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### Viewing cable 09BUENOSAIRES1008, C) CARLOS REUTEMANN, ARGENTINA'S RELUCTANT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09BUENOSAIRES1008 | 2009-09-04 15:03 | 2011-02-04 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Buenos Aires

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBU #1008/01 2471506
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 041506Z SEP 09
    FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4311
    INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    CC O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001008

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2039
    TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR KPAO AR
    SUBJECT: (C) CARLOS REUTEMANN, ARGENTINA'S RELUCTANT
    PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER

    REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 0750
    ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 0794 AND PREVIOUS
    ¶C. 08 BUENOS AIRES 0737 AND PREVIOUS
    ¶D. BUENOS AIRES 0984
    ¶E. BUENOS AIRES 0942
    ¶F. BUENOS AIRES 971

    Classified By: CDA Tom Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).

    ¶1. (C) Summary: Peronist dissident -- and presumptive 2011
    frontrunner for his party's presidential nomination --
    Senator Carlos Reutemann from Santa Fe province shared his
    views with the CDA on the 2011 presidential race and the
    post-midterms strategy of President Cristina Fernandez de
    Kirchner (CFK) and her husband, former president Nestor
    Kirchner (NK). Reutemann, who rejected an offer to run for
    the presidency in 2003, avoided addressing his own
    presidential aspirations, preferring to speak at length about
    how NK is creating "a minefield" for Argentina's next
    President and predicted that it would be difficult to "return
    to normality" once the Kirchners leave office. Reutemann
    criticized the CFK administration for misinterpreting the
    results of the June midterms in which the Kirchner-allied
    Victory Front (FpV) alliance suffered an electoral defeat
    (ref A). The Senator mused that the more the press
    emphasizes the Kirchners' loss -- i.e., that 70% did not vote
    for the government -) the more the Kirchners react. He
    added that the Kirchners are seeking to regain the political
    initiative following the FpV's electoral defeat, citing
    recent political victories as reenergizing NK. Informal but
    reserved, the pro-American Reutemann is by all accounts a
    different breed of Argentine politician. Despite the
    enthusiasm among many in the PJ ranks for his candidacy in
    2011, the Senator appears ambivalent about running and
    assuming the presidency in the aftermath of the Kirchners.
    End Summary.

    The Reluctant Candidate
    -----------------------

    ¶2. (C) CDA Kelly met August 27 with Peronist dissident, Santa
    Fe Senator Carlos Reutemann, who was accompanied by his
    longtime aide, national deputy-elect Celia Arena. Reutemann,
    67, who is referred to as "Lole" by friends and supporters,
    is well-known in Argentina for his former career as a Formula
    One racing champion. In 2008, the laconic Reutemann was one
    of the first Peronists to break ranks with President Cristina
    Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) and her husband, former president
    Nestor Kirchner (NK), during the government's extended
    conflict with the farm sector. In recent weeks, Reutemann
    has been headline news as speculation raged over his
    potential 2011 presidential candidacy. In 2003, Reutemann
    declined then-President Eduardo Duhalde's offer to make him
    the PJ candidate for President, offering only the cryptic and
    now legendary remark, "I saw something I didn't like," as his
    explanation for bowing out.

    ¶3. (SBU) This year, immediately before the June 28 elections
    (ref A), Reutemann said he intended to run for president in
    2011, but since then he has avoided comment about such
    aspirations. At the same time, he has publicly rebuked
    those, like former President Eduardo Duhalde, who are
    pressing him to run. During an August 24 radio interview,
    Reutemann publicly expressed exasperation with what he
    perceived as behind-the-scenes machinations by Duhalde and
    others to force his hand. Usually cool and taciturn,
    Reutemann unleashed some choice expletives, saying he "could
    not give a damn" about the country's future and "they can
    take that candidacy and shove it up their a--." In the June
    midterms, Reutemann was re-elected to his third Senate tour
    after narrowly beating Santa Fe Governor Hermes Binner's
    candidate, socialist Ruben Giustiniani by 1.37 points (42.07%
    to 40.7%).

