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### Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES2215, LEADING CENTER-RIGHT ARGENTINE OPPOSITION LEADER MAURICIO MACRI ON KIRCHNER AND THE 2007 ELECTIONS REF: BUENOS AIRES 01901 Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BUENOSAIRES2215 | 2006-09-28 21:09 | 2011-02-21 05:05 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Buenos Aires

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    VZCZCXRO3958
    PP RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHQU RUEHTM RUEHVC
    DE RUEHBU #2215/01 2712113
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 282113Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6074
    INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
    RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 1734

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002215SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO NSC FOR DAN FISK TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR

    SUBJECT: LEADING CENTER-RIGHT ARGENTINE OPPOSITION LEADER MAURICIO MACRI ON KIRCHNER AND THE 2007 ELECTIONS REF: BUENOS AIRES 01901 Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

    ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: On September 26, Charge and Poloff met with leading center-right political leader Mauricio Macri and
    longtime Macri associate and local businessman, Nicolas
    Caputo.  Macri voiced his criticisms of President Nestor
    Kirchner's policies and spoke at length about next year's
    national elections.  Despite his strong criticisms of
    Kirchner, Macri noted that the GOA's fiscal discipline was a
    positive change compared to past governments, and he admitted
    that the projected continued strength of the economy over the
    next year meant that Kirchner would likely win reelection.
    Although Macri felt it would be difficult to beat Kirchner in
    2007, he was optimistic about the long-term prospects of his
    Republican Proposal (PRO) political alliance.  Macri said he
    was still undecided on which office he would run for in the
    2007 elections.  Although he did not rule out an eventual
    alliance with former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, he
    felt that he and Lavagna had little in common.  END SUMMARY.
     ¶2.  (C) On September 26, Charge and Poloff met with leading
    center-right political leader Mauricio Macri and longtime
    Macri associate and local businessman, Nicolas Caputo.  Macri
    spoke at length about his views of President Nestor Kirchner
    and next year's national elections.  Macri was critical of
    Kirchner's policies, particularly in the foreign and economic
    policy areas.  "Argentina is not getting the investment it
    needs, especially in the energy sector.  Kirchner thinks he
    can go to New York, ring the bell at the Stock Exchange, and
    tell investors 'we didn't fulfill our promises before, but
    now you can trust us.'  It will take a lot harder work than
    that to bring investors back to Argentina.  Kirchner is
    constantly creating conflicts abroad, with our regional
    neighbors, at Mar del Plata, but the Argentine people do not
    realize how damaging this is because the government is very
    good at controlling the media." 3.  (C) Despite his strong criticisms of Kirchner, Macri noted that the GOA's fiscal discipline was a positive change compared to past governments, and he admitted that the
    projected continued strength of the economy over the next
    year meant that Kirchner would likely win reelection.
    "Kirchner understands that money equals political power, so
    he has put an emphasis on maintaining a surplus.   For the
    first time in recent memory, Argentina doesn't have to worry
    about being able to pay its bills."  Macri noted that
    although surprises were always possible, particularly with
    the crime issue, he did not foresee Kirchner having
    difficulty wining reelection in 2007. 4.  (C) Although Macri felt it would be difficult to beat Kirchner in 2007, he was optimistic about the long-term prospects of his Republican Proposal (PRO) political
    alliance.  He predicted that the economy would start to
    decline in 2008.  Macri said PRO was working to prepare its
    leaders to assume office in 2011.  "We are the first truly
    pro-market, pro-business political force in nearly 80 years
    of Argentine history that is ready to assume power."  Macri
    said that his foundation, Fundacion Creer y Crecer (Belief
    and Growth Foundation), is working with the German Konrad
    Adenhauer Foundation and the U.S. International Republican
    Institute in a leadership development program.  Nicolas
    Caputo said that many in the Foundation were getting
    restless, noting that the short-term focus of Argentine
    politics made it difficult to convince the Foundation staff
    to work for the long-term when Macri's plans for 2007 were
    still undefined. 5.  (C) Macri said his plans for 2007 were still undecided, and although he did not rule out an eventual alliance with
    former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, he felt that he and
    Lavagna had little in common.  Macri said he would not define
    his electoral plans until at least the end of the year,
    noting that Kirchner himself has not yet announced his BUENOS AIR 00002215  002 OF 002  candidacy.  Macri said that his supporters are sharply divided between those who want him to compete again to be
    Mayor of Buenos Aires and those who want him to run for
    President.  Macri said that both options presented risks.
    Macri would face a difficult race in the city against
    potential Kirchner candidates like Vice President Daniel
    Scioli and current Mayor Jorge Telerman.  Macri would almost
    certainly lose a presidential race to Kirchner, but a good
    second place showing, Macri argued, could provide a political
    base for the future.  Asked about an alliance with Lavagna,
    Macri quoted his PRO ally Ricardo Lopez Murphy, "Lavagna is a
    better mannered, more tolerant Kirchner.  I do not see much
    difference between him and Kirchner.  Moreover, I do not
    think we have much in common with those that are around
    Lavagna, like (former Presidents) Alfonsin and Duhalde."
    However, he said that he did not discard the possibility of
    an eventual accord between him and Lavagna.  Asked about
    Lopez Murphy, Macri said his alliance with him was strong,
    but noted that Lopez Murphy can sometimes be "rigid" in his
    thinking, which made discussions on potential political
    alliances difficult. 6.  (C) COMMENT: Mauricio Macri is currently the leading center-right opposition leader in Argentina.  He is one of
    the only opposition leaders who can compete toe-to-toe with
    Kirchner's potential candidates in a key electoral district,
    or make a potentially strong second place showing in a
    presidential contest with Kirchner himself.  Macri is young
    enough and has sufficient personal resources to enable him to
    compete for the long term.  As 2007 is likely to be a
    difficult year for the opposition in Argentina, opposition
    leaders will need to have this type of long-term vision to
    build for the future.  END COMMENT. MATERA

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