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### Viewing cable 09RIYADH1667, SITREP ON SAUDI MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST THE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
09RIYADH1667 | 2009-12-24 06:06 | 2010-12-07 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Riyadh

`

    VZCZCXRO4869
    OO RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDIR
    DE RUEHRH #1667/01 3580644
    ZNY SSSSS ZZH
    O 240644Z DEC 09
    FM AMEMBASSY RIYADH
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2117
    INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
    RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 2792
    RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS IMMEDIATE 5352
    RUEHDH/AMCONSUL DHAHRAN IMMEDIATE 0398
    RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH IMMEDIATE 0506
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
    RUMICEA/USCINCCENT INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

` `

    S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 001667

    NOFORN
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019
    TAGS: MASS MOPS PREL SA YM
    SUBJECT: SITREP ON SAUDI MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST THE
    HOUTHIS, DECEMBER 23, 2009

    REF: A. SANAA 2117
    ¶B. RIYADH 1558
    ¶C. RIYADH 1570
    ¶D. RIYADH 1547
    ¶E. RIYADH 1621
    ¶F. RIYADH 1633

    RIYADH 00001667 001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: A/DCM Lisa Carle,
    1.4 (A), (B) AND (D)

    SUMMARY
    --------

    ¶1. (C) Assistant Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Sultan
    announced in a new conference yesterday (Dec. 22) that Saudi
    Arabia's main military operations in the Yemeni border area
    had ceased, that the Saudi military had full control of the
    border area, and that military activity was now focused on
    expelling remaining intruders. His statement is the first
    official indication that the fighting might be winding down;
    senior Embassy contacts in the Saudi Ministry of Defense as
    recently as yesterday were stressing the ongoing urgency of
    resupplying aircraft munitions. Prince Khalid also gave the
    first official accounting of Saudi casualties since early
    November: 73 dead, 470 wounded, and 26 missing. End Summary.

    Saudi Arabia Declares Victory
    --------------------------

    ¶2. (C) During a tour of the Saudi-Yemeni border area
    yesterday Prince Khaled Bin Sultan, Assistant Minister of
    Defense and Aviation, announced to local reporters that the
    Saudi military was now in full control of the border area and
    that its main operations had ended. "What we are doing now is
    bringing things to normal," he said, and that Saudi forces
    would remain in the area with a mission of removing any
    remaining "infiltrators." Prince Khalid also provided the
    first official accounting of Saudi casualties since early
    November: 73 dead, 470 wounded, and 26 missing. The Embassy
    has been hearing rumors circulating over the past two weeks
    that King Abdullah was increasingly upset that the military
    campaign had not been wrapped up. Thus political pressure
    may have been a factor in the timing of Prince Khalid's
    announcement, but given the gravity and urgency with which
    the Saudis viewed the challenge from the Houthis, Prince
    Khalid's announcement suggests that the Saudi leadership is
    now convinced that sufficient punishment had been inflicted
    upon the Houthis to have taught them a lesson and to put an
    end to their border harrassments.

    Is it Really Over?
    --------------

    ¶3. (S/NF) The Embassy DAO was told by senior Saudi Air Force
    officers on December 22 that Saudi fighter aircraft had
    continued to launch attack against Houthi targets in recent
    days, sustaining the high tempo that started in the second
    week of November. Saudi television was airing footage as
    recently as December 21 showing Saudi tanks and artillery
    firing in the border area, and Saudi soldiers launching
    mortars and firing machine guns. A digest of other key press
    reports from recent days is below:

    -- (U) Military Successes: Saudi media continue to report
    victories, describing in general terms how Saudi forces were
    &repelling attacks8 or &pursuing infiltrators and
    inflicting heavy losses.8 The Dec. 21 Saudi Gazette
    headline boasted of 30 infiltrators killed. Al-Sharq
    al-Awsat quoted a military source on Dec. 21 saying that
    Saudi forces successfully destroyed a series of caves that
    the infiltrators were using to store weapons and ammunition,
    but could comment no further than to say that combing
    operations continue on the ground while F-15 and Apache
    aircraft continue air raids.

    -- (U) Religious Support for Saudi Forces: Saudi Press
    Agency ) 12/18/09: The Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abulaziz
    Al-Sheikh, addressed Saudi forces saying, &Mujahedeen
    Brothers, I salute your courage ( and congratulate you on
    your Jihad for the sake of Allah. You are facing a corrupt

    RIYADH 00001667 002.2 OF 003

    and astray enemy of deviant thoughts.8 The Mufti went on to
    say that the actions of the armed forces are the highest
    deeds of Islam. (Comment: This statement of support by the
    KSA,s highest religious authority seeks to reinforce the
    message that the truest form of jihad is fighting to defend
    the nation, and to remind that those who seek to bring the
    nation down are deviant in their thoughts. End Comment.)