    On the 2011 Presidential Race: Not Exactly Raring to Go
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶4. (C) Describing himself as "not the traditional political
    type," Reutemann avoided directly addressing his presidential
    aspirations while providing several reasons not to run. He
    said that NK is creating "a minefield" for Argentina's next
    President, citing the nationalization of the private pension
    plans and the GOA's agricultural export tax policy. He added
    that NK has the capacity to cause "significant damage" before
    the next President assumes office. Reutemann predicted that
    it will be challenging to demobilize rabble-rousing piquetero
    social activists Luis D'Elia and Emilio Persico in national
    politics, on whom he claimed the Kirchners are increasingly
    reliant (ref B). Reutemann described Buenos Aires province
    as "a mess," remarking that it will be difficult "to return

    to normality" once the Kirchners have left office. To make
    matters worse, he continued, Argentines want "a savior to
    come and fix everything in 24 hours."

    ¶5. (C) Deputy-elect Arena saw the future as less dire. She
    noted that although there will be economic issues to address,
    a newly elected president should have legislative support to
    overturn much Kirchner-era legislation. As an example, she
    noted that if the controversial audiovisual bill gets
    approved, it will take over two years to implement, giving
    the next presidential administration time to annul it.
    (Note: After a 90-day public hearing period, CFK sent the
    revised audiovisual bill to Congress on August 27. The
    legislation, which among other changes would reduce the
    licenses that one media organization can hold from 24 to 10,
    is criticized by the opposition and media for limiting
    freedom of expression -- ref C.)

    ¶6. (C) As to other presidential contenders, Reutemann said
    that the PJ is looking for an independent Peronist as an
    alternative. Nonetheless, he maintained that the current
    political situation, as well as the 2011 presidential race,
    represented a "final battle between Duhalde and NK." CDA
    pressed Reutemann on this point, observing that Duhalde's
    unpopularity made it seem unlikely that he would actually be
    a presidential candidate. At best, he could aspire to be a
    kingmaker, and not necessarily the predominan tone at that.
    Deputy Elect Arena agreed with this anaylsis, but Reutemann
    dmurred, cautioning that Duhalde should not be counted out as
    a potential candidate.

    ¶7. (C) Reutemann noted that the PJ needs to have an internal
    election to nominate a candidate, but that "the rules of the
    game" are not clear yet. He explained that in past
    elections, the party has picked candidates differently. For
    example, he explained the PJ used a party primary to select
    Carlos Menem as its presidential candidate in 1989, a
    congressional consensus to pick Duhalde in 2002, and a party
    congress in 2007 for CFK. (Note: In 2003, courts kept the PJ
    from holding a caucus or primary. Since Peronists could not
    agree on a candidate, three different Peronist candidates, NK
    among them, ran in the first round of general elections. NK,
    backed by Duhalde, came in second, but first-place winner
    Menem declined to take the race to the second round, thereby
    handing NK a victory with only 22% of the vote.) Reutemann
    explained that even though NK is no longer PJ party president
    (he resigned the day after the FpV's midterms defeat), the
    Kirchners can still play a decisive role in picking the next
    PJ presidential candidate, given their influence over Buenos
    Aires Province Governor Daniel Scioli, the new party
    president. The Kirchners also have a staunch ally in Hugo
    Moyano, secretary general of the General Workers
    Confederation (CGT) and the PJ's second vice-president,
    Reutemann added. In addition, Reutemann noted the government
    retains the economic power and is "betting on an economic
    revival this year."

    ¶8. (C) As for the aspirations of the country's PJ Governors,
    Reutemann said it would be an uphill battle for Scioli to
    refloat his presidential candidacy, given that he is so
    closely tied to NK. Reutemann thought that, despite popular
    belief, Chaco Governor Jorge Capitanich (the PJ's first vice
    president, who is seen by some as a potential Kirchnerista
    presidential candidate) is eyeing a second run at the
    Governorship and not the presidency. He shrugged
    non-committaly when the CDA asked about the presidential
    prospects of other PJ governors, such as Salta's Urtubey, San
    Juan's Gioja, and Chubut's Das Neves.

    A Government in Denial
    ----------------------

    ¶9. (C) Reutemann remarked that the Government has
    misinterpreted the June midterms and the message of their
    electoral defeat. As an example, Reutemann referred to
    recent remarks by NK and Senate FpV bloc leader Miguel
    Pichetto that the June midterms indicate the people want the
    government "to deepen the model" and "to continue with the
    same direction." Reutemann mused that the more the press
    emphasizes the Kirchners' loss -- i.e. that 70% did not vote
    for the government -) the more adversely the Kirchners
    react.

