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### Viewing cable 05PARIS1667, FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER VEDRINE ON "DECISIVE YEAR"

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PARIS1667 | 2005-03-14 11:11 | 2011-02-10 08:08 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Paris
Appears in these articles: http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/documents-wikileaks/article/2011/02/09/wikileaks-les-visiteurs-de-l-ambassade_1477418_1446239.htm

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001667

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2015
    TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM KWBG IS SY LE IZ IR FR EUN
    SUBJECT: FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER VEDRINE ON "DECISIVE YEAR"
    FOR U.S. POLICY

    Classified By: Ambassador Howard H. Leach for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine told
    Ambassador Leach March 11 that Europe was beginning to ask
    itself whether the Bush Administration's pursuit of democracy
    and reform in the Arab world and elsewhere might be bearing
    fruit. Elections in Iraq and the Palestinian territories,
    the Orange revolution in Ukraine and the pro-democracy
    opposition movement in Lebanon had even the most skeptical
    European governments adjusting their policy towards the U.S.,
    with France under Jacques Chirac at the top of the list.
    Nevertheless, Vedrine said that the jury was still out and
    that the last half of 2005 would show conclusively whether
    U.S. policy in Iraq, in support of Israeli-Palestinian peace,
    and for the restoration of Lebanese democracy would be
    successful. He also cautioned that "brutal" U.S. tactics in
    the Arab world could as easily lead to confrontation and
    chaotic change. He foresaw potential "serious conflict" with
    Iran, unpredictable consequences if the Basher al Assad
    government were to fall in Syria, and a degradation in
    U.S.-European relations if Israeli Prime Minister Sharon
    tries to make Gaza first Gaza only. Vedrine described
    Russian President Putin as a partner for the West, albeit
    imperfect. He was sympathetic to U.S. strategic concerns in
    East Asia related to EU plans to lift the China arms embargo.
    Finally, Vedrine offered some thoughts on France's 2007
    presidential race. End summary.

    ¶2. (C) Former Foreign Minister Vedrine, who served in
    Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin's 1997-2002
    "co-habitation" government under President Chirac, told
    Ambassador Leach over lunch March 11 that the European visits
    of President Bush and Secretary Rice had done much to improve
    the tone of U.S.-European relations. Even more important
    than the atmospheric changes we're now seeing is the growing
    discussion in Europe whether Bush Administration policy in
    support of democracy and reform in the Arab world and
    elsewhere is beginning to bear fruit. Successsful elections
    in Iraq and the Palestinian territories and the Lebanese
    opposition's push for Syrian withdrawal stand as significant
    accomplishments. In none of these cases, however, is success
    assured, Vedrine cautioned. The last half of 2005 would be
    decisive for U.S. policy in Iraq, it would see whether PM
    Sharon was prepared to implement his Gaza withdrawal plan and
    begin to pull back from the West Bank, and it would reveal
    whether Lebanon would be able to free itself of Syrian
    domination.

    ¶3. (C) Of these challenges, Vedrine identified the
    Israeli-Palestinian peace process as central. Progress here
    could dramatically improve U.S. relations with the Arab
    world. But continued U.S. pressure on Israel will be
    critical to success. The U.S. must insist that Israel give
    the Palestinians a real prospect of forming a viable state.
    If Sharon stops all movement once the Gaza withdrawal is
    complete, the situation will rapidly degrade and
    U.S.-European relations will suffer, Vedrine said. Vedrine
    agreed with the Ambassador's suggestion that both Israelis
    and Palestinians should be encouraged to take steps towards
    peace. But he said that their capacities to respond were
    different. Israel was a strong democratic state and its
    elected government would be able to implement any commitment
    it made. The Palestinian Authority, by contrast, lacks most
    of the attributes of a state and is little able to impose its
    authority on rejectionist groups in the territories.
    Palestinian President Abbas "needs more than just pressure,"
    Vedrine said, he needs to be able to show results. Peace is
    in Israel's interest, so it must be prepared to continue its
    negotiation with the PA, even if it is attacked. Israel
    "cannot allow terrorists to dictate the agenda."
    Undoubtedly, Sharon has a political problem, but so did
    Itzhak Rabin, who did not allow inevitable isolated terrorist
    attacks to deter him. Vedrine said he personally liked
    Sharon, found him truthful, and believed therefore that one
    could work with him. But encouraging him to move beyond the
    Gaza withdrawal would fall to the U.S.; Europe could be
    helpful in assisting the Palestinians to manage affairs in
    Gaza once the Israelis left.

    ¶4. (C) Iraq, said Vedrine, presented a different set of
    challenges. The legislative elections had been a success.
    If the U.S. could also make a success of the efforts to
    reconcile Sunnis and Shiites over a constitution -- the more
    important issue for Iraq's future -- most Europeans would be
    prepared to acknowledge that U.S. policy had been right all
    along in Iraq. Asked whether he perceived any concrete,
    supportive steps in Iraq from Chirac, Vedrine said he thought
    the French president would be prepared to offer any form of
    assistance short of military. But, Vedrine cautioned, the
    U.S. "has not won yet." There is still a danger that Iraq
    will descend into civil war or that a fundamentalist Islamist
    government will take power. The jury is still out. Just as
    in Iraq, America's "brutal policy" in Syria and Lebanon could
    lead to positive change -- "or to disaster."

