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### Viewing cable 04THEHAGUE1919, NETHERLANDS/EU/TURKEY: MOVING IN THE RIGHT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04THEHAGUE1919 | 2004-07-30 15:03 | 2011-01-26 17:05 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy The Hague

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001919

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2014
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM TK NL EUN
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU/TURKEY:  MOVING IN THE RIGHT
    DIRECTION

    REF: USEU 3226

    Classified By: A...

    19303

    2004-07-30

    04THEHAGUE1919

    Embassy The Hague

    CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN

    04USEUBRUSSELS3226

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001919

    SIPDIS

    NOFORN

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2014
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM TK NL EUN
    SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU/TURKEY: MOVING IN THE RIGHT
    DIRECTION

    REF: USEU 3226

    Classified By: Amb. Clifford Sobel for reasons 1.4(B) AND (D).

    ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: According to Dutch sources, the European
    Council will most likely decide in December to open accession
    talks with Turkey, setting a fixed starting date contingent
    on Turkey's completion of specific concrete reforms. Senior
    Dutch officials based in The Hague are playing an active role
    in guiding the drafting of the European Commission's October
    report. In this poker game, the Government of Cyprus remains
    one possible wild card. End Summary.

    ¶2. (C/NF) In recent discussions with Ambassador Sobel, Rob
    Swartbol (PM Balkenende's senior foreign policy advisor) has
    given clear indications that the Dutch are seeking to guide
    the EU toward a positive (albeit conditional) decision to
    begin accession talks with Turkey. In separate discussions
    following EUR DAS Laura Kennedy's meetings in Brussels
    (reftel), Poloff received similar signals from Pieter de
    Gooijer, Dutch MFA rep for European Integration (please
    protect), and Hannie Pollmann-Zaal.

    YES TO TURKEY...
    ------------------

    ¶3. (C/NF) On July 29, Swartbol told Ambassador Sobel that he
    believed the EU could set an October, 2005 date for opening
    accession talks with Turkey. He asserted that nearly all EU
    member states recognized that Turkey would receive a yes
    decision from the EU, although some still hoped to push the
    date for starting talks back one or two years; this, however,
    would be a mistake, he said. Swartbol predicted actual
    accession negotiations from 6 to 8 years plus two and
    suggested that -- contrary to usual practice -- the EU would
    probably try to address some of the toughest issues (like
    immigration) early in the process rather than waiting until
    the end. Swartbol said that the EU would be careful not to
    talk about a 10-year process publicly in deference to Turkish
    sensitivities.

    ¶4. (C/NF) Swartbol revealed that the Turks had been
    consulted about the proposed conditions and timetable
    described above, but they had not yet agreed. Several EU
    members also remained unconvinced. EU Commissioner
    Verheugen, he said, would go to Turkey in September to try to
    gain Turkish support for the EC report.

    ...WITH QUALIFICATIONS
    ----------------------

    ¶5. (C/NF) Swartbol and de Gooijer confirmed that most EU
    Members assume the Commission will appraise Turkey's success
    with the Copenhagen Criteria as virtually, almost, or
    just about. It is impossible to imagine a no, de Gooijer
    said. The Dutch cannot imagine an unqualified yes, either,
    listing outstanding issues such as judges' behavior, concerns
    about torture, access of Kurds to Kurdish language education,
    free exercise of religion, and the role of the military.

    ¶6. (C/NF) The question remains what the Council will do with
    these areas of improvement. The Dutch anticipate the EU
    Yes will come with one list of goals for Turkey to reach
    within six to eight months before starting negotiations and a
    second list of other items that could slow the process down
    if Turkey did not make progress toward achieving them.
    Swartbol noted that the EU would ensure that negotiations
    would tackle the tough issues identified in the impact
    statement.

    ¶7. (C/NF) De Gooijer cautioned that Turkey should
    concentrate on the yes and the date parts of the
    recommendation and not be overly-concerned by the
    blah-blah-blah that follows it where the Council may list
    must-do items for the Turks.

    EU AND DUTCH POLITICS: MORE FOR THAN AGAINST
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶8. (C/NF) Swartbol cited France, Austria, Denmark (where the
    Prime Minister is the problem) and the Netherlands as still
    needing more work on the domestic front. While the Dutch, in
    the Presidency role, will strive for objectivity in public
    and eschew overt statements about what Dutch preferences or
    strategies, de Gooijer said to watch for Dutch signals. He
    recalled PM Balkenende's July 21 Strasbourg Parliament
    speech, where he rejected prejudice against Islam as a basis
    for opposing Turkey. De Gooijer allowed how he had written,
    championed, and insured inclusion of the following lines,
    which he proudly reported received warm applause that day:
    We must not allow ourselves to be guided by fear, for
    example, of Islam. Raising barriers to any particular
    religion does not fit in with Europe's shared values. Our
    opposition should be directed not against religions but
    against people and groups misusing their religion to get
    their way by force.

    ¶9. (C/NF) Swartbol said that potential divisions within the
    Dutch government had largely been resolved, thanks in part to
    Verheugen's (quiet) briefing of the Dutch cabinet. De
    Gooijer agreed that the Dutch government will ultimately
    support accession; Pollman was not so sure. Both feel that
    momentum toward Yes is lacking. Pollman alerted us that
    the constituents of some cabinet ministers could be tending
    negative, meaning the ministers would have to convince them
    otherwise or vote and anger the base. De Gooijer and Pollman
    predicted any opponents will eventually modify positions
    enough to be able to wag their fingers and say, We have
    serious problems with this and if it does not work out, well,
    we told you so.

    THE TIMING OF THE WRITING OF THE REPORT
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶10. (C/NF) De Gooijer (please protect) confirmed that
    Commission officers have been on the ground in Turkey in July
    surveying conditions across the full matrix of issues. The
    various arms of the Commission will complete individual parts
    of the report during August and give it to Verheugen, who
    will collate the parts and circulate a complete draft in
    early September. He will present a final draft to the full
    Commission on October 6. The Commission will present it to
    the Council thereafter, by November.

    ¶11. (C/NF) Both Swartbol and de Gooijer said that the Dutch
    (as President) and the Commission were trying to stay in sync
    on the report, meaning that the Dutch will have large
    influence over all aspects of it. De Gooijer added that the
    Commission is loathe to get out in front of the Presidency on
    any issue, especially one like this. Swartbol, while
    cautioning that the Dutch did not hold the pen, was also
    confident that the report would not hold any surprises for
    the presidency. (Note: Ambassador Sobel stressed that it
    should not hold any surprises for us or Turkey either, and
    pressed Swartbol to ensure that the process was as
    transparent as possible.)

    WILD CARD CYPRUS
    ----------------

    ¶12. (C/NF) Pollman suggested the EU might give the GoC, as
    an EU Member State, its due on the Cyprus trade and financial
    support issues while then expecting Papadopoulos to relent on
    Turkey. However, EU partners do not really engage on Cyprus
    since only the UK has any real interest in the island, she
    said, adding, What does Cyprus have these days, besides the
    Turkey card? And this means the EU has but little leverage
    over Cyprus; Pollman hoped that powers outside the EU will
    pressure Popadopolous to support Turkish accession, using
    whatever psychological, political, or other means that might
    work.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶13. (C/NF) The Dutch governing elite want a Yes for
    Turkey and they seem confident that they can bring the nation
    as well as the rest of the EU along. There is finesse at the
    top, as seen in de Gooijer's handling of the Islam question
    for PM Balkenende. There are many variables open and many
    forces at work, but the trends -- at least for now -- seem to
    be moving in the right direction.
    SOBEL

`