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### Viewing cable 08PANAMA851, ROUGH WATER FOR CANAL EXPANSION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08PANAMA851 | 2008-11-06 23:11 | 2010-12-18 12:12 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Panama

`

    VZCZCXYZ0003
    OO RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHZP #0851/01 3112328
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 062328Z NOV 08
    FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2637
    INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000851

    SIPDIS

    DEPT OF COMMERCE - MATTHEW GAISFORD
    DEPT OF TREASURY - SARA SENICH

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
    TAGS: ECON EINV ETRD MARR PM EWWT
    SUBJECT: ROUGH WATER FOR CANAL EXPANSION

    REF: 2008 PANAMA 0820

    Classified By: Ambassador Stephenson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (C) After multiple extensions to the bid deadline (now at
    March 3, 2009) and soon-to-be 19 amendments fo the contract
    for the third set of locks of the Panama Canal expansion,
    Bechtel and ACS, a Spanish led consortium, have expressed
    concern about the Panama Canal Authority's (ACP) ability to
    complete the bidding process in a fully successful manner.
    According to these two consortia, the extensions, along with
    the ACP's continuing failure to conclusively address risk
    allocation issues, have diminished confidence in a successful
    outcome to the bidding process. Additionally, while the
    Panama Canal expansion remains a high prestige project,
    members of the consortia and potential suppliers may begin to
    turn to more lucrative projects.

    ----------------------------------------
    Diminished Confidence in Bidding Process
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶2. (C) Due to repeated extensions in the bid deadline and the
    ACP's unwillingness or inability to seriously address risk
    issues, Bechtel and ACS, the two most capable prequalified
    bidding consortia, have diminished confidence in a successful
    outcome of the ACP bidding process for the contract for the
    third set of locks, centerpiece of the overall $5.25 billion
    Panama Canal expansion, according to Bechtel Vice-President
    of Finance Paul Gibbs, on October 31. See reftel for
    information on the delays, issues of risk, and consortia.
    ACS senior representatives did not attend the latest
    ACP-Consortia meeting; a meeting ACP Director of Engineering
    Quijano described as important to signaling the intentions of
    the consortia. Bechtel signaled its reluctance to pour more
    resources into the project by closing its Panama Office and
    reassigning personnel to other countries. While Bechtel
    remains intent on bidding on the locks contract it will not
    continue to prepare detailed modifications to its bid
    specifications in reaction to changing ACP requirements.
    Amendment 18 alone had 30 attachments and great uncertainty
    exists concerning the content of upcoming (and "final"
    according to the ACP) 19th Amendment.

    ¶3. (C) While Gibbs recognizes that the extension provides the
    opportunity for the ACP to iron out risk problems, that task
    has not been fully completed. Bechtel is not fully certain
    of the outcome of the hydraulic risk as well as the selection
    of a cement price index.

    ¶4. (C) Based upon conversations with representatives of
    Bechtel, ACS, and Project Management Advisor CH2MHill, these
    organizations believe that only Bechtel and ACS are credible
    bidders, because the Spanish consortium led by Sacyr is
    reportedly close to bankruptcy and half of the members of the
    French consortium led by Bouygues are not actively working
    towards submitting a bid. Gibbs stated that the deadline
    extension and uncertainty regarding risk favor Sacyr and
    Bouygues, because these "weaker consortia" are more willing
    to submit a lowball bid and accept greater risk on the
    assumption they will be able to renegotiate key issues after
    the contract is awarded.

    ------------------------------------------
    Potential Equipment Shortage due to Delays
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶5. (C) According to a Caterpillar's Regional Manager for
    Latin America E. Hopkinson on October 31, the repeated
    extensions in the bid deadline already caused suppliers to
    evaluate maintaining equipment production slots for equipment
    for the winning consortium. Caterpillar, who is pursuing
    equipment sales to the winning consortia, already reserved
    production slots for equipment to be used in the expansion.
    However, due to "lost patience" with the extensions,
    Caterpillar may instead use those production slots for large
    mining companies which are long term customers that also use
    service contracts. The prestige and resulting increased
    business of working on the Panama Canal may not outweigh
    greater business opportunities elsewhere. According to
    Hopkinson, some large excavation equipment is not currently
    available due to a worldwide shortage of equipment and parts
    caused by a mining industry that remains healthy despite
    global financial crisis.

    -------------------------------
    Control Over Project Management
    -------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) The attempt by CH2MHill, the project management
    advisor for the entire Canal expansion, to take greater
    control over the bidding process is still in flux - see
    reftel. CH2MHill's Construction Manager, Joe Cazares, is now
    the acting senior engineer-in-charge for the design and
    construction of the locks for the ACP. CH2MHill and the
    consortia positively view this change; the preference is for
    CH2MHill to take control over the bidding process and to
    produce a biddable document of interest to credible bidders.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶7. (C) The turbulence in the Panama Canal expansion bidding
    is only discussed in tight circles and is not present in the
    public domain. The messaging and press discipline of the
    Panamanians on the biggest economic story in Panama is
    stunning.
    STEPHENSON

`