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### Viewing cable 10BERLIN157, DEFENSE MINISTER ZU GUTTENBERG REVEALS STRUGGLE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
10BERLIN157 | 2010-02-04 16:04 | 2010-11-28 18:06 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Berlin

`

    VZCZCXRO6323
    OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
    DE RUEHRL #0157/01 0351607
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 041607Z FEB 10
    FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6478
    INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000157

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020
    TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO GM AF
    SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER ZU GUTTENBERG REVEALS STRUGGLE
    WITH FM WESTERWELLE ON TROOP INCREASE FOR AFGHANISTAN

    REF: A. BERLIN 138
         ¶B. BERLIN 112

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILIP D. MURPHY. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).

    ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Defense Minister zu Guttenberg revealed in
    a February 3 meeting with Ambassador Murphy that coalition
    partner FM Westerwelle -- not the opposition Social
    Democratic Party (SPD) -- had been the single biggest
    obstacle
    to the government seeking a bigger increase in German
    troops for Afghanistan.  But even with the modest planned
    troop increase of 500 (with 350 more in reserve), zu
    Guttenberg said a restructuring of the current Bundeswehr
    presence would allow Germany to increase the number of
    soldiers involved in the training of Afghan National Army
    (ANA) by more than 1,000.  While Westerwelle has portrayed
    his skepticism about additional troops as principled, it
    was also motivated by a desire to put zu Guttenberg "in his
    place."  While the size of the troop increase is settled,
    the length of the new ISAF mandate remains open.  The
    government is hoping to have the new mandate approved by
    the Bundestag before the end of February, with significant
    (if not majority) support from the opposition SPD and
    Greens.  END SUMMARY.

    WESTERWELLE: BIGGEST OBSTACLE

    ¶2. (C) In explaining the lower-than-expected planned
    increase in the number of German troops for Afghanistan, zu
    Guttenberg told the Ambassador that Westerwelle's opening
    position in the coalition negotiations on the new mandate
    had been "not one additional soldier."  In that context, it
    had been difficult to get agreement on any increase at
    all.  (Comment: Zu Guttenberg proposed 1,500 additional
    troops at the initial January 4 mini-cabinet meeting on
    this issue.  End Comment.)

    DOING A LOT MORE WITH A LITTLE MORE

    ¶3. (C) To help justify the need for more troops, zu
    Guttenberg said he had forced the Bundeswehr to do a
    complete review of all the existing positions in
    Afghanistan, which had confirmed that some could be
    eliminated in light of the new ISAF counterinsurgency
    strategy.  He said a restructuring of the current
    Bundeswehr presence, combined with the troop increase,
    would boost the number of soldiers involved in the training
    of the Afghan National Army (ANA) from 280 to 1,400.  The
    restructuring includes turning the battalion-size quick
    reaction force based in Mazar into a "protection and
    training" battalion.  A second such battalion will be
    created in Kunduz by augmenting the existing infantry
    company there with new troops.  Zu Guttenberg reiterated
    that Germany strongly supports COMISAF's focus on
    protection of the population and partnering with the Afghan
    national security forces (ANSF), and that the German
    "trainers" (i.e., the two new maneuver battalions) will
    operate in the field with the ANSF.

    PUTTING ZU GUTTENBERG IN HIS PLACE

    ¶4. (C) While zu Guttenberg said he is avoiding public
    comment on whether the outcome of the coalition talks on
    the new mandate is a "victory" for him or Westerwelle, FDP
    Defense Policy Spokesman Elke Hoff told poloff separately
    that Westerwelle's hard line against additional troops had
    been motivated in part to "teach zu Guttenberg a lesson."
    She claimed that zu Guttenberg had been too presumptuous
    last fall in making speeches in Canada and the U.S. about
    how Germany would significantly increase its troop
    contribution to ISAF.  He might have been able to get
    agreement on a higher ceiling had he engaged
    parliamentarians first and showed "greater respect for the
    political process."

    OPEN QUESTION: LENGTH OF THE MANDATE

    ¶5. (C) Zu Guttenberg confirmed that the cabinet would
    formally agree on the proposed new ISAF mandate February 9
    and that the first reading in the Bundestag would be
    February 10.  FM Westerwelle is scheduled to speak on
    behalf of the government in introducing the proposed
    mandate.  The government is aiming to hold the final
    Bundestag vote on the mandate -- following two weeks of
    committee hearings -- on February 26.  Zu Guttenberg was

    BERLIN 00000157  002 OF 002

    confident that a large number (if not a majority) of
    opposition politicians from the SPD and Greens would vote
    in favor of the new mandate.

    ¶6. (C) A February 2 meeting of state secretaries
    tentatively agreed that the new mandate should run, as is
    the custom, for one year, expiring in February 2011.  Zu
    Guttenberg indicated, however, that it might be preferable to
    stick to the length of the current mandate, which expires
    in December 2010.  He expressed concern that having the
    mandate lap over into early 2011 could lead to a premature
    debate on withdrawal, before the new strategy really had a
    chance to work.  (Comment: Another option under
    consideration -- and favored by some in the Chancellery --
    is a 18-month mandate, so that any debate on the future of
    the troop presence would be put off until the fall of
    ¶2011.  But the MFA objects that this would only raise the
    ire of the opposition and give them an excuse to oppose the
    mandate.  End Comment.)

    REASSURING THE GERMANS ON COMMAND OF THE NORTH

    ¶7. (C) Zu Guttenberg confirmed that Germany very much
    welcomed the planned inflow of U.S. forces into the north,
    especially the helicopter assets, which filled a
    long-standing shortfall.  He noted, however, that many in
    Germany question whether the U.S. will be willing to accept
    continued German leadership of RC-North in view of the
    increased U.S. presence.  Ambassador Murphy assured him
    that the U.S. had no issues working for the German command in
    the North.
    Murphy

`