    ¶5. (C) The Bashr al-Assad regime in Syria was "incapable of
    reform," Vedrine said. Bashar, himself, was a prisoner of
    the system and not in complete control. His survival, like
    Syria's, was dependent on maintaining Damascus' hold on
    Lebanon. Economically and politically, this was essential.
    The U.S. and France had to understand that getting Syrian
    forces out of Lebanon would be just the first step.
    Moreover, it is not clear that the Lebanese will be able to
    bring sufficient pressure to bear to do this themselves.
    They are also fearful that should they try, Syria will exact
    a heavy price. Therefore, Vedrine said, the U.S. and France
    have to understand that if we start down the path of pushing
    the Syrians, "we will have to go all the way." Reaching a
    good solution for Lebanon "will require regime change in
    Syria," Vedrine said, but pursuit of that policy in Syria
    would be just as complex and uncertain as it has proved in
    Iraq. If the current regime stays in power, however, "we
    won't change a thing" in Lebanon.

    ¶6. (C) The U.S. and France should be honest with each other
    about what we seek in Lebanon and we should carefully think
    through consequences. France, for example, does not agree
    with the U.S. policy of bringing about democratic change in
    the Arab world. Chirac's policy towards Lebanon is not
    determined by any commitment to ideology -- democratic or
    otherwise. When former Prime Minister Hariri argued the
    necessity of placating Syria, Chirac followed him. When
    Hariri decided shortly before his assassination to oppose
    Syria, Chirac moved to opposition with him. Vedrine said he
    personally was attracted to the democracy doctrine. There
    have been lots of examples of attempts to transform the Arab
    world, Vedrine said, and none of them has been successful.
    Nevertheless, the idea of promoting freedom and building
    democracy was "seductive" and "tempting," Vedrine said, while
    adding that his attitude was not typical of that of the
    French political class, which tended to be much more
    skeptical. Vedrine said he has argued in speeches that the
    U.S. fails to understand the complexities of the world,
    whereas Europe fails to understand the world's toughness. On
    balance, the advantage probably goes to the U.S., because
    Europe's need to delve into the complexities of issues acts
    as a brake on its will to act.

    ¶7. (C) Asked for his thoughts on Russian President Putin's
    turn towards authoritarian rule, Vedrine argued for
    pragmatism. Putin remains an important partner for the West,
    albeit an imperfect one. He is rational, even "cold" in his
    analysis of events, "and this can be useful," Vedrine said.
    The subject, he added, is one that divides Europeans, along
    classic old Europe/new Europe lines. France, Germany, Italy,
    the UK and other older EU members generally see Putin's
    Russia as a partner and a source of energy products. Former
    Warsaw Pact EU members neighboring Russia, with their direct
    experience of Soviet rule, are much more wary.

    ¶8. (C) After asking whether U.S. political differences with
    China would lead us to impose trade sanctions on Beijing,
    Vedrine deployed some fairly standard French talking points
    in defense of EU plans to lift its arms embargo on China.
    Vedrine argued that there would be no rush to sell lethal
    weaponry to China if the embargo were lifted, asserting that
    the EU's Code of Conduct, which has been strengthened, would
    provide sufficient checks on European sellers. Vedrine
    seemed to shift, however, when the Ambassador noted Beijings
    big increase in weapons acquisitions in recent years, and its
    ratcheting up of tensions over Taiwan. Vedrine acknowledged
    that, unlike Europe, the U.S. had strategic interests and
    commitments in East Asia, and recognized the consequences for
    the U.S. if the Asian military balance was disturbed. He
    suggested that the U.S. and Europe talk with each other
    seriously about a long-term joint strategy for dealing with
    China. He also suggested that Japan might well decide to
    consider whether it needed a nuclear deterrent as China
    expanded its ambitions and capabilities in the region.

    ¶9. (C) Finally, Vedrine addressed European and domestic
    political issues. He said that he believed French voters
    would back the EU constitution in the May 29 referendum. He
    said he expected a high rate of abstention, and a small but
    clear win for the yes. A "no" vote would send France into a
    "psychological crisis" because the country heretofore
    regarded as a central driving force of European integration
    would be seen by fellow Europeans as a "traitor" to the
    cause. In reality, however, the constitution draft offers
    only marginal improvements over the current Nice Treaty
    arrangements, and thus a no vote "would not be the end of the
    world." Turning to France's 2007 presidential elections,
    Vedrine said he expected the Socialist Party candidate to be
    either party First Secretary Francois Hollande or Former PM
    Jospin. Hollande, despite having been at the helm of the
    Socialist Party through two electoral victories this year
    (regional and European elections) and an internal party vote
    in favor of supporting the EU constitution, is still not the
    unchallenged leader of the party. If, as the election
    approaches, Socialists perceive that they will not be able to
    defeat the center-right candidate, there could well be a move
    to draft Jospin, which Hollande himself could support. On
    the center-right UMP side, Vedrine said it could well be that
    Chirac and UMP party president Nicolas Sarkozy both run, thus
    splitting the center-right vote. Such an outcome,
    hypothetically, could produce a second round contest between
    Jospin and the candidate who knocked him out of the second
    round voting in 2002, far right National Front leader
    Jean-Marie Le Pen. In order to avoid such an outcome,
    Vedrine said he thought Chirac could ultimately withdraw and
    allow Sarkozy, France's most popular politician, to be the
    center-right standard-bearer.
    Leach

`