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### Viewing cable 09SANAA2070, SAUDI STRIKES IN YEMEN: AN INVITATION TO IRAN --

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09SANAA2070 | 2009-11-16 14:02 | 2010-12-03 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Sanaa
Appears in these articles: www.spiegel.de

`

    VZCZCXRO9247
    RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHYN #2070/01 3201451
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    R 161451Z NOV 09
    FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3210
    INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
    RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 1703
    RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 002070

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
    TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL SA YM
    SUBJECT: SAUDI STRIKES IN YEMEN: AN INVITATION TO IRAN --
    AND THE U.S.?

    REF: SANAA 2053

    Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Saudi airstrikes on the Yemeni border
    continue but have not managed to clear the area of Houthi
    rebels. Yemeni journalists and the Houthis report Saudi
    strikes are hitting Yemeni targets, claims that are denied by
    the ROYG and SAG. Multiple media sources report the Saudi
    Navy is imposing a blockade on ports along northern Yemen's
    Red Sea coast. As Yemen's neighbors rush to offer the ROYG
    additional weapons and munitions, Iranian officials denounce
    the Saudi strikes and are calling for Islamic states to
    defend innocent Shi'a from ROYG and SAG attacks. Yemeni
    analysts fear that military action by Saudi Arabia is
    creating a regional, sectarian war that will lead to direct
    Iranian involvement. It is also possible that the Houthis
    have sought to internationalize the conflict, either to
    attract international support or to ensure that any
    negotiated political solution would include international,
    not ROYG, mediators. President Saleh appears to have gained
    the most from recent developments, as he has finally obtained
    direct political, financial, and military support for the war
    from powerful neighbors -- who also happen to be close U.S.
    allies. END SUMMARY.

    Saudi strikes and clashes intensify
    -----------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Saudi airstrikes on the Yemeni border continue, but
    have not managed to clear the area of Houthi rebels. On
    November 14, Houthi fighters reportedly killed two Saudi
    soldiers and injured five others in the Jebel al-Dukhan area,
    which reportedly had come under Saudi control days earlier.
    Though the ROYG and SAG deny it, the Houthis claim Saudi
    bombardment of Yemeni territory continued November 12-15,
    including in Malahit, Shada, Hasamah, and Haydan districts.
    Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam told AFP on November 13
    that Saudi bombing reached up to 60 kilometers inside Yemeni
    territory.xxxxx told
    PolOff xxxxx that the KSA is "hitting targets in
    Yemen." Both xxxxx and xxxxx,
    pointed out that Saudi officials have announced their
    government's intention of establishing a "buffer zone" by
    pushing the Houthis dozens of kilometers away from the
    border. To achieve this goal, they argue, SAG would have to
    bomb targets inside Yemen. According to Yemeni press, Saudi
    newspaper al-Riyad reported that Houthi spokesman Abdulsalam
    was killed in a November 15 Saudi airstrike on the Houthis'
    media center in Razeh district )- a district that is inside
    Yemeni territory.

    Saudi ships patrolling off yemeni coast
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶3. (S/NF) Meanwhile, multiple media reported that Saudi
    Arabia imposed a blockade on ports along northern Yemen's Red
    Sea coast to prevent arms smuggling to the Houthis.
    (Comment: These accounts of a blockade appear exaggerated, as
    analysts question whether the Saudi Navy could physically
    enforce one. End Comment.) However, the DATT reports the
    Yemeni Coast Guard reached an agreement with the Saudi Navy
    to blockade Midi Port. The two nations' maritime forces are
    communicating about their anti-smuggling efforts, but it is
    not clear to what extent, nor if their efforts are being
    coordinated. (Comment: The maritime forces' activities are
    presumably a reaction to the October 25 seizure of an
    Iranian-crewed ship off the coast of Yemen's Midi Port that
    was allegedly smuggling arms to the Houthis. The ROYG has
    yet to produce evidence that Iranians were smuggling arms to
    the Houthis, as the ship was apparently empty when it was
    seized. However, echoing a claim Yemen Ambassador al-Hajjri
    made recently, Foreign Minister Qirbi told PolChief on
    November 15 the fact that the ship was empty indicated the
    arms had already been delivered. End Comment.)

