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### Viewing cable 09ISTANBUL399, IRAN-TURKEY COMMERCE: AN "INSIDER" SAYS ITS ALL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09ISTANBUL399 | 2009-10-19 06:06 | 2010-12-29 21:09 | SECRET | Consulate Istanbul

`

    VZCZCXRO3102
    PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
    DE RUEHIT #0399/01 2920628
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    P 190628Z OCT 09
    FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9287
    INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000399

    SIPDIS

    LONDON FOR MURRAY; BERLIN FOR ROSENSTOCK-STILLER; BAKU FOR
    MCCRENSKY; BAGHDAD FOR POPAL; ASHGABAT FOR TANGBORN; DUBAI
    FOR IRPO

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2029
    TAGS: ECON
    SUBJECT: IRAN-TURKEY COMMERCE: AN "INSIDER" SAYS ITS ALL
    WHO YOU KNOW

    REF: A. (A) ISTANBUL 279 (NODIS
    ¶B. NOTAL) (B) ISTANBUL 336 (C) ISTANBUL 394

    Classified By: Deputy Principal Officer Win Dayton; Reason 1.5 (d)

    ¶1. (S) Summary: A Turkish businessman who deals extensively
    in Iran told us that the only way to do business there safely
    is through an Iranian partner with high-level regime
    connections, in his case a partner he claims is connected to
    the son of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Our contact cautioned
    that two state-owned Turkish banks -- Halk and Ziraat -- are
    exploring opening up branch offices in Tehran to give Turkish
    businesses a banking option other than Bank Mellat. Our
    contact is working with the Tehran municipality to open a new
    shopping mall, which has brought him into close contact with
    Tehran Mayor Qalibaf's staff. Those interlocutors told him
    that Qalibaf is already setting himself up to be the
    establishment's choice for president in 2013. Our contact
    also urged the USG to "make a deal" with Iran soon, because
    "time is running out", hinting that Khamenei's health is a
    concern, and that the succession of a new Leader could lead
    to a period of instability inconducive to engagement between
    Iran and the U.S. Comment: We cannot confirm the veracity
    of our contact's claims that his business partner is close to
    the Khamenei family, but that Iranian partner's claims are at
    least plausible. We also have no basis to judge his claims
    of failing health on the part of Supreme Leader Khamenei,
    beyond having heard similar rumors from other contacts. We
    give serious credence to our contact's claim that for a
    foreign company to do business effectively in Iran, it needs
    to have a regime-affiliated partner or protector working on
    its behalf within the system. End summary.

    An insider's perspective
    ----------------------

    ¶2. (C) We met recently with Keyhan Ozdemir (please strictly
    protect), a director of Pars-Invest, a Turkish company with
    construction, real estate, and energy investments in Iran.
    Ozdemir claims to have Iranian business partners with direct
    connections to Supreme Leader Khamenei's family, including an
    Iranian business partner who claims a close personal
    connection to Khamenei's son Mojtaba. Ozdemir does not
    participate in Turkish business-sponsored conferences or
    trade fairs with Iranian counterparts, such as the early
    October Turkey-Iran Business Council (TIBC) conference (ref
    C), dismissing them as "window dressing". Instead, he
    candidly asserted to us that to get deals done in Iran a
    foreign company needs a well-connected Iranian "protector",
    preferably a partner with IRGC or Supreme Leader connections.
    Reinforcing that point, Ozdemir explained that the
    Turkey-Iran commerce has slowed down considerably in 2009 in
    large part for three reasons, two political and one economic:
    (1) Most Turkish companies, which are not politically
    "plugged-in" inside Iran, drew back from Iranian investment
    following the June elections out of fear of political risk.
    "These are the companies that need trade associations like
    the TIBC to make introductions for them." (2) Turkish
    companies that had been well connected to former President
    Rafsanjani's business empire have been edged out since June
    by IRGC companies and by IRGC-affiliated Bonyads
    (politically-connected charitable foundations that act as
    holding companies), and (3) Turkey's investment of Iranian
    hydrocarbons has been down significantly in 2009. On the
    other hand, Ozdemir concurs with the conventional wisdom that
    Turkey-Iran trade will increase in the remainder of 2009 and
    into 2010. He says he is optimistic that his own biggest
    pending deal -- to develop a modern shopping mall in Tehran
    -- will soon receive funding approval from the Tehran
    municipality, reflective of the Iranian economy's resiliency
    even in hard times.

