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### Viewing cable 07MADRID1287, SPAIN: FORMER PRESIDENT AZNAR ON SPANISH POLITICS,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07MADRID1287 | 2007-07-02 11:11 | 2010-12-03 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Madrid

`

    VZCZCXRO0914
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHMD #1287/01 1831141
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 021141Z JUL 07
    FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2903
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
    RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS 3943
    RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT 0240
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 5219
    RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0112
    RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0641
    RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 6029
    RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 2861
    RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0206

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 001287

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2017
    TAGS: PGOV PREL SP
    SUBJECT: SPAIN: FORMER PRESIDENT AZNAR ON SPANISH POLITICS,
    WESTERN SAHARA, AFGHANISTAN, LEBANON, AND LATIN AMERICA

    REF: MADRID 1276

    MADRID 00001287 001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: Ambassador Eduardo Aguirre for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary. Former Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar
    told the Ambassador on June 28 that he viewed with great
    concern the "malignant affect" that the Zapatero government's
    policies were having on Spain, and he was dismayed to see the
    Spanish nation slowly eroding as more power continued to
    devolve to Catalonia and the Basque region. Aznar confided
    to the Ambassador that if he saw his country descend to
    extremely dire straits, he would consider "stepping back in,"
    evidently implying that he would seek to return to leadership
    of the Popular Party. Aznar said that he and the current
    leadership of the Popular Party had been surprised by that
    day's announcement by IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato that
    he would step down this fall and return to Spain to spend
    more time with his family. On North Africa, Aznar admonished
    the U.S. for its current efforts to work with Morocco to
    solve the Western Sahara issue and said that this was a "bad
    idea." The Ambassador expressed condolences for the six
    Spanish soldiers killed recently in Lebanon and said the USG
    hoped the GOS would still fulfill its commitments both in
    that country and in Afghanistan. Aznar replied that Zapatero
    was weak and would cave to political pressure to reduce
    Spain's presence. The Ambassador urged that the PP refrain
    from complicating Spanish deployments in Afghanistan and
    Lebanon, given the strategic importance of those missions.
    Aznar replied that the PP had never pressured Zapatero on
    either deployment and would not do so in the future. The
    former President concluded the meeting by giving his views of
    the current situation in Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia. End
    Summary.

    //AZNAR ON RATO'S RETURN AND THE "DETERIORATION OF SPAIN"//

    ¶2. (C) Ambassador and Mrs. Aguirre hosted former Spanish
    President Jose Maria Aznar and his wife Ana Botella to a June
    28 dinner at the residence. President Aznar said that he had
    just come from a meeting at his FAES think tank that was
    attended by current Popular Party (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy
    and most of the PP leadership. Aznar said that he and other
    PP members had been surprised by that day's announcement by
    IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato that he would step down
    this fall and return to Spain to spend more time with his
    family. (Comment: Rato was Minister of the Economy in
    Aznar's government and rumors have circulated in Spain that
    Rato might make a strong running mate for Rajoy in Spain's
    national elections next year. Spanish press on June 29
    reported that Rato provided advanced notice of his
    resignation only to Rajoy. End Comment). Aznar said he was
    aware that Rato had become bored with his position at the IMF
    and yearned to return to Spain, and he believes that Rato may
    now assume a leading position in Spain's private sector.

    ¶3. (C) Aznar told the Ambassador that Spain was currently in
    the hands of a very bad government whose policies were
    "malignantly affecting" the fabric of the country. Aznar
    views with great concern the continued devolution of power to
    Catalonia and the Basque region that is "slowly eroding
    Spain," as well as Zapatero's insistence on dredging up
    Spain's Civil War past. The Ambassador asked Aznar what his
    role would be if, in the former President's view, the
    Zapatero government continued to pursue policies deleterious
    to Spain, and Rajoy and the PP failed to gain any ground.
    Aznar responded that, "if I saw that Spain was really in
    despair, I may have to step back in to national politics."
    Aznar said that he could accept a Socialist government in
    Spain, but not this President and not this government. Aznar
    posited that the recently completed regional and local
    elections had been essentially a draw, and said that it was
    nearly impossible to predict what would happen in national
    elections that must be held by March 2008. Aznar said that
    the PP's biggest threat was voter apathy, as most Spanish
    citizens are complacently content with their personal
    economic situation, and that only a "major event" could shake
    the Spanish out of their lethargy. During the dinner, the
    Ambassador gave Aznar several opportunities to comment on the
    strengths of current PP leader Rajoy, but the President
    offered only lukewarm support for his successor.

    //ADMONITION ON WESTERN SAHARA//

    MADRID 00001287 002.2 OF 002

    ¶4. (C) Aznar told the Ambassador that the U.S. should cease
    its efforts to work with Algeria and Morocco to find a
    solution to the problems in Western Sahara. Aznar stated
    flatly that recent U.S. policy to move closer to Morocco on
    this issue was a "bad idea." The former President's opinion
    was that the U.S. would make concessions to Morocco and offer
    assistance, but then Morocco would "misuse these things."

    //LEBANON AND AFGHANISTAN//

    ¶5. (C) The Ambassador expressed condolences for the six
    Spanish soldiers killed on June 24 in Lebanon and said he
    hoped the GOS would still fulfill its commitments both in
    that country and in Afghanistan. The Ambassador said it is
    vital for Spain to maintain a united front on key strategic
    issues such as these. Aznar replied that Zapatero was weak
    and would cave to political pressure to reduce Spain's
    presence in overseas deployments. The Ambassador replied
    that much of the political pressure on Zapatero in regards to
    Spanish deployments was in fact coming from the PP itself
    (REFTEL). Aznar denied that the PP had put political
    pressure on Zapatero to reduce Spain's commitment to its
    overseas deployments, the PP only wanted Zapatero to better
    explain the nature of the deployments to the Spanish people.
    He said the PP would not pressure the GOS on this in the
    future either.

    //LATIN AMERICA//

    ¶6. (C) President Aznar briefly provided the Ambassador with
    his view on select Latin American countries. He said that
    Foreign Minister Moratinos' April visit to Havana was
    "predictable," as current Spanish leaders are "sympathetic to
    Castro, Communism, and this type of left-wing government."
    Aznar had just completed a trip to Mexico and believes that
    President Calderon is doing a "credible job." Aznar said
    Calderon admitted to having completely misjudged the depth
    and breadth of corruption in Mexico and that the pervasive
    influence of narcotics in the country was beyond
    comprehension. Turning to Colombia, Aznar said that
    President Uribe needs U.S. assistance and that recent U.S.
    Congressional actions to alter assistance to that country
    would do long-term damage to both U.S. and Colombian
    interests.

    ¶7. (C) Comment. Aznar's lack of enthusiasm for his
    hand-picked successor, Rajoy, was noteworthy. Aznar never
    really left Spanish politics, but a public decision to resume
    a political career would likely reignite the pitched battle
    generated by the nature of the PP's loss following the March
    11, 2004 terrorist attacks. Aznar clearly is troubled by
    what he believes is happening in Spain and may have doubts
    that Rajoy is the man to return the PP to power. Although
    Rajoy and the current PP leadership trumpeted the results of
    regional elections, Aznar believes that it was a draw. The
    PP is confident heading into national elections, but a
    positive outcome is far from assured. If Rajoy cannot return
    his party to national power, individuals such as Rodrigo
    Rato, Madrid Mayor Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon, and perhaps former
    President Aznar may be waiting in the wings.
    AGUIRRE

`