    Neighbors rush to aid the royg
    ------------------------------

    ¶4. (S/NF) Across the region, governments are rushing to aid
    the ROYG in its battle against the Houthis. The Saudis have
    agreed to provide the ROYG with APCs, weapons, and ammunition
    and to assist in the purchase of helicopters for the Yemeni
    Air Force. The SAG is also offering to purchase weapons and
    ammunition from the Czech Republic and Slovakia, while the
    UAE has agreed to broker a similar deal with Bulgaria

    Sanaa 00002070 002 of 003

    (reftel). Official media reported that the Kuwaiti
    Ambassador to Yemen met with Minister of Interior Rashad
    al-Masri on November 15 to discuss security cooperation,
    presumably related to the war in Sa'ada.

    Iranian indignation
    -------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) On November 15, the Iranian parliament condemned
    Saudi interference in the conflict and denounced the "killing
    (of) Yemeni people by Saudi Arabian fighter jets." In its
    statement, the Majlis urged "all sympathetic officials in the
    Islamic world ... to utilize all their potential to stop this
    tragedy and put an end to the killings," according to Tehran
    Mehr News Agency. The Yemen Post reported on November 15
    that the Speaker of Iran's Shura Council, Ali Larijani,
    accused the US and Saudi Arabia of targeting Shi'ite rebels
    in Yemen. In a statement posted on the Council's website, he
    said the USG was an accomplice in the attacks against the
    Houthis. Meanwhile, ROYG officials repeated their
    accusations that Iran is funding the Houthis. In a November
    15 al-Jazeera interview, General Yahya Saleh, the Qident's
    nephew anQmmander of the Central Security Forces
    Counter-Terrorism Unit, said there is "no doubt" Iran is
    supporting the Houthis )- "the Houthis cannot fund and fight
    this war with pomegranates and grapes or drugs," he said.

    Houthis: "u.s. Plan to silence us"
    ----------------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) The Houthis are also accusing the USG of
    involvement in efforts to subdue them. On November 15,
    Hizballah's al-Manar TV aired a telephone intervQwith
    Houthi spokesman Abdulsalam in which he said the Saudis had
    been compelled to strike the Houthis after the ROYG failed to
    implement the "U.S. plan" to silence and subjugate the
    Houthis. He said the allegations that the Houthis
    infiltrated Saudi Arabia are nothing more than a pretext to
    justify a "U.S.-Yemeni security plan" to prolong the war.
    (Comment: This may refer to false reports in the official
    Yemeni media that the USG and ROYG signed a military
    agreement at the November 10-12 joint staff talks. While
    Post issued a statement clarifying that no such agreement was
    signed, the initial report, implying that the agreement will
    aid Yemen's battle against the Houthis, was picked up by
    Iran's Press TV and even Voice of America. End Comment.)

    Implications of regionalization,
    fears of saudi over-reaction
    ----------------------------

    ¶7. (C) Yemeni analysts believe Saudi involvement is creating
    a regional sectarian war that will serve as an invitation to
    Iranian involvement.xxxxx, told the Ambassador on November 15 that
    Sa'ada residents are increasingly seeing the conflict as a
    religious one and believe that the Houthis achieve
    battlefield victories because God is on their side. He added
    that Saudi Arabia's involvement is only encouraging the
    Houthis and their supporters to see the conflict in sectarian
    terms. He claimed the situation in Sa'ada is as bad as it is
    because the religious factor helps the Houthis garner support
    from the local population; by sharpening that aspect of the
    conflict, Saudi involvement could mobilize additional support
    for the Houthis, he concluded. Moreover, xxxxx
    believes the Houthis might begin supporting Zaydis on the
    Saudi side of the border, home to an estimated 2,000 Zaydi
    Saudis. While they may not share the same grievances as
    Zaydis in northern Yemen, if the conflict becomes
    increasingly sectarian, Saudi Zaydis may find a new champion
    in the Houthis, and the Houthis may find a new base of
    support among the Saudi population. Furthermore, Qadhi told
    PolOff on November 15 there is growing sentiment among
    Iranians that they "should not leave Yemen's Shi'a alone to
    face aggression from the Saudi and Yemeni governments."