    ¶3. (C) The key sector to watch, according to Ozdemir, is the
    banking sector, as Turkish-Iran trade cannot expand
    significantly without more efficient banking cooperation.
    Ozdemir told us that Turkish state-owned banks Halk and
    Ziraat have been quietly seeking Turkish and Iranian
    government permission to open bank branch offices in Tehran.
    (Halk and Ziraat already have small "representative offices"
    in Tehran, he claimed, but these offices do not perform
    banking functions.) The primary function would be to offer
    banking services to Turkish companies and investors in Iran,
    to give them a banking option other than Bank Mellat, the
    lone Iranian bank that operates in Turkey. According to
    Ozdemir, the GoT has cautioned Halk and Ziraat to "go slow"
    until it becomes more clear whether international diplomacy
    with Iran succeeds or fails, and thus whether the risk of
    significantly tougher banking sanctions on Iran lessens or

    ISTANBUL 00000399 002 OF 002

    increases. Most of Ozdemir's deals in Iran are paid in
    Euros, as "Iranians prefer Euros to (Turkish) Lira and Turks
    definitely don't want (Iranian) Rials."

    ¶4. (C) Regarding Iran's approach to privatization, Ozdemir
    asserted that privatizing certain sectors is a genuine
    priority for Khamenei, though he does not want to push the
    bureaucracy (including the IRGC) too hard. According to
    Ozdemir, Khamenei is willing to continue to push for
    so-called privatization in the petrochemical industry,
    electricity production and distribution, transportation,
    "some" shipping and banking, and some Bonyads. But Ozdemir
    underscored that Khamenei is committed to keeping the
    telecommunications and hydrocarbon sectors is "safe hands."
    The chief problem is that Iranian decision-makers "don't
    understand what privatization means." Selling a state-run
    bank or a telecommunications company to a holding company
    that itself is controlled by regime entities (per ref C) "is
    not privatization." Ozdemir said that Tehran Mayor Qalibaf,
    alone among Iran's top leadership, understands and supports
    the western concept of privatization and the need for Iran to
    have a stronger private sector.

    Qalibaf already running for 2013 Presidential elections
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶5. (C) From discussions with Tehran municipality officials
    reporting directly to Tehran Mayor Qalibaf, Ozdemir assessed
    that Qalibaf is already in full campaign mode for the 2013
    Iranian Presidential election. Qalibaf is actively
    maneuvering behind the scenes to lock in support from Supreme
    Leader Khamenei, and indeed Qalibaf's decision not to run in
    the June election this year was based on an unspoken
    understanding that staying out this time would position him
    well to be the establishment's preferred choice next time.
    According to Ozdemir, Qalibaf is using the benefits of his
    office to build a sizable war-chest of campaign funds, though
    he is careful to ensure that his and his staff's "energetic"
    collection of such funds does not adversely impact Tehran's
    municipal services or other operations, or his reputation as
    an effective manager.

    "Time is Running Out" to make a deal with Khamenei
    --------------------------------------------- -----

    ¶6. (C) Turning to a brief discussion of current diplomacy
    vis-a-vis Iran, Ozdemir urged the USG to "make a deal" with
    Iran soon, because "time is running out". He hinted that
    Ayatollah Khamenei's health is a concern. Khamenei wants to
    ensure a smooth succession for his son, Mojtaba, to succeed
    him, but Ozdemir assessed that the installation of a new
    Supreme Leader in Iran, if it becomes necessary in the coming
    year or two, could lead to a period of instability that would
    be inconducive to engagement between Iran and the U.S.

    Comment
    ------

    ¶7. (S) We cannot confirm the veracity of Ozdemir's claim
    that his Iranian business partner is personally close to
    Mojtaba Khamenei, although we have met that Iranian business
    partner (ref A) and can confirm that his claims to a Khamenei
    family connection are at least plausible. We also have no
    basis to judge Ozdemir's claims of failing health on the part
    of Supreme Leader Khamenei, beyond having heard similar
    rumors from other contacts (Ref B). We give serious credence
    to Ozdemir's claim that for a foreign company to do business
    effectively in Iran, it must have a regime-affiliated partner
    or protector working on its behalf within the system.

    WIENER

`