch with Deputy FM
    Bernardino Leon February 21 and will press Leon on how Spain
    can move forward in the Balkans after the elections.
    AGUIRRE

`