    ¶8. (C) xxxxx fears that the guerrilla nature of the
    war, in which small groups of Houthi fighters familiar with
    the rugged terrain launch sneak attacks at a mighty foe,
    could provoke the Saudis into over-reacting and causing
    serious harm to civilians caught in the crossfire. Saudi
    Arabia is using state-of-the-art weaponry against the
    Houthis, but in more than a week of heavy bombings apparently
    have not been able to clear them from the area. xxxxx says
    if the "little brat in the neighborhood" can continue to

    Sanaa 00002070 003 of 003

    capture and kill Saudi soldiers, the KSA may not react
    rationally and may begin targeting villages, markets, and
    other civilian gathering places in order to root out the
    insurgents.

    Houthi gambit?
    --------------

    ¶9. (C) What prompted the SAG's involvement in the war is a
    subject of considerable speculation in Yemen. While
    President Saleh has long been encouraging Saudi Arabia to
    join the fight, most analysts believe the Houthis had reason
    to provoke their involvement as well. xxxxx thinks the
    Houthis attacked the Saudi border guards in order to
    internationalize the conflict. "Maybe they drew in Saudi
    Arabia because they wanted to negotiate with the master
    rather than the servant," he told PolOff on November 15.
    Havez al-Bukari, President of Yemen Polling Center, agrees
    that the Houthis wanted to draw Saudi Arabia into the
    conflict in order to get more attention from the
    international community. According to Bukari, by
    internationalizing the conflict, the Houthis' demands for
    international mediation )- which the ROYG has refused,
    insisting that any negotiations will be handled domestically
    -) become much stronger. He believes the Houthis want a
    foreign government or international body to broker dialogue
    between the ROYG and the Houthis, since previous peace talks
    were predominantly internal affairs. They want a "partner"
    in the talks, not a "sponsor" of them, as he characterized
    Qatar's role in mediating the 2008 Doha peace accord.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶10. (S/NF) The ROYG and the Houthis both stand to gain from
    expanding the conflict beyond Yemen's borders: the ROYG
    benefits from the military and financial might of its
    powerful northern neighbor, while the Houthis are better
    positioned to receive overt Iranian backing or to spur some
    sort of international political settlement. Yet the benefit
    to Saudi Arabia seems less clear. While the need to protect
    its border is obvious, the airstrikes could backfire in a
    number of ways. First, the SAG risks becoming embroiled in
    an intractable guerrilla war. Second, Saudi involvement
    fuels the ROYG's perception that the real, immediate threat
    to the Arabian Peninsula is the Houthis, not al-Qaeda.
    Third, as noted reftel, by transferring millions of dollars
    worth of weapons to the ROYG, there is a strong chance the
    very same weapons will leak into the gray market and end up
    being used against Saudi Arabia by terrorists. Fourth, it
    invites Iranian involvement )- which creates a
    self-fulfilling prophecy, since the fear that Iran was at
    Saudi's doorstep is partly what motivated the strikes in the
    first place.

    ¶11. (S/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED. In the short-term at least,
    it seems like President Saleh has gained the most from the
    Saudis' entry into the conflict. His glee when the Saudis
    launched their airstrikes indicates he finally received what
    he has been pushing for )- political, financial, and direct
    military support for the war from Yemen's powerful neighbor
    and principal benefactor. He will use this support to battle
    the Houthis as well as to send a signal of the regime's
    staying power to other domestic actors who may seek to
    undermine it. Saleh will not rest with Saudi support,
    however, and will doubtlessly rely on the SAG to advocate
    some measure of USG involvement, given our strong ties to
    Riyadh. END COMMENT.
    Seche

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