    ...And Seeking a Rebound
    ------------------------

    ¶10. (C) Reutemann asserted that the Kirchners want to regain
    the initiative after the FpV's loss in the June midterms. He
    cited as recent examples: congressional approval of a
    one-year extension of numerous legislative powers delegated

    to the Executive Branch, GoA acquisition of the concession to
    televise soccer games (ref E), and the submission to
    Congress, after a 90-day public review, of the controversial
    audiovisual bill (ref C). He said such victories reenergize
    NK, who returns to the center of the ring to "pound his
    chest" and seeks "to discipline" the country's influential
    governors. He added that NK is angry with the farm sector,
    which he suspects of "coup mongering" and of using the
    conflict to better position themselves in government. He
    noted that the farm sector now has three national deputies in
    Congress. In addition, he said Argentine Agrarian Federation
    (FAA) President Eduardo Buzzi wants to be Governor of Santa
    Fe Province while Entre Rios province FAA leader Alfredo
    D'Angeli is angling for the Entre Rios Governorship.

    UNASUR Conference in Bariloche
    ------------------------------

    ¶11. (C) Reutemann asked the CDA for his views on the August
    28 UNASUR Conference hosted by Argentina in Bariloche. The
    CDA relayed that WHA DAS Chris McMullen visited Argentina
    just before the summit to address GOA concerns regarding the
    USG's Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with Colombia on
    the use of its military bases ahead of the conference (ref
    D). Drawing from guidance, the CDA noted the DCA's focus on
    assisting the GOC with its internal security problems and on
    non-intervention and sovereignty. He added that the U.S.
    Congress had earlier capped the number of U.S. troops
    stationed in Colombia at any given time at 800, and that the
    average number of troops on the ground is 250.

    Views of the United States
    --------------------------

    ¶12. (C) Reutemann, who relayed that he is planning upcoming
    travel to the United States, said he is a fan of the United
    States. He knows it well, having travelled all over the
    country to participate in Formula One races (he won races in
    Long Beach and Watkins Glen). Tweaking his compatriots, he
    said that Argentines in polls consistently express highly
    negative opinions of the United States, yet at the same time
    identify the United States as the country they most want
    Argentina to emulate. Reutemann opined that NK, as
    President, fueled anti-Americanism by exploiting it for his
    political benefit. He added now the CFK administration wants
    to strengthen relations with President Obama's
    administration, but seems unsure about how to do so. CDA
    replied that such an interest on CFK's part provides an
    opportunity to improve bilateral relations.

    Bio Data
    --------

    ¶13. (SBU) Reutemann's political career started after he
    retired from Formula One racing in 1982. In 1991, former
    President Carlos Menem backed his nomination for Santa Fe
    governor. Reutemann served as Santa Fe governor for two
    terms (1991-1995 and 1999-2003) and as national senator
    (1995-1999 and 2003-2007), where he served as the Foreign
    Affairs Committee President. Since 1991, he has held a
    number of PJ party positions and was a member of the
    constitutional reform convention in 1994. Born in the city
    of Santa Fe on April 12, 1942, the Senator is married and has
    two daughters.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶14. (C) Informal in style, low-key, and reserved, Reutemann
    is by all accounts a different breed of Argentine politician.
    He also openly admires the United States. Despite the
    enthusiasm among many in the PJ ranks for his candidacy,
    Reutemann appears conflicted about running and worried about
    the challenges that will face Argentina's next president.
    (The other leading 2011 presidential contender, Vice
    President Julio Cobos, recently shared the same misgivings
    with CDA -- ref F.) History may repeat itself, with
    Reutemann again seeing something he does not like.
    Alternatively, his reluctance to announce a presidential bid
    may simply reflect an instinct for self-preservation. He has
    been quoted to say that Nestor Kirchner is "sinking the
    Peronists" and their chances of winning in 2011. He may also
    be calculating that a premature announcement will
    unnecessarily expose him to protracted fire from Kirchner and
    other presidential aspirants.
    KELLY

`