    -- (U) Border Security: Arab News Online ) 12/16/09:
    Normalcy Restored at Border, The Saudi military announced
    that 127,875 infiltrators and 2,206 smugglers have been
    arrested over the past six months on the Saudi-Yemeni border.
    &Saudi forces also seized a number of weapons and 14,000
    rounds of ammunition. Forces foiled attempts to smuggle 30kg
    of gunpowder and explosives, eight sticks of dynamite and
    large quantities of narcotic substances in 2,140 cars.8
    (COMMENT: The six month time period and large number of
    &infiltrators8 arrested make these statistics appear more
    closely related to routine border patrol operations than
    directly with the fight against the Houthis. This
    announcement seems intended to show strong Saudi control over
    the border, rather than make a statement about fighting
    infiltrators., End comment.)

    -- (S/NF) Report from the Houthi Side: Al-Minbar
    (pro-Houthi website) and other Houthi sources over the past
    week continued to claim that U.S. and Saudi aircraft were
    conducting airstrikes on innocent villages. Houthi sources
    report 54 Yemeni deaths from a Dec. 20 Saudi air attack and
    70 deaths from an attack on Dec. 13. These reports could not
    be verified; Yemeni officials continue to deny that any Saudi
    planes have strayed into Yemeni airspace. (Comment: a senior
    Saudi Air Force officer confirmed to the Embassy DAO that
    Saudi aircraft have been operating in northern Yemen with the
    Yemeni government's approval and facilitation.)

    (U) On Dec. 18, Al-Minbar claimed another successful Houthi
    attack on a Saudi military post in Quwwa village &expelling
    the Saudi Army and seizing its military equipment ,
    communication and surveillance devices and military vehicles
    that soldiers left behind.8 The statement on Al-Minbar went
    on to justify the Houthi attack against the Saudi forces,
    explaining &We do not aim to take control over any part of
    the Saudi territories. However, we are forced to chase the
    aggressor wherever it carries out attacks against us. This
    comes in retaliation for its continuous aggression against
    civilians in the northern governorates.8

    Iran: Still the Bogeyman?
    --------------------

    ¶4. (C) The tacit cease-fire in the Saudi-Iranian war of words
    over the Yemen border war seems to be holding. The Embassy
    saw unofficial reports on the internet earlier this week that
    Iranian Parliament Speaker Larijani might visit Riyadh today
    (The Embassy has not been able to confirm these reports.)
    Nonetheless, senior Saudi military and civilian officials
    seem to uniformly share the conviction that Iran's
    machinations are the only plausible explanation for why the
    Houthis would have engaged in a fight with the Saudis that
    they were bound to lose. Saudi military officials also point
    to the improved training and battle tactics of the Houthi,
    their deep reserves of weaponry, and several large stores of
    money discovered in Houthi areas as further compelling
    evidence of Iran's active support.

    What's Next
    ----------

    ¶5. (C) The days ahead should tell whether there is a
    significant stand down in Saudi military operations. Our
    assessment is that the Saudi Land Forces have largely
    established secure positions along the troubled area of the
    Saudi-Yemeni border and that their shooting engagements have
    for the most part trailed off into patrolling and monitoring
    operations. Saudi air operations to patrol the border and
    strike Houthi targets near the border and into Yemen will
    likely continue for days or perhaps weeks, until the Saudis
    are comfortable that Yemeni government forces have the
    capability to suppress any Houthi activity near the border.

    RIYADH 00001667 003.2 OF 003

    Lessons from the Battlefield
    -----------------------

    ¶6. (C) The last 50 days of Saudi-Houthi fighting have
    arguably been the most significant Saudi military engagements
    since the tribal battles that Abdulaziz that fought to
    establish the Saudi kingdom. The Houthi battles will be
    intensively studied in the months ahead, including how they
    revealed Saudi military shortcomings. The Saudi military,
    particularly the Air Force, resorted to the use of enormous
    firepower (despite low munitions inventories) that proved to
    be inadequately precise and minimally effective against
    fighters maneuvering and dug into rugged mountain terrain.
    Among questions that merit attention will be to what extent
    should the Saudi military restructure itself to respond to
    such asymmetrical threats, why the Saudis responded to the
    Houthi challenge as such an urgent existential threat, and
    whether the perceived inability or unwillingness of the U.S.
    to more rapidly provide emergency munitions resupply to the
    Saudis in their perceived hour of need will ramifications for
    our military to military partnership. These and related
    issues will be the focus of forthcoming Embassy analyses.
    SMITH

`